ragerunner

I don't know if Goldman will every be truly questioned or held accountable, but it would be wonderful to watch. Is grousing about Goldman reaching critical mass? Commentary: Questions are reaching the point where something might happen By Peter Brimelow, MarketWatch "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — I’m amazed: Grousing about Goldman Sachs, and fury at the financial sector, is actually reaching the point where something might happen — maybe even answers to questions we’ve been asking for a while. As Jim Bianco of Bianco Research just noted in his News Clips/Daily Commentary service: "The amount of bad news that is generating with its record earnings is incredible. We cannot remember a company that has received so much scorn for making money." Bianco linked to critical stories in the Economist and the New York Times, and a scathing op-ed column ("The Joy of Sachs") by Paul Krugman. ... http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-grousing-about-goldman-reaching-critical-mass

Here is a great article about how the government 'collects' employment data. I know this has been a subject that's been discussed several times on this thread. It definitely shows how the 'assumptions' are keeping the picture more rosy than it really is. Nine Reasons the Economy is Not Getting Better Jobs data paint a discouraging picture of more pain to come By Mortimer Zuckerman Posted July 13, 2009 "We are now looking at unemployment numbers that undermine any confidence that we might be nearing the bottom of the recession. The appropriate metaphor is not the green shoots of new growth. A better image is to look at the true total of jobless people as a prudent navigator looks at an iceberg. What we see on the surface is disconcerting enough. The estimate from the Bureau of Labor Statistics of job losses for June is 467,000. That increases by 7.2 million the number of unemployed since the start of the recession. The cumulative job losses over the past six months have been greater than for any other half-year period since World War II, including demobilization. What's more, the job losses are now equal to the net job gains over the previous nine years, making this the only recession since the Great Depression to wipe out all employment growth from the previous business cycle. That's bad enough. But here are nine reasons we are in even more trouble than the 9.5 percent unemployment rate indicates. ... http://www.usnews.com/articles/opinion/mzuckerman/2009/07/13/nine-reasons-the-economy-is-not-getting-better.html

Weapons spending is, by its nature, inflationary. It takes goods and resources out of the economy and drives up prices for the rest of the economy. Hence, it weakens our economy immediately and in the long term. If those resources are put to use in a different way. I am not currently convinced that there is another industry(s) waiting to employee many of those resources (human capital) that will be reduced from the defense industry retraction.

While the longer term reduction in cost to the US can be health for the financial state of the country, this reduction in military spending will result in a lot of high paying job loses.

Just came across some more NYC information. NYC has been fairing better than most, but the economic damage is starting to show its ugly face in the big apple. Manhattan Storefronts Hit Highest Vacancies Since ‘01 (Update3) "Manhattan shopping strips from the Upper East Side to SoHo are flooded with empty storefronts. The borough’s second-quarter vacancy rate rose to 12.4 percent and now stands at the highest since 2001 as rising unemployment and the recession curb spending, according to data compiled by Faith Hope Consolo, chairman of the retail leasing and sales division at Manhattan- based Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate. “The consumer just stopped shopping,” Consolo said. More than 15 percent of the 185 stores on Madison Avenue between 57th and 72nd streets are vacant or about to lose tenants, according to New York-based broker Cushman & Wakefield Inc. In SoHo, 11 percent of the 551 stores are listed as available for lease. About 9 percent of the 265 stores on the Upper West Side are without tenants or soon will be. Rents may fall as much as 23 percent by the fourth quarter from a year earlier and may continue dropping through 2010 given the pace of unemployment and consumer demand, according to Sam Chandan, chief economist at research firm Real Estate Econometrics in New York." "New York City’s unemployment rate climbed to 9.5 percent in June, the highest since July 1997, the state Labor Department said yesterday." "Times Square availabilities reached 10 percent in the second quarter, up from 7.3 percent a year earlier, Cushman reported." "Fifth Avenue between 42nd and 49th streets has the highest vacancy rate in Manhattan at 15 percent, Prudential said. The rate is 13 percent in the Meatpacking district, the cobble- stoned area of trendy nightclubs where Cupertino, California- based Apple Inc. has a store." For the complete story here is the link. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601110&sid=aBA.h.FWiVbE

I marked the page. I think it will be very interesting to see what the next few months do. Unless construction and residential surges even higher than it did in May for the next several months, the year is going to be 50% or more down from the previous year. With the job loses growing and another big boy on the edge (CIT) I am not convinced NYC is about to make a turn around any time soon.

The NYC construction news is very bad. In the first 5 months of 2008 $11.12 billion of new construction was started vs the first 5 months of 2009 with a total of $4.45 billion of new construction. That is a major drop (about 60%). Residential development is also taking it hard. For the first 4 months of 2008 an average of 2,700 units were started per month, in 2009 that average dropped to only 460 units per month. NYC had up to this year been different, but it is now on a fast track to join the rest of the country. The job losses and falling residential prices are increasing rapidly.

CIT shares slump as investors gird for bankruptcy Troubled lender reportedly in last-ditch scramble for $2 billion "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - CIT Group Inc. shares slumped more than 75% Thursday as investors girded for what may be the fourth-largest bankruptcy in U.S. history after the troubled lender failed to get a government bailout." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cit-shares-slump-as-investors-gird-for-bankruptcy It looks like another big boy is about to bite the dust. I find it interesting to watch who is getting government bailout and who is being allowed to go BK. While I do believe part of the strategy is to slowly let big companies go BK over time(the debt in the system is just to big). I also can't help but wonder, why are most in serious pain, but a few have magically escape? Those 'bandits' just seem to have certain friends in strategic positions at the right time. We may very well end up with one big investment house/bank and a couple of massive banks running the entire show.

Nice pics Ink. Bloomington is a wonderful town with a lot of mix use buildings and some very cutting edge pedestrian spaces. The city also has a very good transit system.

Stunning pictures of a stunning landscape. I find the mountains very calming in a busy world.

I like the Cramer one. I realize he is a tv entertainer, but their are people that still actually listen to him and make financial dicisions. “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” -Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator [March 2008]

Love Madison. One of the great American gems.

I really enjoy coming across these types of post. It really helps put things into prospective and makes you realize just how much lying, miss information and stupidity has been feed to the American public. It also makes you realize the comments that are currently coming out from the same sources (FEDs, Treasury, Govt, NAR, etc...) should be take with a grain of salt. Their track record should speaks volumes to main street. 2004 1. “The ability of lending institutions to manage the risks associated with mortgages that have high loan-to-value ratios seems to have improved markedly over the past decade.” -Alan Greenspan [February 2004] -2005 2. “Home sales are coming down from the mountain peak, but they will level out at a high plateau, a plateau that is higher than previous peaks in the housing cycle.” -David Lereah, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors [December 2005] -2006 3. “I don’t know, but I think the worst of this may well be over.” -Alan Greenspan, [October 2006] -2007 4. “We have a very strong global economy… and I feel very comfortable with the global economy. -Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson [March, 2007] 5. “The impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime markets seems likely to be contained.” -Ben Bernanke [March 28, 2007] 6. “In today’s environment, it is virtually impossible to violate rules.” -Bernie Madoff [November 2007] -2008 7. “Over the next few months, existing-home sales are expected to hold fairly steady as indicated by pending sales activity, then rise later in the year and continue to improve in 2009.” -National Association of Realtors [January 2008] 8. “Although recent data suggest that the probability of a recession in 2008 has increased, CBO does not expect the slowdown in economic growth to be large enough to register as a recession.” -US Congressional Budget Office [January 2008] 9. “I don’t think we’re headed to a recession.” -President George W. Bush [February 2008] 10. “I don’t anticipate any serious problems of that sort among the large internationally active banks that make up a very substantial part of our banking system.” -Ben Bernanke [February 28, 2008] 11. “No! No! No! Bear Stearns is not in trouble.” -Jim Cramer, CNBC commentator [March 2008] 12. “Later this year, I expect growth will pick up.” -Henry Paulson, just after Treasury had mailed out 130 million economic stimulus cheques [May 2008] 13. “Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are fundamentally sound. They’re not in danger of going under…. I think they are in good shape going forward.” -Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee [July 2008] 14. “My own belief is if we were going to have some sort of big crash or recession, we probably would have had it by now.” -Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper [september 2008] 15. “We’re probably somewhere pretty close to a bottom.” -Fund manager Barton Biggs [september 2008] 16. “The fundamentals of our economy are strong.” -US Senator John McCain [sept 15, 2008] 17. “We remain committed to examining all strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.” -Lehman Bros. CEO Dick Fuld, shortly before Lehman went bankrupt [sept 2008] http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=5525#comments

The Pearl Street Mall in Boulder is truly one of America's great urban spaces. Historic architecture, incredible pedestrian space, art, dining, shopping, and interactive elements create a very vibrant urban experience. The pics were taken last week during a work day afternoon. Hope you enjoy.

The Golden Triangle Neighborhood is located just south of the Denver Civic Center/Cultural area. It has a strong residential base with a growing retail and office sector. I hope you enjoy the tour. One of my favorite buildings in the neighborhood.

Goldman Trading-Code Investment Put at Risk by Theft (Update3) July 6 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. may lose its investment in a proprietary trading code and millions of dollars from increased competition if software allegedly stolen by a former employee gets into the wrong hands, a prosecutor said. Sergey Aleynikov, an ex-Goldman Sachs computer programmer, was arrested July 3 after arriving at Liberty International Airport in Newark, New Jersey, U.S. officials said. Aleynikov, 39, who has dual American and Russian citizenship, is charged in a criminal complaint with stealing the trading software. Teza Technologies LLC, a Chicago-based firm co-founded by a former Citadel Investment Group LLC trader, said it suspended Aleynikov, who started there on July 2. At a court appearance July 4 in Manhattan, Assistant U.S. Attorney Joseph Facciponti told a federal judge that Aleynikov’s alleged theft poses a risk to U.S. markets. Aleynikov transferred the code, which is worth millions of dollars, to a computer server in Germany, and others may have had access to it, Facciponti said, adding that New York-based Goldman Sachs may be harmed if the software is disseminated. “The bank has raised the possibility that there is a danger that somebody who knew how to use this program could use it to manipulate markets in unfair ways,” Facciponti said, according to a recording of the hearing made public today. “The copy in Germany is still out there, and we at this time do not know who else has access to it.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aoSjBHO2lOJk Interesting Bloomberg article. Makes you wonder a little, if others could use this to manipulate markets in an unfair way, what is keeping GS from using it in an inappropriate way? :? They continue to out perform their financial peers through this deep recession and have a lot of friends at the Treasury (Hank Paulson, etc...) and the Feds. I am sure they are an upstanding company that is only looking to be honest in all their dealings and make a dollar by playing fair in the sandbox.

Here is a timely article talking about changes to our way of life, economy, and the balance of the world financial system. Debt Burden Quickens Power Shift as G-8 Loses Clout (Update2) "July 7 (Bloomberg) -- The world’s most affluent nations will take decades to work off the biggest buildup in debt since World War II. The political costs may be permanent, laid bare at this week’s Group of Eight summit of leading industrial powers. Bank bailouts and recession-fighting measures will explode the debt of the advanced economies to at least 114 percent of gross domestic product in 2014, more than triple the 35 percent of the main emerging economies including China, the International Monetary Fund forecasts. The run-up in debt has hastened a power shift that is sapping the industrial world’s authority to impose its economic doctrine, currency arrangements or greenhouse-gas reduction strategies. Even some G-8 officials acknowledge that the group has lost its grip amid the global recession they spawned. ... http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azyYcjXIyKQI

If I only had a dollar for ever time someone said that on this thread over the last few years I would be living on my own tropical island today. We heard it when it was said that the economy was going into a recession, when it was said housing was going to implode, when it was said that the financial system was going to almost collapse, and when it was said this will be the worst recession since the great depression. I guess it comes down to the concept of what is pessimism vs reality. I think this thread and the other one was about reality. I don't think the world is about to end, but major changes to our way of life, economy, and the balance of the world financial system is definitely changing much more than it did in the 70s or 80s.

Man, I wish I had not missed out on this discussion. I think the interesting issue this time around is how interconnected the world is financially. The US is most definitely in decline compared to its past, but I am not sure there is any other nation currently positioned to take over the top dog place (financially or other wise) any time soon without a major war (which history has been show has been fought over and over again during economic decline). I think we are going to see the creation of a international monetary system in the next 5 to 10 years and that will create a 'balance' in world power (US, Europe - maybe, China, Russia) for X amount of time. But its becoming clearer and clearer we will no long 'rule' the world scene. This scenario is based on all the big boys playing nice through all of this.

American jobs data are worse than we think By Mohamed El-Erian "What if the US unemployment rate rises above 10 per cent and stays there for an extended period? This is a question that is not being asked enough, even though it entails yet another historical anomaly that will further complicate policy formulation and open it up to greater political interference. The unemployment rate is traditionally characterised as a lagging indicator and, as such, is viewed as having limited predictive power. After all, unemployment is a reflection of decisions taken earlier in the cycle so the rate always lags behind the realities on the ground – or so says conventional wisdom. This conventional wisdom is valid most, but not all of the time. There are rare occasions, such as today, when we should think of the unemployment rate as much more than a lagging indicator; it has the potential to influence future economic behaviours and outlooks. ... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1e06911c-6719-11de-925f-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=b8efc2ae-d98d-11dc-bd4d-0000779fd2ac.html

Thank you for the pics, I really liked pics no. 9 (the overview). Grand Rapids appears to be really moving forward on downtown development and infill in surrounding neighborhoods. I hope they get their streetcar system.

I actually work with 3 UK citizens in Denver. You also get a lot of UK citizens retiring in the US (Florida, etc...), same with Canadians.

For a small town Downtown Troy has a lot going for it. Cafes, Restaurants, pedestrian space, park land along the river and they even have an outdoor sound system that they play music on throughout the day.

Where is business revenue and stock prices headed? I think the insiders have a pretty good understanding were things are going and they are cashing out fast. This type of action should give market participants a good feel for the near future. Last time this happened the market started to collapse two months later. I think we are currently in a calm moment in the eye of the storm. Insiders Exit Shares at the Fastest Pace in Two Years (Update1) By Lynn Thomasson and Michael Tsang June 22 (Bloomberg) -- Executives at U.S. companies are taking advantage of the biggest stock-market rally in 71 years to sell their shares at the fastest pace since credit markets started to seize up two years ago. Insiders of Standard & Poor’s 500 Index companies were net sellers for 14 straight weeks as the gauge rose 36 percent, data compiled by InsiderScore.com show. Amgen Inc. Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Kevin Sharer and five other officials sold $8.2 million of stock. Christopher Donahue, the CEO of Federated Investors Inc., and his brother, Chief Financial Officer Thomas Donahue, offered the most in three years. Sales by CEOs, directors and senior officers have accelerated to the highest level since June 2007, two months before credit markets froze, as the S&P 500 rebounded from its 12-year low in March. The increase is making investors more skittish because executives presumably have the best information about their companies’ prospects. “If insiders are selling into the rally, that shows they don’t expect their business to be able to support current stock- price levels,” said Joseph Keating, the chief investment officer of Raleigh, North Carolina-based RBC Bank, the unit of Royal Bank of Canada that oversees $33 billion in client assets. “They’re taking advantage of this bounce and selling into it.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aflROe0Pe0QM

To my knowledge and research Cherry Creek is part of the City of Denver. The neighborhood has about 5,000 people living in its defined boundaries with a mean income around $100,000. So, it does have a lot of money in the area.