jonoh81

Columbus has added about 509,000 to its metro since 2000. There is really no great way to project out 30 years with accuracy, but assuming similar growth over the next 30 years, the metro would be between 2.8-2.9 million by 2050. The numbers from MORPC are used to do regional planning. Better to overestimate than under in that case.

The last estimate year before the decennial census always seems to be on the lower end. I don't think it's anymore complicated than that.

Columbus has positive migration from outside Ohio as well, in increasing numbers from more states, which is a long-term trend. Most metros get the majority of their domestic migration from their home state, btw, even in the Sun Belt. And it doesn't have anything to do with international migration, which has been a significant part of annual growth- and which helps cities with negative domestic migration from seeing greater losses. In fact, not to make this too political, but cities/metros that rely heavily on international migration to pad their numbers might do worse this year- or the next 4- given the anti-immigration stances of the current administration. International migration has collapsed quite a bit the last few years, and will deepen this year because of that and the obvious virus issues that limit all movement.

Actually, in economic downturns, far fewer people move. If anything, both domestic and international migration will be way down this year and possibly next. Areas that don't have strong natural growth in terms of births will likely see much lower growth the next few years... or stronger losses.

I've heard rumors and such here and there, but there doesn't seem to be any significant push for it with city leadership.

Yeah, but development tends to make them go up more. It's not like the Short North's property values have cratered since 2010.

"We are not opposed to development" is like the NIMBY anthem.

Why do only anti-development people run for these commissions? There seem to be very few development commissions in the city that not only are generally favorable to development, but encourage development to push the envelope. Instead, most of full of suburban-minded buzzkills that clap themselves on the back for helping to make Columbus housing ever more unaffordable.

Doing away with single-family exclusionary zoning does work, though. And it's not simply about tearing those houses down. In many neighborhoods, particularly historic ones, that wouldn't happen. What the zoning would do is allow either larger or higher density projects to be interspersed within them where space allows, projects that are often blocked by NIMBYs because of zoning restrictions. Just because the zoning restrictions are removed does not mean that every location is going to work out. It just provides for more opportunities for density when and where appropriate. I personally don't like that type of English housing or neighborhood. Row housing can have a place and work well when incorporated into mixed neighborhoods,, but I'm not a fan of the endless monotone design and heights, the lack of office/retail, the lack of green space, the lack of trees, etc. It's an ugly, soulless neighborhood to me, and just the English version of sprawl, albeit with a bit higher density than the American version.

All these issues and more are why the city desperately needs to change its entire zoning code rules. No more of this "we'll alter the codes for one corridor in a neighborhood to slightly less strict guidelines" kind of thing, but real, city-scale changes. They need to do away with single-family only zoning, remove height guidelines in most areas and eliminate all parking requirements beyond Downtown. And the Land Bank should focus more on rehabilitation than demolition. These moves won't totally solve the supply problem, obviously, but they'll help.

Doubt it. Polaris is such a disaster with very clearly little planning involved in building up the area. It's just sprawl. A lot of it would have to be rebuilt from scratch to make something urban out of it.

I'm curious how they're going to do the layout of the site if they're planning more buildings. It's a challenging setup with the existing buildings covering more than 1/3rd of the site and assuming they're going to put in a garage somewhere. Maybe they'll try to go for some height (meaning more than 5 stories).

Yeah, I think Easton becoming a new neighborhood with towers and such would ultimately be a net positive for Columbus. There is so much demand, so much population growth, that it won't hurt anything.

It hasn't happened yet, and a lot can go wrong.

https://www.dispatch.com/business/20200227/zoning-restrictions-threaten-eastonrsquos-plans-to-grow-upward The shopping center sought zoning approval this week for a 20-story hotel on a parking lot at 3871 Stelzer Road, at the northwest corner of Stelzer and Easton Way, next to the Barnes & Noble bookstore. Easton officials say they have no definitive plans to put a high-rise on the site, but want approval to build far above the 60-foot height restrictions currently in the area’s zoning code. The Columbus Board of Zoning Adjustment granted the request Tuesday in a case that could have far-reaching implications for Easton’s development. Looks like they are actually serious about the residential, retail and office towers at Easton. As the article says, they don't have a specific plan for this particular parcel yet, but are seeking the variance so that they can build something of this or greater height later on. The title also doesn't really reflect the content. The variance was approved and the local commission stated they don't have any issue with greater height.

Least surprising news ever.

I did units, not permits. Permits for projects could've been issued the previous year, but constructed in another, and permits don't tell us how many units are being approved. Also, just because something is permitted doesn't necessarily mean it gets built. 2019 is also preliminary on that site.

Here are the census numbers for MSA. Single-Family Units Akron 2010: 657 2011: 637 2012: 611 2013: 666 2014: 685 2015: 792 2016: 905 2017: 901 2018: 1011 Cincinnati 2010: 2824 2011: 2521 2012: 2641 2013: 3308 2014: 3218 2015: 3477 2016: 3938 2017: 4440 2018: 4282 Cleveland 2010: 1853 2011: 1585 2012: 1925 2013: 2241 2014: 2282 2015: 2533 2016: 2618 2017: 2749 2018: 2733 Columbus 2010: 2887 2011: 2420 2012: 2913 2013: 3495 2014: 3505 2015: 3523 2016: 4157 2017: 4295 2018: 4493 Dayton 2010: 674 2011: 737 2012: 911 2013: 815 2014: 742 2015: 857 2016: 957 2017: 1083 2018: 1138 Toledo 2010: 507 2011: 442 2012: 551 2013: 732 2014: 598 2015: 649 2016: 694 2017: 704 2018: 785 Multi-Family Units Akron 2010: 79 2011: 485 2012: 7 2013: 25 2014: 79 2015: 175 2016: 4 2017: 19 2018: 199 Cincinnati 2010: 382 2011: 848 2012: 963 2013: 1022 2014: 1988 2015: 1184 2016: 1929 2017: 2025 2018: 1794 Cleveland 2010: 88 2011: 182 2012: 407 2013: 500 2014: 644 2015: 405 2016: 435 2017: 478 2018: 248 Columbus 2010: 1557 2011: 2310 2012: 3898 2013: 4868 2014: 3547 2015: 4032 2016: 4480 2017: 4597 2018: 4947 Dayton 2010: 84 2011: 15 2012: 141 2013: 107 2014: 36 2015: 123 2016: 325 2017: 168 2018: 439 Toledo 2010: 286 2011: 161 2012: 265 2013: 142 2014: 477 2015: 66 2016: 133 2017: 267 2018: 311 Total Units Akron 2010: 736 2011: 1122 2012: 618 2013: 690 2014: 764 2015: 967 2016: 909 2017: 920 2018: 1210 Cincinnati 2010: 3206 2011: 3369 2012: 3604 2013: 4330 2014: 5206 2015: 4661 2016: 5867 2017: 6465 2018: 6076 Cleveland 2010: 1941 2011: 1767 2012: 2332 2013: 2741 2014: 2926 2015: 2938 2016: 3053 2017: 3227 2018: 2981 Columbus 2010: 4444 2011: 4730 2012: 6811 2013: 8363 2014: 7052 2015: 7555 2016: 8637 2017: 8892 2018: 9440 Dayton 2010: 758 2011: 752 2012: 1136 2013: 850 2014: 778 2015: 980 2016: 1282 2017: 1251 2018: 1577 Toledo 2010: 775 2011: 603 2012: 816 2013: 874 2014: 1075 2015: 715 2016: 827 2017: 971 2018: 1096 The metro numbers aren't available for 2019 yet.

For those wondering where the numbers came from: https://socds.huduser.gov/permits/ I only ran them for city limits. Most of the time, you will see permit numbers from the census, and generally for MSA or county, so I thought this was a different way to look at them. The census site is here: https://www.census.gov/construction/bps/

So not exactly population-specific, but it's related to construction within cities. Here were the approved construction permits by building type and total units in each of Ohio's major cities since 2010. 2019 numbers are preliminary. The figures are for city limits only. Single Family Units Akron 2010: 65 2011: 33 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 0 2015: 0 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0 Cincinnati 2010: 82 2011: 84 2012: 83 2013: 90 2014: 99 2015: 96 2016: 160 2017: 182 2018: 98 2019: 135 Cleveland 2010: 91 2011: 86 2012: 110 2013: 132 2014: 96 2015: 130 2016: 137 2017: 144 2018: 114 2019: 78 Columbus 2010: 716 2011: 667 2012: 723 2013: 770 2014: 724 2015: 729 2016: 649 2017: 650 2018: 555 2019: 500 Dayton 2010: 27 2011: 90 2012: 153 2013: 44 2014: 7 2015: 66 2016: 38 2017: 21 2018: 7 2019: 0 Toledo 2010: 39 2011: 33 2012: 32 2013: 42 2014: 26 2015: 18 2016: 15 2017: 18 2018: 20 2019: 16 Multi-Family Units Akron 2010: 62 2011: 51 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 0 2015: 0 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0 Cincinnati 2010: 99 2011: 170 2012: 367 2013: 74 2014: 502 2015: 120 2016: 573 2017: 534 2018: 632 2019: 992 Cleveland 2010: 36 2011: 43 2012: 67 2013: 94 2014: 28 2015: 42 2016: 37 2017: 36 2018: 34 2019: 19 Columbus 2010: 1391 2011: 1642 2012: 3286 2013: 3565 2014: 2918 2015: 3186 2016: 3071 2017: 3579 2018: 3742 2019: 2839 Dayton 2010: 0 2011: 6 2012: 0 2013: 17 2014: 0 2015: 6 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 167 2019: 0 Toledo 2010: 42 2011: 5 2012: 65 2013: 63 2014: 467 2015: 5 2016: 5 2017: 5 2018: 5 2019: 5 Total Units Akron 2010: 127 2011: 84 2012: 0 2013: 0 2014: 0 2015: 0 2016: 0 2017: 0 2018: 0 2019: 0 Cincinnati 2010: 181 2011: 254 2012: 450 2013: 164 2014: 601 2015: 216 2016: 733 2017: 716 2018: 730 2019: 1127 Cleveland 2010: 127 2011: 129 2012: 177 2013: 226 2014: 124 2015: 172 2016: 173 2017: 180 2018: 148 2019: 97 Columbus 2010: 2107 2011: 2309 2012: 4009 2013: 4335 2014: 3642 2015: 3915 2016: 3720 2017: 4229 2018: 4297 2019: 3339 Dayton 2010: 27 2011: 96 2012: 153 2013: 61 2014: 7 2015: 66 2016: 38 2017: 21 2018: 174 2019: 0 Toledo 2010: 81 2011: 38 2012: 97 2013: 105 2014: 493 2015: 23 2016: 20 2017: 23 2018: 25 2019: 21 Some interesting notes would be that Cleveland's units are dominated by single-family housing instead of multi-family, the opposite of the other 2-Cs. And single-family housing is still pretty stagnant overall in most places.

I like it, which means I'm going to be really underwhelmed when the designs/heights for the mixed-use part of all this is presented.

I imagine one of the warmest, least snowy winters on record is helping out in terms of quick progress.

That whole area was just an extension of Harrison West/VV in terms of being a historic, largely single-family neighborhood. Everything west of Neil and Harrison and south of 1st Avenue was demo'd in 1960 as part of "slum clearance". We're talking hundreds of buildings. At one point, everything west of Neil north to OSU was proposed to be demolished, but luckily it didn't happen (though OSU and Battelle have whittled things down over the years). Most of the current development in this area is mid-century crap. It would be a perfect area to completely rebuild over time, including restoring at least some of the original street grid. While the loss of more affordable housing (for the area) would be a negative, there is nothing stopping any new development from including affordable units, especially if it was mandated. As it stands, this entire area is a lot of wasted space in a prime location. It was built according to 1960 suburban standards.

I wish they could incorporate the old retail building at the corner of Briarwood. It's really the only decent building on the site, is in good condition and there's really no reason it should be demolished.

One would think that with a waiting list that long, they would try to do more than 56 units.