ragerunner

February builder sentiment rises for fifth month "The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo housing market index rose to 29 in February from 25 in January, meaning the gauge has more than doubled since September. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected a reading of 26. Though that’s still far below the level considered “good” — the seasonally adjusted gauge needs a reading of 50 to do that, which hasn’t been the case since April 2006 — it does indicate improving sentiment for builders." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/builder-sentiment-in-feb-climbs-for-fifth-month-2012-02-15 New York factory activity improves in February Manufacturing off to solid start in 2012 "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — An index tracking manufacturing activity in the New York region jumped in February to its highest level since June 2010, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported Wednesday. Although the details of the report were softer than the headline index suggested, economists said the data show that manufacturing is on solid footing at the start of the year." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-york-factory-activity-improves-in-february-2012-02-15 Here is a more detailed breakdown of the data that looks past the headline. Despite Two Thirds Of Components Declining, Empire Fed Prints At Highest Since June 2010 "Chalk this one to "seasonal adjustments" or something, cause we no longer have any clue what is going on with the data fudging in America. When it comes to banana republic economic indicators the US is rapidly eclipsing China - case in point the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, which despite seeing the majority, or 6 out of 9 sub indices, declining in February, managed to not only rise, but beat the highest Wall Street estimate, printing at 19.53, the highest since June 2010, on expectations of 15.00, and compared to a previous print of 13.48. What lead to this epic surge? Why nothing short of a decline in just about two thirds of the components: New Orders declined from 21.69 to 22.79, Unfilled Orders declined from -5.49 to -7.06; Inventories declined from 6.59 to -4.71, Prices Paid declined from 26.37 to 25.88; Prices received declined from 23.08 to 15.29, and Number of Employees declined from 12.09 to 11.76. What increased? Shipments, Average Employee Workweek, and, drumroll, Delivery Times." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/despite-two-thirds-components-declining-empire-fed-prints-highest-june-2010

Interesting list of debt levels and stats. The 10 Countries Deepest in Debt "1. Japan > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 233.1% > General government debt: $13.7 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $33,994 > Nominal GDP: $5.88 trillion > Unemployment rate: 4.6% > Credit rating: Aa3 2. Greece > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 168.2% > General government debt: $489 billion > GDP per capita (PPP): $28,154 > Nominal GDP: $303 billion > Unemployment rate: 19.2% > Credit rating: Ca 3. Italy > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 120.5% > General government debt: $2.54 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $31,555 > Nominal GDP: $2.2 trillion > Unemployment rate: 8.9% > Credit rating: A3 4. Ireland > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 108.1% > General government debt: $225 billion > GDP per capita (PPP): $39,727 > Nominal GDP: $217 billion > Unemployment rate: 14.5% > Credit rating: Ba1 5. Portugal > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 101.6% > General government debt: $257 billion > GDP per capita (PPP): $25,575 > Nominal GDP: $239 billion > Unemployment rate: 13.6% > Credit rating: Ba3 6. Belgium > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 97.2% > General government debt: $479 billion > GDP per capita (PPP): $37,448 > Nominal GDP: $514 billion > Unemployment rate: 7.2% > Credit rating: Aa1 7. United States > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 85.5% > General government debt: $12.8 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $47,184 > Nominal GDP: $15.13 trillion > Unemployment rate: 8.3% > Credit rating: Aaa 8. France > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 85.4% > General government debt: $2.26 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $33,820 > Nominal GDP: $2.76 trillion > Unemployment rate: 9.9% > Credit rating: Aaa 9. Germany > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 81.8% > General government debt: $2.79 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $37,591 > Nominal GDP: $3.56 trillion > Unemployment rate: 5.5% 10. United Kingdom > Debt as a pct. of GDP: 80.9% > General government debt: $1.99 trillion > GDP per capita (PPP): $35,860 > Nominal GDP: $2.46 trillion > Unemployment rate: 8.4% > Credit rating: Aaa" Read more: The 10 Countries Deepest in Debt - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2012/02/14/the-tencountries-deepest-in-debt/#ixzz1mOtIAS5w

There will be a lot of 'damage control' in the media this weekend in an effort to put more lipstick back on this pig. If this PIIG goes belly up Wall Street has not priced it in. Add in the large selling by insiders and you have a not so pleasant outcome if this goes south. Of course Bernanke has promised to protect American banks from any fallout from the Greece. Debt crisis: live "The Greek Government heads for a reshuffle as five cabinet members resign and cast doubt over the implementation of tough austerity measures required to secure a €130bn bailout package, while PM Lucas Papademos warns default would be "uncontrolled chaos". http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9073437/Debt-crisis-live.html Greek police union wants to arrest EU/IMF officials "(Reuters) - Greece's largest police union has threatened to issue arrest warrants for officials from the country's European Union and International Monetary Fund lenders for demanding deeply unpopular austerity measures. In a letter obtained by Reuters Friday, the Federation of Greek Police accused the officials of "...blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty" and said one target of its warrants would be the IMF's top official for Greece, Poul Thomsen." http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/10/us-greece-police-idUSTRE8190UC20120210

Hopefully they can clean the clogged pipe and allow things to finally move on in a few years. We shall see. Foreclosure Deal to Spur U.S. Home Seizures "The $25 billion settlement with banks over foreclosure abuses may trigger a wave of home seizures, inflicting short-term pain on delinquent U.S. borrowers while making a long-term housing recovery more likely. Lenders slowed the pace of foreclosures as they negotiated with attorneys general in all 50 states for more than a year over allegations of faulty and fraudulent paperwork used to repossess homes. With today’s agreement, banks are likely to resume property seizures." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-09/foreclosure-deal-to-spur-new-wave-of-u-s-home-seizures-help-heal-market.html

More support for the idea that unemployment is seeing a drop because more and more people are dropping out of the labor force stats. If we keep this up we should have a 'health' 4 or 5% unemployment rate in the next few years. Then all will be well. Add in that a large majority of those that do find jobs are finding jobs paying less than what they had been earning (see previous chart in this thread) and you have a poorer and poorer Main Street in America. Unemployment Decline Masks U.S. Labor Force Drop: Economy "The unemployment rate’s unexpected drop to a three-year low has overshadowed a less-positive labor- market development: fewer Americans are looking for work. Last week’s Labor Department announcement that the jobless rate fell to 8.3 percent in January sent stocks and bond yields higher. The same report showed the share of working-age people in the labor force had declined to the lowest level in 29 years. The so-called participation rate was cited by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday to support his assessment that the rate of unemployment obscures vulnerabilities in the job market." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-08/jobless-decline-masks-drop-in-u-s-labor-force-as-fewer-seek-work-economy.html How much higher can Wall Street go and ignore the world around it? The insiders are selling heavily Commentary: July was last time insiders were equally as bearish "CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Corporate insiders are now selling their companies’ stock at a rate not seen since late last July. That’s a scary parallel indeed, since that late-July spike in selling came just days before one of the more painful two-week periods in the stock market in years." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-insiders-are-selling-heavily-2012-02-09?link=MW_popular

As pointed out in the article, the recent jobs reports was a positive move in a right direction. But, when your have few works than in 2001 on the books and at current growth we won't have full employment again until 2019, its going to be a bumpy ride. Things Are Not O.K. "So, about that jobs report: it was genuinely good, certainly compared with the dreariness that has become the norm. Notably, for once falling unemployment was the real thing, reflecting growing availability of jobs rather than workers dropping out of the labor force, and hence out of the unemployment measure." "That said, our economy remains deeply depressed. As the Economic Policy Institute points out, we started 2012 with fewer workers employed than in January 2001 — zero growth after 11 years, even as the population, and therefore the number of jobs we needed, grew steadily. The institute estimates that even at January’s pace of job creation it would take us until 2019 to return to full employment. And we should never forget that the persistence of high unemployment inflicts enormous, continuing damage on our economy and our society, even if the unemployment rate is gradually declining. Bear in mind, in particular, the fact that long-term unemployment — the percentage of workers who have been out of work for six months or more — remains at levels not seen since the Great Depression." http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/06/opinion/krugman-things-are-not-ok.html?_r=1&hp

You are correct. But, the BLS has stated on their own website that their data usually has more accuracy when the economy is doing well and less accuracy during downturns/poor economic times. That is why their adjustments recently have totaled a million plus in the negative column.

I think each person must decide the value of the data being put out. Both up and down. I personally struggle with the BLS data that get seasonlly adjusted and automatically assumes a certain amount of jobs are being created in certain industries every month no matter what. We also saw some noticable data adjustments on the high end during the run up to the last election. Why would we expect anything different during the run up to this years national elections. This is not a political comment, both parties seem to enjoy this type of data assistance. Once the election is over than numbers will get their slow revisions after no one really pays any attention. So what is the really job number over the last two months? TrimTabs Explains Why Today's "Very, Very Suspicious" NFP Number Is Really Down 2.9 Million In Past 2 Months In one of his more colorful episodes, and rightfully so, Charles Biderman notes that "Either there is something massively changed in the income tax collection world, or there is something very, very suspicious about today’s BLS hugely positive number," adding, "Actual jobs, not seasonally adjusted, are down 2.9 million over the past two months. It is only after seasonal adjustments – made at the sole discretion of the Bureau of Labor Statistics economists – that 2.9 million fewer jobs gets translated into 446,000 new seasonally adjusted jobs." A 3.3 million "adjustment" solely at the discretion of the BLS? And this from the agency that just admitted it was underestimating the so very critical labor participation rate over the past year? http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trimtabs-explains-why-todays-very-very-suspicious-nfp-number-really-down-29-million-past-2-mont

And still dropping. Three percent here and three precent there, really starts to add up over time. U.S. house prices slide 1.3% in November Case-Shiller index shows 32.9% drop from peak "The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite home price index dropped 1.3% to take the year-on-year drop to 3.7%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-house-prices-slide-13-in-november-2012-01-31

This index is really starting to show some serious strain going on in the world economy. Chart of the Day: The Baltic Dry Index "The index – often used as a proxy for the health of the global economy as it reflects the prices charged for shipping commodities such as metals, coal or grain around the world – has fallen by 61% since October." "The index was at 842 at yesterday’s close – down from its 12-month high of 2173 last October." "He said: “This collapse looks similar to the falls we saw in the Baltic Dry ahead of the recessions of the late 1970s and early 1990s – but this drop is actually steeper.” “What this is signalling is that the world economy is slowing down much more quickly than people have been thinking.” http://www.efinancialnews.com/story/2012-01-25/chart-of-day-baltic-dry-shipping-rates-fall?mod=mostread-PE

This is shocking? :-o Citigroup sued for fraud over $1 billion of CDOs "NEW YORK (Reuters) - Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C - News) was sued for fraud by Loreley Financing over nearly $1 billion worth of collateralized debt obligations purchased in 2006 and 2007. Citigroup is accused of defrauding Loreley into purchasing "fraudulent investments that are now worthless," Loreley said in a complaint filed Tuesday in New York State Supreme Court in Manhattan. Citi used the CDOs to offload the risks of toxic mortgage-backed securities on its books and to help preferred clients "short" the housing market, the lawsuit claims." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/citigroup-sued-fraud-over-1-233654800.html?source=patrick.net I guess people actually do need a job, and a steady income to afford a new home or feel secure enough to make such a purchase. December new-home sales dip to end worst-ever year Sales for 2011 slump to record low "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. sales of new homes retreated in December, perhaps a fitting end to a year that saw a record low level of sales." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/december-new-home-sales-dip-to-end-worst-ever-year-2012-01-26?dist=afterbell

The unemployment number could drop to 4% (or whatever) at this rate by people just running out of unemployment benefits and becoming discouraged and not look for work. Yet our employment situation will really not improve much. But the headline numbers will look great and that should make everyone feel better and buy another flat screen tv. :clap: Here in Colorado the unemployment rate dropped one tenth of a percentage point yet "...Nonfarm payroll jobs — tracked in a separate survey of employers — actually declined by 4,400 during the month." Read more: Colorado unemployment declines to 7.9 percent in December - The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_19806958#ixzz1kPhSPyFD Read The Denver Post's Terms of Use of its content: http://www.denverpost.com/termsofuse So our headline number dropped but the number of people employed in the state dropped 4,400. But once again the headline looks great.

In other words, print, extend, manipulate, etc. in an organized worldwide fashion. These types of statements show that a large chunk of the modern world's economy is clearly on the edge. I am sure just 5 years ago very few people would have ever dreamed of such a comment being made by the IMF or even the need for such a comment. Things have changed a lot since then. IMF chief urges action to avoid ‘1930s moment’ Lagarde calls for larger firewalls, deeper integration in Europe “What we must all understand is that this is a defining moment,” Lagarde said at the German Council on Foreign Relations, according to the prepared text of her speech. “It is not about saving any one country or region. It is about saving the world from a downward economic spiral. It is about avoiding a 1930s moment, in which inaction, insularity and rigid ideology combine to cause a collapse in global demand.” The “1930s moment” appears to be a reference to the Great Depression of the 1930s, when the crash on Wall Street in 1929 triggered an economic depression in the U.S. which later spread around the world." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/imf-chief-urges-action-to-avoid-1930s-moment-2012-01-23 Will Europe finally become the 'United States of Europe'.

If this is true, then Greece has officially defaulted no matter what the spin maybe. Debt crisis: live "Investors in Greek bonds are reportedly facing a haircut of up to 70pc as IIF talks continue over the weekend, while Germany would consider a bourse tax as a compromise if this could bring Britain in line with its EU partners." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9026792/Debt-crisis-live.html And this is from one of the biggest 'cheerleaders'. IMF slashes global forecast on eurozone crisis, with drastic falls in Italy and Spain "The International Monetary Fund has slashed its global growth forecast for this year and exhorted the European Central Bank to boost liquidity to stave off a deeper eurozone crisis." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9026408/IMF-slashes-global-forecast-on-eurozone-crisis-with-drastic-falls-in-Italy-and-Spain.html I believe this has become the plan of attack. Start with Greece, default without saying they have defaulted. Give the markets a little time to digest what happened, then do the same with Portugal, Spain, Italy, Hungary, etc. At the same time pump the system with as much money through ECB, IMF, Federal Reserve and other 'creative' financial instruments and hope they can keep the game afloat. Portugal to need "debt haircut" as economy tips into Grecian downward spiral "Portugal's borrowing costs have jumped to record highs and are tracking the moves seen in the culminating phase of Greece's debt crisis, dashing hopes that the country will be able to stave off contagion by embracing drastic austerity." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9026144/Portugal-to-need-debt-haircut-as-economy-tips-into-Grecian-downward-spiral.html

U.S. jobless claims hit lowest weekly level since 2008 "The number of people seeking unemployment benefits plummeted last week to 352,000, the fewest since April 2008. The decline added to evidence that the job market is strengthening. Applications fell 50,000, the biggest drop in the seasonally adjusted figure in more than six years, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, dropped to 379,000. That's the second-lowest such figure in more than three years." http://www.ibj.com/us-unemployment-claims-hit-lowest-weekly-level-since-2008/PARAMS/article/32041 Of course this tidbit was buried well below the headlines. These numbers are going to receive quiet the revision over the next month or so. The real number jumped significantly. Jobless claims fall 50,000 to 352,000 Seasonal quirks likely contributed to steep plunge "About 7.83 million people received some kind of state or federal benefit in the week ended Dec. 31, up 493,566 from the prior week. Total claims are reported with a two-week lag." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-jobless-claims-fall-50000-to-352000-2012-01-19-847180

Bingo. The problem they have is this process means their main consumers are getting poor in the US and Europe. So they better make Indian and Chinese citizens richer really quick or this house of cards is going to be difficult to hold up.

Headline PPI Drops By 0.1%, Core PPI Rises By 0.3%, Highest Y/Y NSA Jump Since June 2009, BLS To Change PPI Weights "Finally, and in pulling a page straight out of the BLS playbook, the BLS announced it would change the weighting in its PPI categories. "The new weights, which will be introduced in February 2012 with the release of January 2012 index data, will be based on shipment values from the year 2007. These value weights come from the Census of Manufactures, the Census of Mining, the Census of Services, and the Census of Agriculture. PPI weights have been based on 2002 census shipment values since January 2007. All PPIs will be affected by this weight update, including all the industry net output indexes, as well as indexes for traditional commodity groupings. In addition, weights will be updated from the 2002 to the 2007 census for all stage-of-processing indexes, durability of product indexes, and special commodity-grouping indexes. This weight revision will not change any arithmetic reference bases for indexes, the dates when PPIs were set to 100." This is a lot of words to say that going forward even more inflation will be crammed into smoothed core price indices, so as to completely ignore any swings in the margins. Because after all who cares about energy and food?" http://www.zerohedge.com/news/headline-ppi-drops-01-core-ppi-rises-03-highest-yy-nsa-jump-june-2009-bls-change-ppi-weights

These are some sobering stats and the numbers seem to be getting worse. White-Collar Workers Join Crowd Straining Food Banks "The portion of college-degree holders in New York who said they had difficulty affording food increased to 30 percent in 2011 from 24 percent in the previous year, according to a survey of 827 adults released today by the nonprofit Food Bank for New York City. Only about 7 percent of those who lost jobs after the 2008 financial crisis have found work that matched or exceeded their previous job, according to a study released last month by the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University." http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-11/mercedes-owners-ph-d-holders-join-swelling-crowd-straining-soup-kitchens?category=%2Fnews%2Fmostread

Pretend and extend. Rinse and repeat. Man that can is getting heavy. Financial Frankness Is a Bad Dream for a Bank: Jonathan Weil "A telling example is Regions Financial Corp. (RF), which has about $130 billion of assets and still hasn’t repaid its $3.5 billion of bailout money from the Troubled Asset Relief Program. The Birmingham, Alabama-based bank pulled out all the stops in the third quarter to sidestep losses on its intangibles, as the research service FootnotedPro highlighted in a Nov. 4 report to its customers. Avoiding the Problem To help avoid writing down goodwill, Regions raised its estimate of the control premium an investor would pay to buy its commercial-banking unit, to 60 percent from 30 percent, even though Regions’ stock market value fell by almost half during the third quarter. (A control premium is the amount a buyer is willing to pay over current market value to purchase a company.) Basically, Regions was saying it disagreed with the market, which naturally made the company more valuable in management’s eyes. Today Regions has a $6 billion market capitalization, slightly more than its $5.6 billion of goodwill, and trades for 44 percent of book. So the goodwill supposedly was worth almost as much as Regions itself, which makes little sense because goodwill isn’t salable. Yesterday after the markets closed, Regions said it would take a $673 million fourth-quarter charge to earnings, mostly due to elimination of goodwill, after agreeing to sell its Morgan Keegan investment-banking unit to Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF) for $930 million. You have to wonder if Regions should have known a lot sooner that the business wasn't worth as much as its balance sheet said." "Other struggling lenders in Europe and the U.S. will see both examples as more reason to paper over their losses, which will make their problems and the eventual cleanup worse. Delay- and-pray is never a good strategy. Unfortunately it’s the only one a lot of zombie banks have left." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-12/financial-frankness-is-a-bad-dream-for-a-bank-commentary-by-jonathan-weil.html

I think a big issue with many things related to our society and economics is that we are now in year 5 of this downturn. What makes it worse is I think people on Main Street are starting to realize this may not be over tomorrow or even in 5 more years. They look at the job opportunities, cost of living, inflation, transfer of wealth to the top and the growing debt that is being put on their backs and future generations and are starting to realize 'something is not right in Kansas' anymore. This is not a doom and gloom situtation, but what it does mean is the current system and approach is broken. But I am not sure the Boomers (which make up most of the leaders in Washington, Wall Street, Corporate America, they are the ones that built an unsustainble infrastructure (suburbia) and even are the bulk of the leadership on Main Street) is willing to spread the wealth more evenly and take their lumps with everyone else as a whole (many boomers are hurting as well). With that said the Boomer population is not the only ones that need a fingure pointed at them nor is this a black and white discussion about different generations.

For Jeffery's post above. The middle class in America is clearly under fire, to say the least. More and more people are falling into the poverty catagory and new entries into the workforce are facing lower pay and many of them are strapped with some very high debt loads. This is reflected in the growth of jobs and default levels on student loans (that continue to grow rapidly). We have a lot of low paying jobs replacing middle income and even higher income jobs. They can try and not focus on this trend as they report the headline employment numbers, but it won't make the issue go away on Main Street. We are becoming a poorer nation in our distribution of wealth (those that have and those that have not). This problem is putting a lot of strain on society. From parents being out of the home more and more with multiple jobs and less and less civic envolvement by people in our communities. These things are what has made the middle class the stabilizers of our society for decades. Note: These numbers were not adjusted for inflation, which means actual sales were probably negative for the retailers. I guess all the happy talk about huge holiday sales was nothing more than talk. Of course we had another trade organization (Retail Industry) that kept telling everyone (and the media kept printing it) how holiday sales were really doing good. It almost sounds likes another trade organization that is related to housing (Its never a better time to buy than now, everyone else is doing it). U.S. retail sales rise scant 0.1% in December "Excluding a 1.5% rise in motor vehicles sales, retail sales for the month fell 0.2% — much weaker than the 0.3% gain expected. Sales at gasoline stores fell 1.6% in December. Excluding autos and gasoline, sales were flat on the month. So-called “core” sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, and building materials, fell 0.2% in December. This was the one and only drop in core sales seen during 2011." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/december-retail-sales-rise-scant-01-2012-01-12 Looks like we are moving back to that wonderful 400,000 mark. U.S. unemployment claims rise sharply to 399,000 Number of applications climbs 24,000 to 399,000 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-unemployment-claims-rise-sharply-to-399000-2012-01-12 Looks like home depot might give some of our seasonal workforce another seasonal opportunity. Home Depot to hire 70,000 seasonal workers CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Home Depot will hire 70,000 seasonal workers to get ready for the spring season, the busiest of the year, the home improvement retailer said Thursday. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-depot-to-hire-70000-seasonal-workers-2012-01-12

This is not just about saving housing, this is about saving the banks. Every month that home prices fall the banks real losses continue to grow (even though they continue to do a lot of mark to fantasy on the books and selling the loans to Fannie and Freddie - taxpayers). This election year is going to have some amazing efforts to save this and that. The Fed's Housing Politics The central bank compromises its independence with rank electioneering. "These columns have defended the independence of the Federal Reserve from attacks on the right and left, but after last week the central bank is on its own. It’s impossible to defend the Fed’s rank electioneering as it lobbies for more political and taxpayer intervention in the housing market—just in time for the election campaign. This extraordinary political intrusion came in the form of a 26-page paper that the Fed sent to Capitol Hill last Wednesday, without invitation, graciously offering what Chairman Ben Bernanke called a “framework” for “thinking about certain issues and tradeoffs.” He was underselling his document. The paper is a clear attempt to provide intellectual cover for politicians to spend more taxpayer money to support housing prices..." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203471004577142883453169136.html Time for another housing bailout? "That's what Ben Bernanke appears to be suggesting. The Federal Reserve recently fired off a white paper to Congress chock full of ideas for stabilizing the housing market, Bloomberg reports. While job growth has picked up, the housing market is still headed in the opposite direction, threatening the economy as a whole, the Fed contends. More than $7 trillion in housing equity has vanished - more than half of what was on the books in 2006 before the housing bubble burst. Overall, prices have fallen 33 percent since then, the Fed notes in its report." http://www.boston.com/realestate/news/blogs/renow/2012/01/time_for_anothe.html

Philips, Siemens Hit By European Weakness "Royal Philips Electronics NV (PHIA)’s earnings fell 45 percent, while Siemens AG (SIE) cautioned that its targets have become harder to reach, as the two European manufacturers feel the strain of the region’s economic crisis." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/philips-says-weak-european-markets-held-back-its-profits-in-fourth-quarter.html Tiffany Reduces Annual Profit Forecast "Tiffany & Co. declined the most in more than a month after the world’s second-largest luxury jewelry retailer reduced its annual earnings forecast, hurt by slowing holiday sales growth across all regions." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-10/tiffany-reduces-annual-profit-forecast-as-holiday-growth-slows.html Alcoa Inc. Earnings: Margins Shrink as Costs Rise "Results: Reported a loss of $191 million (18 cents per diluted share) in the quarter. Alcoa Inc. had a net income of $258 million or 25 cents per share in the year earlier quarter. Revenue: Rose 6% to $5.99 billion from the year earlier quarter. Actual vs. Wall St. Expectations: AA fell short of the mean analyst estimate of 5 cents per share. It beat the average revenue estimate of $5.79 billion." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Alcoa-Inc-Earnings-Margins-wscheats-2590076516.html

I have always said I welcome different opinions and stats. Please post them. I think there is no doubt things have clearly improved from 08/09 and have said this many times. But to me the real issue is what is causing the slow but gradual uptick. If its the drop in gas prices, the US consumer depleting its small saving/increasing credit card debt and the printing press, than it not true sustainable growth (which I have posted plenty of data to support this issue). Gas prices are going up and will continue to go up over the long term and if we keep doing QE etc. than the US will see more downgrades and an unsustainable 'recovery'. This has been the focus of this thread more than anything else. Despite Massive infusions of funds, support programs like we have never seen since the great depression and clear manipulation of data (at least in its first release) the return on these efforts have been quite small. We don't have the ability to continue this type of printing and kicking the can for another decade. I have also heard the 'negative' comments for a long time now. I heard it in 2006 when there was no way a recession could happen. Then there was no way home prices could fall, then it was only going to be a short drop before things shot back to the moon. Then the recession would only be very mild and shorted lived, ETC. Well we have been at this for half a decade and food stamps participation continues to grow, household income continues to fall across the US, we are preparing for QE?, the European economy has fall back into a recession, home prices continue to fall and U6 is still around 15%. So I don't see this wonderful recovery, has some economics in the US improved, yes, but that small gradual improvement has come at a very high/unsustainable cost. Its not that difficult to realize for every dollar the US prints the return on that investment continues to drop. That is not a long term strategy for a health economy. If you think this is a positive economic strategy then I would be very happy to hear why and how its going to lead to a full recovery and when? I have layed my case out that this is not a productive approach that will lead to a health economy. I have supported this opinion with plenty of data, charts, articles and history. So just saying this thread is doom and gloom or look unemployment is at 8.5 doesn't get at the real issue or what is going to happen long term.

Useless number. Just because people fall of the unemployment rolls doesn't mean they are now employed. A better number is the percentage of employed and U6. Both have shown some minor improvements, but at this rate we are talking years to return to our peak employment levels before the great recession. As I posted before, I can get the unemployed number to 3% or 4% by just removing several million more Americans from the unemployment rolls (those that run out of unemployment benefits, stop looking for a job and give a few more some minimum wage jobs that make $20,000 compared to their previous job of $40,000 a year). But in the end it doesn't make our economy better or our population more financial stable.