ragerunner

Coming to a country near you? England, Ireland, Greece, Spain, and now Italy. Italian Students Vent Anger ROME—Italian students demonstrated around the country Tuesday to protest a bill to overhaul universities and slash funding for education—and express broader frustration at the government's handling of a troubled economy. In Milan, students forced their way into Italy's stock exchange, strewing the building with leaflets that read "give us our money back" and unfurling banners that denounced the governing coalition as "shady businessmen, racists and thieves." "The protests are a manifestation of discontent with the economic crisis, and the government's way of handling it," said Fulvio Esposito, rector of the University of Camerino. "The reforms may be the pretext but there's unhappiness at the bottom." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704694004576019460324925904.html?mod=MKTW

Agreed. Down payments, and housing that equals incomes is where the US housing market needs to go and I believe will ultimately end up. All the financial 'tricks' in the world will not stop this, delay yes, stop no. Trillions are being spent to delay it and trillions are being lost despite their best efforts.

Go housing team, go, go, go. Oops, nevermind. I guess rock bottom interest rates are not the magic cure, at least for housing. Housing Shaky as Lenders Tighten "Economists are worried that the housing sector may be heading into another downdraft as mortgage lenders continue to tighten already restrictive lending standards." "Such a scenario seemed less likely earlier this year, when home-buyer tax credits fueled a surge in sales. But sales have plunged in the second half of the year after those credits expired. New and existing home sales were down by more than 25% in October from a year ago." 'Meanwhile, applications for mortgages have hovered near their lowest levels in more than a decade since May, even though mortgage rates have tumbled to their lowest levels in 60 years, with average 30-year, fixed-rate loans bottoming at 4.21% in October." "Banks have become more restrictive in part because Fannie and Freddie are stepping up demands for banks to buy back defaulted loans when they can prove that the mortgage didn't meet underwriting guidelines, an expensive proposition for banks." "Originators are scared to death. We are being intensely cautious because we understand that the franchise could be on the line," says Mr. Walters. He says tightening could continue "for at least a year, maybe longer." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703727804576011872478182318.html

Some positive news, maybe. Note that gas prices rose 4% which made up a lot of this retail sales growth. This is one thing that has turned into a joke for stats. They like including food and gas prices in retail sales numbers (for the bump) but they exclude them from the main CPI data to show inflation is not a problem. This in turns allows the FEDs to continue QE's by saying inflation is well under control, yet in reality main street is seeing a noticable increase in cost for basic items, food, heat, gas. U.S. retail sales in November rise 0.8% Consumer purchases increase for fifth straight month "Retail sales rose 0.8% last month, with growth pegged at 1.2% excluding the volatile automotive sector, the Commerce Department reported. Sales for October and September were also revised higher to suggest an even stronger trend." "What’s holding the economy back, analysts say, are high household debt levels, a weak housing sector and a nearly 10% unemployment rate. More rapid growth is unlikely until businesses expand payrolls, wages rise and households’ net wealth increases." "The biggest increase in sales last month for U.S. retailers occurred at gas stations as fuel prices rose and Americans began to drive more during the holiday season. Gas sales jumped 4% in November, marking the biggest increase in one year." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-climb-08-in-november-2010-12-14 I am not sure the underlining issues of household debt, weak housing sector, unemployment and the need for a noticable growth in wages will be changing much in the near future. This economy is stuck in a huge mud pit and traction is hard to come by. I think in 2011 the best we can hope for is VERY slow growth or a break even from 2010.

Another interesting article on Japan and their issues and how the US maybe following in their not so wise footsteps. U.S. Must "Man Up and Take the Pain" or We'll Become Japan, Katsenelson Says "Just as Japan's policymakers were unable to stave off deflation after their credit bubble burst in 1989, despite their best efforts, conventional wisdom holds that all of Ben Bernanke's "reflation" policies will ultimately be overwhelmed by deleveraging and debt destruction." "Of course, there are important differences between Japan and the U.S. Most importantly, Japan is dealing with a "horrible demographic profile," Katsenelson says, citing its aging population, low birth rates and limited immigration." "With its savings rate falling, Japan's aging citizenry is reaching a tipping point where it will no longer be able to purchase Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at anywhere the same level as in the past 20 years, when over 90% of JGBs were purchased internally." "As a result, Japan will soon have to tap the global markets to fund its borrowing. Katsenelson predicts JGBs will get a cold reception from international buyers because of Japan's demographics and the fact its debt is already almost 200% of GDP, or roughly double America's." http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-must-%22man-up-and-take-the-pain%22-or-we'll-become-japan-katsenelson-says-535701.html?tickers=EWJ,TBT,TLT,UUP,UDN,%5EN225,TIP&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

Bingo and not just T-Bills. The FED discount window has been very kind to the big banks. They keep lending to these banks for about 0% and then these banks turn around and invest in commodities (and other investments), which in turn runs up the cost of commodities (oil, food, etc) to main street. They then make a nice profit, turn back in the money they were lended from the FED discount window, leave with their billions made and start the process over. This allows Main Street to take another one for the Hampton Team.

Looks like the values being lost are increasing year over year, not decreasing. With that said, I have not been a big fan of Zillow or their data over the last several years. I think what does come out of this type of information is that the housing bust is not over yet. U.S. homes to lose $1.7 trillion in value this year: Zillow About $9 trillion has been lost since June 2006, report estimates "CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Homes in the U.S. will have lost $1.7 trillion in value in 2010 by the time the year is through, according to estimates released Thursday by Zillow.com, an online real-estate marketplace. That’s 63% more than the $1 trillion in value that homes lost last year, the report said." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-homes-to-lose-17-trillion-in-value-in-2010-2010-12-09?dist=afterbell

Such a trust worth group. Its has been amazing to watch all the illegal activity these stalwart banks have been doing. There is pages of documented illegal activity that would have brought down most companies. But, these guys just keeping going and almost no one has even received jail time. What makes these types of issues even worse is having the FEDs, the Government and the taxpayer continue to support these organizations financially. The corruption in the system is just amazing. Bank of America Muni Bid Rigging Payments May Be `Tip of the Iceberg' "Bank of America Corp.’s agreement to pay $137 million in restitution for taking part in a nationwide bid-rigging conspiracy for municipal-investment contracts may soon be followed by more settlements to repay the scheme’s victims, the Justice Department’s Antitrust Division head said." “Stay tuned to this channel -- I think you will see a lot more activity in the coming weeks and months,” Christine Varney, the antitrust chief, told reporters yesterday. “We are committed to getting restitution, full restitution, to all the municipalities that were victims of this scheme.” "The government has identified more than a dozen firms, including JPMorgan Chase & Co., UBS AG, and Societe Generale as unindicted co-conspirators in a criminal case brought by the Justice Department against a Los Angeles investment broker." "Prosecutors have said that favored bankers got inside information from brokers who handled bidding for the contracts so they could carve up the market. In some cases, bankers admitted paying kickbacks to brokers." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-08/bank-of-america-deal-in-muni-case-may-be-tip-of-the-iceberg-.html

I don't know the breakdown of how many leave, depart or transfer at the airport, but its total passenger count (50 million+) is 4th highest (it goes back and forth between DIA and Dallas) in the US and was 10th in the world in 2009.

Economists ready to hike GDP view after tax deal "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Wall Street economists were tapping into their spreadsheets Tuesday, ready to ratchet up their economic growth forecasts for next year in light of the tax deal struck by President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans, particularly the surprise one-year reduction in payroll taxes." "The proposal — which Congress still needs to pass in the face of clearly upset Democratic members — would extend all Bush-era income-tax cuts as well as federal unemployment insurance and lower the payroll tax by $120 billion with a 2-percentage-point reduction." "The plan would also extend the 15% capital-gains rate and proposes a 35% estate-tax rate with a $5 million exemption. Emergency unemployment-insurance benefits would be extended through the end of 2011." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/economists-ready-to-ratchet-up-gdp-forecasts-2010-12-07?dist=afterbell

Most of RTD stations are fairly minimual in design, with a standard design package so far (it will be interesting to see if they change up the design package as they build more routes). There are some exceptions. With that said, I am thrilled to have this much mass transit were I live, along with multiple lines currently underconstruction or in the design stage. I will say that I like Union Station's plans and I also like the DIA transit station design as well (both under construction). Those two will definitely bring some unique design and architecture to the system. Here are a few pics of Union Station: Pics of DIA Transit Station:

Another look at what is happening on the other side of the ocean. China's credit bubble on borrowed time as inflation bites The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to take out protection against the risk of a sovereign default by China as one of its top trade trades for 2011. This is a new twist. "Officially, inflation was 4.4pc in October, and may reach 5pc in November, but it is to hard find anybody in China who believes it is that low. Vegetables have risen 20pc in a month." "The economy is entering the ugly quadrant of cycle – stagflation – where credit-pumping leaks into speculation and price spirals, even as growth slows. Citigroup’s Minggao Shen said it now takes a rise of ¥1.84 in the M2 money supply to generate just one yuan of GDP growth, up from ¥1.30 earlier this decade." "Prices are 22 times disposable income in Beijing, and 18 times in Shenzen, compared to eight in Tokyo. The US bubble peaked at 6.4 and has since dropped 4.7. The price-to-rent ratio in China’s eastern cities has risen by over 200pc since 2004." "Albert Edwards from Societe General said the OECD’s leading indicators are signalling a "downturn" for Asia’s big five (Japan, Korea, China, India, and Indonesia). The China indicator composed by Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics has fallen almost as far as it did at the onset of the 2008 crash." "I remain convinced we are witnessing a bubble of epic proportions which will burst – catching investors as unawares as the bursting of the Asian bubbles of the mid-1990s. Ignore these indicators at your peril," he said." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/8182605/Chinas-credit-bubble-on-borrowed-time-as-inflation-bites.html

I think this lesson is starting to sink in, at least on some.

Here is a quick look at the U-6 number. This number more closely reflects how unemployment data was reported before, 1994. While not an exact apple to oranges comparision, the unemployment rate during the great depression ran from about 16% to 25% at its peak. Just trying to show a little comparision, not stating we are in a depression. We are getting close to having 1 in 5 Americans either unemployed or underemployed. I just struggle with the concept that the economic is making a noticable rebound with this kind of data. The 'Real' Jobless Rate: 17.5% Of Workers Are Unemployed "According to the government's broadest measure of unemployment, some 17.5 percent are either without a job entirely or underemployed. The so-called U-6 number is at the highest rate since becoming an official labor statistic in 1994." http://www.cnbc.com/id/34040009/The_Real_Jobless_Rate_17_5_Of_Workers_Are_Unemployed

Maybe the UN report I posted above is onto something? This numbers was not even close to the 'experts' projections. Unemployment Rises to 9.8% as U.S. Adds Just 39,000 Jobs "Payrolls increased 39,000, less than the most pessimistic projection of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, after a revised 172,000 increase the prior month, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The jobless rate rose to 9.8 percent, the highest since April, while hours worked and earnings stagnated." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/u-s-added-39-000-jobs-in-november-unemployment-rose-to-9-8-.html I posted several times (last summer) that it appeared a wheel fell off the recovery wagon sometime back in the early summer. In my business we notice a significant pull back by businesses, and developers in about June/early July and it really has not comeback. Before then businesses and developers where dusting off plans and were working hard to get thing moving again, then it got very quiet. I think this chart shows this event for the job market as well. Since June we have basically run a zero job growth rate. Add in the reality that we need to generate between 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs per month, just to handle the new incoming workforce and you start getting an ugly picture. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/unemployment-hits-98-as-payrolls-add-just-39000-2010-12-03

Pearl Street neighborhood is located on the southside of Denver along a light rail line. The area has a strong transit support system including, rail, bike facilities and bus. Note: I try and not take pics of people, but there where people out and about. Pics were taken late on a weekday afternoon, beginning of December. Transit station Newer TOD next to the station. Another Denver Cycle Station.

UN heightens double dip recession fears "UNITED NATIONS (AFP) – The United Nations warned Wednesday that world growth in the next two years will not be enough to recover jobs lost in the financial crisis and that key countries could be heading for a double-dip recession." "The United States, Japan and major European economies are all at risk of a new recession, said a UN report which predicted the world economy will expand by 3.6 percent this year before falling to 3.1 percent in 2011 and 3.5 percent in 2012." "The recovery of the world economy has started to lose momentum since the middle of 2010, and all indicators point at weaker global economic growth," said the report." http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20101201/bs_afp/financeeconomyworldun

Weekly jobless claims rise 26,000 to 436,000 Continuing claims increase 53,000 to 4.27 million "Despite the increase, jobless claims have totaled less than 450,000 for four straight weeks, the first time that’s happened this year. Most economists believe weekly claims have to move down toward 400,000 or below to indicate a faster pace of hiring, or at least slower layoffs." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/weekly-us-jobless-claims-climb-26000-to-436000-2010-12-02

Thanks for the extra information. I think the small business issues is broken down into to parts. The ones that provide product or support for big business may have faired ok (with the financial approach being taken), but those that are competing with big business clearly have lost more ground faster than normal through this mess. They have been hit with a lack to capital and the deep recession. Big business has most been hit by the deep recession, but found capital through these special government/emergency programs.

The FED, Loans: If possible could you put a link to the article that shows the $3 Trillion from the emergency loan program has been paid back (I have read they have closed most of the programs, but that is not the same as having everything paid back). I would be very interested in that article, since the article I found said $2.3 Trillion is still not been paid back and is on the FED books. If different information is available that shows something very different, then that would chance this discussion. Need for these loans: As far as these loans go, I have continued to state through this thread that it would not have be wise to let the financial system collapse and that many legal actions the FEDs have taken needed to happen. What I have issue with is that we are now 3 years later and from what I have found, the FEDs (taxpayer) are still holding trillions in 'assets' from these institutions (including many overseas banks) that are not worth the $1 for $1 exchange we made for them. Unethical/Illegal conduct: It has become very clear through this mess that many of these 'to big to fail' companies have done some very unethical and illegal things. I have posted mainstream articles showing this is/has been happening and many times with FED support or a blind eye. This is not a way to create a sustainable, long lasting economy in the US. I want to see these practices stopped, and those involved prosecuted, they serve no one but the few elite. The middle class has gotten smaller and poorer through this economic crisis, and the top elite have gotten richer. A lot of this has happened through the transfer of weath that continues today. Housing: I believe housing has a vital roll in creating a stable and strong economy in the US. What I don't agree with is having the FEDs artifically pump the market to try and maintain prices points that are not supported by incomes. Housing is still over inflated, related to income, in most the US. This is not a sustainable practice. I also believe the efforts from the FEDs are also stoking the continuation of suburban sprawl by not allowing those McMansion and other suburban product to adjust to their true cost. Lending for small business: I work daily with the small business community and most of them will tell you their access to cash has really not improved and that most of the FED programs for small businesses was window dressing. The big boys have gained more ground against small businesses through this mess.

Thanks for the info on TARP. I think we all have agreed that TARP has not been the problem. The problem is the 'emergency loans' that had bad paper as their asset and the huge amount of debt fannie and freddie have/are taking on with bad loans from the banks. These two items make TARP look small.

Here is a little more on just how much debt the FEDs (taxpayer) has taken on. What the banks gave us in return was 'paper' that was not even close to being worth a $1 for a $1. TARP was a drop in the bucket. Fed to Release Emergency Lending Details, Sanders Says "The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected Wednesday to release data on financial institutions and foreign central banks to which it made more than $2 trillion in emergency loans during the financial crisis, according to a U.S. senator who has long been pushing the Fed to be more transparent in its actions." http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/30/fed-to-release-details-on-lending-programs-wednesday/ As far as payback for these 'loans' go. No such luck and I am sure we will not see most of this money paid back any time soon, if ever. Payback is going to be all that worthless or devalued 'paper' (assets) they gave as collatoral for the loans. Fed Details Emergency Lending "While some of the programs have been wound down as the health of financial markets improved, the Fed still holds most of the assets it took on during the crisis. As of Nov. 17, the Fed had $2.3 trillion in assets." http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/01/fed-to-detail-emergency-lending/ If TARP and these emergency financial loans weren't enought (about $3 Trillion) the taxpayer has also taken on Billions+ more in debt as we increase our amount of bad housing loans from the banks through Fannie and Freddie and these two continue to bleed by the billions. I think you can safely say the taxpayer of the US has taken on $3.5 to $4 Trillion in debt through this mess. Maybe even higher and there is no way a lot of this will ever pay itself back. The transfer of wealth and debt over the last few years is STUNNING. I think this is terribly misleading. Maybe this is the extreme-right version. Here's a version for the rest of us. "The disclosure, which was mandated by the Dodd-Frank financial overhaul law signed by President Obama in July, offers details about the $3 trillion in liquidity that the Fed provided to investment banks, foreign central banks and a number of other institutions." ". . .benefited from a program that supported the market for commercial paper — the short-term i.o.u.’s that corporations rely upon to make payroll and pay their suppliers. During the worst moments of the crisis, in the fall of 2008, even creditworthy corporate borrowers found this source of financing had dried up, and had to turn to the Fed for help." "The Fed, which took months to compile the data and release it in electronic form by the Dec. 1 deadline, emphasized that most of the programs closed earlier this year and that taxpayers did not incur losses." And it goes on to explain how terrible things truly were. But I'm sure will fall on deaf ears for a certain segment of the (backwards)population. Looking forward to the "End the Fed" chants http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/02/business/economy/02fed.html?_r=1&hpw So why is the FED still holding most of the assets it took on during the crisis? ($2.3 trillion) If the assets are good and worth a $1 for a $1, then why have the financial institutions not taken back their assets, since the emergency is over? Or, maybe between November 17th and November 30th the FED received $2.3 trillion? If not then only $700,000 billion has been returned with no losses, I wonder what it keeping the financial institution from collecting the rest of their $2.3 trillion in valuables?

Here is a little more on just how much debt the FEDs (taxpayer) has taken on. What the banks gave us in return was 'paper' that was not even close to being worth a $1 for a $1. TARP was a drop in the bucket. Fed to Release Emergency Lending Details, Sanders Says "The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected Wednesday to release data on financial institutions and foreign central banks to which it made more than $2 trillion in emergency loans during the financial crisis, according to a U.S. senator who has long been pushing the Fed to be more transparent in its actions." http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/11/30/fed-to-release-details-on-lending-programs-wednesday/ As far as payback for these 'loans' go. No such luck and I am sure we will not see most of this money paid back any time soon, if ever. Payback is going to be all that worthless or devalued 'paper' (assets) they gave as collatoral for the loans. Fed Details Emergency Lending "While some of the programs have been wound down as the health of financial markets improved, the Fed still holds most of the assets it took on during the crisis. As of Nov. 17, the Fed had $2.3 trillion in assets." http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/12/01/fed-to-detail-emergency-lending/ If TARP and these emergency financial loans weren't enought (about $3 Trillion) the taxpayer has also taken on Billions+ more in debt as we increase our amount of bad housing loans from the banks through Fannie and Freddie and these two continue to bleed by the billions. I think you can safely say the taxpayer of the US has taken on $3.5 to $4 Trillion in debt through this mess. Maybe even higher and there is no way a lot of this will ever pay itself back. The transfer of wealth and debt over the last few years is STUNNING.

Yes. This is clearly not some great number, but its a lot better than last years November ADP numbers (-169,000). One item that has been lost in the headlines and may end up being a 'bell weather' for the start of 2011 was: "Job cuts on the horizon: Employers announced plans to reduce payrolls by 48,711 jobs last month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a Chicago-based outplacement firm (see correction below). The figure was up 28% from October, but down 3.3% compared with November 2009." http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Private-sector-employment-cnnm-2875758933.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=9&asset=&ccode=

I have seen data stating that it takes about 150,000 to 200,000 in employment growth for the economy to just break even each month. Definitely a step in the right direction, double that number and we might actually start making a small dent in the overall employment needs. Private-sector employment up 93,000: ADP November’s payroll increase represents largest gain in three years "While November’s report shows an acceleration in employment, larger gains would be needed to lower the unemployment rate of 9.6%, according to Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, which computes that data using anonymous payroll data collected by ADP." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/private-sector-employment-up-93000-adp-2010-12-01