ragerunner

Maybe this might be an answer. Time will tell. Greece Gets Hint of Leeway From Euro Officials "European governments hinted at giving Greece extra time to meet budget-cut targets, as long as the financially stricken country’s feuding politicians put together a ruling coalition committed to austerity. Calling talk of a Greek pullout from the euro “nonsense” and “propaganda,” Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker said only a “fully functioning” Greek government would be entitled to tinker with the conditions attached to 240 billion euros ($308 billion) of rescue aid." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-14/euro-chiefs-may-offer-leniency-to-greece.html

I have no problem with changing the thread name at this time (Global Financial Crisis is as good as any). As long as the current posts can remain in the thread. Not sure how to do that though.

I like the second one. But probably to long. :wink: 'Global Financial Crisis' seems short and to the point. We can go back to having recession in the title once we stop 'printing' a positive GDP.

Not at all (I honestly don't know). But, does the thread title indicate anything about the UK, France, Japan, Italy, Spain, China, etc? I was under the impression that the "US" in the title was indicating "United States"..... and when I ask whether "we" are still in a recession, I mean the United States So sensitive. Let's face it, YOU get offended either way. Your not sure? The point that I was trying to make was, is the US really decoupled from the rest of the world. I personally think we are not and that is why I post information from Europe and Asia. You like to say things like don't be so sensitive, this thread is doom and gloom, etc. These types of statements are used to deflect from the real conversation and add no value to the thread. If you have real economic data that you want to use to support an opinion (not just "I honestly don't know") than please make this thread more valuable with that knowledge. I have always said its great to see different data points and different points of view.

So are you saying that the UK is not in a recession, that France is not at zero growth, that Japan doesn't have negative growth in its most recent GDP, that India's manufacturing is not contracting rapidly, that Italy is not in a recession, that Spain is not in a recession, that China's growth is not slowing significantly and that its electrical demand is not 50% less than last year? If this type of information is what you call a spin, I'm fine with that. I call it reality. Also, if it is not apparent by now I believe if we had not 'printed' trillions over the last few years the US would officially have a negative GDP at this time as well. Continuing to use debt as a way to show positive GDP growth is not sustainable forever.

Maybe we truly have decoupled from the rest of the world economically. Europe will not affect us, China will not affect us, India will not affect us, as well as Japan. :? Home-builder sentiment at best since recession "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home builder sentiment improved in May to the highest reading since the recession on an upturn in sales and traffic, a trade group said Tuesday. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 from 24 in April. The April index was initially reported to be 25. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a reading of 27." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-sentiment-at-best-since-recession-2012-05-15 New York Empire State index rebounds in May "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Manufacturing activity in the New York rebounded in May, almost entirely erasing a surprising decline in the prior month, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Tuesday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-empire-state-index-rebounds-in-may-2012-05-15 Greece heads for fresh elections after coalition talks fail "Greek politicians have failed to form a coalition government and fresh elections will be held next month, plunging into chaos the country's future in the euro." "The leaders of Greece's main political parties had been trying to form a coalition since elections nine days ago. The anti-austerity Left Coalition party Syriza, which is widely expected to win the new elections in June, refused to take part in this week's discussions." "On Monday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned Greece may be forced to leave the single currency if it refused to implement spending cuts agreed with the European Union. Syriza has already said it will not subject Greece to such cutbacks." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9267247/Greece-heads-for-fresh-elections-after-coalition-talks-fail.html French economy stalls as Francois Hollande is sworn in "The French economy did not grow at all in first three months of 2012 and the previous quarter's growth was cut, in a blow to new president Francois Hollande." "Official figures released on Tuesday showed that French GDP growth was 0pc in the three months to March 31. Growth in the last quarter of 2011 was revised down to 0.1pc from 0.2pc." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9266292/French-economy-stalls-as-Francois-Hollande-is-sworn-in.html Japan's economy shrinks more than expected in Q4 "LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) -- Japan's economy shrank by more than expected in the October-December quarter, as a strong yen and collateral economic damage from flooding in Thailand took their toll. Real gross domestic product contracted by 0.6% during the quarter, the Cabinet Office reported Monday. The result was deeper than expected falls of 0.3% and 0.4% in separate economist surveys by Reuters and Dow Jones Newswires, respectively. On an annualized basis, the economy contracted 2.3% in the final quarter of 2011." http://articles.marketwatch.com/2012-02-12/markets/31057741_1_japan-s-gdp-cabinet-office-economy

Some good news in the US not so good news in other parts of the world. Consumer sentiment in May at post-recession high "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Consumer sentiment edged higher in May to the best reading since the recession, as declining gasoline prices appear to have offset slowing job-markets growth." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-in-may-at-post-recession-high-2012-05-11 India’s industrial production drops 3.5% in March Inflation’s a potential impediment to action by Reserve Bank of India "MUMBAI (MarketWatch) — India’s industrial production contracted sharply in March, raising concerns over a slowing economy while lifting expectations of further cuts in interest rates by the nation’s central bank." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/indias-industrial-production-drops-35-in-march-2012-05-11 China April economic data look weak: analysts "HONG KONG (MarketWatch) — Chinese economic data for April printed weaker than expected, adding to evidence of an accelerating slowdown and highlighting what some analysts said was the need for government action to stabilize the rate of decline." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-april-economic-data-look-weak-analysts-2012-05-11

When your mark to fantasy loses money your have some issues. Maybe they should take notes from GS who only had one losing day last quarter. :wink: J.P. Morgan has significant credit portfolio loss "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. dropped after the bank said in a regulatory filing late Thursday it had "significant" mark-to-market losses in its synthetic credit portfolio. Shares fell 4.5% to $38.87 in after-hours activity. In a Securities and Exchange Commission filing, the bank said its synthetic credit portfolio had proved to be riskier and more volatile than expected. J.P. Morgan said losses have been partially offset from sales in the Chief Investment Office's available-for-sale securities portfolio. CEO Jamie Dimon held a conference call late Thursday to discuss the results." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-has-significant-credit-portfolio-loss-2012-05-10?dist=afterbell JPMorgan shares slump 6.5pc after chief Jamie Dimon reveals unexpected $800m trading loss "JPMorgan Chase shares fell 6.5pc in after-hours trading after it said it has taken an unexpected $800m market loss in a trading book after a hedging strategy failed." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9258839/JPMorgan-shares-slump-6.5pc-after-chief-Jamie-Dimon-reveals-unexpected-800m-trading-loss.html BofA will have their own loses on their mark to market fantasy sheets in the future. It just a question of how much and when. BofA to slash mortgage balances by $100,000 or more NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Bank of America will significantly slash mortgage balances for as many as 200,000 borrowers. "As part of the $26 billion settlement reached between the five major mortgage servicers, the federal government and the attorneys general of 49 states and District of Columbia last month, Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) customers who qualify could see their mortgages reduced by an average of $100,000 or more, according to bank spokesman Rick Simon." http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/09/real_estate/mortgage-settlement/index.htm

Revised up, giving this week a 1,000 person drop. Rinse and repeat for the 60th time. U.S. jobless claims fall slightly Pace of new filings for benefits little changed over past 3 months "First-time jobless claims fell by a scant 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000 in the week ended May 5, the Labor Department said. Claims from two weeks ago were revised up to 368,000 from an original reading of 365,000." "Claims have zigzagged between a low of 361,000 in early February and a high of 392,000 in late April, indicating that the pace of hiring has leveled off after a fast start entering 2012. The last two monthly employment reports have seen marked deterioration from the 200,000-plus new jobs created during the late-winter months." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-flat-in-first-week-of-may-2012-05-10

Everything is just fine, nothing to see here, move along now. Spain nationalizes No. 4 bank as crisis deepens "The decision announced Wednesday night came after investors sent Spanish government bond yields soaring and stocks plunging. They are concerned Spain may be forced to ask for a bailout like those taken by Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Earlier Wednesday, Spain's financial markets were shaken as investors worried about the fallout from Greece's political crisis and awaited details of the Spanish government's next move to shore up its banking sector. Spanish banks are largely frozen out of international capital markets and have been hobbled in their abilities to provide credit to businesses and consumers." http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/05/09/spain-bankia-debt-crisis.html?cmp=rss

A quick look across the pond where things are getting a little rocky again. Investors seek safety as fears of Greece euro exit spark sell-off "Leader of left-wing Syriza party says Greeks voted against the "barbaric bailout" and austerity pledges are "null and void", while British 10-year borrowing costs drop to historic lows." "And it isn't just Samaras who believes that refusing to follow through with austerity promises would be bad news. Joerg Asmussen, a German member of the ECB board, has used a newspaper interview to warn France and Greece to stick to their fiscal commitments. Speaking to Handelsblatt he said: I expect France to implement the fiscal pact unchanged. In addition, I expect the new government to respect the promise to reduce the public deficit next year below the three-percent (of GDP) mark. It must be clear to all that the fiscal pact - supplemented with a growth passage - must not be weakened in its substance. It must be clear to Greece that there is no alternative to the agreed restructuring programme if it wants to remain a eurozone member." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9250673/Debt-crisis-live.html

March U.S. home prices see first climb since July "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices edged up 0.6% in March, the first monthly rise since July 2011, according to CoreLogic. That represents a year-on-year fall of 0.6%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/march-us-home-prices-see-first-climb-since-july-2012-05-08

Just when you think they have run out of ammo they find a new bullet. They have three monetary tricks (at minimum) they can/are still using. Print, keep rates historically low, and confuse the system. And is India joining the parade of economic issues? Either the Chinese are becoming more environmentally concerned or the slow down in China is more severe than being report by the goverment stats. Xie: Emerging markets to shadow U.S., Europe Commentary: Europe, U.S. have run out of monetary tricks "BEIJING ( Caixin Online ) — Industrial production is stalling in India, and its credit rating may be downgraded to junk. Power consumption in China has slowed to about half of last year’s level, while consumer price inflation remains stubbornly high. It’s obvious the world’s largest emerging economies are no longer in a position to carry the global economy through tough times, as they did during the “recovery” years of 2009-’11. And that spells trouble for the United States and Europe." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/emerging-market-woes-to-shadow-us-europe-2012-05-07

Well, my problem is that every time you claim to be focusing on the big picture, you are using numbers, but those numbers aren't supportable. In fact, even here, you claim to want to talk about the big picture...and you then go right back into numbers. So which of the numbers that I used in this example do you not agree with? I only used official data and your own number of boomers retiring. So if you agree with these official numbers, please explain why the workforce number is at a 30 year low. Because its pretty clear its not because the amount of available workers is currently declining.

Actually, it is reported quite frequently, especially at Fox. Regardless, the trend is what matters and what smart economist pay attention to. The trend is still positive, no matter how much one can nitpick at the way the smaller samples are released. Fox, Zerohedge, etc. will highlight the inconsistencies, but conveniently leaves out any explanation. The most basic explanation is that the initial release is based on preliminary data from the states, not the DOL cooking the books. When the states update their data, as they are required to do each week, additional claims are added. The fact that we have a lot of reactionary investors who latch on to the initial release is just a convenient consequence produced by the free market. This is not historically the norm for this number to always be revised upward (take a look). Please don't take this comment as a political comment because I used fox news. I firmly believe the republicans would have the same thing done. Matter of fact this may not be about the republicans or democrats. This maybe about those that hold the purse strings. While the number may still be above zero its clearly declining and 115,000 new jobs is not enough to take care of the incoming workforce. In other words we added to the unemployed last month. Add in that we lost 812,000 full time jobs and replaced many of them with 508,000 part time jobs and you have employment going in the wrong direction. You also have the little issue of the 342,000 that 'disappeared' from the stats as well. I consider all these things not a positive move. It just takes moving past the headline and politics.

The MSM is starting to talk about how the jobless claims numbers always seem to come in low for the first headline than are quietly revised up later to make the next headline look better. Is the government cooking the books on job numbers? "ELIZABETH MACDONALD, FOX BUSINESS: You know, we are seeing some weird things coming up in the jobs numbers, Greta. And you know, we're taking a dispassionate, kind of clinical look at the jobs numbers and we're seeing some kind of oddities that even Wall Street shops from both sides of the aisle are finding, as well. Take the first-time jobless claims -- in other words, people who are filing for unemployment for the first time. For 59 of the last 60 weeks, those numbers have been revised higher after the fact. So what that means is, is when you have the present week's number and you compare it to the prior week's number, it looks great because that prior week's number was revised higher." Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/on-air/on-the-record/2012/05/03/government-cooking-books-job-numbers#ixzz1uE2t44qT

On your one question, yes that was including immigrants, that is why it is a 2030 numbers. Maybe it would be better to not focus on what numbers are right or wrong etc. What I would like to focus on is the 'big picture'. Let assume that 10,000 baby boomers are actually retiring every day (I think that estimate is not playing out because of the economy, but let go with it.) Retires 365*10,000=3,650,000 retires every year New Workers Incoming workforce per month is 150,000=1.8 million new workers needing a job each month Current unemployed by official US BLS data 12.7 million Total available for work So in this year alone we have 14.5 million workers available to enter the workforce If we add no new unemployed to this number and no more new workers coming of age to work (after year one) we could fill all the vacant baby boomer jobs for the next 3 years straight. So the workforce participation drop (to a 30 year low) is not due to a lack of workers/boomers, it due to a lack of available jobs. Which is one of the main topics I have tried to focus on in this thread. These numbers also don't take into consideration the unemployed that have fallen off the offical government unemployment list (know as the U6 number, which is much bigger). (Example - Like the 342,000 that just vanished off the recent numbers). I would be happy to hear a different explanation of why the workforce participation rate is dropping if you have one. Always glad to have a different point of view on this thread. But, I think we can safely say its not do to the lack of available workers or a shrinking workforce capacity.

This the data being use by the regional mpo in the Denver Metro area. These are national stats. 'Boomers' Population 76 million Born between 1946-1964 (late 40s to mid 60s) Source: http://www.bbhq.com/bomrstat.htm 'Gen Y' In 2009 represented 25% of the population 90 million strong in 2030 Born between 1979-1994 Whatever source or data point you look at, I think if you add the Gen Y population, immigration, the unemployed and a slower number of boomers that are retiring, you easily have more incoming workforce than retiring workforce at this time. Which should mean an increase in workforce participation not a large decrease. As you can see the majority of the boomers are still in the workforce (which means they should have little impact on the workforce number at this time) and a noticable chunk of the Ys should also be in the workforce (even if they are just part time while in college, etc).

Good question. Our population continues to grow in the US so the amount of people that should be in the workforce should not shrinking (even with the boomers). The Y generation that is now coming into the workforce is actually larger than the boomer population. For every boomer that does retire we have 1+ 'Y-generations' workers ready to replace that job number. We should be seeing a growth in the workforce not the reverse. On top of this issue we have fewer boomers retiring then what was expected. This is why 1 out of every 2 college grads are either under-employed or unemployed. Plus, we also have millions of Americans that are available to work that are unemployed. I believe these issues actually make the workforce numbers even worse than they appear on the surface.

The employment situation in the US is starting to deteriorate noticably again. U.S. economy gains 115,000 jobs in April Unemployment dips to 8.1% as more people stop looking for work "The unemployment rate fell slightly to 8.1% from 8.2%, but the decline stemmed mainly from an increase in the number of people who stopped looking for work. Some 342,000 people dropped out of the labor force to mark the second decrease in a row, the Labor Department said Friday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-economy-gains-115000-jobs-in-april-2012-05-04 Here is some details of the data. Not good at all. Nothing a little QE3 can't help. People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981 "It is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000. This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/people-not-labor-force-soar-522000-labor-force-participation-rate-lowest-1981 Also. "...full time jobs dropped to 114,478 from 115,290, an epic drop of 812,000 in full time jobs which was the biggest since... March 2009! The offset? Why a surge in part-time jobs of course, which increased by 508,000 in the month of April." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/two-scariest-charts-todays-nfp-report-or-real-new-part-time-normal

Previous number revised up again. Nice drop for this week, should be interesting to see what the revision shows. U.S. jobless claims drop 27,000 to 365,000 "Applications for benefits decline for first time in one month" http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-drop-27000-to-365000-2012-05-03-835590 Planned job cuts up 7% in April: Challenger "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Planned job cuts rose 7.1% to 40,559 in April, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. That's also 11.2% higher than April 2011. Year-to-date, planned job cuts are up 9.8%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/planned-job-cuts-up-7-in-april-challenger-2012-05-03 April same-store sales are soft at big retailers "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Big retailers delivered disappointing sales for April, with Macy's Inc., Target Corp. and Saks Inc. all falling short of expectations that were set low to compensate for a lack of Easter buying as the holiday fell early this year." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/april-same-store-sales-are-soft-at-big-retailers-2012-05-03 ISM services index slows to 5-month low in April "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Institute for Supply Management said its services sector index in April dropped to 53.5% from 56.0% in March to mark the worst reading since December." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/ism-services-index-slows-to-six-month-low-in-april-2012-05-03

Interesting comments from Feldstein, who was the chair of the National Bureau of Economic Research until 2008, on Bloomberg News. He discusses the recent GDP number and how the FED is pumping a new bubble in the stock market that ultimately will bust. We have become and economy of bubbles, tech bubble, housing bubble, stock market bubble. Feldstein on the U.S. economy: "We are not doing very well. The economy is just coming along at a snail's pace. The first quarter numbers that we just got last week were not very good at all. The GDP number was 2.2%. That was a disappointment, but you know, it was all automobiles. 1.6 out of the 2.2 was motor vehicle production. So, people were catching up after not being able to buy them the year before. So, this is a very weak economy. The payroll employment numbers, we are going to get some new ones in April. Let's hope they are better than March where it fell by half. The stock market is, I think, responding to the Fed. I think the real danger is that this is a bubble in the stock market created by low long-term interest rates that the Fed has engineered." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nbers-martin-feldstein-bashes-deplorable-us-economy-says-bernanke-has-engineered-another-stock-

And the previous month was revised lower. :wink2: Hiring slows as ADP reports 119,000 new April jobs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/slowdown-in-recent-hiring-adp-2012-05-02 U.S. manufacturing growth picks up in April ISM’s index shows increase in new orders, employment "The Institute for Supply Management said Tuesday its survey of senior executives in the manufacturing sector rose to 54.8% from 53.4% in March, the highest reading since June 2011." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-manufacturing-growth-picks-up-in-april-2012-05-01?link=MW_story_insert Euro-zone unemployment hits new euro-era high http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-zone-unemployment-hits-new-euro-era-high-2012-05-02 Euro-zone manufacturing PMI confirms April drop http://www.marketwatch.com/story/euro-zone-manufacturing-pmi-confirms-april-drop-2012-05-02 The European Recession Spreads "There was no good news out of Europe today, which makes it like most days over the past two months. On top of labor strikes due to austerity, changes in leadership of some countries based on new elections and troubling GDP data, new Markit research shows that European purchasing managers index reached a 34-month low of 45.9. Markit reports that there were “Production declines across big-four economies for first time in the year-to-date.” As he reviewed the data, Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: Manufacturing in the Eurozone took a further lurch deeper into a new recession in April, with the PMI suggesting that output fell at worryingly steep quarterly rate of over 2%. Although several of the weakest national economies suffered very large PMI drops, the most troubling data came from Germany. Its PMI reached a 33-month low of 46.2, which puts it back to mid-recession levels." Read more: The European Recession Spreads - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/05/02/the-european-recession-spreads/#ixzz1tiuWKX1j

Insight: Falling home prices drag new buyers under water "(Reuters) - More than 1 million Americans who have taken out mortgages in the past two years now owe more on their loans than their homes are worth, and Federal Housing Administration loans that require only a tiny down payment are partly to blame." "It is a sobering indication the U.S. housing market remains deeply troubled, with home values still falling in many parts of the country, and raises the question of whether low-down payment loans backed by the FHA are putting another generation of buyers at risk." http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/26/us-usa-housing-negative-idUSBRE83P12E20120426

Chicago PMI slows to 29-month low in April "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Chicago PMI dropped in April to 56.2% from 63.3% in March to reach a 29-month low, as gauges for production and new orders slowed dramatically, ISM-Chicago said Monday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-slows-to-29-month-low-in-april-2012-04-30?link=MW_latest_news