DEPACincy

Whatever distinction you want to draw, it seems misleading at best. And again, I'm not sure how the population of Washington Court House affects transportation planning in Franklin and Delaware Counties. And if all the growth is happening in Franklin County then why include those additional counties in the analysis? My concern is that their numbers end up leading to bad planning decisions. What Census projections are you referring to?

You're right. There are no correct models, only useful ones. But the MORPC model is not useful. If you go to the annual meeting of the Population Association of America and presented these projections and their methodology you'd be laughed out of the room. Assuming similar growth over the next 30 years is the worst possible way to come up with a number you could imagine. And no it isn't better to overestimate. If you overestimate the population growth, especially in the outlying areas of the region, you end up building a ton of useless, expensive to maintain, infrastructure. If someone comes along and proposes a second beltway around Columbus going through the outlying counties it can now be justified because MORPC has endorsed the idea that these counties are going to see massive growth.

But that's not how population projections are done. You have to take into account age cohorts and projected births-deaths. The older generations in the region are much larger than the younger generations. There is ZERO reason for a qualified demographer to assume that growth from 2030 to 2050 will be as high as growth this decade. It's wishful thinking and does not represent best practices in the field. It also goes directly against the official projections from the state, which are much more methodologically sound.

Very weird that they're using the 15 county region since MORPC is the MPO for two counties (and a small portion of two others). They're calling Chillocothe, Zanesville, Bellefontaine, and Washington Courthouse a part of "Columbus." I'm not sure the projections are very useful for planning purposes if it includes people living in those places. Also, I compared their projection to the state's Development Services Agency's projections for the 15 county area. The 15 county area had a population of 2.24 million in 2010. The state projects it'll grow to 2.77 million by 2050. So MORPC's numbers are still much higher than the state's official projections. The state projects that Fayette, Guernsey, Logan, Marion, Morrow, Muskingum, and Ross Counties will lose population between now and 2050, partially offsetting gains in other counties.

For the most part, yes. Average annual growth this decade was about 0.7% compared to about 1% last decade. But notably, 2019 growth was below the decade average (0.5%). And natural increase dropped below a million in 2019, which is the first time that has happened in four decades. Also international migration for 2019 is almost half of what it was in 2016. So the trend is becoming more intense. 10 states lost population this year. https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html

MORPC's projections have always been unrealistic and everyone around the state knows it. The state department of development projects that central Ohio will add about half the population that MORPC claims (which would still make it the fastest growing region by far). Ohio has an aging population and we can expect population growth to slow dramatically after 2030 and even go negative by 2040 (barring an unexpected and large influx of immigration). There is no way Columbus gets to 3 million by 2050. It'll be closer to 2.5 million.

Growth is slowing down nationally. Fewer births. More deaths. Lower immigration. All adds up to slower growth.

Early voting usually favors Democrats so I think it'll probably pass. When I early voted a few days before election day it was very clear that the crowd skewed heavily liberal based on the literature they were taking and discussions in line.

Updated from Chambers and Knowlton. This is supposed to be three single family detached homes, but this foundation works looks intriguing:

Update on the two houses on Mad Anthony:

In most cases, yes. But in this case, no.

My neighborhood has a ton of renovations going on. Most are done by small developers. I'm worried that a work stoppage would be a death blow to their bottom line and their projects might never get done. So far they've all been going on as planned.

I'm a Democrat. I believe in Democratic policies and in Democratic politicians. I believe in the Democratic vision for the country, the state, the region, and the city. I have not voted for a Republican in years and do not plan to do so any time soon. I actually think John Cranley would make a good governor. But so help me god, if he uses this crisis as an excuse to try to force the permanent closure of the streetcar I will walk into a voting booth in November 2022 and vote for Mike DeWine.

Eh. A decent number of people will do this, but I doubt MOST. That would be a lot of AirBnBs in one spot. I've seen data on this, and even in superstar cities having 10% of units in one building be AirBnBs is considered very high.

100%

Not surprising. He said it struggled in 2019 too, so they've been having issues for awhile. The location is horrible. There's no street life there in the evenings. It would've done a lot better if it was closer to the Aronoff or on Vine Street in OTR.

You're the 80th person on here to make this point. You can go back and read the entire discussion about it on this thread.

Why do you care so much about what random people on Youtube are doing?

What about me, delivering pizzas when I was in college? This would've been devastating. What about the waitress at your favorite diner with two kids at home? What about the bartender at the bar downtown that I love, who is working to put herself through college? The list goes on. Come on, man. Don't be an idiot.

Well, college students always get undercounted. Typically the problem is that parents don't put them on their form and the students never fill theirs out. I'm not sure that the undercount will be any higher because of this. Maybe some parents will put them on their form and not mark them as college students. But also, maybe some parents will think to put them on their form now and mark them as college students when they might not have before. Who knows what the effect will be, but I don't think there's any reason to believe the undercount will be higher.

When their parents fill out the form it asks at the end if anyone in the house is a college student who usually lives somewhere else. If you say yes, it'll ask you to identify which people. Then it'll ask you for their school address. That way they get counted in the right place. The paper versions of the form have this section too. So everyone should be counted in the right place.

This shouldn't be a problem. The questionnaire makes it clear that you should be counted where you usually sleep at night, and specifically mentions that college students should be counted at their university if they live there.

There's a form you can fill out on the Move Forward Hamco website to get one. You an pick them up at their office on Gilbert or, I believe, they are making deliveries as well. I grabbed a few for my neighbors as well. We have a lot of them in our few blocks.

That's not going to happen here. The market wouldn't support it. We just don't have the levels of scarcity you see in Seattle or NYC.

A great move!