Brutus_buckeye

The right concept could work there. It has to be a destination location instead of a neighborhood location. People seek a specific reason to go to that block vs one of the other establishments on the inside of the Banks.

It would need a bigger concentration of businesses on that side to work. Even then I don't see much working out there unless there is a Reds or Bengals or FC shop at that location. Even with the Caps on FWW it still creates a vast amount of space between 2nd and 3rd that is not developed and is parkland. It does not do much to connect with other entertainment and food establishments.

2020 if Columbus continues at its current pace (and Cincinnati continues at its current pace). So we are both wrong. Looks like 2025 if they don't combine the Metros https://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/news/2016/10/11/columbus-region-to-grow-fastest-in-ohio-becoming.html

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years 1). Cin-Day isn't an actual metropolitan area (yet). It is two adjacent metropolitan areas in SW Ohio. Columbus will be the state's largest MSA. 2). If Cin-Day DID exist, it currently is around 3.4 million. I suspect that if Cin-Day ever exists (and it's possible it never will), it will become a CSA rather than an MSA. It will exist by 2020. City leaders from both areas are pretty much counting on this. With the growth in Warren county and areas like Springboro there are so many people commuting from Warren to Montgomery County. Springboro is becoming such an important part of the Dayton area that it is the chief job creator area outside of Wright Patterson. The combined MSA is inevitable, just like Columbus continued growth. There are no jobs in Springboro except for a Kroger and a Dorothy Lane Market. If you are referring to Austin Landing, that is Miami Township in Montgomery County. Dayton MSA's largest employment centers are Downtown, UD/Midtown, WPAFB/Fairborn, and Miamisburg/Miami Township. Springboro has always been a Dayton suburb but not for employment but for "1990's new money," much like Mason is to Cincinnati. To say that Springboro is a "job creator" for the Dayton area is false...unless you think Mason is a job creator for downtown Cincinnati and Blue Ash. Then you'll just have to pass the blunt on that one, man. jonoh81 is correct that if Cin-Day did happen, it would be a CSA, much like Cleveland-Akron-Canton. Columbus would still be the state's largest MSA and Cleveland-Akron would be the state's largest CSA still, but not by much over Cin-Day. But I'm with ryanlammi, if it hasn't happened in the past 3 Census takings, it'll likely not happen for 2020. The ironic problem IS Warren County. Cuyahoga and Summit border each other; There are two suburban counties between Dayton and Cincinnati, Warren and Butler. Dayton's MSA gets screwed as the northern suburbs of Warren County go to Cincinnati's MSA but that's life. Dayton MSA with it's actual suburbs in northern Warren counted (Springboro, Franklin, Carlisle, Waynesville, Clearcreek Twp, Wayne Twp, and Franklin Twp at 92,572) = 1,167,189, moving up under Albuquerque and Rochester. Take THAT Fresno! Cincinnati MSA without Dayton's Warren County suburbs = 2,131,659, dropping it slightly below Raleigh. I am mistaken. I was thinking Austin Landing. Even without combining Cin-day, Columbus is still not set to become the largest metro until like 2028 or something like that I thought

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years 1). Cin-Day isn't an actual metropolitan area (yet). It is two adjacent metropolitan areas in SW Ohio. Columbus will be the state's largest MSA. 2). If Cin-Day DID exist, it currently is around 3.4 million. I suspect that if Cin-Day ever exists (and it's possible it never will), it will become a CSA rather than an MSA. It will exist by 2020. City leaders from both areas are pretty much counting on this. With the growth in Warren county and areas like Springboro there are so many people commuting from Warren to Montgomery County. Springboro is becoming such an important part of the Dayton area that it is the chief job creator area outside of Wright Patterson. The combined MSA is inevitable, just like Columbus continued growth. Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly. Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave. The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live) I still don't get this idea that international growth is somehow not as good as domestic. Why? Growth is growth, however it happens, and immigrants have value. Florida and other Sun Belt states get the vast majority of their domestic migration from other parts of the Sun Belt, NOT the North, just as Ohio gets the vast majority of its domestic migration from its own region rather than others. In fact, the Sun Belt LOST population domestically to the Midwest 2012-2016 based on that period's migration tables. When it comes to this issue, there are always all sorts of beliefs thrown about that aren't actually true. Also, cost of living is now basically equal between the Midwest and South, and it's actually becoming more expensive in the South, regardless of tax policy. On top of all that, the South is the worst region in almost every quality of life metric used, from education to upward mobility, obesity, poverty, etc. Let's stop making the South as some kind of Utopia. Migration is migration whether it be international or domestic. However, when you have immigrants coming in from other countries, they often require more assistance because they 1) generally tend to be lower on the economic spectrum 2) are generally not working or coming to the area for high paid jobs in the growth fields and 3) have more children which requires more schools and other services. Don't look at this as a good or bad thing but it is a reality of the situation. There is a big difference between the growth of say Silicon Valley and the growth in Laredo, Texas in terms of the use of resources. You still want immigrants coming to the area however, initially, they will not build the wealth of the region up.

^ Yes but by the time Columbus would be expected to eclipse Cincinnati, Cin-Day would have already been a merged metro area.

Columbus will not be the largest metro anytime soon. Cin-Day will be over 3 million. Columbus growth could not catch that for close to 100 years

absolutely! I think comparing growth in Ohio or even the cities in Ohio to growth in Nashville, Tampa, Charlotte, Dallas, Austin, etc is not an apples to apples comparison. Ohio is much more like New York as far as growth trends are concerned. We are doing a lot better than Illinois. New York is losing a heck of a lot more people than ever migrated out of Ohio and they are not replacing them with people going there for phenomenal jobs (yes there are some of that), but the bulk of the immigration is coming from overseas because it is a major port of entry and people stay there. I would wager that the growth of most cities in the 21st century is not necessarily coming from young professionals who are moving to an area for jobs ( that is certainly part of the equation) but rather certain booms in ethnic groups who establish an enclave in these areas. For example, Columbus and Minneapolis have become enclaves for the Somali population, Detroit has become a hub for Middle Easterners, many cities in the Sun Belt has large Hispanic populations to support their growth. They come over in droves and they also tend to have more children and larger families than young professionals who have none or just one or two. This is what leads to faster growth more than high paying jobs.

Cincy is keeping up with Columbus too. Cincy is a bit slower growth but it is a bigger market too still. There is less in-migration there because of the lack of state government and Ohio State, but otherwise, it is very comparable to Columbus. Cleveland and Toledo and Dayton have struggled as well as Youngstown. There economies were all a lot less diverse than Cincy and Columbus (albeit Cleveland has a lot of diversity) which hurt those smaller Markets. Cleveland was hurt by the manufacturing changes that occurred in the last 30 years but has finally straightened things out and growing again, albeit slowly. Point being, no city in Ohio can really toot its own horn because unlike the Sun Belt, growth is essentially flat. Heck New York is growing too yet they have the largest outmigration of anywhere in the country. It is just there are a flood of immigrants that enter through there to take the place of those who leave. The Sun Belt is growing because of favorable tax policies in Florida and Texas take the snow birds from the North, and there is a lot of migration from Latin America, etc, larger families in the Bible Belt, manufacturing jobs relocating to Sun Belt for numerous reasons (namely that is where a lot of people desire to live)

most of the growth is comprised of new births outpacing deaths as opposed to people moving to ohio

FCC in the drivers seat, just need to quickly get their act together to check the boxes. They should have gone to Newport from the start and the deal would be done by now.

I have heard the same about SAC's bid. The issue with the ownership is not Meg Whitman's money, but they want her deep pockets as the main owner instead of a secondary owner.

Here is one angle I have not really seen raised and I don't know if it is really an issue at all, but MLS is primarily a Spring/Summer sport with a little in the fall. Both Sacramento and Nashville do not have Major League Baseball teams while Cincy and Detroit do. Not saying this is a big issue but wonder if it is something that is discussed? In Nashville and Sacramento the NHL and NBA regular seasons end around the beginning of April so there is not much competition for the sports entertainment market in the Spring/Summer months. Whereas Cincy and Detroit have Spring/Summer/Fall professional sports in the market. Don't know if this is bad for Cincy or a non-issue.

His references to Columbus in comparing them to the expansion teams are essentially that Columbus has never really supported the team and they could have put their money where their mouth was 5 years ago. He also talks about Miami in the article where he says that for stability of the league you need to have a local ownership group. That is one of the reasons why Miami has not gotten off the ground yet. He says that the thing that the 4 expansion finalists have is strong local ownership to build stability in their markets and ultimately, that is what will lead to long term success. He then says (indirectly) that Columbus could have stepped up 5 years ago and had local ownership purchase the team and then they would not be in this mess. What this article essentially is saying and Garber admitting is that once PreCourt purchased the team, he had every right to move wherever he wanted and no allegiances to Columbus. That is true for most major league sports. Outside of the major markets, local ownership is essential in their teams too.

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2017/12/12/mls-commissioner-expansion-teams-timetable-could.html Here is the link to the article. Essentially, Garber laments the lack of local ownership as key reason why Columbus is not serious about supporting the Crew. Also, he essentially pokes them for being outdrawn by a USL team. Finally, he said that the fans and city leaders in Columbus need to look at what Cincy, Det, Sac and Nashville are doing as how to support a team. The ironic thing is outside of Cincy and Sac, the other 2 cities have no team or history. Metrics do not matter. This is the narrative from the front office and ultimately, their opinion matters more than the facts.

So here is the MLS narrative on Columbus and their fans: "The level of public support is significant," he said of the four expansion candidates. "We haven’t seen that in Columbus. Maybe Columbus should look at what Detroit and Nashville and Cincinnati and Sacramento are doing and think, maybe if this thing is turned from where it was to where it needs to be, that the Crew might have been more successful."

I take it you've never been to Austin. Nice town, not much of a football team though

yea, but they are the equivalent to a MAC school. :)

Austin has no other competing teams in the market whereas Columbus has the Jackets and Buckeyes to share the corporate dollars with.

from a ridership perspective, the streetcar really does not touch the key destinations or enough of them. It does not go to the Casino or convention center or all the major hotels. An NKY link would be beneficial too. There are just not enough key points that spur ridership. In addition, given the fact that with traffic, it crawls, it is easier to walk in most cases. I know when I go to lunch during the day from my office at 5th Street, I would never take the streetcar to the Banks or in my case back from the Banks because it is quicker to walk (and better exercise). If I go to OTR for happy hour, it is sometimes more preferable to walk or move my car if it is going to be a later evening. Also, a quick Uber ride is sometimes more appealing too. Ultimately, from a ridership point, it just does not connect enough people to places of interest. adding some spurs to NKY and up to Clifton and around uptown would remedy this, but this is also pretty expensive for a non-regional transportation plan.

Given the franchise setup with MLS being different than MLB and NFL, this law may not apply as well as could when it was originally adopted to cover those other sports. Also, I can see how this would be unenforceable since it effectively diminishes the value of the team compared to other cities and states.

http://www.marcusmillichap.com/research/researchreports/reports/2017/12/07/special-report-new-tax-plan Not too much. The biggest difference is going to extending the amount of time the asset needs to be held to receive capital gain treatment from 1 year to 3 years (this is on investment property). Also the Senate Bill seems to extend the depreciation timeline from 27.5 years to 30 years for investment property. Also, it indicates that with the increase in the standard deduction, it will lead to more renters and less buyers which is good for apartment owners. Health care real estate like nursing homes and medical office buildings is going to be hurt by the elimination of specialty health care bonds. Student housing could be slightly hurt too as less graduate students looking for housing.

I agree...a CA buyer would be more likely to pay more. I also agree with your value assessment, although my bottom is closer to 11 million. Did you see the pictures with the listing? Most of the properties look uninhabitable. Waaaaaaaaaay overpriced. I'd be shocked if there were even 5 gems in the entire lot. When you are buying a portfolio like this it does not matter how pretty the places are, it only matters what their rental income is. These properties are being purchased for their ability to generate income and income alone. IF they are pretty great, but if not who cares. They do not even care if it appreciates in value because it is all about the income from these properties. Yes, it is maybe priced a bit high. If they sell them individually, it will sell for around $21 million. If you sell the portfolio, as Jake pointed out, it will sell for a discount in likely the $14-$17 million range, depending on the buyer and where they are located. CA buyers will pay more I agree with you. CA buyer would pay the most. Also agree on value assessment, although my bottom is closer to 11 million. You arrive at that number because are probably looking at it through the eyes of an Ohio resident (which is a compliment). I think just off the cuff without seeing the number I think 14-17 million taking a 9-12 CAP rate Given a large portfolio, this is going to appeal to money on the coasts and is designed to appeal to a larger investor like that. In addition, there is a lot of 1031 money out there that needs to land somewhere and this gives it a great landing spot for those who need to find a spot for it. 1031 buyers are often apt and willing to overpay for a property to avoid the tax hit now in order to get tax savings on the back end or be able to get out of it at a later time without taking a loss. There are a number of complexities here for people playing that game.

Did you see the pictures with the listing? Most of the properties look uninhabitable. Waaaaaaaaaay overpriced. I'd be shocked if there were even 5 gems in the entire lot. When you are buying a portfolio like this it does not matter how pretty the places are, it only matters what their rental income is. These properties are being purchased for their ability to generate income and income alone. IF they are pretty great, but if not who cares. They do not even care if it appreciates in value because it is all about the income from these properties. Yes, it is maybe priced a bit high. If they sell them individually, it will sell for around $21 million. If you sell the portfolio, as Jake pointed out, it will sell for a discount in likely the $14-$17 million range, depending on the buyer and where they are located. CA buyers will pay more

This is an average of $77k per property. This is not too unreasonable for 240 single family houses and 30 multis. Depending on the neighborhood, some houses may be 20-30k range but some are going to be well over $100k probably depending on location.