ragerunner

Oh, I'm not comparing a recession to the depression. I'm showing the depression compared to the start of a season where parents and adults will spend millions on entertainment ... almost every kind of entertainment available to man. You're apples to oranges, or rather tires was right on the money, btw. ;) ... thank you. I am glad you agree on what we are talking about. You have come a long ways since we starting this discussion. :wink: I think the real discussion is how our society was spending X amount on houses, cars, entertainment, etc... and now they only can spend 1/2 of X. That means a significant reduction in business for a lot of companies and a lot of jobs being lost. Thus, we have a deeping recession and its not done yet.

CincyDad, I can tell you from job posting and many friends throughout the country that work in local government, cuts are happening all across the board (including layoffs). It may not be at the same levels as the manufacturing or construction industry but its building. I can't remember (its been a while), but we had a discussion on here about how the government collects data. I believe its was shown that they just factor in a certain amount of government jobs being created (as a given), weather or not it actually is happening. Maybe you remember that discussion a little better.

Cincinnatus, I think we need to remember we are talking about a significant recession not a depression. So, showing a pic from a recession and then showing one from the depths of the great depression is like comparing apples to oranges (or more like an apple to a tire).

I think it's hilarious that the same paper (Cincy Enquirer) gives us constant updates on the recession and then publishes an article about King's Islands successful opening weekend? lol I mean, we're in a recession, but we're being shown pictures of people running in droves to the roller coasters - trying to be first in line. I wonder how the folks that lived during the Great Depression would've thought about this? People may still be spending, but they are not spending as much. KI is a fairly cheap, local option for entertainment. People may be replacing the family summer vacation with KI passes, or Six Flags passes. Many local parks are betting that they can squeeze some of the remaining discretionary dollars out of the consumers wallets with significant new investments (KI Diamondback, Holiday World Pilgrams Plunge, etc...). I know the big parks are taking a significant hit at this time, Disney, Universal, Sea World all are showing significant drops in revenue and attendance. It will be interesting to see how the seasonal, local parks fair over the summer season. I personally think they are going to do well this summer. If we get the next leg down in the economy this fall and winter, then the local parks may find things significantly tighter next summer.

A lot of good thoughts. I am not sure the government part is as big as you might think, or as stable. While the FEDs may not be laying off, state and local government is slashing workers at a pretty fast rate. I am not sure the FEDs will be able to create enough jobs to cover the state and local government loses and still have room to absorb other industry loses as well.

Here is a quick look at how this global recession is kicking into high gear. As the negative feed back loop builds, the next leg down is almost impossible to stop. Delay maybe, avoid, probably not. UK wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years "Weekly wages fell at the fastest rate in 60 years in February as City bonuses were slashed and workers agreed to reduced hours in the wake of recession, the latest official figures show." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/5245729/UK-wages-collapse-at-fastest-rate-in-60-years.html BoJ revises down growth forecast By Michiyo Nakamoto in Tokyo "The Bank of Japan expects growth to contract by a significantly greater margin than it forecast just two months ago as the world’s second largest economy continues to suffer from a collapse in demand. “Economic conditions in Japan have deteriorated significantly,” the BoJ said in a statement on Thursday as it lowered its forecast for the economy to a 3.1 per cent contraction in the year to next March, rather than a previously expected 2 per cent decline in growth." http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b6bb3582-352a-11de-940a-00144feabdc0.html Germany contracts 6pc as eurozone bank deposits fall at fastest rate since Depression "Germany has slashed its growth forecast, admitting in an embarrassing volte-face that the economy will contract by 6pc this year in the worst recession of any major country in the Western world." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/recession/5244799/Germany-contracts-6pc-as-eurozone-bank-deposits-fall-at-fastest-rate-since-Depression.html

Sorry for the Cleveland mistake. I was in a hurry this morning. I have corrected my post and added the link (which I always try and do). Its interesting to see how Columbus, Lexington, Indy and Cleveland are fairing a little better than the nation with Cincy at the national level and St. Louis, Chicago, Dayton and Louisville fairing worse than the national average so far.

Here is a look at metro unemployment rates and how some local areas are doing at this time. Metro Unemployment Rates for March 2009 United States 9.0 1. Iowa City, IA Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.6 12. Morgantown, WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8 22. Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2 41. Oklahoma City, OK Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6 49. San Antonio, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.9 73. Charleston, WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.5 99. Bloomington, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.1 103. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2 124. Pittsburgh, PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.6 143. (Tie) Columbus, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.1 143. Lexington-Fayette, KY Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.1 150. Kansas City, MO-KS Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.2 164. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.4 182. (Tie) Indianapolis-Carmel, IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7 182. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 8.7 210. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.0 235. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, Metropolitan Statistical Area 9.4 235. St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area1 9.4 268. Louisville-Jefferson County, Metropolitan Statistical Area 10.2 299. Dayton, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area 11.1 372. El Centro, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 25.1 http://www.bls.gov/web/laummtrk.htm

Negative GDP rating's are far from being over. With unemployment continuing to rise and foreclosures still going up we have a long ways to go before a meaningful recovery. GDP falls 6.1% in first quarter on record drop in investment Capital spending, inventories crater as consumer spending rebounds "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted violently again in the first quarter of the year as business investment declined at a record rate, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Real gross domestic product -- the inflation-adjusted, seasonally adjusted value of all goods and services produced in the United States -- fell at a 6.1% annualized rate in the first quarter, nearly matching the 6.3% decline in the fourth quarter of 2008. Read the full report. The two-quarter contraction is the worst in more than 50 years. Since the 1947, the economy had never contracted by more than 4% for two consecutive quarters. With a 0.5% drop in the third quarter of 2008, it's the first time the economy has contracted for three consecutive quarters since 1975." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/GDP-falls-61-record-drop/story.aspx?guid=%7BF4F6A5E6%2DB2F9%2D43B4%2D876E%2D57D2DBC107F5%7D

How long ago was it that you live in Golden? My understanding of Golden is that its a pretty progressive place, with a liberal slant (near Boulder), and a strong urban infill and redevelopment movement.

I hope to take pics of Manitou Springs this weekend. They have done a really good job preserving historical structures and infill. I also love how the surrounding residential neighborhoods are developed into the hillsides.

I recently visited Old Colorado City, a small business district in Colorado Springs (part local neighborhood part tourist area), and I got to visit the Garden of the Gods (stunning). Garden of the Gods is a Colorado Springs city park near Old Colorado City and Pikes Peak. I am sorry about the lighting in the pics, as soon as I got there storm clouds rolled in over the mountains. Library branch in Old Colorado City. Garden of the Gods was spectacular.

It was hard to tell. It looked like they were more decorative than actually part of the support system.

It does have a touristy component to it but, it more a place for the locals to go and enjoy the mountain surroundings. No ski resorts, etc... are nearby. It also has a good mixed of local establishments and a strong residential base. I am sure the light rail line will help that grow even more.

Here are some pics of downtown Golden, Colorado I took over the weekend. Golden was established in 1859 during the gold rush and is located on the westside of Denver next to the Rocky Mountains. The town is home to the Colorado School of Mines (4,000 students) the Coors facilities, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. The town's current population is about 20,000. RTD's new western light rail line is currently under construction and will extend out to the town. Colorado Mountaineering Center Park next to downtown on Clear Creek. Coors Plant.

The instability that this economic collapse is going to cause in parts of the world is not going to be pretty. The capital well is running dry and some economies will wither By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 8:49AM BST 26 Apr 2009 "The world is running out of capital. We cannot take it for granted that the global bond markets will prove deep enough to fund the $6 trillion or so needed for the Obama fiscal package, US-European bank bail-outs, and ballooning deficits almost everywhere. Unless this capital is forthcoming, a clutch of countries will prove unable to roll over their debts at a bearable cost. Those that cannot print money to tide them through, either because they no longer have a national currency (Ireland, Club Med), or because they borrowed abroad (East Europe), run the biggest risk of default. Traders already whisper that some governments are buying their own debt through proxies at bond auctions to keep up illusions – not to be confused with transparent buying by central banks under quantitative easing. This cannot continue for long. ... Link to the rest of the story. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5220118/The-capital-well-is-running-dry-and-some-economies-will-wither.html

Great addition to the park. This was something KI was missing.

There will be no bottom to this recession until unemployment stops going up. There is a nice map showing all the states in this article. Oregon and Michigan push past 12% jobless Unemployment rises in 46 states and D.C.; Michigan leads nation at 12.6%, while Oregon shoots to second worst at 12.1%. "NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The government on Friday released another sobering report on the jobs crisis, with the unemployment rate rising in 46 states and Washington, D.C., and pushing past 12% in Michigan and Oregon. Michigan led the list with a jobless rate of 12.6 in March, up from 12% the prior month. But the most dramatic increase was in Oregon, which went from 10.7% to 12.1% - the second-highest among the states. Oregon was followed by South Carolina, at 11.4% in March, and California, at 11.2%." http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/17/news/economy/unemployment/index.htm

Looks like a great trip to a beautiful country. Good photography work.

Stunning. I could live in an environment.

Does anyone else find this almost funny (in a sad way)? How can this type of data still be a surprise? When does the 'analysts' finally lose all credibility? In general 'they' keep being surprised month after month. Here is a simple thought, unemployment continues to rise meaning less and less people have money to spend. Along with all the other economic issues that our country is facing, this 'prediction' should be pretty easy. Retail sales fall unexpectedly in March "WASHINGTON—Retail sales fell unexpectedly in March, delivering a setback to hopes that the economy's steep slide could be bottoming out. The Commerce Department said Tuesday that retail sales dipped 1.1 percent in March. It was the biggest decline in three months and a much weaker showing than the 0.3 percent increase that analysts expected. A big drop in auto sales led the overall slump in demand. Sales also plunged at clothing stores, appliance outlets and furniture stores." http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_12138619

OK, let me put on my 'tinfoil hat' and layout what I think the plan is. Rewrite mark to market allowing the banks to have a 'suprising' quarter (TARP money will also help). Develop a stress test that will basically show everyone is going to make it, which will give Wall Street a reason to party. This will then make things stable enough, for the moment, to send GM into bankruptcy without completely destroying the market. Main street on the other hand will feel this pain in many different ways. FDIC BAIR(S) TEETH TAKES TREASURY'S TIM TO TASK ON TALF STRESS TEST By MARK DeCAMBRE "The stress tests the government are about to conduct on some of the nation's largest banks is being blasted by insiders at Sheila Bair's Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., who say it's a pointless exercise that's more sizzle than steak. The FDIC's basic beef with the stress test is that it is not a credible way to assess how much additional cash beaten-down banks will need to weather what many Wall Street experts predict will be more losses in the coming months. The tests are conducted by the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve on the nation's 19 biggest banks, including behemoths Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase. "It's a sham," one source told The Post, describing the test as an "open-book, take-home exam" that doesn't actually work." http://www.nypost.com/seven/04082009/business/fdic_bair_s__teeth_163380.htm GM preparing for possible bankruptcy: report "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Treasury is directing General Motors Corp. to lay the groundwork for a bankruptcy filing by a June 1 deadline, despite GM's public contention that it could still reorganize outside court, the New York Times reported Sunday, citing unnamed people with knowledge of the plans. Members of President Obama's automotive task force are holding ongoing meetings and conference calls with GM officials and their advisers in Detroit and Washington, the report said, with the goal to prepare for a fast "surgical" bankruptcy." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/GM-preparing-possible-bankruptcy-report/story.aspx?guid=%7B9BE2FACB%2DAE20%2D4915%2DACC0%2D382664116BBC%7D

Yeah, I saw that Dayton number and really questioned it as I did my own research on this using the same data source a year or two ago and was getting a very different number (I was using zip codes, not concentric circles). This seems very possible. The smaller the city the less distance (in general) it will be to the outer edges. 10 miles from downtown Dayton can very well put you at the bypass. 10 miles from downtown Cincy or Chicago may not get you even close to the bypass or edges of suburbia.

The great commercial unwinding has begun. Vacancies at U.S. Retail Centers Hit 10-Year High, Reis Says By Hui-yong Yu "April 8 (Bloomberg) -- Vacancies at U.S. malls and shopping centers rose to their highest in more than 10 years as consumer spending fell and stores closed in the recession, according to first-quarter data released today by Reis Inc. More empty stores and lower rents are ahead “unless conditions change dramatically,” said Victor Calanog, director of research at the New York-based real estate research firm. He forecast the declines would last through next year." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag2nw7_BPdCI&refer=home Something tells me there must be some real ugliness here if the FEDs are willing to basically say they are going to purposely delay this for Wall Street's benefit. I think it is also telling that they may just release a general view not company specific. What happened to the 'promised' transparency? UPDATE 1-US to delay bank test results for earnings-source "* Delay would avoid 1st quarter results period * Source: Treasury still mulling stress test disclosure (Adds details on stress tests, byline) By Karey Wutkowski WASHINGTON, April 7 (Reuters) - The U.S. Treasury Department is planning to delay the release of any completed bank stress test results until after the first-quarter earnings season to avoid complicating stock market reaction, a source familiar with Treasury's discussions said on Tuesday. The Treasury is still talking about how results of the regulatory stress tests on the 19 largest U.S. banks will be released, and may disclose them as summary results that are not institution-specific, the source said." http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsnews/idINN0747118320090407?rpc=33 Next, Next, Step right up and get you taxpayer funds. Just amazing what we have become. Reported U.S. aid lifts life insurance stocks "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of U.S. life insurers rallied on Wednesday morning after a published report said the Treasury Department has decided to extend bailout funds to several struggling companies in the sector. According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the extension of the Troubled Asset Relief Program is expected to be announced in the next several days. Keeping life insurers on a solid footing is seen as crucial to maintaining confidence, the report said." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Life-insurance-stocks-rally-report/story.aspx?guid=%7BB28EF085%2D2491%2D42D6%2DBBB1%2DAF0B1D867855%7D

The G20 moves the world a step closer to a global currency The world is a step closer to a global currency, backed by a global central bank, running monetary policy for all humanity. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 2:06PM BST 03 Apr 2009 "A single clause in Point 19 of the communiqué issued by the G20 leaders amounts to revolution in the global financial order. "We have agreed to support a general SDR allocation which will inject $250bn (£170bn) into the world economy and increase global liquidity," it said. SDRs are Special Drawing Rights, a synthetic paper currency issued by the International Monetary Fund that has lain dormant for half a century. In effect, the G20 leaders have activated the IMF's power to create money and begin global "quantitative easing". In doing so, they are putting a de facto world currency into play. It is outside the control of any sovereign body. Conspiracy theorists will love it. ... http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/ambroseevans_pritchard/5096524/The-G20-moves-the-world-a-step-closer-to-a-global-currency.html Has the process to potentially replace the dollar as the world currency begun? I think we have stepped forward towards a new world currency. Weather or not it becomes reality is yet to be seen.