Evergrey

Milwaukee can't... the Biz Journal ranked Milwaukee as one of the Most Extended Sports Markets and it wasn't even counting the Packers. The Brewers and Bucks have been very weak economically for a long time. St. Louis is somewhat of a special case. It's EA has a TPI about $35B more than Cincy... the Cardinals have somehow managed to become a top-tier franchise despite a small market... but the Blues are always in terrible shape... they even threatened a move to Saskatoon a couple years ago. They draw poorly and have poor finances. The Rams have been selling out... but St. Lou did lose an NFL franchise only 20 years ago... which supports the analysis. St. Louis is also one of the most overextended sports markets. Most of the overextended sports markets have some teams that are flouishing and some teams that are starving.

A similar example would be Buffalo... which has a TPI of $44B... but Rochester's EA is right next door... which is well known to be solid Buffalo sports territory and has a TPI even larger than Buffalo at $45B... the proximity (about 1 hour drive) of Rochester certainly has a significant impact on the economic viability of Buffalo sports... but the returns of the Rochester TPI are diminished due to geography distance... despite it being a relatively short distance. The adjacent Ontario territories also have an impact... but there are other factors that would diminish the impact... such as the obvious fact that it's a seperate country. If some economic genius could come up with a forumla that would account for these factors... that would be wonderful. But for now... I guess this is the best we have... you just can't lump Dayton's TPI in with Cincy and say... we have $120 billion or whatever of TPI... Dayton's impact would be less than its available TPI for a Cincy franchise.

It's well known that the Packers are a special case due to many factors and that they draw primarily from the much larger Milwaukee market. They used to even split home games between Green Bay and Milwaukee. In addition, an NFL franchise does not demand that much TPI due to infrequency of events and a much broader base of appeal than the other sports. Green Bay is part of the Appleton-Oshkosh-Neenah EA, which has a TPI of $25B, which suprisingly isn't that much of a shortfall for the required TPI of an NFL franchise.

Indeed... that "growth" you're seeing... is not really population growth... but an increase in developed land

You make a good point... and I agree with you. However, I still think EA's are the most logical way to look at the financial viability of a sports franchise. That WV county is tiny... 25k people... so it doesn't make much of an impact concerning population or TPI... it's so small that it probably doesn't have enough of an economy to be independent... and due to transportation infrastructure... it is more economically related to Columbus than it is to nearby Charleston, WV. Columbus, being a much more powerful market, can project its economic might farther than Charleston, WV. But I agree that it is probably a rarity for somebody from Mason Co, WV to attend a Blue Jackets game... but it's such a tiny component of the Columbus EA... that it doesn't matter much. Dayton is a highly developed economic node that is relatively independent of Cincy. But I agree that people in the Dayton EA are overwhelmingly fans of Cincinnati teams. But most major EAs have adjacent secondary EAs they can draw from. Pittsburgh teams can draw additional revenue from the Morgantown WV EA, State College PA EA, Erie PA EA and Charleston WV EA and even portions of the Cleveland EA (which includes Youngstown) and DC EA (western MD). So comparing EA TPI is not perfect... but I think it's generally assumed that most EAs have secondary EAs in their "catchment area". But secondary EAs offer diminishing returns. That $41 billion TPI in Dayton is really not reflective of the support Dayton is able to provide to Cincy teams... this is due to geographic distance... the farther away you go... the less revenue a franchise can generate from that territory. But I will say that I think the proximity of Dayton's EA is more significant than most EAs... including my Pittsburgh example with Morgantown, Youngstown, etc.... because Dayton is relatively close and heavily populated... at about 60% the TPI of Cincy. So I do think Cincy's market is a bit "larger" than its TPI would indicate... how much bigger? That's hard to quantify.

Reread the stats. Pittsburgh's EA does not have the necessary Total Personal Income to support its present teams: NFL's Steelers, MLB's Pirates and NHL's Penguins. In fact, while Cincy ranks as the 8th most over-extended sports market, Pittsburgh ranks 4th. Pittsburgh's TPI of $96B would be barely enough to support the Pirates alone... or it would be sufficient to support the Penguins AND Steelers. The income shortfall is one reason 2 of our franchises are at an economic disadvantage. And while I think an EA's TPI is the No. 1 factor in determining the economic viability of a franchise, I think there are significant external factors to consider... as I stated earlier. Pittsburgh's TPI limitations are probably a major reason the Pirates have been so pitiful on the field and in attendance for so long. The Pirates, Reds, Brewers, etc. simply cannot compete with the Red Sox and Yankees because of the revenue limitations of a small market. Even when they were successful, they drew poorly... which could probably be partially blamed on the sterile environment of Three Rivers Stadium. The new stadium had the opportunity to give the franchise a considerable boost... but the Pirates' inept ownership squandered that. However, they're still making a tidy profit despite consistent on-field failure. The Penguins are a different story. They are not threatening to leave for Kansas City because of poor attendance... they sell out almost every game. They're threatening to move because their outdated arena limits their revenue potential. Kansas City is an even smaller market that will instantly become the most over-extended sports market in America if the Pens arrive. However, KC is offering the Pens a sweetheart arena deal that could cushion the blow of moving to a smaller market considerably. In the long term, I don't think this will work out for the Pens... and either they... or another team... like the Royals... will be forced to relocate due to the extreme TPI shortfall. Hockey, I think, is a slightly different animal... it's more of a regional niche sport than the other sports... and while Houston has ample TPI to support a hockey franchise... would it really flourish in a place that never sees snow and has no hockey history? Pittsburgh had a few down years when they were the worst team in the league... but it's usually one of the top hockey markets in the US when it comes to local television ratings, attendance, merchandise sales, etc.

I would venture to say the Census bureau would disagree with you on this. They use commuting patterns to determine MSA/CSA's...and Cincinnati-Dayton are much more interconnected than one would think. I don't have a doubt in my mind that Cincinnati-Dayton will be combined by the next Census (2010). Not to mention I'm not so sure how much weight can be put into the EA's that you keep mentioning. They just don't seem to have 'real world' applications. My argument is that if Cincy and Dayton were interconnected enough to be merged into a CSA... the Bureau of Economic Analysis would already have the two cities merged into a single Economic Area... but they're not. There is not a single instance where a CSA or MSA is split amongst 2 or more Economic Areas. I don't doubt there's significant economic interaction and cross-metro commuting... but I doubt it's great enough for the CSA merger to take place. Commuting is related to the economic structure of the region. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis: "BEA's economic areas define the relevant regional markets surrounding metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas. They consist of one or more economic nodes - metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas that serve as regional centers of economic activity - and the surrounding counties that are economically related to the nodes." Economic Areas, while not discussed much on these forums, are much more relevant to decisions made in the business world. The EA represents a regional marketplace based on economic activity. That is why, for instance, the Business Journals study of "Oversaturated Sports Markets" used Total Personal Income of Economic Areas instead of Metro Areas. I'm not privy to the inner workings of the methodology... but I guess according to the BEA's numbers... Cincy and Dayton fall short of being merged into a single EA. This can possibly be due to the fact that Dayton, despite proximity to Cincy... is strong enough on its own to remain its own economic center... instead of being a Cincy satellite. If there was enough commuting going on between Cincy MSA and Dayton MSA to form a Cincy-Dayton CSA... there would already be a Cincy-Dayton EA. That is purely my speculation based on analysis of numbers... so we'll have to wait and see what the Census and BEA decide on the fate of the SW Ohio megalopolis.

What does critically analyzing numbers have to do with being "negative" about a region? Does every post have to be, "Yeahhhhhh CIncI rox and can do anything cuz it's the greatest!!!!!1111111"? I love SW Ohio... get off my back!

Actually, I think it's unlikely that Dayton and Cincy metros merge in the near future... considering they don't even share a common Economic Area at present. They are close... and there's overlap... and there's suburbs in between the cities where you don't quite know if you're in Cincy or Dayton territory... but the cities and their economies seem to be relatively independent of each other at present... it's more of a small megapolitan area... a continuous string of large metros that have relationships but have central nodes that function independently... like BosWash on a MUCH smaller scale

An MLB franchise demands a Total Personal Income from the immediate Economic Area of about $90 billion... due to the unique economics of the sport and extreme frequency of events. Cincinnati's Economic Area has a shortfall of $15 billion. Heck, Pittsburgh's TPI is only $6 billion above the MLB threshold and has another two pro franchises on top of that... and we wonder why our MLB teams suck every year ;) NFL, NHL, NBA all demand TPIs in the $30-$40 range. Dayton has the TPI to support 1 one of those franchises. Cincy does have the best "Per Capita Personal Income" in Ohio... but it's TPI is half that of Cleveland's Economic Area and less than Columbus. That said... it's one thing for a market to have TPI... but it's up to the citizenry to choose how to spend it. There are other external factors in play when it comes to the economic viability of a franchise... and I do believe Dayton's nearby TPI does contribute significantly to the economic health of Cincy franchises... but it's hard to quantify that. Most areas have nearby secondary markets they can draw from... but it is diminished due to geographic distance. Cincy is probably affected by this more, since the TPI of the adjacent Dayton market is about 60% that of the immediate Cincy market.

Indeed... in addition, I wouldn't say "almost everyone in West Virginia" is a Reds fan... it depends where you are in WV... the Huntingdon area certainly is Reds country... but northern WV is Pirates country... the Pirates also have sizable fanbases in Parkersburg and Charleston. The Eastern Panhandle is Orioles/Nationals territory. According to a Sports Illustrated poll done for all 50 states a few years back... the Pirates are WV's favorite MLB team... unfortunately WV doesn't have any nearby quality baseball clubs to choose from lol

wait a sec... you titled these skylines "Better Than Chicago"? lol ;)

wow... it almost approaches Atlanta!

Shhhh... I was supporting Dayton's argument for a pro sports franchise anyways! ;) (maybe you could get MLS)

Probably Charlotte... which is the No. 1 city for Black Americans. Anything else would be a downgrade. ;)

btw, has anyone been able to find the full list of cities? it would be interesting to see where Cinci ranked (if they were included)

lol Whoa... lay off the mindless boosterism. None of you are discussing the issues (besides KJP)... the results of the survey, the hard numbers (poverty rate, crime rate, etc.), problems, solutions... or even analyzing the methodology... we can fling mud at the BET organization all we want... but how does invalidate the 39% poverty rate? If you don't think poverty, crime rates, educational attainment are appropriate indeces for determining "quality of life for Black Americans"... than explain why.

bwahahahahahahahahahahaha :lol:

damn, colday looks badasssss in that picture

yeah, give me a holla if a Steubenville chapter is established!

That's certainly one area where I'm glad my city is affiliated with Toledo... go Block Company!

yeah... but it's not like they're reading a "quality" newspaper... ;)

Of course Charlotte, the world's greatest and proudest city, is 1st... always take these things with a grain of salt ;) http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070215/dcth062.html?.v=61 BET.com Announces New Research That Ranks Charlotte, NC #1 'Best City' with Columbus, Ohio and Washington, D.C. Tied for 2nd WASHINGTON, Feb. 15 /PRNewswire/ -- BET.com announced today the results of a multi-city research project to determine the Best Cities in America for Black Families. Taking the #1 spot as Best City is Charlotte, NC. Tied for second place in the Best Cities category were Columbus, Ohio -- the top city in BET.com's 2001 research project -- and Washington, D.C. For more information, click above link.

Dayton's Economic Area does have sufficient Total Personal Income to support 1 of the following franchises: NFL, NHL, NBA, MLS. However, the Total Personal Income of the Cincinnati Economic Area is insufficient to support both the Reds and Bengals, in fact, it's TPI is insufficient for the Reds alone, which is by far the most demanding of the major sports leagues. Cincinnati ranks as one of the most over-extended sports markets. http://www.bizjournals.com/specials/2006/0213/sports_overextend/8.html

I agree with you on many points... especially about what may become a new urban renaissance... though a number of continuing trends need to be reversed... such as the overwhelming percentage of job creation that takes place on the "edge"... and the disparity between the city school district and suburban districts... ... however, I would be reluctant to claim that Cincinnati's population has "stabilized" due to the likely possibility of the historic scenario I outlined previously. We'll get a better idea of how Cincinnati's population is really faring when we get the 2010 Census results. Until then, it's speculation about that undercounted 15kor whatever it was. Was it a historically undercounted population... or did Cincy suddenly reverse decades of heavy population loss... a trend not only prevelent in Cincy but it's peer core cities in the Midwest and Northeast? I'll put my money on the former.