ragerunner

Already post this and noted that prices are up YoY by 5.5%. Despite low levels of sales for new homes and the lack of rise in consumer income. Which brings back the conversation about the FEDs and their efforts, despite low demand still, to pump up housing and home prices with low interest rates and the purchase of mortgage backed securities.

Are you now posting job creation overseas? You post job layoffs and other unrelated world news in this thread... I believe most of my job layoff posting are for the US. I can tell you really don't want to have a valid conversation about the economy. Because if you did, you would recognizing that the EU and Japan (posts) are in recessions and other countries are following have a very direct impact on the US and its economy. Or that the Libor rigging had a major impact on consumers and appears to include US banks as well. Your one line comments don't support an economic point of view or issue. You have also avoided explaining your one liners.

Are you now posting job creation overseas?

Consumer confidence drops in January "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Dropping past analysts’ expectations, a gauge of consumer confidence fell this month to its lowest level in more than a year, led by gloomier expectations and views of the present situation, according to data released Tuesday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-drops-in-january-2013-01-29-101032528?dist=lcountdown Note: YoY prices are up about 5.5% Home prices decline in November, Case-Shiller says http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-prices-decline-in-november-case-shiller-says-2013-01-29 Once again, this may turn out to be one of the biggest 'thefts' in world history. If you had a mortgage, saving account, etc. it affected you financially. I am amazed more citizens are not outraged by the level of manipulation and the amount of coordination by the banks, that took place to pull this off. Maybe main street just can't process how big this really is. Of course if the MSM would shine a big light on this maybe more people would take note. Libor Lies Revealed in Rigging of $300 Trillion Benchmark "Details are only now revealing just how far-reaching the scam was." “Pretty much anything you could do to increase the revenue of your organization appeared legitimate,” says Martin Taylor, chief executive officer of London-based Barclays Plc from 1994 to 1998. “Here was the market doing something blatantly dishonest. I never imagined that people in the financial markets were saints, but you expect some moral standards.” Where Libor is set each day affects what families pay on their mortgages, the interest on savings accounts and returns on corporate bonds. Now, banks are facing a reckoning, as prosecutors make arrests, regulators impose fines and lawyers around the world file lawsuits claiming the manipulation pushed homeowners into poverty and deprived brokerage firms of profits." http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/libor-lies-revealed-in-rigging-of-300-trillion-benchmark.html

These comments might take some damage control?!! He might consider himself luck if they just remove he from his position. This type of truth telling is a big no no. France 'totally bankrupt', says labour minister Michel Sapin "France's labour minister sent the country into a state of shock on Monday after he described the nation as “totally bankrupt”. “There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,” Mr Sapin said. “That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9832845/France-totally-bankrupt-says-labour-minister-Michel-Sapin.html Caterpillar is generally consider one of the guages on were the economy is headed. Of course now days what use to be used as a measuring tool is of little value. Its has become more about how much paper the FEDs will suck up and when will the next QE arrive. UPDATE 4-Caterpillar sets cautious tone for year after low profit "Jan 28 (Reuters) - Caterpillar Inc, the world's largest maker of construction equipment, posted a 55 percent drop in quarterly profit on Monday and set a cautious tone for the year, citing weak demand and oversupply." http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/28/caterpillar-results-idUSL1N0AX1FW20130128 Like that is going to happen. China tells U.S. to slow money printing presses "(Reuters) - A senior Chinese official said on Friday that the United States should cut back on printing money to stimulate its economy if the world is to have confidence in the dollar." http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/01/25/us-davos-currencies-idUSBRE90O10620130125

:? :? :? :? Well if that is the case, we should run their 'credit card' for every financial need we have. Matter of fact, we should transfer some of the other debt onto their balance sheet. We could be debt free in no time and all of our debt problems would be solved. :clap: And yes, they are the ones holding interest rates low and buying almost all of the mortgage back securities (debt). To the tune of 90% this year. Which is just over $1 Trillion dollars in 2013. To say these type of intervention has no impacts on reality (RE markets) is :-o.

Clearly the FEDs are putting most of their chips on the housing market being strong enough to keep the US economy from entering a technical recession this year. They are even going to bet 1 trillion dollars to keep interest rates low and buy mortgage backed securities to make this happen. It shows you just how much our economy has come to rely on home building for economic growth. Question: How much debt should the FEDs take on to increase housing activity and pump up prices? Clefan98, I would still like to hear your thoughts on how much debt the FEDs should take on to boost the private sector housing market? I really am interested.

Private sector or public sector, it doesn't change that these people are becoming unemployed.

Keep posting. Since January 1, 2013 I have posted about 75,000 job cuts annoucements. You have a ways to go. :wink:

Here is an interesting article about these state job annoucements. This is from Indiana, but I know that Michigan and Ohio and many other states have a very similar situtation. That is why they are careful to state these are 'planned' expansion or investments. Reality Check: Indiana job numbers don't add up "Since its creation, IEDC boasts more than 100,000 new jobs on its success list, and when the agency and the governor talk about job numbers, the "Indiana Economic Successes" list is what they are talking about. But 13 Investigates discovered many of the state's "economic successes" aren't really successes at all. They are empty fields and deserted factories where the state claims there are supposed to be thousands of jobs." "In fact, as many as 40% of statewide jobs listed as so-called economic successes have not happened -- and most of them never will -- according to an analysis by Eyewitness News." "Not every deal we announce is going to work out exactly as we plan it to work out. That's just the reality," explained Mitch Roob, who is Indiana's Secretary of Commerce and IEDC director. "We are very proud of our record here in the state of Indiana in terms of helping companies to create jobs." WTHR first asked Roob about IEDC's statistics and "Indiana Economic Successes" list in November. "I don't know that we call it ‘success' … what we call it is a ‘job commitment,'" he explained." http://www.wthr.com/global/story.asp?s=12066021

This takes us back to the conversation about California. Its great to see job growth, but they have a long ways to go just to get back to break even (2006 levels). Matter of fact, Michigan lost 11,000 jobs - from major employers - just in December of 2012, with a total gain of 13,000 for the year (much better than in the past decade but saw declines 6 out of the last 8 months of the year). Its clearly an uphill battle for many states. Of course the state lost about 279,000 jobs between 2007-2010. So at this rate the state might regain those lost jobs in about 20+ years. The other thing to note in all of these annoucements are that these jobs are 'planned' to be created over X amount of years (time). When you see most job losses being posted it is about to happen or already has. There is a big difference between a long term 'plan' verses what is happening almost over night. State's unemployment rate stays at 8.9% in December "Meanwhile, a survey of major employers showed that major companies shed 11,000 jobs in December. The business and professional services sector lost 6,000 jobs and retail trade lost 3,000. Manufacturers added 2,000 jobs during the month." "Despite those monthly losses, Michigan's major employers added 13,000 jobs overall during 2012, the state survey showed." http://www.freep.com/article/20130117/BUSINESS06/301170267/State-s-unemployment-rate-stays-at-8-9-in-December

Glad to see the jobs (works out to about 9 employees per store). Interesting that the growth in the retail industry seems to be towards the 'dollar general' end of things. I guess it shows where demand is. I wonder how many dollar general stores can fit into a vacant, Borders, Barnes and Nobles, Best Buy footprint? Here are a couple of articles that talk about what the growth in these types of stores show about the economy. Dollar Stores, Growth For Another Decade (DG, DLTR, FDO, WMT, SHLD, NDN) "The trade-down economy and the grab-up approach from dollar stores almost secures the sector’s growth ahead as a boost for the lower-end retailers." Read more: Dollar Stores, Growth For Another Decade (DG, DLTR, FDO, WMT, SHLD, NDN) - 24/7 Wall St. http://247wallst.com/2010/11/03/dollar-stores-growth-for-another-decade-dg-dltr-fdo-wmt-shld-ndn/#ixzz2JILKaAia The two sides of Dollar General's post-recession growth "FORTUNE -- Dollar General was one of the few retail bright spots during the recession. Its success was a direct barometer of the economy: The worse Americans felt about their finances, the more they sought out the retailer's low-priced goods." http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/06/news/companies/dollar_general_economy.fortune/index.htm

Orders for U.S. durable goods jump 4.6% Bookings for Boeing lead, but U.S. business investment weakens "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for big-ticket items made in the U.S. soared 4.6% in December, fanned by a big batch of bookings for military and commercial aircraft." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/orders-for-long-lasting-goods-jump-46-2013-01-28 Have they ever wonder if the rise in prices are already hurting sales? Pending home sales fall in December "December saw pending-home-sales declines of 8.2% in the West, 5.4% in the Northeast and 4.5% in the South. There was a gain of 0.9% in the Midwest." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pending-home-sales-fall-in-december-2013-01-28 Looks like Australia is starting to join a very unpopular party. Lets see who is already at the recession table, Japan, almost all of Europe, and the US is currently declining and China and India are seeing declines as well. The FEDs better really pump our housing market this year, because international demand is not going to keep our GDP moving forward. Land Down Under faces Europe-style downturn Commentary: Australia’s commodities boom nears a bitter end "But Australia’s economic outlook is deteriorating. The commodity boom, predicted to go on forever, is slowing sharply." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/land-down-under-faces-europe-style-downturn-2013-01-27 And when Fannie's balance sheet shows these loses who is going to fill the hole again, taxpayers. It has been amazing to watch how much money and changes to rules have been done to keep the housing market from readjusting to a more historic norm. Fannie Adds Bailout For Underwater Walkaways: Mortgages "Non-delinquent borrowers with illness, job changes or other reasons they need to move will become eligible in March to apply for a so-called deed-in-lieu transaction that erases the shortfall between a property’s value and the size of its mortgage. It follows a change in November that lets on-time borrowers sell properties for less than they owe, known as short sales, wiping out the remaining mortgage debt. Normally, the lenders could pursue people to recoup their losses." "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have drawn almost $190 billion in taxpayer aid since they were taken into conservatorship in September of 2008 when investments in risky loans pushed them to the brink of insolvency. They’ve paid a combined $50 billion in dividends back to the U.S. Treasury. The companies own or guarantee $5.2 trillion of mortgages, more than half the outstanding U.S. home loans. “The government is saying you can just turn in your home and we’re not going to come after you for the money you still owe,” said Peter Schiff, chief executive officer of Connecticut-based brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital. “Some of these are going to be people who might otherwise have stayed in their homes and kept making payments.” http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-28/fannie-adds-bailout-for-underwaters-walkaways-mortgages.html Through The Wire: Reuters Layoffs Last week was a bleak one at Thomson Reuters, the financial news and wire service giant. According to sources, as many as 3,000 people were let go, out of approximately 50,000 employees around the globe. Most of the layoffs came from the financial sector—the sales, training and analysts’ divisions—but some were on the editorial side. http://observer.com/2013/01/through-the-wire-reuters-layoffs/ This will add to our already over built retail RE. Up to a third of Barnes & Noble stores to close, report says http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-up-barnes-noble-stores-close-20130128,0,5751045.story VMware to cut 900 jobs http://www.marketwatch.com/story/vmware-to-cut-900-jobs-2013-01-28?link=MW_home_latest_news

Clearly the FEDs are putting most of their chips on the housing market being strong enough to keep the US economy from entering a technical recession this year. They are even going to bet 1 trillion dollars to keep interest rates low and buy mortgage backed securities to make this happen. It shows you just how much our economy has come to rely on home building for economic growth. Question: How much debt should the FEDs take on to increase housing activity and pump up prices?

I guess it depends on your definition of desirable areas. Here in Denver its seems to be in the suburbs as well as the core urban neighborhoods. Of course many of the core urban neighborhoods its about rents not sale prices. In the suburbs it more about sales and not rental prices. (both rent and sale prices are rising)

The bubble seems to be in prices not in actual sales and in investors starting to buy in large quanities. I know here in Denver many areas have seen home prices rebound over the last year by about 10%. I think that is really the point. New home sales are still near all time lows yet prices are rising noticably. Why? Supply and Demand issue? Because in a historic context prices should not be rising at all. Probably should still be falling.

All that happy talk of the EU recovery just keeps getting hit with reality. UK heads for triple dip as GDP contracts 0.3pc "The UK economy shrank by 0.3pc in the final three months of last year, raising the prospect of a triple dip recession, as Britain’s manufacturers suffered their worst year since the financial crisis." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9826019/UK-heads-for-triple-dip-as-GDP-contracts-0.3pc.html Britain is experiencing 'worse slump than during Great Depression' "Britain's recent economic performance is the worst since records began in the pre-Victorian era, experts said today, apart from the two immediate post-war slumps. Ministers today admitted Britain is facing "very, very grave difficulties" after figures showed the economy did not grow at all in 2012." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/9826857/Britain-is-experiencing-worse-slump-than-during-Great-Depression.html Hasbro expects to cut about 550 jobs http://www.valleybreeze.com/2013/01/25/pawtucket/hasbro-expects-to-cut-about-550-jobs 3M to Cut 300 Jobs in Restructuring Move "3M is eliminating 300 jobs as it merges its securities systems division with its traffic safety systems division." http://tcbmag.com/News/Recent-News/2013/January/3M-to-Cut-300-Jobs-in-Restructuring-Move United Airlines to cut 600 jobs http://www.bellinghamherald.com/2013/01/24/2850956/united-airlines-to-cut-600-jobs.html Pentagon laying off 46,000 staff "The US defence department says it has begun laying off most of its 46,000 temporary employees, as automatic defence budget cuts loom in March." http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-21205323

A look at the 'rebound' of new home sales. It hard to believe that in some markets new home prices are nearing peak bubble prices again with such low volume taking place. Something tells me there is a good chance some of these buyers today will be underwater in a few years. Kind of amazing to see what we have gotten for trillions that have been used to spur low interest rates, and back home loans. Source: St. Louis Fed http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/HSN1FNSA

The next housing bubble is starting to get its legs under it. What a mess. As prices rise, rental home investors seek new markets "Rapid price increases are forcing real estate investors to shift their focus, and money, to new markets as they scramble to buy more homes to rent." http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/01/21/rental-housing-investors/1851187/ Manufacturers cutting white-collar jobs now, too "NEW YORK — Manufacturers have been using technology to cut blue-collar jobs for years. Now, they're targeting their white-collar workers, too." http://www.wral.com/manufacturers-cutting-white-collar-jobs-now-too/12018324/

The Philly index is dropping, the NY index is dropping and now the Richmond and KC indexes go negative as well. Richmond Fed business index falls in January "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Richmond Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell in January to negative 12 from 5 in December, the bank said Tuesday. The decline is another sign of weak conditions in the manufacturing sector." http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013-01-22/economy/36472550_1_business-index-west-virginia-south-carolina Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Unexpectedly Falls To -2 Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/kansas-city-fed-january-2013-1#ixzz2Ivn3KfMT

I still don't believe the S&P gives you an accurate reflection of the economic health of Main Street. That is why I hardly ever post about the stock market. It is becoming more and more disconnected to what is actually happening to Main Street. Its also probably another big bubble. We have become a country that just blows one big bubble after another.

From the article link above. "The decline may reflect the government's difficulty adjusting its numbers to account for layoffs after the holiday shopping season. Layoffs spike in the second week of January and then plummet. The department seeks to adjust for those seasonal trends, but the figures can still be volatile." They also point out this issue that affected the numbers. "The number of applications was estimated for California, Virginia and Hawaii because of the holiday-shortened week, the Labor Department spokesman also said." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/jobless-claims-in-u-s-decrease-prolonging-seasonal-swings.html

The stock market is not a very good gauge to use to determine the health of our economy. Its more a gauge about profit margins that frequently come at the expense of main street (job cuts). The DOW is about to break its all time record. Does anyone really believe the actual US or world economy is doing better than any other time in history? Or even better than back in 2006 during the peak of the 'boom'?

Just a few weeks ago EU leaders said the worst was behind them. I guess it was just more happy talk. Central bank says Spanish economy contracted 0.6 pct in fourth quarter, deepening recession http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/central-bank-says-spanish-economy-contracted-06-pct-in-fourth-quarter-deepening-recession/2013/01/23/661c5a0c-6569-11e2-889b-f23c246aa446_story.html Italy’s Top Bank Lobbyist Resigns After Derivatives Disclosures "Monte Paschi said on Jan. 17 it will review its accounts after Bloomberg News first reported that the lender engaged in a derivative with Deutsche Bank AG in 2008 that obscured losses before the Siena-based bank sought a government bailout. The Italian lender, which was bailed out in 2009, is seeking 500 million euros more from taxpayers, bringing the total cost of its rescue to 3.9 billion euros." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-22/italy-s-top-bank-lobbyist-resigns-after-derivatives-disclosures.html IMF Cuts Forecast on Second Year of Europe Contraction "The International Monetary Fund cut its global growth forecasts and now projects a second year of contraction in the euro region as progress in battling Europe’s debt crisis fails to produce an economic recovery." http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-01-23/imf-cuts-global-forecasts-on-second-year-of-europe-contraction Dish Network to close 300 Blockbuster stores, lay off 3,000 workers http://www.bizjournals.com/washington/morning_call/2013/01/dish-network-to-close-300-blockbuster.html Another piece of the tinfoil hat falls off. They would never use insider knowledge while doing these 'undetected' trades? Gazing into 'dark pools,' the tool that enables anonymous insider trading "While federal authorities aggressively pursue individual insider stock trading cases – including an ongoing investigation of Wall Street titan Steven A. Cohen’s SAC Capital hedge fund – financial regulators remain years away from being able to peer into “dark pools,” the high-tech mechanism that insiders use to conduct secret, advantageous transactions." "The complaint also offered a look at how “dark pools” allowed Cohen's firm to trade millions of shares and hundreds of millions of dollars of stock virtually undetected." "The secret trades are perfectly legal. Only if they are coupled with inside information and used to give buyers or sellers an improper advantage do they cross the line." "Investors who have filed a class-action lawsuit against Cohen and SAC Capital say that’s exactly what happened with the trades in the Elan pharmaceutical company initiated by Martoma. They allege that they were at a distinct disadvantage as SAC profited from insider knowledge." http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/23/16633004-gazing-into-dark-pools-the-tool-that-enables-anonymous-insider-trading?lite

Consumer sentiment declines in January Gauge comes up well short of economists’ view for an increase "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Led by gloomier views on current conditions, a gauge of consumer sentiment declined in January, hitting the lowest level since December 2011, according to a Friday report from the University of Michigan-Thomson Reuters." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-declines-in-january-2013-01-18 Wow, this is shocking news! Greece needs more European money to help with debts, says IMF "Greece will need additional help from its European partners as soon as next year to bring its huge debt under control, a senior IMF official has said." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9811748/Greece-needs-more-European-money-to-help-with-debts-says-IMF.html