ragerunner

If they have retractable roofs.

That is how I read it. If the consumer side of our economy 70%+ is not going to surge us forward at this time than what are the 'green shoots' and the 'economist' expecting to pull us out of the recession!!? They say we are emerging from the recession? How, with Gum drops, lollipops, and sugar plums?

It looks like the recession recovery is well underway. Job outlook hits worst-ever level Employers' hiring plans at lowest point in Manpower survey's history "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Employers' hiring plans for the upcoming fourth quarter dropped to their lowest level in the history of Manpower's Employment Outlook Survey, which started in 1962." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/hiring-plans-drop-to-record-low-manpower-2009-09-08

I think the next big round of resets (ARMs and Alt-A) will prove to be as big of a hit financially as subprime has been so far. How the banks and the Feds determine how to deal with this next big round of defaults will determine to a certain degree the level of damage that the banks take. ARMs and Alt-A resets are just as high as subprime was, with the only difference being the ARMs and Alt-A's have a much higher dollar value and potential loses (these loans were generally used for people with higher credit scores and on homes with higher dollar cost). Think suburbia and high end urban condo developments. I find this graph very concerning for our economy and country and is one of the reasons I think we have a long ways to go. Add in that a lot of the jobs being lost in this recession have been professional jobs (the category of people that may hold a large portion of the ARMs and Alt-A's) could make this very ugly. http://socializedlosses.blogspot.com/2009/01/update-of-mortgage-reset-graph.html CincyDad, Thank you for that clear breakdown. I know we have talked about this in the past as well as the 'moral' obligation side to these loans.

A very much need family addition to Cedar Point. Its been a long time since they put this much investment into a 'family' oriented ride. It should be interesting to see what the height limit turns out to be, 85 foot drop is fairly large. They even said there will be special effects and theming. For Cedar Fair that would be a big WOW!!!

The 'shadow' market lives and its growing rapidly. The growth of this limbo market will only cause more prolonged pain to the real estate industry, financial industry, communities and the economy has a whole. Wait until adjustable mortgages and Alt-A's kick into high gear starting in 2010. The only hope in keeping this from wiping out a larger chunk of the US economy is to try and slowly bleed the patient and hope it lives when the long process is over. (Note: This is only parts of the article - its very long.) Link below. Not Paying the Mortgage, Yet Stuck With the Keys Foreclosure Backlog Imperils Recovery A growing number of American homeowners are falling into financial limbo: They're badly behind on payments, but their banks have not yet foreclosed. The backlog of seriously delinquent mortgages, which so far affects about 1 million borrowers, is a shadow over hopes for a rebound in the nation's housing markets. It masks the full extent of the foreclosure crisis and threatens to depress prices even further just as some parts of the country are hinting at recovery. For lenders, it could portend even more financial losses tied to the mortgage meltdown. "It just means foreclosure rates are going to keep rising," said Patrick Newport, an economist for IHS Global Insight. ... http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/23/AR2009062303500.html

True to this point, but see the caveat in the last paragraph: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/08/31/business/main5276208.shtml Citi and AIG were huge. Until we know how those turn out, even good news medium-large fish like American Express and U.S. Bancorp needs to be taken with a small ocean's worth of salt. (I'll grant that Goldman and Morgan Stanley were bigger fish, though still not as big as Citi or AIG or BoA, and it's much better to be getting a profit from them than losing money. Still. Don't count any chickens yet.) Note that I'm keeping this to the topic of your question (ROI on the bailouts), not my original point (the desirability of a balanced budget amendment). TARP was only a part of the massive federal deficit this year, which is set to clock in at a whopping $1,800 billion. TARP was $700 billion. From what I understand (I will do a little more research), they maybe paying back the TARP money, but they are not taking back onto their balance sheets all that worthless paper (loans) that the Feds took off their hands until an undisclosed future time. When they start taking that paper back than I will consider this a winning proposition.

I am not sure the print presses have enough ink left in them to deal with this and the Prime residential loans and the auto industry and the ............

I think this is nothing. In another 12 to 18 months this number is going to be really ugly. I know some people dealing with this part of the industry and one of them the other day said banks are actually giving a lot of commercial mortgage's extensions so they don't have to take these loses onto the books. But, he also said the banks can only keep putting off the inevitable for only so long. Think of it as a voluntary 'California' type foreclosure moratorium across the nation for commercial mortgages (and the foreclosure numbers still doubled). It doesn't take much of an imagination to drive around and see all the vacant office, retail, distribution and industrial space that is growing rapidly. That is why I am amazed that any market would break ground on new large space in these categories this year. They will only add to that markets vacancy woes in the next year or two. Commercial Mortgage Defaults Jump for U.S. Banks (Update2) By Hui-yong Yu "Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- The default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks more than doubled in the second quarter from a year earlier amid falling rents and occupancies for malls, office buildings and warehouses. Loans that were 90 days or more past due climbed to 2.88 percent of outstanding balances in the second quarter, from 1.18 percent a year earlier, according to New York-based property research firm Real Estate Econometrics LLC. Defaults increased from 2.25 percent in the first quarter. “A delinquency may have resolved itself two years ago,” said Real Estate Econometrics President and Chief Economist Sam Chandan. “Today, even one missed payment may be more indicative of an underlying problem, so banks have to be very proactive in addressing the issue.” Banks held $1.087 trillion of commercial property loans in the quarter, up from $1.077 trillion in the previous three months. That’s almost 15 percent of all loans and leases held by banks, Real Estate Econometrics said. Defaults are rising both for lenders who hold commercial mortgages and for bondholders in the $700 billion U.S. market for securities backed by commercial mortgages." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9FRZ6ipJB8Y

While I don't think our situation is identical to Japan, they are now in their second 'lost' decade financially and its starting to cause some major political movement. Of course their significant declining population is not helping their economic situation.

I think people have a right to know were their taxpayer dollars are going. Especially when some of the big boys are reporting some nice profits and big bonuses coming in a few months. Also, if a financial institution was 'financially sound' then why did it need to tap into taxpayer money to continue to function? Then we have the FDIC requesting a massive increase in funds that it can tap into to cover a significant increase in bank failures. Makes you wonder how big the elephant is under the living room rug? Maybe main street has a right to take a peek. Federal Reserve Seeks Delay in Disclosure of Emergency Lending "Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- The Federal Reserve asked a judge yesterday to delay enforcement of her decision requiring the central bank to identify companies in its emergency lending programs. Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska in Manhattan said on Aug. 24 that the Fed had until Aug. 31 to disclose daily reports on borrowing by banks and other financial institutions. The central bank wants Preska to stay her order, made in a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, until the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York can act on an appeal that the Fed said it intends to file. The Fed and U.S. banks would suffer irreparable harm if details of the loan programs were made public, according to the central bank’s senior counsel, Yvonne Mizusawa. The Clearing House Association LLC, an industry-owned group in New York that processes payments between banks, filed a declaration that accompanied the request for a stay. “There are numerous examples of financially sound institutions collapsing or suffering further financial deterioration from the loss of public confidence,” Norman Nelson, vice president and general counsel for the group, said in the document." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5bjqcBdkB48

Thanks CincyDad for those comments. I think this 'moral' change is happening on both ends of debt, lender and borrower. I think what is happening is the debter is starting to respond to the situation in a manner that is more in line with the actions of the lender. That is, what does the legal document and law say. The lender (banks, etc.) have gotten to the point that they have removed the moral discussion on their end and so the borrower is removing the moral discussion on their part. I can remember as a young man in the 80s when my dad lost his job the local banker (who knew my parents and had been doing business with them for years) sat down with my dad and worked out a solution to help my parents until my dad was able to find new employment (he didn't just start the foreclosure and repo process). When more businesses were local it seemed their was more of a 'moral' decision in those economic actions. Today this local connection and local control over business is becoming more and more scarce. The moral issues should run both ways, I just think main street has decide (in general) they no long want this item to be a one way street. (Not saying it right or wrong.)

I think there is a difference between 'tamp down talk' and telling people the recession is over. Wall Street, the FEDs, IMF, etc. are trying to convince people it over and all is well. Their is to much bad debt, insolvent banks, an imploding commercial market to tell people it over.

I guess things are not as stable as the talking heads are trying to get the masses to believe. What I find most distasteful out of everything that is going on is the massive effort to manipulate public preception contrary to reality. Note: The red underlined sentence is my addition. Expect banks to be hit with major fees for deposit insurance FDIC considers another $5.6 billion fee on banks; 77 insolvencies for 2009 so far "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The manner in which five banks collapsed on Friday, costing the resource-stretched Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. roughly $3.7 billion, is raising concerns about the agency's depleted insurance fund used to protect depositors. That's driving expectations the agency will look in the short-term to cover losses by slapping large additional special fees on banks, with larger financial institutions taking on the brunt of the costs. The bank collapses and the FDIC's depleted deposit insurance fund -- $13 billion on hand as of May -- are leading observers to speculate that the agency will hit banks with two large special fees it said it would consider in September and December that could each roughly match a $5.6 billion one-time fee it charged banks in May. That fee is payable by Sept. 30. ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV1OhnG3_bhI

May the force be with you.

But, the wall street economist and talking heads on CNBC are telling use the recession is over because, the country is gaining jobs (NO), retail sales and spending are up (NO), foreclosure numbers are dropping (NO), personal income is on the rise (NO), company inventories are growing in anticipation of an increase in demand (NO), the commercial real estate market has avoided massive forthcoming foreclosures (NO), the stock market is up on happy talk (YES). US retail sales take surprise dip in July "WASHINGTON (AFP) - - US retail sales unexpectedly dipped 0.1 percent in July, government data showed Thursday in a report highlighting weakness in consumer demand that is crucial for recovery from recession. The Commerce Department's headline figure surprised most analysts who had expected a monthly sales increase of 0.7 percent in July after two months in a row of gains, and dented those looking for "green shoots" of recovery. "This is awful -- a reality check for the green shooters," said Ian Shepherdson of High Frequency Economics. The monthly retail sales data signal the direction of consumer spending, which accounts for roughly two-thirds of output in the world's largest economy. In a grim sign of weakening consumer demand that could restrain economic recovery, core retail sales -- excluding automobiles and gasoline, whose price is often volatile -- fell for the fifth consecutive month, by 0.4 percent, after a 0.1 decline in June. "The big story is the core ... the trend is still clearly downwards," Shepherdson said." For the full article. http://sg.news.yahoo.com/afp/20090813/tts-us-economy-retail-sales-972e412.html

Capitol Hill is located southeast of Downtown Denver and covers about 80 blocks. It is Denver's most dense neighborhood, residential wise, and has a wide mix of architectural styles and design. The neighborhood is very pedestrian focused with the streets covered in tree canopies. Its a great urban neighborhood that alive and growing. Hope you enjoy. Governor's Mansion.

Not as easy at it sounds if what you need to refinance is worth less than what you owe on it. (Which will cover a lot of these adjustable rate loans.)

Things are worsening more slowly Unemployment is still rising -- but not as fast "Aug. 7, 2009 | The economy is getting worse more slowly. That's just about the only clear reading that's coming from the economic reports, including this morning's important one on employment. The pace of job losses slowed -- payrolls fell by 247,000, after a 443,000 loss in June, and the official jobless rate dropped from 9.5 to 9.4 percent. Be careful with these figures, though. They don't include the increasing numbers of people working part-time who'd rather have full-time jobs. Nor do they include a large number who have given up looking for work. They don't reflect the many millions who have found new jobs that pay less than the old ones they lost. And they don't include one of the shortest typical workweeks on record, for those who still have full-time jobs. (On this score, though, another indication that things are worsening more slowly -- the workweek went up very slightly from 33 hours.) Nor, for that matter, do the numbers reflect the 130,000 people who are coming into the labor force each month ready and willing to work, who can't find jobs. If all these people are included, my estimate is that one out of five Americans who would otherwise be working full-time are now underemployed. We are still experiencing the biggest decline of any post-World War II economic slump." http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/08/07/reich_unemployment/

Doesn't it only matter if you have to sell? Its not like a car that is depreciating in value and has no chance of rising. For the majority of people, the current value is irrelevant if you don't have to move. The big problem is not only will they be upside down on their loan, but they will need to refinance as well. This is going to send foreclosures through the roof again and the price tag will be much higher than subprime (which was mostly loans on lower cost housing). That is why subprime creamed investors and older, inner city neighborhoods. This next round is going to hit the high end suburbs and more expensive urban areas.

I wonder how if we could see the breakdown of location of these homes. - city - suburb - exurb I bet the majority of those homes are those tacky ass new build tract homes or soulless mcmansions! I think this next round will hit higher end suburbia and high end urban condo areas the most.

IF YOU THINK THIS IS OVER, THINK AGAIN. We are only in the eye of the storm, the back half has not even hit yet. About half of U.S. mortgages seen underwater by 2011 NEW YORK (Reuters) – The percentage of U.S. homeowners who owe more than their house is worth will nearly double to 48 percent in 2011 from 26 percent at the end of March, portending another blow to the housing market, Deutsche Bank said on Wednesday. Home price declines will have their biggest impact on prime "conforming" loans that meet underwriting and size guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the bank said in a report. Prime conforming loans make up two-thirds of mortgages, and are typically less risky because of stringent requirements. "We project the next phase of the housing decline will have a far greater impact on prime borrowers," Deutsche analysts Karen Weaver and Ying Shen said in the report. ... http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090805/bs_nm/us_usa_housing_deutschebank

It looks like the recession is starting to hit CF pretty hard. 2nd quarter profits were off by 50% and attendance was down by 1 million. In one article Kinzel tried to calm investers by saying the company would make it through the 2009 season but, he did call the situation a crisis. Cedar Fair sees second-quarter earnings plunge as attendance sags "Cedar Fair Entertainment Co. (NYSE: FUN) has reported a sharp drop in second-quarter earnings as attendance and per-capita spending at its amusement and water parks continue to trail the level of a year ago. The parent of Cedar Point and Kings Island said its net income in the quarter that ended June 28 fell nearly 50%, to $7.4 million, or 13 cents per diluted partnership unit, from $14.7 million, or 26 cents per unit, in the second quarter of 2008... http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20090804/FREE/908049982#

I think this bad bank concept, if approved, will grow to include more and more bad debt from other financial institutions over time. This has already been done to a certain degree with the FEDs accepting bad paper for money. In the end Main Street will be the one either trying to repay all the loses or defaulting on the loses. In my opinion this is really another form of bankrupcy for these companies as well as the government. It just comes down to who will end up holding the bag and taking the big lose (the taxpayer and/or the debters). Feds weigh remake of loan giants By Zachary A. Goldfarb and David Cho The Washington Post Updated: 08/06/2009 03:02:45 AM MDT "WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is considering an overhaul of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac that would strip the mortgage finance giants of hundreds of billions of dollars in troubled loans and create a new structure to support the home-loan market, government officials said. The bad debts the firms own would be placed in new government financial institutions — so-called bad banks — that would take responsibility for collecting as much of the outstanding balance as possible. What would be left would be two healthy financial companies with a clean slate. The moves would represent one of the most dramatic reorderings of the badly shattered housing finance system since Fannie Mae was created by Congress to support mortgage lending during the Great Depression. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, based in McLean, Va., have government charters to buy home loans from banks, which they then repackage and sell to investors. The banks can then use the proceeds to offer more loans to homebuyers. ... http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_13002357

I think this group has a very good plan for the future and a good outline of how to get there. I just hope the politics, power and financial support backs this effort. It could significantly change Cincy future.