jbcmh81

Personally, I see some obvious issues. For example, in their 2012 estimates, they have Akron growing and Dayton and Toledo shrinking, and then for their January 2013 estimates, it's just the opposite. And much of the growth elsewhere, especially in Columbus and Cincinnati, has slowed drastically. Just seems to be a lot of inconsistency. Granted, they are not official estimates anyway. It will be interesting to compare them to the census ones when they come out next month.

First, some recaps of previous census and Business Journals estimates. July 1st 2011 Census Estimate and Change from the April 1st, 2010 Census Akron: 701,456 -1,744 Cincinnati: 2,138,038 +7,887 Cleveland: 2,068,038 -8,957 Columbus: 1,858,464 +21,928 Dayton: 845,388 +3,886 Toledo: 650,266 -1,163 Youngstown: 562,739 -3,034 Business Journals April 1st 2012 Estimates and the Difference from the 2011 Census Estimate Akron: 703,376 +1,920 Cincinnati: 2,147,876 +9,838 Cleveland: 2,063,508 -4,775 Columbus: 1,881,610 +23,146 Dayton: 840,193 -5,195 Toledo: 647,029 -3,237 Youngstown: 558,877 -3,862 And the most recent Business Journals estimate for January 1st, 2013 and Change from their April 1st, 2012 Estimate Akron: 700,614 -2,762 Cincinnati: 2,150,524 +2,648 Cleveland: 2,057,610 -5,898 Columbus: 1,889,595 +7,985 Dayton: 874,067 +6,874 Toledo: 648,120 +1,091 Youngstown: 558,250 -627 And their projection and date for each metro's next population milestone. Akron: 700,000 2/6/2014 Cincinnati: 2,160,000 2/20/2014 Cleveland: 2,050,000 1/29/2014 Columbus: 1,890,000 1/8/2013 Dayton: 850,000 8/17/2015 Toledo: 640,000 9/29/2018 Youngstown: 550,000 8/20/2015

Yeah, it looks like just about everywhere slowed down in December from November, probably a consequence of the uncertainty caused by Congress' fumbling of the fiscal cliff issue. Now that that's resolved (for now), I think things will gradually start picking up again. The good news is that, even with the small downturn, the numbers were up from the year before, and that's what I prefer to look at anyway. Month to month is too volatile to really get a sense of long-term trends.

The annual averages come out in March.

Okay, so here's quick, but late November 2012 jobs report. Ohio Unemployment Rate: 6.8" City Unemployment Rates and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Columbus: 5.5% -1.1 Akron: 6.6% -1.7 Cincinnati: 6.9% -1.5 Dayton: 8.0% -1.7 Toledo: 8.0% -1.0 Youngstown: 8.6% -1.9 Cleveland: 8.9% -0.7 County Unemployment Rates and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Franklin: 5.5% -1.1 Summit: 6.0% -1.4 Hamilton: 6.4% -1.3 Mahoning: 6.9% -1.3 Cuyahoga: 7.0% -0.2 Montgomery: 7.0% -1.3 Lucas: 7.4% -1.0 Metro Area Unemployment Rates and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Columbus: 5.5% -1.0 Akron: 6.0% -1.2 Cincinnati: 6.4% -1.2 Cleveland: 6.7% -0.1 Dayton: 6.7% -1.3 Toledo: 7.2% -1.0 Youngstown: 7.4% -0.7 Metro Area Civilian Labor Force and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Columbus: 965,800 +6,600 Cincinnati: 1,104,700 +5,500 Youngstown: 267,700 +2,500 Akron: 375,200 +1,400 Toledo: 316,500 -4,000 Dayton: 407,900 -4,200 Cleveland: 1,053,700 -31,000 Metro Area Employment and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Cincinnati: 1,034,600 +18,600 Columbus: 912,800 +16,100 Akron: 352,600 +5,800 Youngstown: 247,900 +4,300 Dayton: 380,600 +1,400 Toledo: 293,800 -500 Cleveland: 982,900 -27,800 Metro Area Unemployment and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Cincinnati: 70,200 -13,000 Columbus: 53,000 -9,400 Dayton: 27,300 -5,500 Akron: 22,600 -4,300 Toledo: 22,800 -3,400 Cleveland: 70,800 -3,200 Yongstown: 19,800 -1,800 Metro Area Non-Farm Jobs and Change from November 2011, best to worst. Cincinnati: 1,025,300 +23,900 Columbus: 951,200 +20,200 Cleveland: 1,006,500 +10,600 Akron: 330,300 +7,000 Youngstown: 228,200 +4,000 Dayton: 384,600 +2,300 Toledo: 305,400 +300

I wouldn't look too much into it. Great info as always. The famous cliche, you're human and we make mistakes. Ok, so you left out some census tracts for a few areas... there was a lot of info to be had so there was bound to be a few areas accidentally left out. Keep posting this stuff, it's interesting. Thanks. I enjoy doing this stuff, and there's no intent to deceive or otherwise get things wrong. However, if anyone wants to see a particular tract or group of tracts and their trends, just let me know and I can probably come up with something.

Here is the updated Greater Downtown Graph with tract 7 for Cincinnati included.

Some harsh reactions... I knew that that Greater Downtown tracts would be the greatest point of contention because there are really no defined boundaries for them. I looked over discussions on this topic here and elsewhere and used the tracts most often used. I didn't figure everyone would agree with them, but yeah, no good deed I guess. BTW, not including tract 7 for Cincinnati was a mistake. I originally planned to have it included, but for some reason just missed it when I went to make the graphs.

If the urban movement lasts for any significant time, you might end up with a patchwork of growth rather than a defined outward spread of development. The central core is going to be the most popular destination while further out suburbs are going to be revitalized, most likely, due to their overall condition, housing stock and location. So you'll see some come back while others decline.

Unfortunately, there's really not. I have seen no site anywhere that lays out census tracts for cities and measures their demographic/population changes over time. I have all the 1950 tracts for the 3-Cs as far as population goes through the 1930s, but I haven't done demographics because they don't go back as far. The census used to count everyone as either black or white. Asians, for example, weren't really counted separately until the 1980s. So doing demographics for the tracts are only really useful the last 30 years. In any case, if you or anyone else is interested in a particular downtown track and its population trends over the decades, just let me know and I can give you those numbers.

I started with 1950 for a couple of reasons. 1950 was the census that most city populations reached their peak, so I wanted to measure how they had changed since then. 1950 was also the last real census before the suburban sprawl explosion, so the 1950 area represents the real urban core of the 3-Cs. I only projected out to the 2020 or 2030 because those are census years, and because the numbers are measuring the change from 2010, not 2013. The 2020 projections are probably going to be much closer to reality than the 2030 numbers, anyway.

Finally, here is the CBD alone. First, the population and change since 1950. This is followed by a breakdown of this population and change by the tracts that make up the CBD of each city. A note about Cincinnati's tracts is that #4 and #6 were combined into #265 after 2000.

Now for the Greater Downtown Area. Here are the tracts I used for each: Cincinnati: 2, 9, 10, 11, 263, 264, 265, 268 Cleveland: 1033, 1036, 1042, 1071, 1077, 1078, 1082, 1083, 1084 Columbus: 21, 22, 29, 30, 36, 38, 40, 42, 52, 53, 57 I'm sure not everyone will agree with these, but yeah... First, the overall population and change since 1950 and a projection out to 2020, again based on trends.

Next is, based on how the tract populations are trending, what each city's 1950 boundaries might look like in 2020 and beyond.

Next, I looked at all the census tracts that made up the 1950 boundaries. The next 3 charts show each city's total tracts that made up the boundaries by decade, along with the # of tracts that had growing population vs that total by year. The last graph is the % of the total tracts growing by year.

I collected a bunch of numbers based on census tracts and recently came up with a bunch of graphs showing trends for 3 different areas for each city. The 1950 Boundaries, the Greater Downtown Area and the Central Business District only. First, the 1950 Boundary population through 2010, followed by the decade population change.

Yeah, I've been slacking off on my updates with this. I'll try to update for November and December soon.

The site would be sooo much better if it showed previous census numbers as well as change over time.

Thanks guys.

I've been trying to find a mapping site to make my own demographics maps, but haven't had much luck. Does anyone know of a good site for something like this?

Tower or transit... hard to know what would end up coming first at this rate.

Sooo glad it's not red-brick boxes. Something Columbus lacks is modern design recently, so this is definitely good news and it will be a huge addition to the area. You know the Downtown area has momentum when long-languishing projects are having their rebirth, such as this and the Hubbard site. Only bigger news is if the city gets another Downtown tower.

These are the long term maps of the % Change for total state votes 1992-2000 and 2000-2012.

This is a long-term change map for 1980-1992 for the change in the % of total state Democratic votes. Total Democratic votes grew 232,528 from 1980 to 1992. Here are how the counties changed during that time as a % to that number.

And the rest...