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LlamaLawyer

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Everything posted by LlamaLawyer

  1. Definitely. Also, CWRU's enrollment is up like 10% since 2014. In that same time period, college enrollment nationally is down about 15%. If CWRU can keep slowly ticking up its enrollment and CSU can execute on this massive increase all while the nation's enrollment rate is plunging....Then we'll really be cooking with gas. Big for the region, not just foot traffic in the area.
  2. Love this plan. Love this render that puts the size in perspective. Basically a doubling of the size of CSU's campus with the construction of a dozen new buildings. More active uses are placed on Euclid,Chester, and Carnegie, with stadiums and athletics tucked away on Payne. Will be a fabulous layout. Hopefully this all gets executed on.
  3. Not sure I agree with that. Average home in San Francisco is $1.5 million. Average home in LA is $955,000. Average home in NYC is $785,000. Average home in Phoenix is $410,000. Average home in Houston is $275,000. We're talking about 50% home value destruction to get to NYC prices. 50% crash is bigger than the 2008 crash was in San Francisco. That's kind of like the apocalypse. And even then homes would still be 3x more expensive than Houston.
  4. Light rail going down the street would help. Maybe someday...
  5. The really shocking thing is that home values are up even more in other cities. But I expect we'll get a much softer landing Looks to me like lots of places out west are toast.
  6. Just to add to my point, if even 10% of Burke can be built on, that allows a massive development. For context, the below encircled area is about 35 acres, i.e. less than 10% the area of Burke. I still maintain most of Burke should be a park, but you can definitely have a large development and a large park coexist.
  7. I don't know the answer to this, but it probably means something there are buildings that exist on Burke right now. At least part of the land can accommodate low rise buildings.
  8. It’s certainly easier for politicians to hide the ball when policies are causing inflation as opposed to austerity/tax increases.
  9. There's a camp that believes inflation will eventually have to settle in around 4% or so for years to decades so the U.S. can escape from its unprecedented peacetime debt burden.
  10. How does this relate to interest rate expectations? If record corporate profits are going to continue for a long time, why does the market think interest rates are about to nosedive?
  11. Idk whether we’re in a recession right now, but the 3 month and ten year treasuries are very inverted, which can mean one of three things: a. We’re about to have a recession. b. Something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand. c. We’re about to have a recession AND something really weird is happening that the market doesn’t understand. I’m in camp C but who knows at this point.
  12. I've seen a lot of out west plates too. I think "climate refugee" is a little too strong of a term for anyone moving to a different part of the U.S. There aren't really parts of the U.S. that used to be inhabitable but aren't right now. The water crisis is probably only beginning. It'll be here in a much more powerful way in a decade unless rainfall trends reverse drastically. While there are lots of water restrictions, I don't think someone leaving California because of lawn watering bans can really be considered a "refugee." So the people coming here from out west, if climate is really their reason for moving, are doing it to avoid becoming climate refugees, not because they were actually forced out of their homes.
  13. Anybody else still playing the license plate game? In spite of high interest rates and all the challenges in the world, I feel like I'm seeing more California plates now than ever. Obviously they're from lots of states, but especially California. And the pace of home renovations in Cleveland Heights is still unprecedented. Basically every street has at least a couple dilapidated and vacant houses that are newly redone or in the process of a redo.
  14. @KJPThanks for the article. I'm surprised to learn how little office space Vancouver has. That really gives me a lot of hope for us. I did a little research and was shocked to learn that, by office square footage, Cleveland in 2011 had the 13th largest downtown in North America. And that included NYC being counted three times ahead of us in the list (midtown, downtown, midtown south were counted separately). In terms of U.S. cities, we were behind only NYC, Chicago, Boston, Atlanta, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Houston for CBD commercial sq. footage. As I had said above, the dense urban center has a rich history as a place that people live and gather (10,000 years). It has a much shorter history as a place people commute to work in an office building (<150 years). So hopefully if we can continue to grow our downtown population that will allow us to participate in the best parts of whatever urban centers look like 50 years from now. To say it in a simpler way, your article gives me a lot of hope that reduction in office space could be a stage of growth for Cleveland rather than a symptom of decline.
  15. I'm glad this got through but disappointed there are any conditions placed on it at all. Basically "Thanks for wanting to invest in our city. We know interest rates are 8% and the economy is about to go down the tubes, but let's put a couple more obstacles in your way, just for fun." The top is awesome. Who cares if it looks "unfinished." The cladding is lovely. I hope it doesn't change. The height criticisms are inane too. The fact that any sophisticated person would say a 12-story building 2.5 miles away from public square is "too tall" is pretty alarming. The massing is great. We're finally getting some really good and interesting architecture and these commission members criticize any thing that's too interesting. People ask why all new developments look the same. A big part of it is planning commissions clutching their pearls at the sight of anything that's not quite boring enough. These people must eat cheese and mayonnaise sandwiches on white bread for lunch every day. /end rant In any event, I'm so glad Joyce Huang is a part of these discussions. She seems to have the right kind of energy.
  16. LlamaLawyer replied to Columbo's post in a topic in Ohio Politics
    I think it's too early to guess what 2024 will mean for Ohio. We may be in the middle of a global economic collapse and energy crisis then, which would sort of overshadow everything else...
  17. I mostly agree with this (there a few democratic policies that I think will have pretty negative long-term effects; no need to get into that now). My point is just that the magnitude of these effects isn't as big as people want to believe.
  18. Having worked on several campaigns, it 100% is. In a well-run campaign the last three weeks are nothing but generating turnout, with a network of canvassers, door knockers, and, on election day, poll watchers. Did anyone knock on your door and make sure you got out to vote? Because no one did that in my neighborhood. This is true, but statehouse politics is less important to local economic issues than one might believe. What is important is stability and predictability. And though I criticize Republicans for a lot of what they're doing, Ohio Republicans have, for the most part, been a known quantity and predictable. Does it piss me off that the statehouse won't let Cleveland decide who can be a police officer? Yeah. Does it piss me off that they won't support intercity rail? Yeah. Does it piss me off that the legislature discriminates against alternative energy proposals even if they're profitable? Yeah. Does it piss me off that they want to make it easier to get a gun than to vote? Yeah. But I'm not exactly under the illusion that we'd be materially better off if we'd had democratic leadership this whole time. Chicago and Detroit and Buffalo have had all the same issues we have even with much more consistent democratic leadership in their statehouses. d*ck Celeste ran this state for most of the 1980s, but that decade didn't magically transform the state's cities into utopias. It's on the local leaders to bring prosperity to the community. **EDIT: Apparently the forum won't let me write out our former governor's name.
  19. LlamaLawyer replied to Columbo's post in a topic in Ohio Politics
    Turnout in Cuyahoga County was 10 points below 2018.
  20. To put it in perspective, Republicans have controlled both the house and senate of the general assembly since 1992. That's right. 1992 was the last time either chamber was in Democrat hands. So it's not like Republicans being in control is anything new. We will find ways to succeed with the hand we have. Columbus has very strong growth. Cincinnati turned the corner. They have to deal with the same legislature we do. It's up to us to find a way to increase the prosperity here.
  21. LlamaLawyer replied to Columbo's post in a topic in Ohio Politics
    Mandel would have lost to Tim Ryan. Renacci probably would have too. J.D. Vance is a better candidate than either of them and if he weren't such a disingenuous ass, he would have won by a larger margin. I think this meme just reflects the national problem that Democrats have. A lot of young people are very liberal and just won't get excited for a candidate like Tim Ryan. But a lot of the base is also fairly moderate and shies away from candidates like AOC. The Democrats are lucky that they're only halfway dysfunctional right now while the Republican party (most of it) is circling the drain.
  22. Cleveland deserves blame, but don't shift any off of Columbus, lol. The turnout in Cuyahoga County and Franklin County were basically the same.
  23. This is a little pessimistic. The balance of power in the governor's mansion and statehouse will remain essentially unchanged from the last couple years. When all the votes are counted, J.D. Vance may only lead by 4 points over Ryan, which makes Ohio essentially 5 points more Republican than Pennsylvania. That's not a drastic difference. There are some pretty practical things you can get involved with. There should be another constitutional amendment on how redistricting is done that will get rid of the ridiculous state legislative districts we have. There is almost definitely going to be a pro-choice constitutional amendment on the ballot in the next couple years. Look at what just happened in Kentucky, which was a +30 Republican state. If democrats place a carefully crafted abortion rights amendment on the ballot, it will pass. Everything that just happened in this election was either expected or in Democrats' favor. OH-1 and OH-13 are surprises. Tim Ryan was not supposed to win. Nan Whaley never had a chance. So I don't think you should be unduly discouraged because there are things that can be (and probably will be) done. You have somewhat of a bully pulpit and could make a difference in the redistricting changes. That would be the biggest thing for this state long term. District 11 had the lowest turnout of any congressional district in Ohio. The only way to fix this is to focus on improving the lives of the radically poor in Cleveland. The poor are basically never engaged voters. We have a tremendous opportunity with the manufacturing onshoring that is going to occur over the next decade to improve the lives of impoverished Clevelanders if we are just smart enough to capitalize on it.
  24. LlamaLawyer replied to Columbo's post in a topic in Ohio Politics
    I'm interested to see what the ultimate margin of victory is for J.D. Vance. When I initially saw up 7 it made me feel kinda sick, but there's still a lot of Cuyahoga, Franklin, and Hamilton County outstanding, so you may see that margin drop.
  25. I disagree with that. The underlying current is pro Republican fundamentals. DeWine is also very popular after handling covid well and basically single handedly bringing Intel to the state in addition to some other economic developments that his administration can legitimately claim responsibility for. In this kind of environment he was unbeatable.