ragerunner

Ink, Great pics. Evansville has quietly turned itself into a very nice mid size river town/city. They have a nice zoo, some good museums, great riverwalk, strong office sector downtown and the new arena is going to be a great addition to the urban core. I also like the business/residential neighborhood just to the east of downtown. It has some nice 'New Orleans' looking architecture. The city has also benefited from the rapid growth of the University of Southern Indiana which now has about 10,000 students. Of course it doesn't hurt that Holiday World with its great wooden coaster collection and top rated water park is only about 30 miles to the east of the city.

Did some quick research. Britian - 65% of GDP http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE58S17820090929 Japan - 55% of GDP http://www.thaindian.com/newsportal/uncategorized/japans-gdp-plummets-127-percent-amid-record-export-drop-lead_100155757.html China - 30% of GDP http://www.brainmass.com/homework-help/business/marketing/142032 Germany - 55% of GDP http://www.brainmass.com/homework-help/business/marketing/142032 What would be interesting is to see if the variables in the formula's are the same. Example: In the US consumer spending includes healthcare, but in Germany is that included in Government spending or consumer spending. If so than both the US and Germany have a 90% of GDP for consumer spending and government spending with 10% left over. Whatever it is most of Europe, Japan and the US are being 'hurt' currently by the reduction in consumer spending. I know this topic has mostly focus on the US in general, but Europe and Japan (as well as others) are taking this great recession as hard as the US. Their governments are trying to doctor the system just like we are. Germany is even doing a cash for clunkers type program right now. Their governments also are telling the people recovery is right around the corner. I think we know the drill.

True, Funny, Sad, Exciting, but ended on a sad note. Well maybe not, we all need good mega detergent.

I don't know if this 'speculation' is true or not. But, a lot of talk has been happening about removing the dollar as the main trading base for several months now. Look at IMF's approval to print their own money, the move of power from the G-8 to the G-20. Things are definitely changing, just how fast remains to be unseen. If the dollar is removed as the main trading currency, I think we are in for some serious inflation in the US, much quicker than expected. Of course, this might allow the government and debt holders to inflate their way out of all this nasty debt. Potential end of dollar-based oil deals helps gold shine "Gulf Arab states, along with China, Russia, Japan and France, are planning to put an end to dollar-based trading in the oil market, according to an exclusive report published Tuesday in the U.K. by The Independent." "In place of the greenback, the nations plan to use a basket of currencies, including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar, the report said." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/potential-end-of-dollar-based-oil-deals-lifts-gold-2009-10-06

The unemployment situation is on the edge of being depressionary. While other economic stats are still in the recession catagory. I think a very important stat is the employment number not the unemployment number. Can the majority of our other economic data stay level or even grow while unemployment/employment numbers continue to drop deeper into 'depressionary' data? We hear the economist and main stream media talk about a jobless recovery, but what about a continuing job lose recovery?

It just another piece of merging Cincy and Dayton into one giant metropolis. Its this type of development that is needed to make the Cincy/Dayton Metroplex become a completed reality.

Jobless Rate Climbs to 9.8 Percent in September "If laid-off workers who have settled for part-time work or have given up looking for new jobs are included, the unemployment rate rose to 17 percent, the highest on records dating from 1994." "The Labor Department said Friday that the economy lost a net total of 263,000 jobs last month, up from a downwardly revised 201,000 in August. That's above Wall Street economists' expectations of 180,000 job losses, according to a survey by Thomson Reuters." The economists miss their forcast more than the weatherman. I also noticed that the main stream media is starting to print and understand the concept of total unemployment and underemployment and not just the FED data. That is nice to see. It took them long enough.

I haven't seen much data on this until now. We new it was coming, and we know the number is only going to grow. Equifax: Commercial bankruptcies up in Q2 "Commercial bankruptcies are on the rise and have surpassed consumer bankruptcies, according to data from Equifax Inc. The Atlanta-based credit reporting firm (NYSE: EFX) said commercial bankruptcies increased by 208 percentage points from the first quarter of 2008 to the second quarter of 2009, while consumer bankruptcies rose by 122 percentage points for the same period." http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/09/28/daily60.html

Look at Y o Y but, September numbers may be lower than August.

New jobless claims rise; Americans' spending jumps "WASHINGTON – First-time claims for jobless benefits increased more than expected last week, a sign employers are reluctant to hire and the job market remains weak. And even though consumer spending jumped by the most in nearly eight years in August, due partly to the government's Cash for Clunkers program, economists question whether the improvement can be sustained. They note that households face rising unemployment, tight credit conditions and other obstacles." I think the economist, main street and wall street are starting to realize all the hype about the recession truly being over was nothing more than a wish upon a star. I think the increase in consumer spending will see a drop in the next few months.

I think Cit is going into the crapper. The FEDs will pull a positive GDP number out of their butts for the third quarter (which will probably be revised lower over the next few years). The general public will say, I don't see any major positive moves in the economy and wall street and economist will say happy days are here again. Then in the first half of 2010 some reality will start setting in that things really are not rebounding like everyone thought and the ARMs, Alt-A reset will begin in earnest. Does that help light the mood or should we go back to Springsteen?

US income gap widens as poor take hit in recession "Household income declined across all groups, but at sharper percentage levels for middle-income and poor Americans. Median income fell last year from $52,163 to $50,303, wiping out a decade's worth of gains to hit the lowest level since 1997." http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090929/ap_on_go_ot/us_census_income_gap_2 Kind of makes some of those monthly reports by the Government that are showing income as being up look a little off target. The Government Is The Mortgage Market "The Wall Street Journal reported that the FHA's reserve fund dropped from 6.4% in 2007 to about 3% today, putting it dangerously close to its mandated 2% minimum. And according to The Washington Post, nearly 90% of all new home loans are funded by the taxpayer up from 30% just four years ago." http://www.istockanalyst.com/article/viewarticle/articleid/3510356 So the taxpayer backed system is taking on almost all of the new risk with the private sector showing no confidence and/or capacity to participate. The level of debt risk that the government is taking on in the name of the taxpayer is stunning to say the least.

I have always love this type of thinkings. Its still getting worse just not as fast.

I am becoming more convinced the next world currency will not be the Euro or the Yen, but a world currency probably printed and controlled through the IMF.

I know I have post in the past that this economic recession would signal a shift in the balance of economic power in the world. That shift seems to be gaining speed. How much longer will the dollar remain the main currency of the world? Also note the increase in IMF power, add to this the G-8 giving the IMF earlier this year authority to print its own currency. No tinfoil hat with this stuff, just a look at what is actually happening. Power has never been just about military might, its other side is economics. G-20 Near Deal on Economy Plan Calls for Peer Review of Each Nation's Policies on Growth; G-8 to Take a Back Seat "PITTSBURGH -- The Group of 20 nations is close to an agreement that would require members to subject their economic policies to a type of "peer review," according to several senior G-20 officials, in a shift that would expose the U.S. and China to broad scrutiny of the way they run their economies. Also, the G-20 heads of state will announce on Friday that the G-20 will become the permanent council for international economic cooperation, eclipsing the Group of Eight, a senior U.S. administration official said." http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125383640233239423.html SNAP ANALYSIS: New world economic order takes shape at G20 "PITTSBURGH (Reuters) - The Group of 20 is set to become the premier coordinating body on global economic issues, reflecting a new world economic order in which emerging market countries like China are much more relevant, according to a draft communique. Leaders of the G20 developed and developing nations also agreed to make the International Monetary Fund more representative by increasing the voting power of countries that have long been under-represented in the world financial body, said the draft G20 communique obtained by Reuters." http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSTRE58O1FB20090925

Housing Crash to Resume on 7 Million Foreclosures, Amherst Says "Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The crash in U.S. home prices will probably resume because about 7 million properties that are likely to be seized by lenders have yet to hit the market, Amherst Securities Group LP analysts said. The “huge shadow inventory,” reflecting mortgages already being foreclosed upon or now delinquent..." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aw6_gqc0EKKg What is that huge lump under the rug and what on earth is that smell?

Pity the Investors Counting on a Bull Market "Household credit is shrinking... Profits are shrinking... Employment is shrinking... Housing values are shrinking... The wage base is shrinking... But the recession is over! Whoa... how is that possible?" http://www.fleetstreetinvest.co.uk/daily-reckoning/bill-bonner-essays/housing-recession-us-economy-57445.html One thing I have learned through these housing/recession threads is to try and keep an eye on basics. Weed out all the FED/Government/Media/RE mumbo jumbo and focus on the basics. They seem to be the items that end up determining the longer trend. I think this applies to things on the international, national, state and local level.

Leading indicators show recession 'bottoming out' Conference Board reports fifth straight rise in forward-looking gauge "The positive contributions came from slower supplier deliveries, the interest-rate spread, higher stock prices, more building permits and better consumer expectations. The negative contributions to the index came from the real money supply, jobless claims and capital-goods orders. The factory workweek and consumer-goods orders were unchanged in August." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-indicators-show-recession-bottoming-out-2009-09-21 1. Consumer sentiment is still in the basement? So, where did they pull a 'good' consumer expectation from? 2. Building permits are still down year over year and 2008 was a recession. Plus, I would hope we would see a little bump in home building permits, the taxpayer is giving people $8,000 in free money. What happens if/when we cut of that free money? 3. Higher stock prices. If you flood the banks with trillions and they are not lending than they are probably throwing some of that money at the stock market. 4. We have a money supply problem? Inflation risk? I am shocked. 5. There is that problem category again, big unemployment numbers. You have to hate it when that just keeps getting in the way. 6. On top of all of this, this data was lower than the 'experts' predicted. Whistling as you quietly pass the scary haunted house.

I would hope wall street would show some movement upward, its being pumped with taxpayer dollars through the banks like crazy. They are not lending the the taxpayer money out to others, they are investing it into the stock market.

I love to look at quotes like this and then compare them to the past. While today may not be a 'depression' the comments are so very similar its almost creepy. It also clearly shows the Feds and Government have know problem with creating spin and/or lies. Remember, this is from the same guy and institution that told us in 2007 they saw no impending recession and that subprime is all contained. Bernanke declares 'recession is very likely over' Unfortunately, unemployment will come down slowly "From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke told a conference at the Brookings Institution. But "it's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time." http://www.marketwatch.com/story//bernanke-declares-the-recession-over-2009-09-15 March 8, 1930 “President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days.” - Washington Dispatch. May 1, 1930 “While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity.” - President Hoover June 29, 1930 “The worst is over without a doubt.” - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor. August 29, 1930 “American labor may now look to the future with confidence.” - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor. September 12, 1930 “We have hit bottom and are on the upswing.” - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

I am not sure. I just notice that the old thread was gone. So I figured it was removed because of the new rules.

Cash for clunkers boosts US sales "Sales rose by 2.7% from the previous month, following the surprise fall in sales in July, the official figures from the Commerce Department showed. But compared with the same month last year, sales fell by 5.3%." http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8257032.stm If we were in the deeps of a deep recession in August 2008 and August 2009 sales are 5.3% lower, wouldn't that still be a major indicator that we are still in a recession? US credit shrinks at Great Depression rate prompting fears of double-dip recession "Both bank credit and the M3 money supply in the United States have been contracting at rates comparable to the onset of the Great Depression since early summer, raising fears of a double-dip recession in 2010 and a slide into debt-deflation." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/6190818/US-credit-shrinks-at-Great-Depression-rate-prompting-fears-of-double-dip-recession.html THE PICTURES ARE WORTH A LOOK. :-o Revealed: The ghost fleet of the recession "The biggest and most secretive gathering of ships in maritime history lies at anchor east of Singapore. Never before photographed, it is bigger than the U.S. and British navies combined but has no crew, no cargo and no destination - and is why your Christmas stocking may be on the light side this year" http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1212013/Revealed-The-ghost-fleet-recession.html#ixzz0RBg8KwUy

Just recently my family and I took a short vacation to southwest Colorado where alpine, desert, canyons, sand dunes and towering peaks meet. The following pics are from the towns of Durango and Silverton, San Juan Skyway National Scenic Road and Great Sand Dunes, Mesa Verde and Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Parks. The scenery was incredible. Hope you enjoy the tour. Great Sand Dunes National Park is home to the largest Sand Dunes in the United States (750 feet high and over 200 feet deep). Durango, Colorado is home to the Durango-Silverton Railroad, historic downtown core, Durango Mountain Ski area, Fort Lewis College (4,000 students with about 20% native American) and is at the base of the San Juan Mountain Range. Railroad Station and Museum The Strater Hotel was built in 1887 and is list on the Historic Hotels of America list by the National Trust for Historic Preservation. Chimney Rock Archaeological area is located near the Southern Ute Indian Reservation and has great spiritual significances to the tribes. Mesa Verde National Park is home to ancient Anasazi Indian communities, many built within the cliff walls of the canyons. Mesa Verde is also designated a UNESCO World Heritage Site. San Juan Skyway is a National Scenic Byway. The landscape was amazing. Silverton is an old mining town located along the San Juan Skyway and was founded in 1876. It is a Federal Designated Historic District. (Sorry, just a few pics, it was raining.) Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. The Canyon is over 2,000 feet deep and is know for its steep painted walls.

Coors Field is the home of the Colorado Rockies and opened in 1995 with a seating capacity of 50,445. The neighborhoods to the north (Ballpark) and northwest (Prospect) of the stadium have seen significant redevelopment and infill over the last 10 years. Both neighborhoods have a strong residential presence and are old warehouse and industrial areas. Prospect is basically surrounded by freeway and railroad tracks. I hope you enjoy the tour. Prospect Neighborhood.

If their track record at predicting future data holds true, then this numbers is way low. Treasury: Expect Millions More Foreclosures "Despite efforts to prop up the housing market, as many as six million Americans remain at risk of foreclosure over the next three years." http://www.businessinsider.com/treasury-expect-millions-of-more-foreclosures-2009-9 To help put this number into perspective. Reflecting On A Legacy Of Recessions: Job Losses "By any measure, the human toll of this recession has been great. More people are jobless for longer periods than at any time since the late 1940s. In the past year, almost 3.4 million homes went into foreclosure. And trillions of dollars in stock market wealth vanished." http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112684951 If we think we have seen the biggest hit to the financial industry and RE industry, wait until we double the last years foreclosure numbers. And I believe this number is very conservative.