ragerunner

Look for forclosure numbers to go into outerspace as the year progresses. Banks are finally moving on homes that should have already been forclosed on and that inventory is massive. U.S. Home Seizures Reach Record as Recovery Delayed "(Bloomberg) — U.S. home foreclosures climbed to a record in April, a sign that government mortgage relief efforts have yet to turn the tide of property seizures, according to a report by RealtyTrac Inc." "Bank repossessions rose to 92,432 in April, up 45 percent from a year earlier, Irvine, California-based RealtyTrac said today in a statement. Foreclosure filings, including default and auction notices, fell 2 percent to 333,837. One out of every 387 households received a filing." http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-05-13/u-s-home-seizures-reach-record-as-recovery-delayed-update1-.html I know I keep say this, but I really believe the international economic issues are/will put a lot of pressure on any real economic recovery by the US. It is a global economy and we don't live in a bubble. Sarkozy Threatened to Quit Euro to Prod Merkel, El Pais Says "May 14 (Bloomberg) -- French President Nicolas Sarkozy threatened to pull out of the euro unless German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed to back the European Union bailout plan at a summit last week in Brussels, El Pais newspaper said." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601085&sid=aTua8DZFUreE

First taxpayers provided free money to banks, then we provided $8,000 for home purchases, next came billions to bailout other countries and now we may be paying peoples mortgages. This type of manipulation of the housing market has got to stop. Moral hazard and risk are being eroded and in the end will only entice more people to stop paying their mortgages. All these efforts just keep kicking the can down the road and making the can bigger and bigger. One day we may find the can to big to kick. States: Let taxpayers cover your mortgage "NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Unemployed? Owe more on your mortgage than your home is worth? Your state might one day pay your mortgage." "Giving people free money to cover their home loans is just one of the radical ways that four states -- Florida, Michigan, California and Arizona -- plan to use $1.4 billion the Obama administration is sending their way to help the unemployed and underwater avoid foreclosure." http://money.cnn.com/2010/05/12/news/economy/taxpayer_mortgages/

As more homeowners go under water, more and more are/will default. It should be interesting to watch the numbers this summer and fall to see if the ending of the tax credit causes housing to take a stepper decline again. Trend of US Mortgages ‘Underwater’ Grows: Report ~ CNBC "A growing percentage of U.S. homeowners were saddled with "underwater mortgages" in the first quarter, accounting for almost one in four homes in a trend that poses a serious threat to the housing market's recovery, real estate website Zillow.com said on Monday." "U.S. home values in the first quarter were down 3.8 percent year-over-year and down 1 percent quarter-over-quarter, to $183,700, according to the Zillow Home Value Index." "It was the 13th consecutive quarter of year-over-year declines." http://www.cnbc.com/id/37060248

FINALLY. I don't know if this will change the rules and accountability in the future, but at least the information is going public. If we really want to ensure that we don't have a repeat of the last few years, better oversite and regulations need to be enforced. Crisis Panel to Probe Window-Dressing at Banks "It’s an open secret on Wall Street that many big banks routinely — and legally — fudge their quarterly books." "The techniques in question, which are normally relegated to the shadows of finance, are expected to be thrust into a public spotlight on Wednesday by the federal committee that is investigating the causes of the financial crisis. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission is expected to focus most sharply on the way banks slim down their balance sheets before reporting their results and on loans they receive from entities like special-purpose vehicles and hedge funds, which are allowed to operate with little public disclosure." "What is perhaps surprising is that many of the practices that enabled investment banks like Lehman Brothers to mask their deteriorating finances during the crisis are still wide open — and still being employed by other banks." http://www.cnbc.com/id/36961758

The headwinds for our economic recover are still very stiff. International economic issues are growing along with our own challenges. Greek strikers hit Athens streets over austerity plan "Greek public sector workers have stormed the Acropolis and scuffled with riot police after launching a 48-hour strike against austerity measures." "Their action comes ahead of a nationwide general strike on Wednesday." "The measures include wage freezes, pension cuts and tax rises." BBC News - Greek strikers hit Athens streets over austerity plan Volcker Says U.S. Unemployment Will Be ‘Too High for Too Long’ "May 4 (Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker said the U.S. economy faces a “long slog” as the nation struggles to reduce the jobless rate from close to a 26- year high." “I am afraid the level of unemployment will be too high for too long,” Volcker said in the prepared text of a speech yesterday in St. Louis. “My characterization of the outlook is a long slog.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aWqCX7U0VxSo

I am noticing an uptick in my job field (building permits, home construction, etc). The real question in my mind is how much of this is stimulus related and how much will be sustainable once the stimulus injection runs its course?

Is main street starting to wake up? If it does wall street may find a few of them will be walking the plank in the future. Protesters descend on Wall Street, New York City banks New York (CNN) -- Protesters rallied in downtown New York City Thursday to voice their anger over what they perceive as the roles Wall Street and big banks played in America's economic crisis. The AFL-CIO organized the rally, and union President Richard Trumka addressed the crowd, saying, "How long will we allow the spirit of greed to continue to drive us into economic holes?" http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/04/29/banks.protests/ External economic forces are going to continue to put a lot of pressure on our economy and any effort to see a real rebound. I still think the downward pressure is going to show more acceleration later this year. Volatility Jumps as European Sovereign Debt Crisis Infects Asia "April 30 (Bloomberg) -- Volatility indexes show Europe’s fiscal crisis is jolting markets in Asia’s largest economies, with gauges in China and India jumping as much as in the U.K." “When markets react to a big spike in stress they look at simple indicators like a country’s debt to gross domestic product,” Sebastien Barbe, head of emerging-market research for Credit Agricole CIB, said in a phone interview from Hong Kong. “India doesn’t have any dollar debt, but it does have huge local-currency debt.” http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-29/volatility-jumps-as-european-sovereign-debt-crisis-infects-asia.html Spanish unemployment tops 20% in first quarter "On Friday, data that showed Spain's jobless figure topped 20% in the first quarter of 2010 -- 20.5% to be exact -- served to highlight the tough job the government here is facing in trying to get its finances under control and light a fire under the economy. It marks the worst unemployment rate since 1997." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/spains-jobless-level-tops-20-2010-04-30 Warning Signal on U.K. Debt? Value of Default Protection Has Doubled in 2010 and Is Outpacing Spain "As investors scramble to protect themselves from the next credit flare-up in Europe, their worries are spreading to the U.K." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703572504575214642413694462.html?mod=rss_whats_news_us

These types of numbers with the tax credit. If the credit or another assistance program is not enacted at the end of the month we are going to see home sales and prices take another dump going into summer and pick up moment on the downside next fall/winter. Prices and supply/demand still have a ways to go before they are back in balance with reality. Home Prices Fall in February; Further Declines Possible "The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite price index fell 0.9 percent on an unadjusted basis in February, worse than a 0.3 percent decline estimated in a Reuters survey. Seasonally adjusted, prices declined by 0.1 percent, as expected, after a string of eight straight monthly increases." http://www.cnbc.com/id/36798965

Probe Turns to Buffett Deal Government Suspects Goldman Director Told Galleon of Berkshire's 2008 Investment "A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. director tipped off a hedge-fund billionaire about a $5 billion investment in Goldman by Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. before a public announcement of the deal at the height of the 2008 financial crisis, a person close to the situation says." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703876404575200423282391104.html :-D :lol: :wave:

We can only hope.

We shall see. None of the big boys are currently being charged, just a vice president. Sacrificial lamb to appease the masses? But, maybe its a start. Goldman charged with fraud over Paulson CDO trade Shares of investment bank drop 10% after SEC files lawsuit "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission on Friday charged Goldman Sachs & Co. and one of its vice presidents for defrauding investors by misstating and omitting key facts about a financial product related to subprime mortgages." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-charged-with-fraud-over-paulson-cdo-trade-2010-04-16

Greek aid in doubt as German professors prepare court challenge "A quartet of German professors is to preparing to challenge the EU-IMF rescue for Greece at Germany's constitutional court as soon as the mechanism is activated, claiming that it violates the 'no-bail-out' clause of the EU Treaties." "The legal challenge has far-reaching implications. It threatens to cloud the issue for weeks or months and may ultimately force Berlin to withdraw support, raising the risk of wider systemic crisis in Southern Europe." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/financialcrisis/7591027/Greek-aid-in-doubt-as-German-professors-prepare-court-challenge.html

Main Street will not see a jobless economic recovery. Banks on Wall Street may have a different outcome.

a lot of people are stuck. a lot of people are also broke. Just wanting for the bank to finally kick them out.

On April 22nd Denver will unveil the first citywide bike share program in the US. The program will start with 50 bike share stations throughout the city. Along with mass transit the Denver area has been investing significantly in bike lanes and multi-modal paths that connect the metro region for bicyclists. Here a couple of links to the program. http://www.denverbikesharing.org/ http://www.bikedenver.org/ (Source: http://www.denverbikesharing.org/)

The banks have been very slow to complete the foreclosure process and are even delaying the foreclosure proceedings. There is a lot of shadow inventory.

The shadow inventory is the large amount of bank owned foreclosures that they have yet to put on the market for sale. The banks have been slowly putting their 'supply' on the market in an effort not to overwhelm the market.

I think they are getting closer. Maybe we will go through waves. Spend 2 years getting free money, then spend a year foreclosing. Rinse and repeat. Whatever the plan is prices are about to take another nice drop.

2 big banks forecast major rise in foreclosures in 2010 (Update 1) By Ryan Frank, The Oregonian April 09, 2010, 6:05AM HousingWire reports: "Bank of America, which currently forecloses on 7,500 homes every month will see that number rise to 45,000 by December 2010 as one senior executive pointed out at a recent trade show. However, a spokesman for BofA told HousingWire, he could not confirm the numbers and they do not reflect a public position of the bank. JPMorgan Chase ,,, expects the amount of real estate owned (REO) properties in its portfolio to reach between 33,000 to 45,000 in Q410. By comparison, in Q409, REO inventories were at 23,100." http://blog.oregonlive.com/frontporch/2010/04/2_big_banks_forecast_major_ris.html

Old or new, the inventory of homes is still there and is causing an increase in blight condition, a drain on limited resources, increases the foreclosure rate and puts downward pressure on home values. I am very sure we will make it through this. What the US and other nations look like after it's over is what is up for debate.

I think its becoming pretty clear the housing market is about to take a double dip. All this is happening even with the taxpayer home buying credit. Wait until that expires, things are going to get pretty nasty again, for the housing market. Places like Cincy with an almost 50% increase in homes for sale are going to see some significant pressure on home prices and an increase in foreclosures. Supply and Demand continue to be way out of order. America's Worst-Selling Housing Markets 2010 Home prices have dropped, and inventory and sale prices are up in these big cities. "Milwaukee, Wis., is home to Miller Brewing, one of the country's biggest beer makers. That's good news for home-sellers there: They probably need a drink more than ever. Milwaukee is the big city with the worst-selling housing market in America." "Many of America's major cities are saddled with thousands of unsold homes. Speculative buyers spurred overbuilding in markets like San Diego, Atlanta and Los Angeles during the housing boom, and those homes were left to languish once the bubble burst. In other cities that have been struggling economically for years, like Cincinnati and Cleveland, more and more lost jobs mean demand can't keep up with supply." "Former manufacturing hubs in the Midwest have it rough as well. High unemployment combined with the nationwide financial crisis has left fewer families in a position to buy homes, causing real estate markets to stagnate. Cincinnati, for example, has seen the biggest year-over-year inventory increase of all the cities we measured, at 48%. Inventory in St. Louis, Mo., rose by 36%, and similar problems afflict Cleveland and Milwaukee." http://realestate.yahoo.com/promo/americas-worst-selling-housing-markets-2010

Great thread and great photos. Thanks.

You know, a few years ago a lot of this stuff would be considered tinfoil hat stuff. Now all the corruption and manipulation is just an accepted 'evil' to save the world's economy. Metal$ are in the pits Trader blows whistle on gold & silver price manipulation "The banks, which do the Federal Reserve's bidding in the metals markets, have long been the government's lead actors in keeping down the prices of gold and silver, according to a former Goldman Sachs trader working at the London Bullion Market Association." "JPMorgan acts as an agent for the Federal Reserve; they act to halt the rise of gold and silver against the US dollar. JPMorgan is insulated from potential losses [on their short positions] by the Fed and/or the US taxpayer," Maguire said." Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/metal_are_in_the_pits_2arTlGNbMK7mb1uJeVHb0O#ixzz0ku3B58B6

These banks live by a completely different set of rules (if there are any). The law doesn't touch them or get in their way.

Wow, the major bank's unethical conduct and the manipulation of their books are just amazing. Wouldn't it be great if we all could do this when we needed money or wanted someone to invest in a business. Just remove 40% or 50% of you debt off the books until you get the loan, then put the debt back on the books. The level of corruption has become stunning. I guess its just another day in NYC and DC. So, I guess this means GS, JP Morgan, BofA, etc. debt levels are averaging about 40% more than what is being reported. Major U.S. banks masked risk levels: report "(Reuters) - Major U.S. banks temporarily lowered their debt levels just before reporting in the past five quarters, making it appear their balance sheets were less risky, the Wall Street Journal said, citing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York." "The paper said on Friday 18 banks, including Goldman Sachs Group (GS.N), Morgan Stanley (MS.N), J.P. Morgan Chase (JPM.N) Bank of America (BAC.N) and Citigroup (C.N), understated the debt levels used to fund securities trades by lowering them an average of 42 percent at the end of each period." http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE63813R20100409