jonoh81

For Columbus, here was the estimated total year-over-year growth 2010-2018 (keep in mind, these are updated with each new year's estimate) Census 2010-July 1, 2011: +13,489 7/1/11-7/1/12: +12,189 7/1/12-7/1/13: +15,113 7/1/13-7/1/14: +13,916 7/1/14-7/1/15: +13,272 7/1/15-7/1/16: +11,906 7/1/16-7/1/17: +14,845 7/1/17-7/1/18: +10,770 Typically, each year's new estimates have raised previous years by a few thousand, so it's reasonable to expect that the 2018 number will also be too low. The average growth per year has been +13,188. Assuming that 2018's population will be adjusted upward, that will probably take us to around 895,000 for the 2018 revised estimate. And assuming a fairly consistent increase that follows the same patterns of previous years, we can expect a 2019 estimate of around 908,000 with a further adjustment of around 911,000. Ultimately, I would expect a 2020 figure to show higher growth than the estimates, as was the case during the 2000s with the 2010 Census. My guess is that Columbus will hit between 925K-930K in 2020. Realistically, the city has likely already surpassed Cleveland's historic peak to become the largest city in Ohio history.

No. It would also include the Caribbean islands that aren't Spanish-speaking. So like the Bahamas, Virgin Islands, etc.

That wouldn't have stopped people from going to commission meetings and speaking out against it. The GV Commission wouldn't have had any real say, but residents would have. High Street is definitely the edge of GV to most people and more visible than Livingston, even if the border technically stops at Pearl.

Yeah, I can't imagine a hotel concept would be profitable with a dozen or so rooms.

Saying that a project that, design-wise, could "be built anywhere in the city" is a curious argument to make when demanding that it look exactly like everything else in the surrounding neighborhood. The building it would replace looks nothing like the rest of the neighborhood, and the current proposed design incorporates a lot of brick, the primary material of GV construction. People aren't going to be happy unless there is no development at all or it's 1-2 stories max. Where was this outcry with the High Street Panera, btw? I know that was an adaptation of an existing building, but it's interesting that there didn't seem to be the strong opposition to what is essentially a fast food outlet and parking lot. Was that maintaining the historical heritage of the neighborhood?

Going into the foreign-born population a bit further, here were the origins of immigrants by city, this time for 2000 and 2018. Foreign-born Population from Europe and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Cleveland: 8,796 41.2% Columbus: 7,017 14.7% Cincinnati: 3,851 30.9% Akron: 2,687 38.9% Toledo: 2,020 21.3% Dayton: 901 27.8% Youngstown: 870 54.2% Canton: 590 43.6% 2018 Columbus: 8141 6.5% Cleveland: 4844 22.2% Cincinnati: 2738 13.3% Akron: 1580 11.6% Toledo: 496 5.5% Canton: 347 10.7% Dayton: 347 4.7% Youngstown: 337 34.5% Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +1124 Canton: -243 Dayton: -554 Akron: -1107 Cincinnati: -1113 Toledo: -1524 Cleveland: -3952 Foreign-born Population from Asia and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Columbus: 22354 46.9% Cleveland: 6213 29.1% Cincinnati: 4326 34.7% Toledo: 3847 40.6% Akron: 3099 44.8% Dayton: 903 27.8% Youngstown: 338 21.1% Canton: 296 21.9% 2018 Columbus: 49185 39.2% Cleveland: 10351 47.4% Akron: 8391 61.5% Cincinnati: 5599 27.2% Toledo: 3597 39.8% Dayton: 2575 35.2% Canton: 542 16.7% Youngstown: 196 20.1% Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +26831 Akron: +5292 Cleveland: +4138 Dayton: +1672 Cincinnati: +1273 Canton: +246 Youngstown: -142 Toledo: -250 Foreign-born Population from Africa and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Columbus: 9530 20.0% Cincinnati: 1781 14.3% Cleveland: 1075 5.0% Toledo: 638 6.7% Dayton: 522 16.1% Akron: 197 2.9% Canton: 89 6.6% Youngstown: 50 3.1% 2018 Columbus: 45092 36.0% Cincinnati: 7113 34.5% Dayton: 1573 21.5% Akron: 1312 9.6% Cleveland: 622 2.8% Toledo: 416 4.6% Youngstown: 277 28.4% Canton: 95 2.9% Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +35562 Cincinnati: +5332 Akron: +1116 Dayton: +1051 Youngstown: +227 Canton: +6 Toledo: -222 Cleveland: -453 Foreign-born Population from Oceania and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Columbus: 216 0.5% Cleveland: 96 0.4% Cincinnati: 71 0.6% Akron: 37 0.5% Toledo: 28 0.3% Youngstown: 14 0.9% Canton: 0 0.0% Dayton: 0 0.0% 2018 Columbus: 452 0.4% Cincinnati: 241 1.2% Cleveland: 211 1.0% Toledo: 41 0.5% Akron: 0 0.0% Canton: 0 0.0% Dayton: 0 0.0% Youngstown: 0 0.0% Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +236 Cincinnati: +170 Cleveland: +115 Toledo: +13 Canton: +0 Youngstown: -14 Akron: -37 Foreign-born Population from Latin America and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Columbus: 7373 15.5% Cleveland: 4796 22.4% Toledo: 2257 23.8% Cincinnati: 2031 16.3% Dayton: 817 25.2% Akron: 576 8.3% Canton: 347 25.7% Youngstown: 293 18.3% 2018 Columbus: 21331 17.0% Cleveland: 5520 25.3% Cincinnati: 4434 21.5% Toledo: 3988 44.1% Dayton: 2816 38.5% Akron: 2219 16.3% Canton: 2184 67.4% Youngstown: 166 17.0% Change 2000-2018 Columbus: +13958 Cincinnati: +2403 Dayton: +1999 Canton: +1837 Toledo: +1731 Akron: +1643 Cleveland: +724 Youngstown: -127 Foreign-born Population from North America and % of Total Foreign-born Population 2000 Columbus: 1223 2.6% Toledo: 685 7.2% Cincinnati: 401 3.2% Cleveland: 396 1.9% Akron: 315 4.6% Dayton: 102 3.1% Youngstown: 40 2.5% Canton: 30 2.2% 2018 Columbus: 1138 0.9% Cincinnati: 467 2.3% Toledo: 359 4.0% Cleveland: 290 1.3% Akron: 147 1.1% Canton: 73 2.3% Dayton: 0 0.0% Youngstown: 0 0.0% Change 2000-2018 Cincinnati: +66 Canton: +43 Youngstown: -40 Columbus: -85 Dayton: -102 Cleveland: -106 Akron: -168 Toledo: -326

Agreed. The fact that one of the commissioners is rejecting a project height that adheres to the existing zoning because they just don't like the height is ridiculous. When you're facing that level of totally unreasonable NIMBYism, it's time to go around them altogether. It's what I wish the developer with the 2nd and High project would've done instead of backing down to the "but muh sunshine" people. I understand some pushback when developers aren't trying to work with the neighborhood, but this is just one of those times when irrational opposition has stopped all constructive dialogue.

God forbid people care about what gets built.

I gave specific reasons why I'm not in love with it. The design is pedestrian and looks far too much like Hilton 1.0, 2.0 and everything in the AD. It's a supersized brick box, wholly unoriginal and safe. The height reduction never should've happened and the square footage increase doesn't really make up for it IMO- why couldn't both have happened? It's more disappointing because they promised it wouldn't happen. Having so much of the project be offices won't activate the area for a longer part of the day as much as if that space was used for more residences. The project should've also included making surrounding streets pedestrian only as the city talked about, but the car is still king even here. Columbus isn't doomed, I just think too many people are comfortable with the status quo and accepting whatever they get in terms of development. I think we're so used to being disappointed that we'll take anything perceived as better. NMT is undoubtedly better than most projects the city gets, I just don't think it's good enough to overlook the rest. If anything, I think a big, skyline changing building should get even more scrutiny.

For some reason, the race data that I posted isn't available for them. There is overall white, black, etc. but not separated out from Hispanic. Hispanic can be of any race, so it's not quite the same.

In terms of growth, that's just not usually how it works. When domestic migration or natural growth are bad, international migration tends to be the only source of growth for many cities. If there is no international, there usually isn't domestic, either. International migration tends to be a lot more tolerant to cities that are in or have declined. That goes for individual neighborhoods too. Linden, the Morse corridor, etc. would be much worse off without international residents repopulating them and opening up new businesses. I don't think OSU is preventing US students from applying or being accepted based on the relatively small number of international students. Many students live in dorms, and are required to live on Campus through their Sophomore year now, so those students aren't taking up any off-campus housing whatsoever. The rest wouldn't even be enough to cover a partial year's population growth. Columbus is severely underbuilt, but a few thousand student rooms wouldn't solve anything. Not certain what would happen in reality? The city of Austin gained 32,113 foreign-born residents between 2010-2018, growing from 148,431 to 180,544.

Because if you have bad domestic migration or bad natural growth rates, immigration can be a stop-gap for overall decline If immigration is also negative, it becomes even harder to see growth.

Any other data that would be interesting to see?

Here are the main counties for foreign-born for total and % of total population. 2010 Cuyahoga: 93,232 7.3% Franklin: 111,686 9.6% Hamilton: 43,363 5.4% Lucas: 18,401 4.2% Mahoning: 7,174 3.0% Montgomery: 19,429 3.6% Summit: 23,365 4.3% 2018 Cuyahoga: 92,504 7.4% Franklin: 155,586 11.9% Hamilton: 51,957 6.4% Lucas: 15,502 3.6% Mahoning: 4,151 1.8% Montgomery: 25,903 4.9% Summit: 28,429 5.2% Change 2010-2018 Franklin: +43,900 Hamilton: +8,594 Montgomery: +6,474 Summit: +5,064 Cuyahoga: -728 Lucas: -2,899 Mahoning: -3,023 Immigration is a huge part of modern growth, so some of these numbers should be concerning.

Probably not as many as you think. Most OSU students are still native-born. I'll take a look at counties.

Total Foreign-Born Population and % of Total Population 2010 Akron: 8,524 4.3% Canton: 1,343 1.8% Cincinnati: 16,531 5.6% Cleveland: 17,739 4.5% Columbus: 86,663 11.0% Dayton: 5,102 3.6% Toledo: 11,559 4.0% Youngstown: 3,695 5.5% 2018 Akron: 13,649 6.9% Canton: 3,241 4.6% Cincinnati: 20,592 6.8% Cleveland: 21,838 5.7% Columbus: 125,339 14.0% Dayton: 7,311 5.2% Toledo: 9,038 3.3% Youngstown: 976 1.5% Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +38,676 Akron: +5,125 Cleveland: +4,099 Cincinnati: +4,061 Dayton: +2,209 Toledo: -2,521 Youngstown: -2,719

So the demographic estimates for 2018 came out today. I'll do a few general stats. Not all stats were available for all places. Population By Race- City Only Total White, Non-Hispanic and % of Total Population 2010 Cincinnati: 143,120 48.2% Cleveland: 137,977 34.8% Columbus: 466,615 59.3% Toledo: 177,341 61.8% 2018 Cincinnati: 150,693 49.8% Cleveland: 131,010 34.1% Columbus: 486,431 54.5% Toledo: 157,967 57.4% Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +19,816 Cincinnati: +7,573 Cleveland: -6,967 Toledo: -19,374 Total Black, Non-Hispanic and % of Total Population 2010 Cincinnati: 131,909 44.4% Cleveland: 208,528 52.6% Columbus: 217,694 27.7% Toledo: 75,033 26.1% 2018 Cincinnati: 122,261 40.4% Cleveland: 178,909 46.6% Columbus: 259,803 29.0% Toledo: 74,630 27.1% Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +42,109 Toledo: -403 Cincinnati: -9,648 Cleveland: -29,619 Total Asian, Non-Hispanic and % of Total Population 2010 Cincinnati: 5,938 2.0% Cleveland: 5,392 1.4% Columbus: 31,734 5.6% Toledo: 3,125 1.1% 2018 Cincinnati: 6,999 2.3% Cleveland: 10,595 2.8% Columbus: 54,902 6.1% Toledo: 2,802 1.0% Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +23,168 Cleveland: +5,203 Cincinnati: +1,061 Toledo: -323 Total Hispanic and % of Total Population 2010 Cincinnati: 8,710 2.9% Cleveland: 36,067 9.1% Columbus: 44,359 5.6% Toledo: 21,346 7.4% 2018 Cincinnati: 10,843 3.6% Cleveland: 47,144 12.3% Columbus: 53,935 6.0% Toledo: 12,617 4.6% Change 2010-2018 Cleveland: +11,077 Columbus: +9,576 Cincinnati: +2,133 Toledo: -8,729 Total Other, Non-Hispanic and % of Total Population 2010 Cincinnati: 7,230 2.4% Cleveland: 8,276 2.1% Columbus: 26,631 3.4% Toledo: 10,134 3.5% 2018 Cincinnati: 11,889 3.9% Cleveland: 16,123 4.2% Columbus: 40,806 4.6% Toledo: 14,949 5.4% Change 2010-2018 Columbus: +14,175 Cleveland: +7,847 Toledo: +4,815 Cincinnati: +4,659

Nothing. Everything is perfect and I was totally wrong for questioning it. High fives all around.

So which are the appropriate projects to be critical of? At what height/density does it become acceptable? It seems to me that it's much more acceptable to be critical of a Nicholas type project than it is one like the market tower, and yet they both can be just as flawed. People get googly-eyed over towers, but if they're suffering from a lot of the same problems that small projects are, it's just as relevant to be critical of both. Years ago when Columbus couldn't get a project past 5 stories, I was told the *exact* same things I'm being told now- that while it may not be perfect, it's much better than other projects and shouldn't be the hill to die on. We're stuck with an awful lot of 4-6-story buildings in prime locations now. They're still getting built. Obviously North Market tower is significantly taller and denser, but the same question exists for it that was asked about HighPoint, the Nicholas, the Swan Cleaners building, pretty much all of Neighborhood Launch, the Matan, LC at RiverSouth, 80 on the Commons, the Short North UDF building, the Mercantile building, etc... is it the best project possible for the site? Is it the best that could've been done? For the North Market tower, it's not just about the height. It's about lowered expectations. I don't want to be put into a position to lower my expectations for a city I'm from and love.

Great. I just don't want to be in the position of being the dissent all the time, and I think that's what's happening. I keep thinking of that old poster Columbusite/Keith. No thanks.

Pretty sure I explained what it all has to do with transit. Anyway, I'll stay out of the development threads from now on.

This project is a symptom the gets repeated again and again and again. You really think my entire comment is based on this single project? I'm just tired of the "good enough" attitude, which is far more pervasive than all the Clintonville, VV, UA and GV NIMBYism put together. Fawning over every project or trying to find the bright side every time is not helpful. The North Market tower is certainly not the worst example, but in declaring absolute victory and making excuses for the flaws, like is done every single time a project comes in smaller or poorly designed or less dense, it misses the point I thought we were after- getting the best possible outcome. And sorry, but no matter what anyone says, including the city, comprehensive transit is a pipe dream at this point. You don't study something for 40-some years and end up at the exact same position if you're serious about doing it. Ginther is not an urban champion and they were just blowing more smoke with the latest "dedicated-lane transit" talk earlier this year. You really think Columbus residents are going to give up their travel lanes for a bus or train? We can't even agree to build the necessary density that would be needed to support such lines, and suddenly I'm the bad guy for saying so. So be it.

So what I'm getting is that Columbus will always be a 2nd or 3rd tier city at best and unlikely to ever have comprehensive transit. It's a city that merely takes what it can get, not strives for anything better. High standards. Maybe I need to start looking elsewhere.

It's a 25% height reduction on a project that was promised wouldn't be reduced at all. It's not a few floors. The Short North is full of projects that didn't maximize the potential of their sites, especially on High. Being a decent urban neighborhood is not the same as saying it is the best it could have been. I can't believe we're still arguing that lower density is fine while arguing we need density to support things like better transit. How are these not contradictory views? I question whether anyone actually wants Columbus to be an urban city.

Yep, and honestly, we've seen what happens when developers have too much space to work with. We get disappointing, low-rise development like HighPoint and that cheap looking thing at Gay and High. It's not like having more space means we're going to get a bigger development. And really, a renovation of this building doesn't really mean it can't come down at some point in the future.