Jeffery

The Recession in Ohio so far…in employment numbers. This is sort of a wrap for the year as the next important numbers wont be available until the end of February. As in the past I don’t pay attention to the unemployment rate, but instead work backwards by seeing how many jobs there are, based on BLS statistics for Ohio. The long view Then a month by month comparison to pop out the trends. As you can see the employment trend seems to have bottomed out, or is following the 2006 and 2007 pattern of flattening within a range in the late summer and fall. This is a good sign. It’s good because we are not dropping like in 2008. However, we can also anticipate that big seasonal drop in the winter. After that, an increase in employment during the winter and spring to a high in the early summer. If we have a “typical” drop as in 2006 and 2007 we will still be in the hole during 2010 and into 2011 for unemployment. How much depends on how the economy produces jobs during the winter/spring/early summer run-up. Or if we have a shallow drop after December. This projection shows two scenarios. Even the better one doesn’t improve the situation much, but we’d be in better shape to start climbing out of the employment hole in 2011 Note that this is employment for Ohio. I recognize that there has been reported GDP growth at the national level. This may or may not translate to employment growth in Ohio, and I think employment might lag the expansion somewhat. On edit, for the big national picture, the Brookings Metro Monitor reports on the recovery: Nationwide, the recession is over—at least in the view of most economists in light of third quarter 2009 indicators. They revealed a real U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increasing at a 2.8 percent annual rate, after four consecutive quarters of contraction. Most interpreted that rate of output growth, along with other signals such as increasing housing prices, as indication that the economic recovery is underway. Yet the recovery seems fragile. The output increase may have resulted largely from the replenishment of manufacturing inventories and from temporary federal policies: the “cash-for-clunkers” program (already over), the first-time homebuyer tax credit (now extended through April 2010), and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’s economic stimulus. As the effects of these policies recede, the recovery could slow or give way to yet another recession or a prolonged period of economic stagnation. Real recovery in the labor market, moreover, remains elusive.... ....more at the link.

^ Perot. These third party or indepenent candidates or movements failed totally during the 20th century. The Tea Party movement would only split the GOP if they run independent candidates. I think they have a better chance by following the religous right and operate within the GOP as a faction or movement or as an outside pressure group. I don't know if Tea Party is organized for politics or if its limited to putting on these ralleys. Tea Party isn't that far from the GOP core values of small/limited goverment and low taxes. They remind me of a more populist version of the movement conservatives who provided the intellectual and rhetorical foundation for the Reagan revolution. So I can see them maybe having a better shot than they think. For Ohio I'm not sure who Tea Party could get behind. I was thinking John Kasich as he was close to them on fiscal convervatism while in Congress.

^ Yeah, that was an interesting article at the link. I actually know Burton Clemans as an occasional drinking companion since I used to go to The Century. He hung out there, too, since it was close to his loft. There must be something with the economics of downtown housing here that stalled the conversion trend in the mid-2000s. There was a steady stream of new projects until around 2005. Then it all stopped. They say 5,000 units planned but also say what was developed was priced too high. It could be that those price points are what's needed to make downtown housing projects economically viable, so the developer can turn a profit after covering his or her finance, acquisition, and construction costs. They talk about an equity fund, but there was a loan pool (actually a committment to finance, not an true pool) that supported the previous conversions. Maybe a lesson learned there, somewhere. Anway, this is topic drift. Caresource is like the Mead Tower or the P&G Towers in Cincy or the Fiberglas Tower in Toledo, a high-rise purpose-built as a corporate HQ. I recall Caresource was based in Richmond, VA before coming to Dayton, so perhaps their management, being outsiders, didn't have the anti-downtown cultural baggage the locals have, hence less resistance to locating downton. The vacancy situation isn't around something like Caresource, its about the downtown commercial office market. I alluded to cultural issues, but it could simply be that Dayton isn't big enough, economically speaking, to generate enough demand to absorb the glut of downtown office space that came online with the bank consolidations and corporate departures. This could be an issue for other cities, too, like Toledo. And there was some overbuilding, with One Dayton Centre and the Citizens Federal Building coming online at the same time. Reports at the time said that the developer of One Dayton Centre wouldn't have built if he had known about the Citizens Federal Building. So even in better times there was a glut, which was excaberated by the economic changes of the past years.

Actually Louisville has its own problems, and, in some fundamental ways the Dayton region is in a better position than Louisville for long-term economic growth and as an attractive place for people to relocate to. In this topic we are just talking about a lifestyle or subculture thing, something that is really quite ephermal. This is a lot more entertaining.

Hah...yeah, DDN comments redux......but if I was really a local I'd read your beads for implying I was a Dayton citizen, rather than a Centerville or Beavercreek one... But, seriously, these pix do bring out the good side of the city, brinig out the beauty of the place, as ColDayMan says...he has an eye for that....

VERY NICE!!! Indeed. Proof that the right combination of technical skill, good shot selection, and cropping can make even Dayton look good.

...plenty to choose from! :evil:

What happened here was the loss of a major corporation who vacated their skyscraper, combined with bank mergers, left a floating "vacancy hole" in the downtown market. This was combined with business just not wanting to locate downtown, with a few exceptions (like law firms and non-profits). One of the traditional downtown tenants where medical professionals and insurance agencies. These have nearly totally left downtown.

In other words, Dayton..city & suburbs...is just fakin' it. Actually it is. Again, where is the local record store?

This hasn't been the case in Dayton. The following prewar buildings are either closed or largely vacant: 1. Commercial Building (closed in the 1970s) 2. Lindsay Building (closed in the 1970s) 3. former KeyBank Building (closed this year except for ground floor retail) 4. Center City Offices (old UB Building)( mostly vacant except for ground floor retail) 5. Fidelity (still open, rumored with high vacancy) 6. Barclay (still open) 7. Riebold (partly converted into government offices and partly vacant) 8. Conover (converted into RTA offices and partially for lease) 9. Hulman (still open, now the Republic Building, bank HQ). The fate of the prewar high-rise hotels: 1. Biltmore (converted into housing) 3. Holden (converted into housing) 4. Van Cleve (demolished) 5. Miami (demolished) 6. Schwind/Moraine (converted into housing) 7. Algonquin (remains a hotel, now the Doubletree) In the postwar era (1960s & early 70s), four high-rise hotels were built in Dayton. 2 were demolished 1 was converted into housing 1 remains a hotel. Most of the postwar high-rises are occupied, interestingly some of the older ones are doing OK in occupancy, like 44 W Fourth, built in 1967 and the second postwar skysrcaper in the city. One of the newest, the old Citizens Federal building of around 1990, formerly 5/3 Building, has high vacancy since its major tenant , 5/3 Bank, moved down the street to the once equally vacant One Dayton Centre. Of the older postwar high rises (1960s/70s) that might have higher vacany is the 111 Building.

Good use of that building. That had the potential of being yet another Dayton White Elephant. Now its a near-perfect addition to the UD campus. Get that NCR logo off quick! Please!

ha...yeah probably a good sample of the ornery soreheadness out there. "Buskars".... But there is some unintended humor in that article, about Dr. Irvin playing the role of "Magic Christian", funding all this stuff, and now this buskers school to train street performers, who will adhere to a "buksers code". I have to smile at this, but also have to aknowlege that this is forced growth. Stuff like this should, in theory, be sort of organic, and just 'happen'....?

For me Gem City was pretty disappointing in their selection. I think it was overrated. I usually got stuff from a band at the venue they were playing at, during a break or after the show, becuase I knew GC probably wouldn't stock it. And for other things I used online or went to Shake-It or Ear X-tacy (when I was down in Lou). Shake-It also had a great used DVD bin...picked up some interesting documentaries there. I also had good luck at Joseph-Beth for things like classical or more folky things.

Them shutting down indicates a lack of business, meaning there wasn't enough locals to support the place. Presumably it would have stayed open if it was sufficiently profitable. That the place didnt get carry local stuff to the degree that the Cincy and Louisville stores was a seperate issue, probably meaning the stuff didn't sell, or they there was a lack of product coming in somehow. The comments at the DDN link are just local public opinion on how the Oregon sucks and why they wont go down there.

....heh, I was joking about counting bumper stickers. So defensive....

^ Whatever.

The DDN follows up by putting a happy face on the Oregon District retail/entertainment situation: Gem City Closing Wont Spell End of Indie Oregon Spirit.... ...with the local commentators disagreeing by saying how much better Brown Street/UD area is & how much they prefer suburbia, once again proving the point on why "indie" things struggle here.

It might have more to do than you are willing to admit. I guess I could count fish symbols and WWJD stickers on the cars in the drive-through....

^ a lack of interest in this in Dayton. Key qualifier. Note that Shake-It Records in Cincy is still going strong (and they have a very funky books/mags/comix selection, too), as is the very reliable Ear X-Tacy in Louisville. Both these places have a good online presence too, for online ordering and downloading. Another think Shake-It and Ear X-tacy have are very complete local music bins (at least they seem so), which was a weak spot for Gem City. For a city with such a vaunted local scene a lot of the Dayton groups didnt have stuff for sale at that store..your best bet was to go to their myspace page or get a CD at a show.

^ ..and maybe bitching a bit since the fat fundies' SUVs in the Chic-fil-ay drive thru start to back up onto SR 725, blocking my way home. Anyway, I'm old school on this as I still like KFC original recipe chicken (the seasoning really is good, IMO). And a bit of local brand loyalty since it's based in Louisville. Louisville was also the home of Long John Silvers (sort of a local street food gone national..deep fried fish places are like chili in Cincy), and Ralley (run out of Louisville for a while but started elsewhere), and Papa John pizza (not my favorite, and not the best in Lou either).

^ I dont care one way another, just speculating on why that particular chain is so popular locally.

In answer to the thread parent here are some pix of the winter tea party in Dayton, which was a big event for political events here: Dayton Tea Party, plus some graphs showing how weak Obama polled here and how dependent this area is on Federal spending.

Actually, no. The economy in general was moving into recession in 2008, with an accelerating slide in the third and fourth quarters. 2009 and probably early 2010 is probably the "middle". 2008 was the "start".

....aha, that explains why the ones here in suburban Dayton are so packed. Suburbia here is right wing fundyland to the max, so the locals are homing right in. I guess the place comes highly recommened by the local preachers. #### I did try the Five Guys. Basic largish burgers/cheesburgers but tons of fries. I think they overload you with fries.

Dayton Most Metro & Esrati are probably the best places online right now for Dayton urban affairs discussion, though Esrati has that crappy "I talk/you comment" blog format. Followed by City-Data Forum.