Everything posted by LlamaLawyer
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Cleveland: University Circle: Circle Square
I was thinking specifically of this one. Also--parking lots north side of Chester, across the street from Artisan. Also, also, the big parking lots by the solar farm on E. 105 Also, also, also, the solar farm on E. 105. I love solar, but talk about terrible land use. Urban ground-level solar farms should not exist.
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Cleveland: University Circle: Circle Square
There's a elevation change and so a lot of the buildings on Case's campus farther east look taller than they are. Makes for a nice skyline, but also makes Artisan look less impressive from that perspective.
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Cleveland: General Business & Economic News
https://www.crainscleveland.com/manufacturing/intels-20b-plan-has-promise-northeast-ohio-suppliers I don't have Crains anymore, so can't read the article, but the headline sounds great!
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Cleveland: Ohio City: Bridgeworks Development
Pretty disappointing that their financing isn’t nailed down. Hopefully that’s not a problem.
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Ohio Congressional Delegation
Gonzales's district was R+19. This one has as much from the old 11th and from the old 13th (both D districts) as it does from Gonzales. It contains all of Summit County, which is like D+9. The only reason it's even competitive is the carefully selected parts of Stark that got thrown in, which collectively make up about 1/4 of the district.
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Ohio Congressional Redistricting / Gerrymandering
Just think carefully about who you're having removed because the replacement for DeWine, LaRose, or Faber is guaranteed to be worse.
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Ohio Congressional Delegation
FWIW, turnout was even worse in Franklin County than Cuyahoga.
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Cleveland: Ohio City: Bridgeworks Development
It's still hard for me to picture how the design will look in real life, but it's at least fine. For the next few months, though, I'm a little less interested in worrying about top-notch design and a little more interested in getting projects financed and underway before we get hit by 2008-Two: Office Market Collapse Boogaloo.
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Cleveland: Downtown Parks & Public Spaces - Development/Construction
Y'know what would really help overall acreage? What if we could have a huge sort of central park, maybe 400-450 acres or so. Maybe near the lake, or better yet, on the lake. What if there were some huge piece of asphalt or some failing money-sink business we could replace. And if only said huge piece of asphalt or money-sink business were already owned by the city. Wouldn't that just be tailor made to become one of the greatest urban parks in the United States? Ah well. "If only."
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Cleveland: Ohio City: Bridgeworks Development
I'm sold. Do it yesterday.
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Ohio Congressional Delegation
Following Tuesday night's primary, I think we're in a realistic position where Democrats lose no seats and Republicans lose one in the delegation. There are currently 4 Democrats and 12 Republicans. In November, two Democratic seats are complete shoe-ins. District 11 in Cuyahoga will be Shontel Brown. District 3 in Columbus will be Joyce Beatty. Then there are two pretty swingy districts that I expect to go blue. The 9th is an R+6 district where Marcy Kaptur is the incumbent. Her opponent J.R. Majewski attended the Jan 6 riot, has posted QAnon-related hashtags, and his big claim to fame is painting an enormous Trump flag on his lawn. This is the kind of Republican that loses a +6 district, and Kaptur is an incumbent. Even in a wave year, this is district is a really, really hard pickup for Republicans with him as the candidate. Next, the new 13th district (which is all of Summit County and a big chunk of Stark including Canton) is another good target for Democrats. Emilia Sykes is running against the very Trumpy Madison Gesiotto Gilbert. While she's not crazy in the same way J.R. Majewski is, she also doesn't have a +6 advantage. She's Trumpy enough to turn a lot of moderates off. So, it's all gonna come down to turnout for this one. If Akron turns out, Sykes will win. Finally, the 1st district I expect to stay Republican. It's a D+3, but you've got the fairly moderate and pretty popular Chabot defending territory. But even in a wave year, I'd give him a more than 10% chance of losing given the accelerating demographic changes in Cincinnati. None of the other races should really be competitive, but if you look at the above, I actually don't expect Democrats to lose seats, even in a wave year. J.R. Majewski is really what makes the difference. It's like he was designed in a lab.
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Cleveland: University Circle (General): Development and News
I'll say again that it is amazing we have a growing university in a time when most university enrollments are shrinking. If the trend continues, it's an asset that sets us up really well for decades to come.
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Ohio Congressional Redistricting / Gerrymandering
My biggest concern now is that they don't even adopt a new map at all. Earlier today Ken Faber had produced a new draft map which actually seemed pretty reasonable. I don't think the map got any discussion at the hearing.
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Cleveland Heights: Development and News
Great article, @KJP. One correction--the Meadowbrook Lee development actually includes more park space (I think it's 2.3 acres, but don't quote me). The .3 acres only includes the area fronting on Lee Road. There's additional green-space being added behind the development, some of which is public and some of which is not.
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Cleveland Heights: Development and News
Also, that's a fairly dangerous area, which unfortunately makes development harder. There have been a pretty substantial number of shootings in the neighborhood just north of Coventry.
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Cleveland Heights: Development and News
And hopefully we can financing complete and shovels in the ground for both projects before the global economy implodes!
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2022 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
Cordray got 46.7% in 2018, which was a blue wave year that included Sherrod Brown trouncing Renacci. Nan Whaley has no advantage that Cordray didn't and many more things going against her. So I think 46.7% is clearly her ceiling.
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2022 U.S. Senate Race
Doubt it, and I actually think focusing too much on Roe would be a terrible strategy for Tim Ryan. https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/10/despite-ohio-laws-limiting-abortion-majority-of-voters-think-abortion-should-remain-legal-poll-shows.html Abortion is basically a +13 issue in Ohio. Tim Ryan's strategy so far has been focusing on what are basically +50 issues like lowering taxes for the middle class, "taking back manufacturing jobs from China", etc. Focusing on abortion is a way-too-risky move, and in a very hard to win state (for a Democrat), he needs to veer away from wedge issues. That's what he's doing already, with ads that literally say he doesn't care about the culture war. I could be wrong about how this will shake out, but abortion is an issue where public opinion is notoriously hard to pin down. For instance, polling shows most Americans support Roe v. Wade ... but most also believe the cutoff for legal abortions should be the end of the first trimester (i.e. 13 weeks). These are obviously inconsistent positions. and the only thing that's clear is most Americans fall somewhere between 0 week abortion ban is good and partial birth abortions are good. Roe has made all discussions theoretical for the last 50 years, and it may take a few years for people to realize where they stand when the issue is actually on the legislative table. Finally, there is a remote possibility we get a ruling in June that doesn't overturn Roe but permits abortion restrictions around 10-15 weeks, which (as indicated above) may not actually be that unpopular. EDIT: additional source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-americans-really-think-about-abortion/
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2022 U.S. Senate Race
Came here to post this. One of the best political ads I've ever seen. And it was ready to go on primary night. Vance is a much better candidate than Mandel, but Tim Ryan may have a real shot.
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Cleveland Heights: Development and News
On all but a couple streets, the No signs outnumbered the Yes signs 5 to 1. I was originally concerned that this election was being held in a low turnout cycle, but I think that may have helped No since there were more high-information viewers. My number one concern was that people who didn't understand the issue at all would say "Build a park? Sure!" Big vindication for progressive housing policy in Cleveland Heights. The NIMBYs are loud, but unlike in San Francisco they are not in control.
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2022 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
Doubt it. I also don't think many Renacci and Blystone voters have Nan Whaley as their second choice. They'll still come out and vote because there's a senate contest and then they'll vote DeWine with a scowl on their face. I think Whaley would have had a much easier time facing Renacci or Blystone. It's pretty hard for me to imagine DeWine losing. EDIT: Also, to flesh this out a bit more, as much as Trump and DeWine hate each other, if Renacci ran against DeWine in the primary, DeWine would be smart enough to call up Trump and complain about it. And Trump would be smart enough to tell Renacci to back off.
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Cleveland Heights: Development and News
Issue 9 soundly defeated with all but a few votes in. Best news of the night.
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2022 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
Thanks, that's helpful.
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2022 Ohio Gubernatorial Election
@Boomerang_Brian Reposting here so we don't get off topic. Why do you think Whaley over Cranley is very important? Seems like a less significant difference than Dewine over Renacci (tho Renacci's probably toast).
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2022 U.S. Senate Race
This may be enough to convince me to vote in the Republican primary. Although I'm sure many on this forum (myself included) may not like a lot of Dolan's positions, I don't think you can overstate how much better he is than Mandel or Vance. Does anyone have polling on Nina Turner vs. Shontel Brown. Does Turner have more than an outside chance of winning? (I don't want to get off topic, but this has impact on which primary I vote in.)