DEPACincy

Except, after an initial surge in out-migration, there has been massive reversal over the past year. NYC rents are way up after dropping during the pandemic. Migration data shows people are heading back to central cities.

The big problem with that analysis is that it assumes "living in the city" means living in a high rise downtown. My neighborhood is a mix of apartments and single family homes. There are tons of kids and they all can walk to school, to parks, to after school programs. And almost everybody has a small yard. Also, Grandview is a suburb in name only. It's right next to downtown. This is about suburban sprawl, a whole different beast.

I've lived in rural areas, small towns, suburbs, medium sized cities, and big cities. The most toxic place I lived was the small town in Ohio where I grew up. I realize that it is not representative of all small towns but it was not pleasant in anyway. Huge drug problem, very judgmental people, hell on earth if you are LGBTQ+, low life expectancy. The town has been on life support for my entire life. But a lot of people there will tell you that they have no desire to live anywhere else. Different strokes for different folks I guess. On the other hand, I prefer the city. I have plenty of privacy and a small backyard. But I can also walk to the park or a coffee shop. I know and like all the neighbors on my street, and we have block parties in the summer. We have a diverse group of neighbors, racially and economically, and everyone is proud of our block. I also realize that this is not representative of all cities. But I've lived in a few and had similar experiences in all of them. In the end, I think people should be able to choose wherever they want to live. But the key is that we've been massively subsidizing suburban sprawl for decades and we still are. In tons of different ways. If you want a huge box of a house on an acre of land in West Chester or New Albany or Pepper Pike where you have to drive to everything and not ever interact with a stranger, that's great for you! But I don't want to pay for it.

Yea, a streetcar running up Spring Grove or across the WHV in a dedicated land with signal preemption would behave like light rail and would be a huge benefit to those neighborhoods.

I know a few very successful people that went to Brush. It didn't hinder them at all. Truth is, the metrics we use to measure school districts are not actually all that useful at predicting the success of an individual child. But yes, unfortunately, parents put a lot of stock in them.

Great write-up and I appreciate you taking the time. It's very well thought out. However, I still think that a lot would have to go right to end up in a good situation with this map. Ultimately, the map is unconstitutional on its face and the Dems should challenge it. Get the SC to force the GOP into a fair map and then work like hell to change the process again so we can have a truly independent commission going forward.

Someone shared info here awhile back. Power started the process but realized that it was a project he wasn't able to complete once he did his due diligence. They marketed the building for sale with the prior due diligence as a selling point so the new buyer wouldn't have to start at square one. The prospective buyer wants to continue the work of converting to residential. That's all we know at this point.

It's under agreement for sale. Tenants are being cleared out so the new owner can convert the upper floors into residential.

I should add, there are remote circumstances where someone's address may be a hotel. The Census Bureau makes an effort to track down everyone, including transient and homeless people without a permanent address. In those cases, they are counted where they sleep most of the time, based on their own recollection. So if I don't have a home but I usually sleep at the Motel 6 in North Olmsted, then that's where I'll be counted. Another hypothetical would be someone who lives in Cleveland eight months out of the year, but has a condo in Florida where they stay four months out of the year. Even if they are at their Florida condo on April 1st, they are instructed to report their Cleveland address, because that is where they live most of the time. However, there are certainly some number of people who don't follow directions very well and would report their Florida address since they are there at that moment. If you got a form at both addresses and tried to fill them both out then someone from the Census Bureau would follow up to rectify the situation.

Bingo. The only limitation is what the courts will allow. Otherwise they can draw a new one every four years. A fatal flaw in the law (or maybe purposeful?). We really need another referendum to establish a truly nonpartisan commission.

It's a little hazy. Most assisted living facilities are not considered "group quarters" like nursing homes are. So most likely she is not included as "group quarters" and is instead included as a household of one. However, even people in group quarters will get a census form (including students in dorms). Because even though the institution is reporting that you live there, they want you to fill out the form to get your other statistical information. However, if you don't fill out the form you are still counted since the institution has reported that information.

The census includes people in jails. They are not included in the "population in households" number but they are included in the overall population number. So the census number for downtown Cleveland includes the people in the jail. They are counted as "population in group quarters."

The Census form isn't sent to hotels. It's only sent to residences. It says "count the people who live and sleep here most of the time." It also says "do not count anyone living away from here, either in college or the armed forces" and "do not count anyone in a nursing home, jail, prison, detention facility, etc." Those people are counted by the institutions they are currently residing at. EDIT to add: If I fill out the form for my address and my kid in college also tries to fill out the form for my address there will be a follow up by the Census Bureau to rectify the count and make sure that people are counted at the right place. Kids who are in college but live off campus should get a form at their residence and fill it out to reflect where they live. There is definitely some undercounting in college towns, but colleges and towns typically have campaigns to make sure everyone gets counted because it is important to them. And of course Census workers follow up to addresses that don't return the form (or fill it out online).

Right, based on 2020 it would take a D +3 year. But the population isn't static. Hamilton and Warren Counties are both two of the fastest growing counties in the state. And the new population added each year are more diverse and more liberal. So, in a hypothetical situation where current trends continue and this map lasts ten years, by the end of the decade it would likely be a safe blue seat. Of course, this map won't last that long. EDIT to add: If the national mood is good enough for Dems to hold on to the Presidency in 2024 my prediction is that this seat would flip, and both Biden and the Dem House candidate would win it by at least 5 points.

First district is labeled as R+3 but it has been moving left. Biden won it by 3 points. In a red wave year, Chabot is probably safe. But in a neutral environment it probably flips.

This is true. Though I think they are banking on being able to redraw them in 2024.

This is not true at all. Racial gerrymandering is illegal under VRA. Section 2 of VRA requires minority opportunity districts to be maintained where they already exist. For example, if a district had a majority Black population it would be unconstitutional to draw a new map that splits that district in two to "crack" the Black vote. If minority populations grow, it may be required to draw more minority opportunity districts. In a situation where states are granted an additional congressional seat it is not required to draw an additional minority opportunity district (unless minority population growth comes into play). It's all very confusing and a bit subjective. It does not require racial gerrymandering though, it does quite the opposite. But this is not even related to what is happening in Ohio. In fact, the Ohio GOP has successfully "cracked" Democratic counties. Just look at Hamilton County being broken into three different districts. The Black vote (and Democratic vote) is completely diluted. This would be potentially illegal under VRA if the existing district was already majority Black (there are other considerations, this is a simplification) but the existing district is not. If this was challenged in federal court then Republicans could argue that their tactics constitute political gerrymandering (which is legal) and not racial gerrymandering (which is illegal). However, this will not be challenged in federal court, because it is likely legal based on current federal law. Instead, it will be challenged in state court, where it has a good chance of being struck down as a violation of the Ohio Constitution.

Yes. But that's not what is happening with these maps. They split Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton three times. You don't need to do that. You don't do that unless you are trying to crack Dems. In fact, David Niven, UC political scientist, notes that these maps are in the 96th percentile of all possible maps for Republican advantage. You could have a computer randomly draw 100 maps and 96 of them would be better for Dems than this one.

Trump narrowly won the Cincy district in 2016 but Biden won it by 3 in 2020. With changing demographics it'll continue to get more blue, but it would basically be a toss up in 2022.

Latest from John Arthur Flats (Apple Street LGBTQ+ Senior Housing)

I mean, she simply said she would be unable to vote because of her conflict of interest. That doesn't seem controversial. I wouldn't read too much into it.

I doubt Ruby had anything to do with it. Seelbach had been working on it for awhile. Other cities across the country have been moving this direction, as the animals are often kept in inhumane conditions and they suffer psychologically from mixing with car traffic in a busy city.

A trail like this would score very well if they applied for OKI funds because there's an easy case that it is a transportation asset and not just recreational.

Honestly, it seems like bike/ped/transit projects do really well. We just need communities to submit more of those types of projects. And fewer road expansions.

OKI doesn't apply for grants. That's on DOTE and other city departments. OKI gets a chunk of money annually from the feds and applies a formula to decide how to distribute it based on the applications they get from municipalities. So a hypothetical streetcar would go up against other projects in the region for OKI money and the money would be split based on the existing formula. So the impetus on the city to move if they want streetcar expansion.