jonoh81

So far, the big story is a complete domination of growth in urban areas and cities and the decline of virtually everywhere else.

Columbus one of 14 cities that added more than 100,000.

Interesting that Chicago grew by about 50,000. New York blew everyone away by adding like 600,000.

Metro-wise, Columbus grew between 10%-19.9%, Cincinnati 0.0%-9.9% and Cleveland also 0.0%-9.9%. Again, nothing specific yet.

They are showing maps now. The county growth map for Ohio looks like mainly Central and SW Ohio counties grew. Most of the state's counties declined. Franklin grew in the category 10%-19.9%, but we don't know exactly what it is yet.

The conference has started, so we should be getting numbers within the hour.

There's a lot of misinformation in this post. Through 2019, if we are comparing cities, Columbus was estimated to have added more international immigrants than Austin has since 2010, +33,546 to +30,254. Given that Austin has an additional 200 square miles within its city borders that Columbus doesn't have, that is even more impressive. Austin does get more in the greater metro overall, though. Somalia is not actually the main nation of origin for Columbus immigrants, and it's nowhere near the fastest growing. Total 25 Foreign-Born Migration Nations of Origin to Columbus in 2019 1. India: 12,472 2. Mexico: 10,165 3. Somalia: 9,044 4. China: 7,159 5. Ghana: 5,656 6. Ethiopia: 3,559 7. El Salvador: 2,309 8. Nepal: 2,258 9. Korea: 2,233 10. Vietnam: 2,142 11. Kenya: 2,032 12. Dominican Republic: 1,994 13. Philippines: 1,566 14. Japan: 1,465 15. Morocco: 1,464 16. Sierra Leone: 1,428 17. Iraq: 1,340 18. Nigeria: 1,295 19. Liberia: 1,283 20. Cameroon: 1,069 21. Russia: 1,067 22. Cambodia: 1,041 23. Guatemala: 984 24. Laos: 957 25. Honduras: 948 Top 25 Fastest-Growing Nations of Origin 2010-2019 1. India: +4,482 2. Ghana: +3,275 3. China: +2,843 4. Nepal: +2,110 5. Ethiopia: +2,102 6. Somalia: +1,498 7. Morocco: +1,203 8. Dominican Republic: +1,190 9. Iraq: +1,041 10. Cameroon: +870 11. El Salvador: +767 12. Eritrea: +647 13. Vietnam: +646 14. Kenya: +641 15. Nigeria: +594 16. Laos: +530 17. Philippines: +512 18. Honduras: +477 19. Sudan: +440 20. Liberia: +431 21. Macedonia: +363 22. Iran: +308 23. Russia: +267 24. Burma: +240 25. Venezuela: +229 Somalia is the 6th fastest-growing and 3rd largest. China and Ghana are both poised to pass Somalia in the coming years, making it 5th largest. And for the record, refugees aren't just shipped places. In most cases, they have a choice on where they would like to go, especially if they already have family connections somewhere. As others have already pointed out, you're way off in terms of the population difference between the metros. Austin lost nearly 12,000 Mexican foreign-born residents 2010-2019, so proximity didn't matter. Mexicans still made up about 40% of Austin's foreign-born population in 2019. It's not that diverse in this regard. Columbus' largest group- Indians- make up just 11% of its foreign-born population.

For the record, I think a city "brand" is vastly overblown in attracting people. Changing the name would be little more than a gimmick, IMO, and would continue to do a poor job of showing all the positives that Columbus has to offer. Branding the city as this or that also seems limiting. Outside of being the "country music capital", what is Nashville really known for? Given that we know people move for things like jobs, education, upward mobility and family reasons, a specific cultural or social characteristic wouldn't move the needle much on relocations. Nashville gets far more hype in the media just on the fact that it's growing quickly than it does its branding. Columbus needs to do a better job of getting the word out on why it's an attractive city, which I agree with you it doesn't do a great job at. That said, it has made some efforts like advertising the city around the Northeast, which has seemed to work as domestic migration from there has been on the increase in the last decade. Columbus had FMMF... which is a great example of just trying to copy what other cities are doing and failing miserably at it.

I don't really think Columbus is much like Nashville in terms of growth patterns. They're kind of the opposite, actually. The last time I ran the numbers a couple years ago, Nashville- which is combined with its county- received just under 28% of the entire metro's growth. A similar merger between Columbus and Franklin County would include about 73% of the total metro growth, and that number has actually climbed closer to 76% through 2019. Columbus by itself pulls in about 53% of the metro growth, almost 2x what Nashville does despite all that extra area being included. Columbus' growth is much more central core/urban focused and Nashville's is overwhelmingly suburban/exurban/rural. Austin in somewhere in the middle, with the city being about 40% and Travis County being about 57% of the metro growth overall. So from an urban growth perspective, Columbus does much better than its Sun Belt peers. As for immigration, the one thing holding Columbus back from getting a lot more- including international- is just name recognition. It's definitely changing, but many people still don't even think of it when considering a relocation. I don't think its location in the colder North really matters that much. Just like with the tax myth, climate plays a very small role in relocations.

Yes, the data will be out on the 12th.

If the point is to "spur growth" and help bring back the neighborhood, I'm not sure why this large site doesn't have a project at least double the height/density as what is being proposed. This is one area of the city without a large, outspoken gaggle of NIMBY whale watchers blocking everything, so they could definitely get away with doing a 6-story project or more. Is it just a matter of funding or do they think they just need to go with something smaller because they don't think there will be all that high demand for the area?

The more these out-of-touch neighborhood commissions reject good density projects, the more I just advocate for developers to bypass them altogether and just go directly to the city. I know they want to try to be good and try to work with the neighborhood, but this nonsense has to stop. I could understand if we were talking about tearing down historic buildings, but this? Come on. It's also a reminder that we desperately need updated zoning. Variance requests are being used as an excuse to block better development.

You're overthinking it. The 2010-2019 county estimate had it growing by just over 153,000. Columbus was getting about 76% of the county's growth. If Franklin County grew by 160,000, the city would get about 122,000 of that growth to be around 908K-909K. That would be well within expectations. We're also dealing with estimates and should not take them as exact figures.

So going through the numbers for Franklin County tracts... Between 2010-2019, tracts within the county added approximately 30,606 housing units. Occupied units increased by 53,648. This means that all new units were filled plus an additional 23,039 units that had been vacant in 2010 were occupied by 2019. There still were estimated to be 43,643 vacant units across Franklin County in 2019, but clearly vacant housing had a significant decline the past decade around Columbus and its suburbs. The average tract vacancy dropped from 13.4% to 9.1%. Now, this data is derived from adding up the individual tract figures using the 5-year ACS, but the overall county numbers show a similar pattern. If we just used the overall county figures... Between 2010-2019, Franklin added 36,681 units. Occupied units increased by 59,667, meaning that 22,986 previously vacant units were filled during those 9 years. Vacancy dropped from 12.3% to 7.4% These numbers are from the 1-year ACS.

Let's just bring back the Columbiad.

That day or before then if the last news was accurate.

There is a chance, though very unlikely, that the Ohio undercount was in the rural areas. Sometimes when areas are in decline, the decline can end up being overestimated. That said, I do think we'll see the undercount in the population centers.

Austin also has about 100 more square miles in its borders than Columbus does. At the same size, Columbus would be similar or, I believe, a bit larger than Austin, though Austin is still growing faster overall. Its metro area is a whopping 1,000 square miles larger than Columbus, despite having fewer counties within it. Columbus would easily be larger with the same size metro. Incidentally, Columbus would still easily be the largest city at comparable sizes to the other 2-Cs. Cleveland would be the largest metro at the same size as the other 2, however.

I like the juxtaposition between the talk about high population growth and the enormous amount of unusable green space and surface parking all serving a single, standalone building. These suburbs are really not learning anything.

For the record, those numbers seem to be based on the census data. 10,549 is the 2019 census estimate for Lincoln Village. Housing did show a modest increase, again according to the Census. Blacklick Estates Total Housing Units 2010: 3,311 2019: 3,501 Change: +190 Total Occupied Units 2010: 2,980 or 90.0% 2019: 3,364 or 96.1% Total Vacant Units 2010: 331 or 10% 2019: 137 or 3.9% So in Blacklick, nearly 200 new units were added over those 9 years, but despite that, the number of vacant homes dropped by almost 59%. Lincoln Village Total Housing Units 2010: 4,142 2019: 4,299 Change: +157 Total Occupied Units 2010: 3,826 or 92.4% 2019: 4,151 or 96.6% Total Vacant Units 2010: 316 or 7.6% 2019: 148 or 3.4% It's a similar story here. Total units did increase modestly, but occupancy increased enough to cover all new units and 53% of vacant units. As to the size of the households in these two places... Blacklick housing units by occupant number 1-Person 2010: 498 2019: 762 2-Person 2010: 980 2019: 1083 3-Person 2010: 587 2019: 551 4+ Person 2010: 918 2019: 968 Blacklick saw its largest rise in the single-person units, with 2-person being second. So most of its group seems to being single people or couples with no children. Lincoln Village housing units by occupant number 1-Person 2010: 1247 2019: 1234 2-Person 2010: 1228 2019: 1313 3-Person 2010: 520 2019: 738 4+ Person 2010: 826 2019: 866 In Lincoln Village, the opposite is true. Single-person households declined, while multi-person households increased the most. This may have something to do with the larger immigrant population in that part of the city, which tend to have larger households overall. You raise an interesting question about vacancy across the city. Seems like I have my next data collection project and map to create.

I said 917K-925K. Awhile back, I was thinking closer to 930K, but there's been so much weird stuff the past several years that there is more uncertainty than normal. The pros for a higher number include housing demand being white hot and previously abandoned neighborhoods filling up. Estimates have also shown Columbus growing at a historically high rate the last decade, and estimates have tended to be too low versus other census results. The Ohio undercount also probably works in Columbus' favor given it is the state's population growth heart. Going against the higher number include the census data being played around with too much before, during and after the count, international migration perhaps not being as strong as it normally is given recent immigration policies, economic conditions that may have stifled some relocations and the off possibility that the estimates themselves were too high. Simply put, there have been a lot of unusual circumstances going into this, so I am tempering my expectations some, and still may end up being a bit on the high side. Now, that won't mean Columbus doesn't actually have more people than what the official numbers show, but we are guessing what they will show. Whatever the ultimate number, I expect Columbus to be near Cleveland's all-time figure, with Columbus ultimately becoming the largest city in Ohio history by 2020 or soon after.

Yes, it'll likely show up on the front page of the Census site, and on the 2020 Census data page. There is no mention on the calendar about exactly when it will arrive, whether on a date before 8/16 or on 8/16 itself. The last news release just stated that it would be no later than then, so it could technically show up at any time.

The irony is that 10 angry boomers protesting in the street have more power to control the city's future than many thousands of minorities doing the same.

At the earliest, I'm thinking sometime in September. That's when the redistricting info has to be sent to the states, so we'll probably see something then. Edit: So the definitive answer is that all data down to the block level will be released by August 16th. The data will appear on the old ACS data portal by September 30th. So we’ll be able to see everything within 3 weeks.

It's happening everywhere. I hate that the media refuses to address any of the reasons this is happening. This isn't Columbus-specific. It's not related to funding. It's not "Democrat-run city" specific. It's not even US-specific. This is largely pandemic-driven, which has caused more social and economic upheaval than arguably any other event in most of our lifetimes. It's also stressed everyone out. That's also why you're seeing huge increases in the number of violent incidents in places like planes, etc. In America, where everyone has an arsenal, there are few rules and where guns regularly fall into the hands of ill-intentioned people, the gun violence during such times was inevitable. Crime will decline when this whole situation has settled, but that could take some time given so many idiots out there ensuring it keeps going. For the record, Columbus is not currently on track to beat its record homicide rate set in the early 1990s, even with the increased shootings. That may change, but at the pace right now, it'll fall short.