Jeffery

...this probably explains why a lot of rich Daytonians retire to Florida (anecdotal evidence, no stats to back that up). Except Kentucky isn't a right-to-work state and Ford is expanding operations in Louisville and Toyota located its assembly plant near Lexington, followed by other supplilers. So yeah, I guess one can have correlation without causation. I do agree labor cost/flexibility issues in the upper Midwest are one reason manufacuturing is declining there. Probably no longer the only reason. The labor cost/flexibility issue is being addressed by automation and a mix of offshoring and outsourcing (this was Delphi's strategy, to move a lot production to Mexico), so i doubt right-to-work is such a big economic development tool any more. Probably other factors are in play, too, as per that Kentucky example (Lexington...with that Toyota plant... is the fastest growing metro area in the Ohio Valley). Right-to-work is more about removing unions from the equation, but with the relatively low rates of unionization across the board (and in growth sectors like IT, professional services, FIRE, biotech, and so forth) unions are not the big deal they were in, say, the 1970s, which was the heyday of the right-to-work movement. But we are digressing from the recession discussion. I think the issue of declining revenue due to declining incomes is playing out here, sure. Also at the national level. Brookings released a great study on suburbanization of "poverty" (really more than just poverty as officially defined...more "low income"), but their data set runs only through 2007. I'll be posting on that elsewhere, but their conclusion re the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has some interesting implications: "Preliminary data show that nationally, the number of EITC recipients trended upward between 2007 and 2008, matched by an increase of about 5 percent in EITC dollars received.17 This growth in EITC receipt likely refl ects the effects of the recession’s fi rst year, in which many workers faced reduced wages and hours.18 By 2009, a spell of unemployment for the typical worker was 15.5 weeks—almost double what it was in 2007 (8.5 weeks)—and the underemployment rate reached 16.2 percent.19 As the recession deepened and spread in its second year, partial data on 2009 tax returns reveal an increase of as much as $10 billion over 2007 in EITC dollars claimed." "The increase in EITC filers and dollars in 2009 partly refl ects changes in the EITC’s eligibility parameters. Passed in February of 2009, the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) temporarily expanded eligibility and increased benefi ts for targeted groups of working families, specifi cally married couples fi ling jointly and families with three or more children. That means hundreds of thousands of families who were not previously eligible for the credit could qualify for the credit in tax years 2009 and 2010.21 Tax legislation adopted in late 2010 preserved those expanded benefi ts for 2011 as well. This means that more Americans will be able to benefi t from the economic buffer the EITC provides as the economy struggles to fi nd a fi rmer footing in a thus-far weak employment recovery." source(section IV, Discussion and Conclusions). So you can see as more people are claiming the EITC you will be taking in less money in taxes (this is at the Federal level). For the state and local levels you'd see the same phenomenon...less revenue generation (though there are no state/local versions of EITC as far as I know). So sure something is going to have to give if you want state and local budgets to balance based on an assumed lower-wage economy in Ohio.

^ Yeah, I can see the ring thing working as an abstration or diagram. In some ways this interest in...shall we say...the first wave of postwar suburbia and its fate reminds me of the old 'gray area' concept from the 1950s and 1960s.

Depends on the state. The budgets themselves are probably not overblown (in the case of Ohio), but the recession has so hit revenue that we are running a deficit. The issue is if there is a broad-based decline in incomes (lower wages and less work for most), than income tax revenue are going to drop as will sales tax revenue. If this is a permanent "reset" in the Ohio ecomomy...we are locked into lower employment numbers and lower paying jobs for most people (vs the college educated elite)... the state budget will have to be reduced accordingly, so there will have to be reductions in staff and probably services. This is if the revenue generation model is based on broad-based "living wage" middle class incomes (ie a state with a large blue-collar workforce). The way you'd make up for this shortfall without a lot of cutting is to increase the progressivity of the income tax system by increasing taxes on the top earners, since that is were the money is at. If there is an increasing bifurcation in incomes this means the top earners are going to be a) increasing in number and b) increasing in income. So the money is still in the system just that the economy is redistributing it differently. Of course the politics in this situation is that these top earners don't want to be taxed more (who does?) and have the economic and political clout to ensure their taxes won't increase. So the result is a budget deficit and reductions in state governement to match them. We are talking about the "state" level. Below that, at the local government level, Its been said Ohio has a fairly high cost of local government (in the top 10), and there are real questions if this is sustainable given the direction of the state economy. My opinion is that cuts should come at the local level, since that's where things seem to be out-of-whack.

The Cleveland Fed has a report on the decline in labor force participation, which we've discussed earlier in this thread. Who Is Driving the Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate ..."who" in this case means what demographic group. The conclusion is that its an across-the-board phenomenon, with an interesting wrinkle in that the older men seem to be partipating more than expected? In summary, the lowest U.S. labor participation rate since the mid-1980s is being driven by lower participation across all demographic groups, and especially by those under 29. The biggest exception is older men, whose labor force participation rate has actually increased since the beginning of the recession. ...perhaps what is happening is that younger people..younger men...who can't find work drop out...or "don't participate" of the labor force and are living at home?

The unfortunate thing about this was that the planning seemed pretty good. But, as we all know, reality doesnt meet the plans in most cases. So far the only thing in the region at the same scale as San Mar Gale is that Nutter development in Greene County between Beavercreek and Xenia...Stoneridge or Stone Bridge or something. The Nutters had a very long time-horizon for there property so are developing it bit by bit.

That article was on the front page of the Louisville Courier-Journals op-ed section. Which is interesting because one could say, now with merger, "Jefferson County" is the new city, and the surrounding counties are the new suburbs since people are, apparently, moving out of "Metro Louisville" to these counties. The "inner ring suburb" concept seems to be changing with time. For me these suburbs were suburbs that predated WWII. The best examples I can think about are in Chicagoland. Places like Berwyn, Cicero, Elmwood Park, Oak Park, Forest Park. I guess for Ohio the examples would be Lakewood and Cleveland Heights, maybe Norwood and St Bernard and Silverton. Bexley, Oakwood, Grandview Heights would be other examples. Only in the past 10-20 years or so has this concept been broadened to take in postwar suburbia (from 1946 thru 1980 or so). I'd call that middle ring suburbia. But concept of "rings" is also questionable. In a place like Chicago, which grew along rail lines, its more like "fingers" of these inner ring suburbs. And also in Louisville, where postwar suburbia followed the foru-lane highways built by the WPA in the 1930s and 40s, you have fingers of 1950s suburbia extending pretty far out of the city.

For light reading I finished Bike Snob: Systematically and Mercilessly Realigning the World of Cycling and Velo: Bicycle Culture and Design. Also starting on the Chainbreaker Bike Book: A Rough Guide To Bike Maintenance Velo I saw at the CAC bookshop and figured it would be cheaper if I got it via Ohiolink. Lo & Behold UD had it already. This was more a picture book, portraying various aspects of bike culture (including graphic design). Interestingly this was published by the Germans, who I didn't think where into bike subculture, but they do use bikes a lot (at least the older generation did, for utility reasons). Bike Snob was entertaining, but after awhile one could predict the humor. Yet there is some common sense things in here, things I myself was wondering about, like "why don't bikes have fenders anymore?" (they should if you are doing commuting or errand riding). It explained about this "fixie" trend in cycling, actually about a lot of cycling subculture things. Sort of common sense stuff in there. Chainbreaker is a mix of how-to and reprints of a zine from one of those bike co-op shops, so its not a professional book, but there are some interesting things in it. I appreciate the DiY concept here. The zine stuff is a bit tedious but the how-to part is interesting (esp. since apparently New Orleans cycle people have different terminology for some bike parts or tools or stuff...the book was written by people from a New Orleans bike co-op. @@@@@ For serious reading the best 'Ive read over the past two months was this book: City: Urbanism and It's End, by Doug Rae. The book was specific to a city but had general application. This book looks at things as detailed as the distribution of corner stores and neighborhood retail, churches, civic institutions (the book is as much sociology and political science as it is "policy" and "geography"), and so forth. And it also looks at the urban renewal era. Not a particularly optimistic book, and Rae's definition of "urbanism" has been questioned, but he is right (based on what I see here in Dayton) that theres' no brining back these smaller industrial cities. Or, more accuratley, the forces that shaped them are no longer in play. There time is over. Also read in the past two months: Naked City: The Death and Life of Authentic Urban Places, by Sharon Zukin. After reading this I need to get her "Loft Living". Zukin explains the getrification phenomenon, what was happening with "Williamsburg", how gentrification is pushing out older aspect of black culture in Harlem, etc. I appreciate her riff on "authenticity". Zukins book is pretty goog context to some of the discussion we have here at Urban Ohio.

I will be going back on the bus for one whole month starting in March, so this will be the last post for a week or so. Friday was a reminder on how bus systems are at the mercy of the usual issues one finds with road congestion, as the heavy traffic on I-75 slowed the arrival of the "Dayton Mall" bus from and to downtown. This is the bus that uses I-75, and as those of you who travel through Dayton know, pretty congested during the rush hour. So this congestion apparently slowed the bus so it was both late arriving and late departing at the downtown bus hub. Not a big deal becuase I didn't have to make a connection at the south hub, but I can see how fixed rail on private ROW would be a superior form of transit in terms of speed and schedule reliability. Makes me think of what a great missed opportunity that Dayton Area Rapid Transit scheme of the early/mid 1970s was. Anyway, I notice that I can do things during that brief transfer time between buses, like quickly get books from the library (downtown library is about two blocks from the downtown bus terminal) and bank (ATM is also close by). If I know the call number and book I want its pretty quick to get off the bus from work, go to the library, get the book, and get back on my bus south, all in the time to transfer. People Watching on RTA I havn't got too quant about this (counting riders and where they get off) but I do notice that the mall bus doesn't really stay "express", as it takes people on on the way to and from the freeway. The "from" stretch goes through the "mall fuzz" office and retail stuff surrounding the Dayton Mall on the way to the hub. And people get on and off ...usually "off"...along this stretch. I think we lose maybe half the riders on the way to the hub. Interesting to see this, as I suspect there are some hotel/motel workers getting on/off here, but also saw some kids taking their younger brothers and sisters to Chuckie Cheese. Chuckie Cheese is right on the bus line. Sort of reminded me of when I was growing up as we'd take the bus to Six Corners and Belmont & Central (shopping districts on the northwest side of Chicago), usually to shop but sometimes to a restaurant or lunch counter (at Woolworth or Kresge) or matinee....this would be me, my cousin, my sister and my ma and grandmother. So it looks like folks still take their kids shopping or to restuarants on the bus.

^ I thnink thats what we are seeing. One can have population decline, but still have a rough parity of units to housholds. Or even an increase in households, depending on kids moving out on their own, and divorces, etc.

I probaly should have said 'too eccentric' vs "too extreme'. Hah..yeah....taking the bus to work is already pretty eccentric, though, so machts nichts, huh? My work just introduced a dress code, so I can't wear jeans and workboots anymore, which is my usual get-up when hoofing it or during rougher weather. So, I have to bring in a change of slacks and some dress shoes when I get to work and change in the handicap stall in the latrine since there are no locker rooms or places to change. Which means a bulkier carry-on for me when on the bus, vs this army suprplus courier pouch I usually use. I figure if I take a bike in I'd have to find some place to put it. Maybe in the attic. The bike/bus combo would be ideal for weekends. For example, taking the bus with the bike on a rack to DLM, and the ride the bike back. Or taking the bike downtown on the bus, and then use it to go to places in the city, like the aforementioned Charlies or 2nd Street Market, or that Press. I coffeeshop. I am certainly planning on taking the bus downtown on weekends anyway and walking to places while I save up for a bike. I can see taking the bus for those music festivals on Dave Hall Plaza, Cityfolk Festival, the Celtic Fest, Gay Pride, etc. I'm thinking of riding around town on different bus lines as I'm seeing this is a good way to see the city. I already know Dayton pretty well, but you see more if you aren't focused on driving and traffic. The place looks a bit different. It's interesting how that works. The walking issue does not bother me since I was walking, or hiking, three miles a day, minimum, after work. So the walk to and from the hub just replaces the longer after-work walks. I just thought it was illustrative of some of the frequency issues that can arise with the bus. Yet so far no complaints with RTA. I have noticed some cameraderie among regular riders, or a few of them. I guess they've been riding a while so they know each other and the drivers. I'm liking this carless....or I guess car-free....thing. It's different. I feel like I've broken some taboo or mental barrier of some sort by doing this, actually going to work and getting groceries without a car.

That Florida Tampa/Orlando run was supposed to be the closest to HSR of the various proposals. Too bad! @@@ About the Kentucky proposal: I think the Cincy-Lex-Chattanooga run still makes more sense for a route to Atlanta. But why not just fly to Atlanta. Atlanta is far enough for a reasonable air flight. BTW, passenger rail was studied once before in Kentucky, if I recall right. A big proposal to set up a triangular passenger service between Louisville, Lexington, and Northern KY (AKA 'Cincinnati'), but the price tag was huge and the plan dropped. This Lexington/Frankfort/Louisville thing might be more achievable, but I'd be really suprised if they pull it off, considering how conservative KY is.

I have been thinking about a bike before this bus experiment, but for now its going to be either bus or on foot. I can really see using a bike for errands down around my apt (probably do-able for shopping, etc) and then riding around to places downtown. Probably wouldnt take it to work though, since its too extreme ...

Three days so far commuting by bus. RTA's reputation (so far) is worse than its reality. The buses are on-time, clean, and comfortable. The situation at the downtown bus hub is quite efficient. The buses all have designated slots, and there are these digital readout displays giving ETAs, so you know how much time you have till the bus gets there. You know where to catch the bus and when its going to arrive. So far no missed transfer. I think my very early departures (first bus of the day from the South Hub to downtown), has something to do with this due to the light traffic that early. On the way home the bus connection is awful. Fortunatly the Miami Township library is right next door to the hub, so I can go in there and check my email and do other internet business, or just read the paper or a magazine and wait for my connecting bus. Or I could walk. Which I did yesterday (since the library closes early on certain days, Wed being one of them). It's quicker for me to walk home than wait for the connecting bus down SR 725. Though i do feel like a loser with all the cars passing me by. The +/- 30 minute walk to and back from the hub is actually pretty safe, with some shoulder walking, but fairly wide shoulders. Probably not too easy to do if its snowing, and perhaps during a rainy day. The route is atrociously lit, though, so I have to be somewhat careful during my morning walk (in the dark, still).

Wow, of all places, Kentucky. Instead of 3C how about 2Ls and F.... Riding the Rails: Transit Plan Unveiled If Ralph Tharp, Frankfort’s new industrial recruiter, had his wish, commuters in Louisville, Lexington and locally could be traveling to work next year in double-decker trains with leather seats and Wi-Fi access. He is championing a rapid transit commuter rail system with 11 stations in Lexington, Louisville, Shelbyville, Midway and Frankfort. Tharp, executive director of the Kentucky Capital Development Corporation, estimates the project could cost as little as $75 million and be completed by October 2012. ...proposed name: Thoroughbred Rail Link It would be sort of embarassing if Kentucky actually does execute this plan, considering how backward Ohioans think KY is...

The kicker: Long term trend excaberated by the recession?

"Somwhat" because I still have a car. Washington Township= south suburb of Dayton, Ohio. This thread will be me blogging on trying to get by without a car (or frequent use of a car) in a classic suburban strip environment. I live off SR 725, a major commercial strip between the Dayton Mall and Centerville (intersection of 725 & Lyons, another busy local highway). I have a car, but it's in the shop for an expensive repair, and I will have to pay off the repair bill by not using so much gas. And I don't have the money for a rental. So I am going to try to take the bus as much as possible. This will seriosly start tomorrow. But it already has started in a limited way. There is bus line in front of my complex, route 23, but it doesnt run early enough for me to get to work. So I have to walk to the "south" bus hub (just south of the Dayton Mall) to catch an early enough bus to get me downtown to transfer to the bus to work. This is 1.67 miles per the google maps pedometer. Fortunaly I have been doing alot of walking already, about 3 miles/day, typically, so am in good enough shape to make this walk. So I did some test walks this weekend. It will take me about 30 minutes to walk that 1.67 miles. Then I catch the bus downtown and transfer to the work bus. In the evening I will do it in reverse, but either catch the 23 bus at the hub or walk back. I am not too keen on that idea since part of the walk is on a shoulder, albeit a wide one. Not a problem early in the morning (say 5:30 to 6:00 AM), but feggataboutit, during evening traffic time. Yet a LONG wait for the 23 bus to take me home; I could walk it just as fast. Then there is food. I usually drive to get my groceries and get them in more than one place. The place I usually use a lot, Springboro Dorothy Lane Market, will be off limits as it has no bus service. But Cub is about 2 miles, just a bit beyond the bus hub. And, believe it or not, it has bus service! So this weekend...on Sunday... I experimented with shopping at Cub and taking the bus. Seems to work. I did the walking part early enough to avoid traffic, and the shuttle bus from Cub (which is a circulator for the Dayton Mall area) to the hub was on-time. So I didnt have to lug groceries very far. This will limit me to groceries that I can just carry in one of those market bags I got. You bag your own at Cub anyway, so no problem there. But you can't shop for a lot, or for heavy things, becuase it's too much to lug. The wait for bus 23 wasn't bad, less than it will be for me coming home from work. However, Cub doesn't have everything that DLM has. Or everything that I buy. Oddly enough the super-special stuff that DLM doesnt even have will be easier for me to get, but will require more walking. I can take the bus downtown on Saturday, walk to Charlies on Troy Street in "Old" North Dayton to get my Polish rye bread, liverwurst and other sausages, "Saft", and stuff, then walk back to downtown (or take the Troy Street bus...but too infrequent..), maybe stopping at the 2nd Street Market for additional stuff if I need it. A lot of hassle for three or so items, but Id only be doing this every two weeks, since a loaf of rye lasts me two weeks. Ordinarily this would be a quick trip downtown, or to DLM for the liverwurst since they carry my brand, but without a car you have to plan this out, and timing becomes everything.

This is true to some degree. Maybe this approach vindicates the theory behind urban renewal? There's a good book on the subject that is quite applicable to Dayton. just finished it: Doug Rae, "City: Urbanism and it's End". About New Haven, but could be about any smaller industrial city.

No it is not. To be "deep in the the Detroit process", means Dayton is in the middle of an era of "Devils Night" type widespread arson and the city is bulldozing houses into their cellars. This isn't happening just yet, though arson is picking up. Where we are now, is that the city has this big inventory of vacancies in varying degrees of decay. To-date there have been ongoing efforts in a few neighborhoods..namely, Twin Towers, that "Findlay" area I posted about, parts of the "Inner West", and even "Lower Dayton View", to put replace teardowns and vacant areas with replacement housing, plus the city has advocarted lot splits or people aquiring adjoining vacant lots (not sure how widespread or "implemented" this is. So the city...or local quangos and nonprofits...have been pushing back. I think the implications behind the article, and why I said Dayton is at the start of a Detroitification proces, is that these efforts (along with the neighborhood stabilization program federal money) won't be enough to make a dent in the inventory of "nuisance properties", not to mention vacant properties which, perhaps, have not yet become "nuisances". Eventually some vacancies will find there way back into the housing market, perhaps as rentals. Others will add to the inventory of nuisance properties, and they will deteriorate into ruins (or get arsonized) if not torn down. So the city is probably quite some time away from the "Detroit" end-state, and probably wont really get that bad since there are still some sucessfull gentrification areas for mostly white yuppie/"BoBo"/hipster/bohemian types. But there is not enough of this "Creative Class" city people to make enough of an impact to reverse much beyond what's already underway for them. There are also "Palmer Park" type areas of solid housing for the African-American middle class...since its mostly black folk who live in these areas. "Areas" being the neighborhoods on either side of Cornell, west of Salem (east of Salem is another matter), which is still one of the better areas in the city in terms of housing stock. Plus the good old white "average Joe" element still is holding out along Smithville Road, in Belmont. and parts of Linden Heights. One big difference between Dayton and Detroit is that the whites didn't flee en-masse in the 1970s, leaving a half-empty city to fall apart, the way they did in Detroit. So there is are some local twists to this tale that means Dayton probably won't collapse to the degree Detroit did. But there are going to be problems due to the vacancy wave that is swamping the city. @@@@@ C-Dawg talks about vacant commercial properties. I wish the intel on this was better so we know how much is industrial/warehouse and how much is retail. This is where the big impact could be as you'd have larger areas in terms of square feet and acreage to to be torn down. I think the city has made a big dent already in tearing down old industrial buildings. A lot is gone even during my time living here, enough to where the city doesn't seem so "loft factory rust belt" as it might once have. Even the things that are still standing are only fragments of once much larger industrial plants (DELCO @ 5th/3rd Field and the old Stoddard-Dayton buildings west of Keowee, btw Keowee and Wayne). They could probably tear down more, but so far the city has done a fairly good job of clearing old factory sites. What happens to vacant commercial that is retail could really change the appearance of the city. Tear down enough of these old buisness corners and the "urban" character of Dayton will be lessened. This has already happened in a few locations, which are probably unrecognizable compared to what they were like in the 1940s or 1950s.

These look great. I like that streetscape. It looks convicining as infill. I can see how this could be a model for the downtown area, weaving units like this into downtown.

That's actually a good place for that since its near the Dixie Strip, so already sort of "player" esque.

...theres a good book on this process re Chicago's "Wicker Park" area, called "Neo Bohemia", I think.

^ I think with Austin you have something like Columbus going on, the big state university + state government, and the state university there is more the liberal arts school? TU vs Texas A&M...with A&M attracting the more nerdy technical students (ie "engineers" and "Aggies")? I love this kind of stuff. Nuts and bolts analyses on how something that is sort of "loose" (conceptually speaking) operates. Clevo really has it together.

With Wright-Patterson and it's bevy of defense contractors and consultancies the energy is definetly east. You should drive by I-675 and Fairfield Road/Grange Hall Road interchange sometime (the WSU/Fairfield Mall area) to see how that edge city has developed, especially now they are putting up that new mid-rise hospital. Brave New (suburban) World. Dayton is off in the distance somewhere to the west, far away and long ago.

There has but I think they are doing the demos by a priority system, with houses that are surrounded by occupied houses coming down first, so it will be piecemeal. I seem to think there was going to be a prioritization of certain neighborhoods (Five Oaks and the North Main Street area getting a lot of demo money), but the graphics accompanying the articles don't show that, so maybe those plans have changed. I recall they were going to offer the vacant lots (for a price of some sort) to the neighbors, either as a whole lot or lot split, so you'd start to see "double lots" develope if the neighbors claim the vacant properites...the neighborhoods would become more large-lot and less dense. Which could be a good thing. Or there'd be infill stuff replacing torn-down houses. I think I posted on that a while back, the infill effort in the "Findlay" area (my name for the district) on the east side, between Linden Ave and Findlay Street. From what I can tell there is quite a bit of replacement housing going in in certain parts of the city, which indicates there is apparently a policy decision somewhere in City Hall to not go with land-banking and neighborhood decommissioning. A concept which has political issues (as has been noted), but is fun to play with as a design or planning theoretical exercise. Yet the issue, as the article notes, is there are way more "nuisance properties" (and that number is growing) than there is demo money. So the problem might just be getting worse and the city is actually on the start of the "Detroitification" process, with the Fed $$$ making an initial dent in the vacant/nuisance inventory, but the inventory itself growing. Eventually this inventory will start to turn into "Brush Park" ruins, but in wood since quite a bit of Dayton is built in wood, which I guess more like that neighborhood around the Heidelberg Project. A mix of vacants, ruins, occupied units, and vacant lots, with the housing stock mostly out of wood.

^ "artist types" vs artists. I would figure artists actually make a living off their art, or it's more than a hobby or pose. Or they might have a day job...what the Germans call a "brotberuf"... but the passion is for doing art and there is some income coming in from sales via dealers and galleries. The question of marketing art and patronage is a good one, as well as galleries. Presumably one could have an artist community but not much of this visible if the artists show out-of-town or out-of-state. That was the case here in Dayton, where at least one local artist rarely (if ever) showed in Dayton, his dealer & gallery being out on the West Coast somewhere, since there was minimal local patronage and next to no gallery or dealer infrastructure. The marketing aspect, or marketing channel, could be an interestig feature of facilitating artists. Things like transporting art, connecting artists to galleries and dealers in art markets, etc. Yes, that is exactley it! That's what I recall...thanx!