Everything posted by DarkandStormy
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Off Topic
Ugh, probably because all the frat bros with their Afflicted T's take over and act like big s*** in that swamp. I hope the North Market Tower and proposed hotels & apartments clean up that area a bit. I've only been recently as part of a Cancer Crawl, so maybe it's changed, but it always seemed like DB central down there.
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Columbus Blue Jackets Discussion
CBJ sending 2nd round pick to Vancouver as part of signing John Tortorella - the archaic NHL rule was ended months after CBJ signed Torts, who was still technically under contract with Vancouver at the time he came to Columbus (even though Vancouver fired him). Ridiculous.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
Good discussion. Please see above posts for examples.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-pending-home-sales-drop-140000871.html U.S. pending home sales drop for second straight month "Sales activity, however, remains constrained by tight inventories, which are driving up home prices. Housing inventory has dropped for 23 straight months on a year-on-year basis."
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
I just laid out a clear example of how it nets to basically the same thing. Note that not all of the investments would go into "the market" - it would be a mix of stocks and bonds. I even gave a real mutual fund you could invest in "conservatively" and its worst 3- and 5-year performance. I also gave examples of new cars with interest rates at 0.0% or 0.9% over 48-72 month loans. You would prefer to deplete your emergency fund by $6-$8k for something that isn't an emergency? That was your suggested alternative, no? Anyway, I already went through a couple examples...by the end of the loan, you come out in virtually the same position EXCEPT through financing you get to keep your emergency fund in tact.
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This Is Why You're Fat!
http://time.com/4793832/the-weight-loss-trap/ A long (but good) read on the various paths to weight loss - and trying to keep it off.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
I just picked 7% if you prefer more aggressive investments. It's not borrowing money to invest in a volatile return though - in these scenarios, I'm keeping the down payment you would have paid on the car in a very conservative fund. Heck, the VWINX mutual fund referenced has only had one three-year rolling average below 2% - most of the three-year averages are 5-6% or more. If you have $7k in cash, yet choose to finance, and then keep the $7k in a conservative portfolio, you're not "borrowing to invest" - you could pay off the balance of the loan at any time (this probably is not true for most people financing a $20K+ car). https://www.capitalone.com/auto-financing/rates/ - Capital One, you can get rates ~4% or slightly less for used cars. http://www.bankrate.com/auto.aspx - Various options here in the 3-4% range. Like I've said, this is all dependent on a steady income over the life of the loan, actually investing your excess monthly income, and choosing a conservative portfolio wisely. My personal preference would be to not deplete my emergency fund by $7K - I'd rather keep the $7K for actual emergencies, knowing full well if I lose my job tomorrow, I could pay off the loan if need be.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
1) I looked at a 5 year-window because that is how long a typical finance loan takes to pay off. At year 60, the loan is paid off, you have the same asset, etc. so you have the same exact scenario from year 60-end of useful life of the car. 2) I picked $18.6 because that's the cost of a new average car - certainly some cheaper options and then some "luxury" options above as well. 3) We can re-run using a $7k cost of a car. On a used car, options are available for financing at 3%. Over a 3-year period, that's a $204 monthly payment. Let's also assume $400/month in discretionary spending, the remaining $196/month gets invested. At 4% annual returns, that builds up to ~$7,518. You're done paying the car off after 36 months, and end up with, call it a ~$5k asset. In addition, the $7k purchase price you've kept in conservative investments over the 36 months, which has built up to ~$7,900. So you started with $7k, and over 36 months have built up a net worth to $20,418. If you, instead, paid the $7k in cash up front and then put the $400/month in discretionary spending back into your emergency fund until you built it back up, you wouldn't have the $400/month to invest until month 18. $400/month from there in the same 4% fund would net you ~$7,650 in returns. Assuming you invested the emergency fund contributions in the same 4% mix, you'd have built up ~$7200 plus your additional investments. At the end of 36 months, you'd have about $20,100 in net worth. It's really quite a wash. Paying in cash, if you use an emergency fund, leaves you depleted until you build your fund back up. So it's a personal preference - financing allows you to keep your emergency fund in tact, while paying in cash leaves you more of a monthly cash flow to invest or spend elsewhere. If you stick with purely conservative investments across the board, you come out ahead a few hundred dollars ahead by financing. If your non-emergency fund investments are more aggressive and average 7%, then you still come out slightly ahead by financing. (Again, like I said, this is all dependent on the fact that you actually invest consistently and stay disciplined)
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
http://www.tanskysawmilltoyota.com/Toyota-Incentives-in-Dublin-OH-Serving-Columbus-and-Powell.html This is just one example - Toyota is offering 0.9% or 0.0% on more than half a dozen vehicles right now (some 60 months, some 72 months). (Full disclosure - I qualified with a credit score in the 750s)
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
So I finally ran a quick simulation of this. Loan amount $18.6K over 60 months, at a 0.9% interest rate (this is a common offer from many of the dealerships on new vehicles, at least from what I've seen...some offer less if they're trying to move inventory). That's 5 years of $317 monthly payments. Now, in this scenario, I assume $500/month in left over income from one's job, typically invested in a conservative stock / bond mix which yields about 4% annually. Let's cover paying in cash first. Assuming you paid $18.6K in cash and kept the vehicle for 5 years, you don't pay $420 in interest. I also assume you take that $500 and begin building back up your emergency fund (cash) which earns nothing - it takes you nearly 38 months to build your emergency fund back up $18.6K. From there, you have 22 months to invest $500/month, and in a conservative mix earning 4% annually, you'd end up with ~$11,873 at month 60, as well as an asset in the car (worth, we'll call it $10K) - $21,873 in net worth, plus the original $18.6K in cash we built back up for a total of $40,473 of net worth (minus car maintenance costs, which would offset anyway with the next scenario). In scenario 2, we opt to finance the entire vehicle purchase at the offered 0.9% interest rate. We can keep that $18.6K in the emergency fund, earning the 4% annually - if we do that, the $18.6K becomes ~$22,800 at month 60 if we don't have to use it at any point. We could also keep it in cash and have peace of mind that we're covered for any emergency up to $18.6K. So back to the $500/month after tax discretionary income - if the $183 excess ($500 - $317 car payment) is continually invested for 60 months, that will become ~$12,200 at month 60. Asset of the car is the same, of course. So that's $22,200 in positive net worth, plus (potentially) $22,800 by keeping the initial cash invested. Net worth potential is $45,000. Financing CAN make sense if you are disciplined enough to keep investing and have a stable job/income stream over the next 60 months. Obviously, it only makes sense if you get a really low interest rate and have excess monthly income to invest (and are disciplined enough to consistently do it). The $45K potential also assumes you're comfortable putting your emergency fund in a conservative mix of stocks/bonds - the 4% is just a conservative average. I'd probably consider something like VWINX from Vanguard (two-thirds bonds, one-third high-dividend stocks) - it's only had one five-year rolling returns average below 4% (2008: 3.36% annual 5-year return). So the results could be even more pronounced if we assumed a ~7% annual return from that fund.
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Cleveland Cavs Discussion
The Warriors have 4 of the top ~20-25 players in the league. The Cavs have 3. In an open draft of the two rosters, it'd go LeBron, Durant, Curry, Irving, Klay, Draymond/Love. So the Cavs will need to pick up the slack with TT, JR, Korver OR have LeBron go insane for a couple games.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
He even notes how much money he made over the two-year period ($216,000 in rent payments!) but then complains because there was a little trash and some dog poop. Dude...the cost to "clean" in between tenants is minimal compared to what you're making and you should have built that in to your financial model anyway.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-sec-shouldn-apos-t-201908770.html Why the SEC Shouldn't Reject 4x Leveraged ETFs
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
I read around some more on that site and all of his articles come across the same way. There's even a post about how to "stay under the radar" and connect with the common folk. I have a feeling he's some Silicon Valley millionaire and his target audience is people who have a net worth north of 7 figures. At least, that's what I've gathered after reading a few articles and his follow-ups in the comments. Probably why he's complaining about his tenants, while not entirely taking responsibility for letting them pay rent late 8 times in 24 months.
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Cleveland Cavs Discussion
The Warriors kept their three best players, and probably six of their top eight (on a team that came up just four points shy of winning the title last year) and then added a top 5-6 player in the entire league. The Cavs simply turn it "off" at times, mostly in the regular season. Their GAF meter can go up and down depending on when they feel like playing hard. They've lost one game in the entire postseason. I'd say their GAF meter is pretty damn high right now.. Just the outside perception. They're also highly reliant on one player (LeBron) whereas the Warriors would still be OK without one of their Big 4. Probably lose but they'd have a chance at least.
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Cleveland Cavs Discussion
The Warriors kept their three best players, and probably six of their top eight (on a team that came up just four points shy of winning the title last year) and then added a top 5-6 player in the entire league. The Cavs simply turn it "off" at times, mostly in the regular season. Their GAF meter can go up and down depending on when they feel like playing hard.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
Then why have $8k sitting in cash at all?
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
In this scenario, you've just drained your emergency fund by $8k to buy a vehicle (probably not a smart move?) and so even though you have more cash flow that could be invested, you'll likely put most of it to building back up your emergency fund, no? I would borrow money to invest in the market IF my interest rate on financing is below 5% (and I have a steady income to offset downturns in the market). Obviously, in this case, there are other factors - total amount to purchase the vehicle, fuel efficiency, reliability of the car/brand, car history if its used, etc. etc. Personally, I wouldn't finance a brand new $30K+ vehicle because if I lose my job, there goes my steady income for monthly payments and I wouldn't want to take that much out of my investments to cover my outstanding liability on the vehicle. If it's an amount less than that and the interest rate is low, then yes that's a move I'd make, if only because I know I'd have the assets to cover $8-$12K should I lose my job/income stream.
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Cleveland Cavs Discussion
Warriors in 6. They have too much damn talent with Durant taking the easy path, joining the best team in regular season history. He'll get roasted either way...joined an already existing super team to win a title, or couldn't win a title on a super team.
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Cleveland Cavs Discussion
Cavs v. Warriors Pt III LeBron passed Jordan in career playoff points.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
If you invested the $8K over your financing period (4 or 5 years?) you'd come out ahead of the $10K you referenced. For financing to be a viable option you either have to actually invest the cash and beat the interest rate and/or have a consistent, steady income over the financing period, and also invest along the way. If rates tick back up above 5-6%, you'll see a lot less borrowing.
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Personal Finance / Investing Thread
Hahaha he picked the tenants...did he not expect college kids to have parties and ignore lawn care? Hilarious.
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Ohio Census / Population Trends & Lists
http://www.dispatch.com/news/20170525/were-no-14-columbus-tops-indianapolis-in-population We’re No. 14! Columbus tops Indianapolis in population Columbus moves up to #14 (remains at #33 metro) in city population based on '16 estimates.
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Ohio Census / Population Trends & Lists
They were talking in terms of percentage increase. I know, but they were using that suggesting that those suburbs were destroying the city in growth, but it's actually the opposite. New Albany added less than 500 people last year, but because there are only 10K people, it can seem like it's booming. Columbus adding 22x that number means that the core city isn't doing as well?? That doesn't make sense to me. I think the point was (or should have been) that the suburbs are also seeing substantial growth. Obviously in totals it can't match Columbus because Columbus' starting point is ~860K vs. 30K or less. Ironically, Grandview and Hilliard have been bolstered by a lot of mixed-use developments and I imagine we'll see Dublin pop up on this "suburb growth" list for 2017 and 2018 as the Bridge Street project comes together.
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Ohio Census / Population Trends & Lists
They were talking in terms of percentage increase.