DarkandStormy

4.427 million new jobless claims this past week. That's now more than 26 million jobs lost in the last five weeks. The # of jobs "created" since the Great Recession? Just over 22 million.

The figures being cited are for contracts, not actual barrels, as I understand it. June contracts are going for $22 a barrel.

Following the FIFA model it sounds like. Trying to finish '19-'20 regardless of timeline. I don't think we will have a vaccine or Ab testing in time to allow 18k+ crowds in arenas. I wonder if they will go to remote sessions to do playoffs. I know the NHL has talked about it. Pick a small college town and isolate the teams and refs in a hotel or dorms. Then play the games in small arenas with no fans. Games can still be broadcast. But it's about the safest way to isolate the players and coaches. Limits travel as well. So maybe they pick, I don't know, some really small/more remote schools.

The math is pretty simple. The metro area added ~11.7% (depending on where we end up with the census) to its population since 2010. If you just extrapolate out 11.7% growth every decade, you get to ~2.97m residents by 2050. The metro area has only ever added residents decade over decade (going back to 1900, at least). The only sub-10% growth decades were the 1970s (8.5%) and the 1930s (7.1%). Average decade growth since 1980 is nearly 14%. Maybe there was more math put into the model, but you can also just take average growth on a % basis and get to 3m by 2050. The math/projection isn't all that wild.

TSLA is a cult/meme stock where "fundamentals" don't matter. There's a reason I avoid trading it.

Yeah, chasing points/miles only makes sense if you can pay your CC in full and on time and don't accrue interest. But if you're doing on sort of regular (or even irregular) travel, they can offset a bulk of those costs if you plan it out strategically.

True - and I do think his series is probably good for folks perpetually in high APR consumer or credit card debt. But if you want to buy a house, and you've followed Ramsey's advice to eliminate all lines of credit (credit score to 0), you'll never get approved for a loan.

The only points I have with airlines are Southwest (which don't expire, and we already made BANK off them signing up for two credit cards and getting the Companion Pass - points left are like 8k but we burned through >150k the last two years flying to a bunch of domestic locations) and United (~150k -> trying to save up for a big international flight, though our timetable is now likely to move back considerably). Neither Southwest nor United miles ever expire (for now). The rest are stored with a bank - Chase, Barclays, Capital One, etc. We can either transfer them to an airline/hotel if it makes sense, or just use the points within the bank's system. Dave Ramsey's advice is to take your credit score to 0. I don't advise people listen to Dave Ramsey once they get beyond the "debt is bad, we should spend less than we make" portion of his series.

National growth has been slowing since 2008.

Figures may vary depending on which source(s) you use/trust: 2019 - 2,122,271 (+18,077 / +0.86%) 2018 - 2,104,194 (+21,613 / +1.04%) 2017 - 2,082,581 (+30,389 / +1.48%) 2016 - 2,052,192 (+24,624 / +1.21%) 2015 - 2,027,568 (+26,203 / +1.31%) 2014 - 2,001,365 (+27,304 / +1.38%) 2013 - 1,974,061 (+26,853 / +1.38%) 2012 - 1,947,208 (+20,870 / +1.08%) 2011 - 1,926,338 (+19,972 / +1.05%) 2010 - 1,906,366 Only one year of 30k growth, but easily the lowest growth year of the decade - both in terms of total population added and on a % basis.

^^Looks gorgeous!

https://electrek.co/2020/04/12/tesla-robotaxi-plan-2020-pending-regulatory-approval/ Musk says Tesla is awaiting regulatory approval for their robotaxis or whatever the fancy term they're using now. Still reiterates a 2020 timeline, but I'm going to go out on a lamb and say Tesla will have 0 self-driving robotaxis on the road on 12/31/20.

Ohio says its labor force is 5,829,100. And prior to covid-19, unemployment was 4.1% or 240,800. That's seasonally adjusted. Not adjusting, it was 276,400 / 5,836,400 = 4.7%. So 16.1% seasonally-adjusted. 16.7% unadjusted.

Yeah, something like 10% of the labor force is out of work in the last three weeks. Then again, the stock market has many factors that impacts it, including what the Fed does or doesn't do. And stocks have been on a tear in the last couple weeks, mostly on the expectation that the covid-19 impact will be less than initially feared. At least, that's what I've been taking away from headlines and such. Who knows the real reason lol.

Not really. Market is up based (largely) on news of Federal Reserve announcing $2.3 trillion more in funding.

We are some 4 seasons behind. But glad to hear it keeps getting better (minus S4 finale you say)!

I don't pay attention to the DJIA at all. It's a worthless metric. I pay closer attention to the S&P500, NASDAQ, and a "total market" index. Of course, like I said, none of these are perfect leading indicators of where the economy is going. But they're almost never lagging.

I listed three sources, but ok. Like I said, it's not perfect. Because nothing is.

https://www.moneycrashers.com/leading-lagging-economic-indicators/ https://www.edmondsun.com/news/business/the-stock-market-tends-to-be-a-leading-economic-indicator/article_6b16a076-cc0b-11e8-b432-1fbf156cf048.html https://www.thebalance.com/leading-economic-indicators-definition-list-of-top-5-3305862

The market isn't the economy. It's not always perfect, but the market is more often a leading indicator than a reactor.

Yep, poor take by me. Gotta own it.

Paper losses aren't real until you sell...

You can just tax loss harvest paper losses if no tax-sheltered (IRA, HSA, 401k).