ragerunner

They might be buying boats and toys? That should be more than enough, right?

Solid job growth numbers. We are definitely headed in the right direction at this time for job growth. We still have a very long ways to go to overcome the loses over the last 2 or 3 years, but its moving in the right direction. Hopefully this can keep going. Payrolls climb to 216,000, jobless rate 8.8% Economy enjoys fastest rate of employment growth since May "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Nonfarm payrolls grew by a seasonally adjusted 216,000 in March, their fastest pace since last May, the Labor Department said Friday, in an indication of an improving labor market. According to the survey of 400,000 business establishments, private-sector payrolls increased by 230,000 jobs after rising by 240,000 in February, marking the first time that private-sector job gains have been over 200,000 for two straight months in five years." "Unemployment dropped by 131,000 to 13.5 million for March, while employment rose by 291,000 to 139.9 million. An alternate measure of employment, which includes discouraged workers and those forced to work part-time because of the weak economy, fell to 15.7% from 15.9%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-payroll-climbs-to-216000-jobless-rate-88-2011-04-01

Nope. We have our own issues that are more than enough and if we keep printing we may find that the markets may lose their appetite for our debt at reasonable prices.

Another quick look across the pond. Those pesky Euro Zone debt/default problems just won't go away. I guess things are only good until they are not. If Spain or Italy finally ends up in a Greece, Portugal, Ireland state, it will make this current economic crisis look small. Portugal debt crisis takes turn for worse "Portugal's financial tailspin gathered speed despite political efforts to contain the acute debt crisis that is also unnerving the 17-nation eurozone. The interest rate on Portugal's 10-year bond surged to a euro-era record of 7.9 per cent yesterday - an unsustainable borrowing cost for the cash-strapped country." "Analysts predict Portugal will soon need a bailout like those given to fellow eurozone nations Greece and Ireland." http://www.nzherald.co.nz/economy/news/article.cfm?c_id=34&objectid=10715749 Ireland: Banks Need euro24B More, Will Be Overhauled Irish Central Bank says Ireland's banks need euro24 bln ($34 bln) more to withstand future shocks "Ireland's ailing banks need another euro24 billion ($34 billion) in cash in a move that will leave all of them under state control and facing a complete overhaul, officials announced Thursday in a long-awaited effort to cap a 3-year banking crisis." http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=13263215

Good questions. This potential inflation issue is not just US induced. The european union, and up to recently Japan and many others have been flooding the world markets with 'money'. This money has to go someplace, and a lot of it is going into the stock market, commodities, etc. So in a roundabout way they are creating the inflation. Bernanke clearly stated several years back that he would do everything in his power to ensure we don't have deflation (hasn't works so well for housing). Of course supply and demand is playing its roll in all of this as well. But, supply and demand is clearly not the only driving force behind this. The bad part for main street is, the greatest 'asset' that most people on main street have, is their house and its value continue to decline. Add in that income growth is not even close to keeping up with inflation and you have main street taking a double hit. Not a good combination. Bubbles, I firmly believe that commodities, oil, etc are more economic bubbles. If inflation represses the economy then these bubbles will bust and Wall street and the FEDs will look for the next thing to inflate. This has become Wall Streets (banks, etc) favorite way to make a quick buck and to show economic growth, they did it with the DOT com's, housing, commodities, etc.

Just came across a very timely article for the discussion above. Looks like Bernanke and the FEDs are just as right as they have been on many of the other issues. Just like subprime, foreclosures, etc. the FED will only admit there is a huge problem, after it can no longer be hidden or explained away. It has become their standard process to follow. Wal-Mart CEO Bill Simon expects inflation ~ USA TODAY "U.S. consumers face “serious” inflation in the months ahead for clothing, food and other products, the head of Wal-Mart’s U.S. operations warned Wednesday. The world’s largest retailer is working with suppliers to minimize the effect of cost increases and believes its low-cost business model will position it better than its competitors. Still, inflation is “going to be serious,” Wal-Mart U.S. CEO Bill Simon said during a meeting with USA TODAY’s editorial board. “We’re seeing cost increases starting to come through at a pretty rapid rate.” http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/retail/2011-03-30-wal-mart-ceo-expects-inflation_N.htm?csp=hf

"Amazingly, since 40% of the core CPI is owner's equivalent rent, Bernanke will continue to miss the mark about the true level of the inflation he has created." - From the article above I am very certain Bernanke know exactly how much inflation he has created, is creating and is about to create, here in the US and in many parts of the world. He just has the benefit of using formula's that the FED created that conveniently masks real inflation. This allows the FED to create headline news articles that say 'Inflation is well contained'. Just like all the headlines that said, subprime was contained, unemployment was contained, the foreclosures crisis was contained, etc. In the end none of these items were contained.

Weekly jobless claims dip 6,000 to 388,000 Changes in how data is calculated show slightly elevated levels "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New applications by people seeking unemployment benefits edged lower last week after taking into account revisions in the how the U.S. government calculates the data. The number of people who filed first-time claims for jobless benefits fell by 6,000 to a seasonally-adjusted 388,000 in the week ended March 26, the Labor Department reported Thursday. Yet that decline occurred after claims in the prior week were revised up to 394,000 from an originally reported 382,000." "The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 3,250 to 394,250. The four-week average is considered more accurate a gauge of employment trends because it lessens week-to-week volatility in the data." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-us-jobless-claims-dip-6000-to-388000-2011-03-31 U.S. Feb. factory orders fall 0.1% "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New orders for U.S. factory-manufactured goods fell by 0.1% in February, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. Economists polled by MarketWatch were expecting overall U.S. factory orders to rise by 0.5% in February. Shipments of manufactured goods rose by 0.3%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-feb-factory-orders-fall-01-2011-03-31-103400

Another step in the right direction on the job front. It should be interesting to see what the job growth number is on Friday after taking into accounts job loses. Private sector adds 201,000 jobs in March: ADP "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Private-sector employment climbed 201,000 in March, according to Automatic Data Processing Inc.’s employment report released Wednesday, in a preview of the more closely followed U.S. government data later this week. The gain was roughly in line with economists’ forecasts. In February, private payrolls rose by 208,000, down slightly from the initial estimate of a 217,000 increase." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-adds-201000-jobs-in-march-adp-2011-03-30

The more I read and study the more I realize just how 'rigged' the system is becoming. It's is amazing to watch the fraud and unethical conduct that is growing in the system under the name of 'legalities'. As far as the MSM media goes in the US, its has become more and more centrally controlled and polorized in its view points. I think we are down to like 6 companies owning the majority of the main MSM outlets.

While this could be good for longer term stability of the housing market and our economy, it could really put the current RE industry down for the count. Mortgage Reform Storm Is Brewing "When it rains, it pours, but we're looking at a hail storm in housing finance this week, as government starts the business of taking itself out of the housing business. Tomorrow morning the FDIC will release and vote on proposed risk retention rules for the mortgage market. This includes the "Qualified Residential Mortgage" definition. A QRM would be exempt from risk retention, where the banks have to hold on to 5 percent of the risk when securitizing loans. The QRM will likely require a 20 percent down payment on the loan, as well as other underwriting criteria, and loans sold to Fannie and Freddie (while still in conservatorship), as well as FHA loans, would be exempt. At the same time, Fannie, Freddie and the FHA are making themselves more expensive, as they try to shrink their currently overwhelming market share. Barely a few hours after the vote, House Republicans will introduce a slew of, possibly six, bills designed to reform/shrink/eliminate Fannie and Freddie. Then comes more at a hearing on Thursday on housing finance." http://www.cnbc.com/id/42309859?__source=RSS*blog*&par=RSS

Just as an observation, I know here in Colorado, that attendance at the ski resorts was running above last years numbers until the end of the year, since then the numbers are now treading below last years levels. Snow levels have stayed very steady all season. Disposable income falls as prices jump, data show U.S. PCE inflation up 0.4%, most since July 2008; spending up 0.3% "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Real disposable income declined in February as consumer prices jumped by the largest amount in 2 1/2 years, the Commerce Department reported Monday. Economists said the data show that higher prices for gasoline is starting to take some of the steam out of the economy." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/disposable-income-in-february-falls-as-prices-jump-2011-03-28

Go back through the thread and you can find the same type of info throughout articles from Financial Times, Telegraph, Marketwatch, Bloomberg, etc. Plus, this Rolling Stone article received a lot of props in the media industry for its in depth report.

Just a quick glance at the article. There is plenty more in the articles just in this thread alone. We are not talking about thousands of dollars or even millions of dollars, we are talking about billions and in the case of the derivatives market there is estimates of trillion+. If they didn't think what they were doing was illegal, why hide it, or not disclose the info as regulations require? "- Bank of America, was caught hiding $5.8 billion in bonuses from shareholders as part of its takeover of Merrill Lynch. - Lehman Brothers hid billions in loans from its investors - Goldman Sachs failed to tell clients how it put together the born-to-lose toxic mortgage deals it was selling"

I think the blame and ire is clearly placed in the right direction, when you talk about Wall Street (financial corporations) and government that supported their actions and continue to do so today. They built the house of cards, they magnified the house of cards with all the toxic derivatives, and then asked the taxpayer to bail them out so that they could report record earning for the last year or two. That house of cards has also caused major financial issues for pension funds, states, and other companies who are still in the middle of the economic storm. I post this in the past, but it makes this house of cards and the fraud very easy to see - http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/why-isnt-wall-street-in-jail-20110216?print=true

Household wealth down 23% in 2 years - Fed "NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The average American family's household net worth declined 23% between 2007 and 2009, the Federal Reserve said Thursday. A rare survey of U.S. households, first performed in 2007 but repeated in 2009 in order to gauge the effects of the recession, reveals the median net worth of households fell from $125,000 in 2007 to $96,000 in 2009." "It is widely known that the 2008 financial crisis resulted in the vaporization of trillions of dollars in household wealth. But Federal Reserve officials said Thursday the new report offers a look at exactly how hard the recession hit families, and how they reacted. The numbers paint a stark picture." http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/24/pf/financial_crisis_outcome/index.htm?source=zacks

Where do you think some of the money creation is going? And its clearly adding to our debt issues. As far as politics go, I believe both parties are up to their necks in Wall Street dealings and yes, most American's are too stupid to realize this is the case. So they continue to fight for one party or the other, missing the real issue.

If the greed of Wall Street continue to transfer wealth off of Main Street at it current rate, the long term picture will not be rosy.

We are not quite number one, but we are getting close. Keep printing boys, keep printing. I still believe we have the ability to address these issues, but our current path and greed from Wall Street will only make it worse. US Finances Rank Near Worst in the World: Study "The US ranks near the bottom of developed global economies in terms of financial stability and will stay there unless it addresses its burgeoning debt problems, a new study has found. In the Sovereign Fiscal Responsibility Index, the Comeback America Initiative ranked 34 countries according to their ability to meet their financial challenges, and the US finished 28th, said David Walker, head of the organization and former US comptroller general. "We think it is important for the American people to understand where the United States is as compared to other countries with regard to fiscal responsibility and sustainability," Walker said in a CNBC interview. "Americans are used to rankings and they're used to ranking very high, but frankly in this area we rank very low." http://www.cnbc.com/id/42246531

A new trend seems to be setting in currently, companies are not looking to increase production capacity at this time. As a side note, oil is currently over the $106 mark. Wall Street and the economy will only be able to shrug of these types of oil prices for so long. Durable-goods orders drop 0.9% in February Demand for machinery, big defense items declines "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for U.S. durable goods in February posted the biggest drop in four months, largely because of lower sales of heavy machinery and defense-related products, government data showed Thursday." "Orders have now declined in four of the past five months, suggesting some hesitancy on the part of businesses to continue to expand until they see further strengthening of the U.S. economy." “February’s U.S. durable goods orders report is unequivocally bad,” said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist of Capital Economics." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-durable-goods-orders-fall-in-february-2011-03-24

Sales of new U.S. homes tumble 16.9% to record low WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new single-family homes collapsed in February, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday, as a combination of high unemployment, tumbling prices and a glut of cheaper alternatives brought activity to a near-standstill. New-home sales fell 16.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 250,000 in February, though January’s figures were revised higher to 301,000 from 284,000. Compared to February 2010, sales collapsed by 28%. “The housing market has literally collapsed,” said Tony Sanders, a real estate finance professor at George Mason University. “We’re stuck, it’s not going to revive in the spring and may not in the summer.” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sales-of-new-us-homes-tumble-169-to-record-low-2011-03-23

Absolutely, but with the biggest RE bubble in US history continuing to pop, the pain for the economy is very acute and still is not done. I still believe what I said years ago in these thread, this bust was never about not having a economic bust (they knew it was coming, despite what they said), it was about trying to have an orderly economic bust.

No doubt, there is deflation in housing values. I think the job growth and economic growth is just to minimal right now to really help housing. Even those that have jobs are very hesitant to purchase right now, with concerns about were the economy is headed in the future. I also think more and more people are not sold on the return on investment a house can bring.

More and more home owners are joining the upside down club, which has the potential to increase foreclosure rates in the future. Existing-home sales fall 9.6% in February Prices drop to lowest level since 2002 "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of previously owned homes dropped 9.6% in February and prices fell to their lowest level since 2002, reflecting a continued slump in the U.S. real estate market." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-sink-96-in-february-2011-03-21 Shadow inventory still depressing the housing market: NAR "The “elevated level of shadow inventory of distressed homes” still depresses the housing market, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR)." "According to a recent estimate by Standard and Poor’s, there are 1.7 million homes in the shadow inventory. Moreover, there are about 250,000 foreclosure filings per month, so new houses are continually added to the shadow inventory." http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/117045/20110228/housing-shadow-inventory-real-estate.htm

For those that might be interested, below is a link to the Union Station development. It include webcams. The first phase of the project, the light rail platforms will open this summer. Also opening this year will be the underground regional bus facility. http://denverunionstation.org/ Recent construction pic. Photo from - http://denverinfill.com/ Construction has also begun on a new office tower across the street that will be home to Davita, a fortune 500 company that is relocating to Denver from California. Photo from - http://denverinfill.com/