jonoh81

More like 40% better rather than almost 100% if you believe the BLS. Still good, but not quite THAT good. And I don't think you can use such numbers in relation to population, anyway. It would be nice to see Cleveland growing or not losing as much, but jobs numbers aren't a great indicator either way. After all, most years since the recession have seen job growth, but it hasn't translated to population increases.

I know this is more Columbus-centric, but since we're on the subject, here was the average annual net breakdown by state for the Columbus metro domestic migration 2012-2016. New Jersey: +1,048 Michigan: +989 New York: +767 West Virginia: +767 Virginia: +593 Washington: +530 Indiana: +475 Pennsylvania: +394 New Hampshire: +391 Alabama: +336 Alaska: +282 Massachusetts: +281 Puerto Rico: +264 Illinois: +257 Connecticut: +234 Rhode Island: +222 Minnesota: +191 Nevada: +184 Washington, DC: +142 Colorado: +141 North Carolina: +135 Maryland: +125 Delaware: +117 Arkansas: +92 Iowa: +92 Maine: +71 Wyoming: +23 Vermont: +17 Oklahoma: +14 Tennessee: -1 Kentucky: -4 Utah: -6 Kansas: -7 Mississippi: -26 Nebraska: -42 Montana: -49 Louisiana: -86 Oregon: -91 Wisconsin: -91 Hawaii: -96 South Dakota: -102 New Mexico: -105 Idaho: -137 North Dakota: -147 Missouri: -323 Arizona: -389 California: -501 Texas: -590 South Carolina: -767 Georgia: -1,189 Florida: -2,286 I can't say I approve of the Ohioan love for Florida, yet it alone attracts more net than almost the next 3 net loss states combined.

The Columbus metro grew about 27,000 2015-2016 and about 31,000 2016-2017. However, as I recently posted, only about 2200 per year (through 2016) was from out of state domestic, with about 6,000 international. So about 8,800, roughly, was from outside of Ohio as recently as 2016. Even if we assumed the same rate last year, Columbus alone cannot account for most of the growth. I haven't run the numbers for other metros, but I imagine at least Cincinnati can claim some of that total as well, along with some of the other positive-growth counties.

State population estimates are out for 2018. Ohio hit 11,689,442, which is a gain of 25,313 over 2017. This would also be the 2nd highest growth year this decade. It also would be the 19th fastest-growing state in terms of totals. That's quite a move up from the beginning of the decade, when it was in the 40s. It's % growth is still low, though, considering it is already a very populated state.

For 2010, there were really only a few cities in the country where the estimates showed the complete opposite of where they were heading. Cincinnati was one of them. Atlanta was another example, but even with them, the estimates were on the correct side of 0, just that they were far overestimated. But those examples were definitely the exception. Columbus and Cleveland were much closer to the actual census. Most Ohio cities were at least in the ballpark. One of the reasons Cincinnati's were off is because the city challenged the estimates from the Census as being too low, so the Census corrected them to what Cincinnati claimed. It wasn't that the Census was wildly off, it's that the city itself inflated the total. Cincinnati is now estimated to be growing again, but this is entirely based on the Census, not on any city numbers, so I think it's okay to have some confidence in at least the direction of the numbers- meaning that it's very likely that it's accurate that Cincinnati is actually on the rise again after so many years. Something to remember in terms of the estimates as well... when cities are growing quickly, estimates are usually too low, and when cities are declining quickly, estimates are usually too high, but when there is a more gradual growth/decline, the estimates tend to be in a pretty good position. So in that case, I expect the 2020 results to show Columbus with more population than estimated, and both other 2 Cs about where they were estimated to be. So Cincinnati with a gain somewhere between 5,000-15,000, Cleveland with a loss between 15,000-30,000 and Columbus with a gain of between 150,000-200,000. All those figures would be improvements over the 2000-2010 period, and really the best in decades.

For most of its life, no one cared about Columbus. In the Midwest and Ohio, it was a 3rd or 4th-tier city at best. Only when so many other cities declined or when Columbus began to really rise did we start seeing all the naysayers. Notice that you don't really see a lot of the "it grew through annexation!" or "its success is all based on it being a capital!" from people outside of the Midwest/Great Lakes. The only thing people from outside the region seem to say about Columbus is that they're surprised a city from the Midwest is growing so fast or something, because they dismiss the region completely most of the time. For locals, though, I think the criticism comes from a more personal place. Columbus has really started to challenge the rankings of regional cities, and when some have comfortably been so far ahead for so long, it seems like a threat in some way. So they find reasons to tear it down. They don't always think about the reality that the Midwest/Great Lakes needs cities like Columbus and Madison and Des Moines and Omaha, because each one represents a contradiction to the narrative about how everyone's abandoning a declining region to head to Florida (one of the worst states ever) or the West Coast. You're absolutely correct that even in Columbus, many natives and non-natives alike still have an inferiority complex. If anything, people don't give it enough credit rather than giving it too much.

Didn't the city estimates come out like 6 months ago?

Because I don't like letting falsehoods go unchallenged... Domestic Migration to the Columbus Metro Ohio Only 2006-2010: +7,910 2011-2015: +7,895 2012-2016: +8,998 Rest of the US 2006-2010: -1,278 2011-2015: +1,598 2012-2016: +2,139 Total Domestic 2006-2010: +6,632 2011-2015: +9,493 2012-2016: +11,137 Number of net positive migration states outside Ohio (including DC and Puerto Rico) 2006-2010: 21 2011-2015: 28 2012-2016: 29 All data is based on the Census migration estimates. The totals are the estimated annual averages for each period. Suck it, Renn.

Frankly, Aaron Renn annoys me. He seems to like Columbus, but also seems to enjoy knocking it when he can find an angle. The part about how Columbus just gains from Ohio is not only factually untrue (it has net national gains outside of Ohio as well, including from nearly 30 states), but the vast majority of metros/cites nationally gain most of their domestic population from within their home states. This doesn't even count the growing international migration. He attempts to create a false narrative that Columbus is both unique in its migration trends, and that it's somehow in danger of imminent failure if the rest of Ohio stops moving there. Worse, he posts this false information and narrative across multiple media platforms, including the Atlantic. This to me is just another one of those annexation claims, where people need there to be something wrong or negative regardless of the facts. Notice how he suggested any criticism of his view would be the result of a "cadre" of Columbus boosters. What a tool.

A few that I like. Columbus East Side Franklin Park South, OTE: https://goo.gl/maps/8EcpfMANBV52 Franklin Avenue, OTE: https://goo.gl/maps/Hy24hgA68tJ2 Cassingham Avenue, Bexley: https://goo.gl/maps/qQsc3Vuooq52 South Side Jaeger Street, German Village: https://goo.gl/maps/zXRVYS7kKLQ2 North Side Hamlet Street, Italian Village: https://goo.gl/maps/DZiv7HMi1Q22 Iuka Avenue: Campus: https://goo.gl/maps/Kp8ciixuq322 Northwood Avenue, Old North Columbus: https://goo.gl/maps/L1TffZGVTZ42 West Side Westgate Avenue, Hilltop: https://goo.gl/maps/Bh7P6cZYH7J2 Other W. Town Street, Downtown: https://goo.gl/maps/WfgAq4SEs6N2 Civic Center Drive, Downtown: https://goo.gl/maps/9pKWSTNaHAu

I'm not sure it is a good argument to hold back a neighborhood's future based on a hypothetical possibility years down the road.

It's on the west side of 315, so they may sit on it a while, I'm guessing. Or maybe not. Things are moving fast in the neighborhood these days. Fun Fact- this is where the Lucas Sullivant house used to stand, well over 150 years old when it was torn down.

Ok I thought I heard something like this, but a while back. Also, what’s this insider information on transit? Don’t hold out on us.

I don’t know if I’m remembering right, but wasn’t there once a plan to move it downtown at some point?

I’m not even sure how this is legal. As the articles have mentioned, it violates local rule. What if the state decided cities couldn’t collect taxes or build bike lanes? How would this be any different?

I hope “big changes” means 50 stories instead of 20 and a story about how “the market just isn’t there for larger” like we saw with the Commons project reduction.

That map is a very modern view of things. Traditionally, it was all Franklinton, and only recently, especially with the peninsula proposals, have people started to think of it more as being Downtown. I'm just saying that "Franklinton" and "Downtown" aren't necessarily 2 different things in this case. But yeah, Buckingham had a horrid proposal.

I don’t think it’s different. Historically, anything on the west side of the river was Franklinton, but it can also be part of Downtown.

That concrete wall is awful. It makes the space look private and off limits to the public.

The city had relatively very high murder numbers in November and December last year, when traditionally murders are lower in colder months. There’s no guarantee of that and the total could easily end up below 100.

Again I think a wait and see approach should be taken, but yes, if this is the final design, it and those pushing it deserve all the criticism they’re getting and more.

Not time to panic just yet when no design has been confirmed, but even after assurances that there would be no height reduction down the line, etc., it would likely surprise no one that something like this would happen. It is so very typical of Columbus development- size reduction and gradually worse design with every version- that I would actually suggest it’s the most likely outcome.

Yeah I really hope that’s not the latest. It’s the worst of them all so far.

Welcome to Founders Park Hospital Soviet Housing.

I didn't think it was that costly? I joined UO precisely because they killed the forums over there. Should have done it sooner. I posted there and at city-data. I still do on both but much, much less. Too much boring “lifestyles” stuff now on CU and too much trolling on the Ohio C-D forum. Oh, and the politics forum there is like Stormfront or something.