Jeffery

Interestingly that parking lot is now the site of a gay pride celebration. That and Courthouse Square.

...I've been saying that a lot lately.

Apparently they celebrate the 4th of July weekend in the Northiside with some sort of rock festival? I picked up a flyer for this at Shake-It last weekend, and am curious if this is worth going to. Any of the Cincy forumers ever been?

I sort of disagree with his saying the first-cost of infrastructure is born by the Feds/State. That might have been the case in the past, but here in Daytonnati, that Austin Blvd interchange on I-75 was funded, mostly, via a TIF and special-purpose JEDD (or something similar to a JEDD), using local money, really anticipated local money due to increase in property valuation. But, yeah, you can see the numbers-based thinking of an engineer in action in these posts. He's applying engineering economics and maybe (as a subtext) a bit of systems theory, to sprawl. Some of this stuff you can see operating in the local news: ...so the system has to keep feeding /expanding to sustain itself. I think we can think of examples from our various home metro areas but here in Dayton you have suburban Centerville hitting the revenue wall, and trying to 'get well' by trying to merge (AKA annex) the surrounding unincorporated township (to get more income tax revenue), and also to annex into the next door township to facilitiate a big commercial development (to increase both property tax and income tax revenue)...even considering the local retail market is overbuilt. I'd go beyond just that infrastructure example (which is usually a low annual operating cost if one isnt doing a replacement or new construction) and say sprawl also drives increases in local government payroll. Couple sprawl with fragemented government, each wanting to provide the full panoply of services, and you start to see how payroll costs start to drive the desire for 'growth' & 'development', to subsidize pay and benefits (which also increase with time).

BDI sounds like the old "railroad boxcar loadings" stats they used to publish in the Louisville Courier-Journal, as sort of an economic inidicator.

What is the Baltic Dry Index?

I love staying in downtown Cincy. But I also love the Northside neighborhood. Getting from one to the other....since I am becoming more used to bus travel, Id like to try the Cincy transit system as a way to get up to Northside from downtown. Any recommendations on bus lines? Is there a direct (no-transfer) route up there from downtown Cincy? What's the frequency of buses on weekends on this line? Whats the fare? Id also be interested in bus lines up to, say, the UC area (vicinity of Duttenhoffers) and up to Ludlow over in Clifton. Thanks!

I will be doing one of my road trip overnights in Cincy again. Will be at the Garfield Suites hotel, so would like a good recoommendation for breakfast either downtown or OTR. Ive already been to that Crepe place on Court Street and Cafe de Paris (which is a bit of a bittersweet spot for me now), so would like some new recommendations. I will be eating out on Saturday this time, but would like a Sunday rec. too (sometimes places that might be open on Sat wouldnt be on Sun)

This might be before your time, but back in the 1980s, coming out of the early 1980s double dip recession, the assumption was that 6% to 7% range was thought to be the "new full employment". Also, as we know the unemployment number probably undercounts the true numbers out of work. But its still a good proxy for these historical discussions, on changing preceptions of "acceptable" economic performance. The so-called "new normal".

Some bad news (if you are on a fixed income or havnt got a raise in a while) Core Inflation Sees Biggest Jump in Three Years U.S. core consumer inflation rose more than expected in May to post its largest increase in nearly three years years, lifted by steep rises in motor vehicle and apparel prices. The Labor Department said Wednesday its Consumer Price Index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.3 percent, the largest gain since July 2008 .... in the 12 months to May, consumer prices rose 3.6 percent, the biggest jump since October 2008, and well above expectations for a 3.4 percent increase Ruh Roh

So, any recommendations on bike shops in Cincy that might carry those utiilty or commuter bikes that I might be interested in?

^^ Whats interesting in that chart at the link is that the decline started around 1980 and continued to drop to this day. The late 1990s improvements showing up on that chart proved to be an anomaly vs this long-term trend. But is this really a bad thing? The business of America is business, not wealth redistribution or economic equality or stuff like that. In our society when you are a winner you are a big winner....so maybe more incentive to be a winner, and make that big money....

...somewhat off-topic, but would those who are familiar with both Akron & Louisville say Highland Square is more akin to the Crescent Hill and Highland areas in Louisville? (again thinking I really need to take that road trip to Akron and Youngstown that I put off last year)

Looking at the BLS numbers. the labor force participation rate has been either flat or dropping , when we should have been in recovery. If we are in recovery we should be seeing the participation rate increasing, seeing more people of working age entering the job market. In fact the labor force participation rate has been stuck at a low, 64.2%, since January, one of the more stable runs for this stat since the mid 2000. Which seems to indicate a bottom, or a steady-state environment.

The Cleveland Fed has a look at the manufacturing sector at their website. It also includes this good chart showing how employment, in general, has been doing: ...showing the weak May in context. For manufacturing....looking at the ISM "Diffusion Index", it seems like the pattern of the recent past is that we are in a recovery...the pattern and level seems like the 2000s. ....and production is recovering.... ...but not jobs...or they are recovering very slowly. source (with commentary at the link, which is mostly analysing the manufacturing sector) So this is is going to get better. We are still around 9%. The lowest monthly rate (from the BLS) was in March, at 8.8%. Its mostly been in the 9% range even during the months of recovery. So we are in a recovery but locking into a relatively high unemployment rate (acknowleging that this undercounts numbers since it misses people who are not looking for work). Could it be that things are so dire that we think 7% unempolyment will now be considered "good"?

^ yeah, & so what? The Dems would do the same if the GOP was in power. Fact is an incumbent president is judged, in part, on the performance of the economy under his 'watch', though the economy is mostly outside of political control. This is a simplistic thing, and economc conditions and variables extend backward in time, so it is unfair. But thats the way the voters see it. The GOP is going to spin the economy against Obama, and thats just accepted politics. Clinton did it with the first Bush. But we are getting beyond the economy and into politics and there are enough politics threads here.

What happened in Chicago is somewhat unique. Around the same time the various "counties' around New York merged to form NYC as we know it...Manhattan and the "outer boroughs".....Chicago annexed its surrounding townships (Illinois has civil townships the way Ohio has). In some cases entire townships were swalloed up (Jefferson Township, which became todays NW Side). In others townships were mostly dissovled with parts incorporating and parts annexed to Chicago (i think this is what happend to Cicero Township). So a large areas of what was farmland with suburban communities strung out along rail and streetcar lines was brought into the city. There was annexation after this big "township annexation", but fairly small ones compared to that one big one. Starting in the 1890s the city grew to fill in this open space, which wasn't finally built-out until after WWII. I think with Cleveland and probably other Ohio cities, maybe even other Midwestern cities. there wasn't this same attempt at major land area annexations via annexating entire townships.

^ I'm thinking that that might be why this place is attracting foreigners? That there is a brain-drain for the reasons you state, so management might be hiring from overseas. I dont deal with engineers, programmers, etc, that much, so that world is opaque to me. Thus, I work off the numbers, not the sociology or cultural aspect of it, since I dont have any insider knowlege.

^ Im not sure where Revere Village is....there is limited bus service out south of Centerville, I know, via route 14. ...if you lived in a single family home out in a plat, or well away from the bus lines, or was in a family household, yes. For me I'm fortunate that through a fluke in zoning and development patterns, my place is directly off a highway with two bus lines. I never realized how convenient my place was for non-car owners....well, I sort of did, since my partner didnt have a car, and we did walk to Wilkies a lot back in the 1990s when it was across the street. But its really even more a reason why I dont want to live in the city, since there is so little in the city that would be open for me after work, aside from nightlife. Which is only a weekend thing for me anyway. Yes, I know the SR 725 strip is also a bar/nightclub area but nothing I'd be interested in. Yet, I do agree, that though I can walk to a lot of things, they can be long walks (particularly to the post office). If I had a bike things would speed up for me in doing short-hop errands. @@@ This weekend I again walked to DLM, but timing was off and I got there too late for the early bus 17 back south. So, to kill time I ketp walking north down Far Hills. Got as far as Rahn Road before turning back to DLM (& coffee at Boston Stoker). Doing this walk I think, if I left early enough, I could actually walk to Town & Country to go shopping at TJs (they open at 8 AM) or Kroger (open 24 hours), working in one of my longer weekend fitness hikes as a "shopping trip", and then take 17 back south. I also am more cognizant of distances and topography on foot. This area is hillier than I realized. I guess I knew this, but never really experienced it much other than via driving. Also makes me wonder what this area looked like before it was developed as suburbia. Maybe a bit like Champaigne County or Logan County, with those glacial hill belts. @@@ Anway, it was 17 back home, but there is another bus heading south... ....I could have taken 14 to the Centerville village "four corners" and walked back on 725. But that would be a longish walk with even the small amount of groceries I got (just enough to fit in a shoulder bag). Being car-lite, I find myself paying attention to "weight" and what I can carry via bags, etc. @@@ As mentioned elsewhere, I was looking for a bike on Saturday, and I did that by car (oh, the irony!). More to get the feel of whats out there. There is one more bike shop I want to visit, in the Greene (of all places). My bartender at The Century said one of the guys working there comes into the C-Bar every so often....so thats a good sign since C-Bar gets some pretty interesting folks (like me!). Goal is to get a bike, but I figure I have plenty of time to look around....and read up on this stuff. Seems there was some interesting things in Bicycle magazine on this new breed or riders out there, a breed that sounds like it might be like me, or Im onto a trend that is picking up. There is also a mag called Bicycle Times that seems more geared to "urban" biking, or "practical biking". @@@ So far I am seeing on how I can mix the car, the bus, walking/hiking, and...soon...biking into a mix of ways of getting around. Looking at "transportation" as multiple choice of options depending on weather, purpose, and my mood.

Imtersting especially when one considers the immigration numbers.

I had an indifferent experience with K&G. So far there is a place in Kettering called 'Performance Bikes" that actually seemed to have helpful help. The place in Englewood is still there, but its a real small shop that seems to specialize in repairs vs new bikes. I had a funny experience in yet another shop in Kettering, Kettering Bike Shop, on Wilmington just south of Dorothy Lane. Turns out both I and these two Dutch ladies all gravitated to the very same bike, which appeared to be the only utility bike in stock! Theye were commenting on how they used to use bikes for everything over in the Netherlands, and I said "yeah, in Germany my aunt had a bike a lot like this to get around on'.... ...so you'd expect a bidding war for this bike, huh? I figured Id just look around more and the Dutch ladies where balking at the price (and not happy about the extremely limited selection of utility bikes). I think the shops here in Dayton are not really ready for a demand for the kind of errand/utiity/commuter biking that some of us are interested in. They have excellent selections for recreational bikes, not so much for practicle utility bikes.

Agree. I am thinking more the area, not so much the city. Certain parts of the metro area are doing OK, others are stagnant or in slow decline, and the city proper is in terminal decline, despite the various little gentrification moves that are going on. Which is prettry typical for weak market cities, perhaps. Perhaps excaberated here due to cultural factors, ie, an anti-city sensibility, combined with things one sees elsewhere like poor schools and the fallout from the mortgage crisis. The immigration thing sort of shows this since Dayton has very little immigration: weak economy= weak immigration. This Brookings metric just shows the influence of a certain sector of the economy weighting the "skilled" side more here, meaning this area is attractive for foreign techies, or local companies in the Professional, Scientific & Technical sector perhaps recruit overseas more? (thinking this might have something to do with Lexis-Nexis).

That old PO was (is?) a Chicago landmark due to the Eisenhower (AKA Congress Expressway) passing right through it on its way to the lake. You are heading east on a big sunken freeway, see this tunnel into this massive building, then pass through that post office and ..bam...you are crossing the Chicago River and in the Loop, more or less, on a surface street, passing by the big stone arches of the Auditorium before hitting the open space of Grant Park. Used to be one of the great driving experiences in the city.

Great post. I can see how this historic hit happened in Dayton, with places like Drexel never really recovering from the crash. You could see how development had started up, but never really took off after the WWII era build-outs. In a city like this, that saw post WWII build-outs to satisfy wartime housing shortages, and due to mass middle class incomes due to unionized industry...the disappearance of unions and manufacturing, combined with desire to live further out in bigger houses ... are, probably, going to hit areas that used to be blue collar. The upper class---the "winners"---- in a developing two-class society will be the ones living further out, in the outer suburbs, in the Beavercreeks and Springboros, where they can insulate themselves from the enlarged underclass. So these "winner" areas will see housing prices be more stable or even increase, since these areas are gated communities but without the "gates" (or the gates being inaccesibility due to distance, no public transit, and maybe aggressive police presence....like one sees today in close-in Oakwood). ....continuing on our way to suburban dystopia.

...development happens in suburbia here, and if one is famliar enough with the metro area one can see this happening.