Jeffery

I believe it's the Dayton Development Coaltion that is pushing this, to have the Dayton area as a test bed for the experimental Google service. The call the pitch Dayton Average + Awesome ...surf into the link and there is a neat map showing supporters. The geogparphy is interesting if you know anything about Dayton and it's suburbs. Some expected clusters and a few unexepected ones.

The breakdown is: Dayton View Triangle & Fairview: 10 University Row: 20 Hillcrest: 50 Santa Clara/Mnt Vernon: 200 Five Oaks: 100 Northwest Dayton: 380 ...and Nan Waley lives in Five Oaks. Inner East: 60 Twin Towers: 50 Linden Heights: 50 Walnut Hills: 50 East Dayton: 210 Wright Dunbar/Wolf Creek: 50 Roosevelt/McFarlane: 50 Westwood: 100 West Dayton: 200 ...for the suburbs: Ft McKinley: 365 Drexel/Crown Point/Townview: 69 Misc: 91 (including 45 in the little suburb of Union, north of Englewood)

duplicate

Dayton's NSP 2 application asked for a waiver to the demo policy so they could demolish more. The plan for NSP 2 is to demolish an additional 790 units in the city. 48% of those are in the area circled in red.

Dayton's NSP 2 application was for 790 demolitions in the city and 525 in the county...So, adding the NSP 1 number 2315 units are coming down in the Dayton area.

Great Stuff, C-Dawg. The Fed linkage is pretty good, too. Looks like Urban Ohio is going to be a little less Urban after this is all finished. Except for Cleveland and Canton, which seems to be focusing on rehab.

(tip of the hat to C-Dawg who linked to the Federal Reserve site that had a link to this info) The source here is the “Substantial Action Plan Amendment “ to the city of Dayton Neighborhood Stabilization Plan, which I think was the application or program plan for Federal money to do stabilization. The area that I think looks like the upper pic in the thread header is circled in red in these maps, which confirm what I was suspecting, that the area is under threat, or at the start of a process of thinning out. As one can see from the following maps other parts of the city are in worse shape. This first map is of “stability”, measured by the number of city-owned properties and low ratings for a condition assessment, combined with stats on foreclosures and “high cost loans” (subprime mortgages), and tax delinquencies. It is taken down to the census block group level, 1=marginal, 2=least stable The next map is of concentrations of tax delinquent properties where taxes are 2 + years delinquent. The report says this number is a good predictor of future abandonment. Most of this is on the west side, which is old news since this area has been seeing the greatest loss in housing stock since 1990. The one tract in the area outlined in red, south of Fairview or Hillcrest, west of Main Street, was recently profiled as one of the top ten most vacant neighborhoods in the US. Next some high-cost (subprime?) mortgage numbers and foreclosure predictions (this is an 18 month prediction). Pretty extensive/ I should note here that the Cleveland Fed has some maps by zip code for “prime mortgage foreclosures, and the Dayton area shows up on that map as a hot spot. These are not subprime mortgages, but prime (I guess sound or OK?) mortgages. Perhaps this indicating the effect of the recession, compounding the ongoing subprime crisis. Finally, pulling it all together, the city developed a composite map, rating block groups showing areas that at various degrees of need. It looks like 1/2 to 2/3 of the city is at the highest score, the “Area of Greatest Need” ..defined as “multiple significant distress and risk factors are present and stabilization efforts are required”. This info is sourced from the Dayton NSP available at the Cleveland Fed site. C-Dawg already posted a lot on this, so here is the link: Cleveland Fed page on the Dayton NSP The concluding paragraph is informative as to the future: ”The city’s recognition that Dayton’s population will most likely never reach previous levels was pivotal in developing a density-reducing strategy for the city. Similar scenarios are playing out in several other cities especially many weak market cities in the Midwest. According to Dayton officials, the ability to use NSP I funds to demolish vacant structures and create green space is a critical tool in helping them implement the city’s “right-sizing” goals. Unfortunately, under NSP II, this activity is no longer an eligible use of funds” ….so, no more demolition money from the Feds. The 2008 plan was to take down 1,000 units in the “Areas of Greatest Need” and targeted “Areas of Moderate Need”. If abandonment and board-ups continue local or state money will have to be found to keep up with the vacating of the city.

^ Heh, yeah, Urban Ohio has great content! @@@@ Recall my posts on Ohio employment, and how things have really tanked with this recession. Looks like the Cleveland Fed has been doing some research on this, too. Heres a chart showing employment in a different way, by months out from a peak. They provide a range, a postwar average, and the most recent recession. If we see the kind of jobless recovery as in the 00s we are screwed. I don't even want to think about a double dip recession..what that would do to the labor market. From the Fed site: ". An even more worrisome pattern emerged in the previous two recessions. During the 1990-91 recession, employment never fell that far relatively speaking, but it took every bit of 35 months for it to return to peak levels. Moreover, Ohio has still not returned to peak employment levels since the 2001 recession." I dont use the unemployment rate much as I think its an imperfect measure, but the Feds graph of this is pretty dismal, too: The Fed's conclusion: "Discounting the structural problems in Ohio’s economy such as human capital accumulation, population loss, manufacturing decline, and so on, labor market data indicate significant damage has been done to Ohio’s economy during the recession. Previous patterns in the labor market data point to a prolonged recovery." Source: Ohio's Labor Market Cycles

^ the Arcade still might get torn down, but it will be awhile before that happens. They would build new. I heard this from Leon Bey since Leon has inside intel though his being a retired librarian. This was being discussed by members of the board, but nothing official. Just something they were thinking about.

On a more hopefull note: Arcade Progress Happening Behind the Scenes DAYTON — Leon Bey never tires of talking about possibilities when it comes to the future of Dayton’s historic downtown arcade. The co-founder of Friends of the Dayton Arcade will share his enchantment for the complex of five 1904-era buildings in a presentation at Kettering’s Charles I. Lathrem Senior Center on Tuesday, March 16, at 3:30 p.m. He’ll introduce, through photos and personal encounters, Gunther Berg and Wendell Strutz of Plymouth, Wis., who purchased the arcade for $615,106.02, at auction one year ago on March 12, 2009. Leon Bey is probably the hero of this saga as he stirred the pot on reviving interest in the Arcade.

Ruh-Roh! Arcade $89K behind on property taxes DAYTON — The new owners of the historic downtown Arcade are $89,100 behind in property taxes on the complex of five buildings. “These taxes, from my perspective at this point in time, are owed,” Elaine Johnson, Montgomery County’s director of real estate said.... ....The partners missed payment of $36,638 in July 2009, a figure that has grown to $41,378 with added penalties and interest. An additional $47,722 was due in February, Johnson said. The article goes on to say the developers want to interest the library to move some things into the Arcade, which (reading between the lines) indicates some concern with finding tenants. If you all will recall from my Arcade history series library relocation has already been looked at back in the 1990s. The libray board, ore some members, have considered relocation, but to a site near UD and the new DDN building, over on the old NCR land.

^ depends on how "near" is near. Nothing as close as OTR, Oregon, or German Village. Probably the oldest mostly intact neighborhoods, in terms of physical age, are Portland and Butchertown, (in Portlands case in age of platting, too), but they are some distance from downtown. I think I did a few posts on this a while back..Louisville First and Last Houses, sort of a fun thing looking at the first houses one encounters as one heads out of downtown in various directions.

Yeah, despair fills the air. I guess this is about trying to predict things and how its really tough to do beyond the near term. If we see a substantial job loss in Ohio due to a close-in second recession without much employment recovery it will be a long time to recover if we have 2000's job creation rates, and by that time the baby boomers will start dying off or leaving the labor force, so the issue of weak job growth goes away since the people go away. Anyway, who is to say what would happen that far out? Job creation could increase for some unforseen reason. For example who forsaw the 1990s employment boom, with unemployment dropping to 1960s levels?

I'm suprised at this and it doesnt really show up on the BLS numbers I look at. This Conference Board might be using a different way to measure manufacturing. I found it interesting since Ohio is still heavy into manufacturing. I did a quick run of the Ohio private numbers with the new BLS January number (which is preliminary). It shows the expected seasonal employment drop, but it was not shallow, more a "typical" drop one saw in the years of mid 2000s. I was hoping for a shallower drop as that might indicate we were approaching "floor" under job destruction. As it is, if Ohio repeats the employment numbers for the "good years" of 2000s we will never get out of the hole in this state. The jobs lost in the recession will stay lost for the foreseable future. If job creation is more like the 1990s, the early post-recession 1990s, we'd take about 7 years or so to get back to the 2007-2008 employment numbers. If we have a double-dip recession and it leads to additional job destruction on top of what we currently have I think we would be in a near-Depression situation. We would never recover from that unemployment hole.

The part of Columbus where I flash on a Louisville vibe is that neighborhood between Goodale Park and OSU...Neal Avenue? Victorian Village?....it's like Old Louisville, but maybe not so over-the-top, architecturally speaking. But the long tree lined streets and big old houses...you can catch a similar thing (including the N-S orientation of the streets). Louisville doesn't have a German Village, though. The equivilant neighborhoods were cleared via urban renewal and subsequent demolitions.

...the "Italianate City?" . Yes there is a similar architectural exuberance going on in the details, even for humble buildings like those shotgun houses. Cincy was built-out at a higher density, though, and seems to be "taller".

^ ...and they aren't even in Dayton. They are in Detroit. Which is remarkable since they do look so much like generic street scenes in the good old Gem City...which is why I posted them. I'm speculating here that the process of thinning well underway in Detroit is starting to accelerate in Dayton.

Before & After The top could be any of those neighborhoods along Salem and Main Street north/northwest of downtown, and the bottom the direction they are headed based on current trends in depopulation, vacancy, and, soon, demolition. And I should caveat that thread title by saying this is the future of Dayton beyond most of the historic distrcts, which seem to be doing OK.

The West End is the “Dayton” part of Louisville. Ghetto. White ghetto in Portland. Black ghetto everywhere else. It’s deteriorating and being slowly abandoned. And it’s well nigh unknown to the "alternative"/hipster/yuppie/”creative class” Louisville since they have no reason to come here. It’s not part of that “cool” funky Louisville we all know and love. However, for an older generation the West End was a world unto itself, a place that even had its own dialect or accent, which one could still hear in former West Enders as late as the 1970s. It is also the heart of the Louisville black community. It is echt Louisville, part of the DNA of the city. Beng the hopeless city geek that I am I’ve been driving these streets and discovering how much is left of old Louisville, what’s left of the 19th century city and will post occasional drive-by snaps from these excursions. These are from the vicinity of Market and Jefferson streets, mostly in the area around Saint Anthony of Padua, a parish founded by Germans in the 1860s, around the time of the Civil War, maybe just after. The church seen here was built in 1884-1885, when this area was at the western edge of the built –up area of Louisville. Today this area is at the boundary between the Portland and Russell neighborhoods, the white and black West End. “Son, youre goin’ to drive me to drinkin’/if you don’t stop drivin’ that hot. rod. Lincoln” ...I still say shotguns, camelback and regular, are what give old Louisville a different flavor than nearby cities. Some say New Orleans but I think this is a local version that is a bit different than the NOLA style? (never been to New Orleans so can’t say...leave that question to more well-traveled readers) This is a local vernacular style that is superficially similar to a Dayton style, but a future post will show how the two vernaculars are somewhat different, different local takes on a similar houseform More West End stuff coming up in the weeks and months ahead.

..more like Indianapolis than Cincinnati? The Smoketown and Phoenix Hill area. St Martin of Tours steeple. Treeline in the distance is the edge of the flat city, marking the start of the Highlands...

Laurel Canyon: Inside Story of Rock and Roll's Legendary Neighborhood (Michael Walker) This sounds like an interesting book. I like books that mix geography and pop culture/cultural studies.

Laurel Canyon: Inside Story of Rock and Roll's Legendary Neighborhood (Michael Walker) This sounds like an interesting book. I like books that mix geography and pop culture/cultural studies.

Looking at those long-term charts one realizes how difficult it is to predict or forcast when sitting in the middle of a trend. One thing to be wary about is when people said we've licked the business cycle. That means we are at the peak of an expansion. People said that in the 1960s and they said it in the 1990s. As I said before in the current recession something has happened since the swings in numbers are so big, so who knows?

Press Release: The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) Increases The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) rose in February for the sixth consecutive month. The index now stands at 93.5, up from January's 93.2. During the past six months, the index increased by 13.4 percent (annual rate), the highest six-month growth rate since 1994. "The continued rise in the ETI suggests that job growth is about to begin," said Gad Levanon, Associate Director, Macroeconomic Research at The Conference Board. "The past two jobless recoveries in 1991 and 2002 were a result of a continuous decline in manufacturing employment. This time, the strong recovery in manufacturing production has already led to two consecutive monthly increases in manufacturing employment. We are likely to see this trend continue over the next several months, which will contribute to overall job growth." This month's increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from four out of the eight components. The improving indicators were: Number of Temporary Employees, Job Openings, Industrial Production, and Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight labor-market indicators, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out so-called "noise" to show underlying trends more clearly... ..more at the link. Levanon is correct about manufacturing lagging...really not recovering at all...after the 2001 recession. That was the case in Ohio. The BLS will have the final December and preliminary January employment numbers out later this month for Ohio and MSAs, so I will be able to do some scenarios to see how deep in the hole we (Ohio) are when it comes to employment.

Though I'd prefer it if Kasich doesn't say one word either way about guns, gays, or gods, I'm sure he's probably going to have to show concern (even if feigned) to get the groups that care about those issues on board. Yeah, being anti-gay rights has become is a litmus test for GOP candidates, so he is going to have to take that line. This why I will not support Republican candidates, not until the party drops this issue. They are my enemy and I'll be damned if I vote for any of them. Uh huh, I know this is being a single issue voter, but IMO lesbians and gays are fools to support a political party that works against them...this includes their candidates.