ragerunner

GDP contracts 3.8% as inventories limit downturn Fourth quarter marks worst performance for U.S. economy in nearly 29 years "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy contracted at a 3.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, Commerce Department data showed Friday -- a decline that would have been worse except that the government counts an unwanted buildup of goods on store shelves as growth." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-GDP-off-38-fourth/story.aspx?guid=%7B913CEBDA%2DAE34%2D48A8%2D84CC%2D80ECCBA1B6E6%7D This will get revised lower in the future. Just like almost all the GDP numbers have been over the last 2 years.

CincyDad, You just keep the laughs rolling!!!! :wink: Only in our wildest dreams would that be the outcome.

Sadly, (even moreso than the sadness induced by seeing Exodus twice) I'm inclined to agree with you. Of course if we do that, then we should demand repayment of the TARP money, as banks won't need the funds to bolster their balance sheet. Now that is funny.

Something tells me the 'government' will overpay for this bad debt. They will not write it down to its true value. The taxpayers will be paying for this in decades to come.

I think the FEDs and Wall Street have clearly shown that the legalities of an issue is irrelevant.

When will we finally get it? Stimulus to Nowhere? "John Norquist, President and CEO of the Congress for the New Urbanism, believes that President Obama should reconsider committing stimulus funds to decades-old freeway expansion projects and take transportation policy in a new direction. Facing the nation’s deepest economic crisis since the Great Depression and hearing from every quarter that the only thing worse than delay is timidity, President-elect Obama called on Congress weeks before his inauguration to draft stimulus package legislation that would kick start the economy and launch the new administration’s domestic agenda. Meeting the timeline, but hardly the spirit of boldness hard times require, the Obama administration and House Appropriations Committee produced a package that looks like it was designed by the outgoing Bush administration. It offers a few hopeful green gestures with tax credits for energy efficiency, but on transportation the Appropriations Committee package commits taxpayer billions to a status quo of lots of big highways and only modest amounts for trains, transit or local street networks that serve as high value settings for development and job creation. Heralded as a way to put the construction sector back on its feet, the transportation component of the bill offers a hidebound formula for spending money on the nation’s transportation system. The bill makes a relatively small investment in transit ($8 billion) and trains ($1 billion), while mostly passing the buck – or 30 billion bucks, to be precise – to state DoTs and their long lists of backordered highway projects. Obama gave highway officials much to hope for when he called his plan "the largest new investment in our national infrastructure since the creation of the federal highway system in the 1950s," but the incoming President and his congressional allies need to seriously consider whether putting most of their dollars in the superhighway basket really promotes the innovation, and more crucially the immediate economic activity, this country badly needs. Is "Shovel-Ready" Enough? State bureaucracies claim to have thousands of "shovel-ready" projects. But examining the list of "shovel ready" state projects at aashto.org you find a list of decades-old freeway expansion proposals, large-scale projects that according to FHWA estimates, only 27% will be under construction within a year . Intimately familiar with the realities of transportation funding deployment, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office offered cautionary advice to the Appropriations Committee on just this point. Even where construction can begin quickly, highway investments offer dubious long-term benefits. Among the projects likely to be submitted for stimulus funding are a multi-billion dollar widening of Louisville’s riverfront freeway, adding 75 feet to the route’s girth, and further separating downtown from the valuable Ohio River banks. Another $2 billion will be requested to widen and “modernize” Interstate 94 from Milwaukee all the way to the Illinois border. Though it won’t achieve any significant reductions in drive times, this investment is projected to add more than 200,000 new vehicle miles (and 80 tons of carbon emissions) per day. On down the roster, the "shovel ready" lists promote high-cost roads that add little or no value. Contrast that to the infrastructure of America's towns and cities, the setting for most of America's wealth and jobs. Their streets are even more badly in need of investment than highways – every winter storm opens new potholes (and new stimulus opportunities) – but they are nowhere to be seen in the stimulus package. Congress’s lack of commitment to streets could deny the nation a genuine "shovel ready" opportunity to put dollars in circulation almost immediately. What’s more, the right investments in streets, local transit and high-speed rail will address long-term constraints that are holding America back. A New Direction President Obama should insist that Congress move federal transportation policy in a new direction. He need only look to the Internet, employed to such definitive effect by his election campaign, for a telling example of how 21st century transportation systems should work. Internet traffic makes use of a network of linkages, breaking up large volumes of data into small packets and distributing them through a web of available nodes. It’s fast, and it’s reliable. The same model applied to transportation networks will allow all modes of traffic to flow over multiple redundant routes, making travel times quicker, driving, walking and bicycling easier, and transit service more viable. At the same time investment in streets will remove barriers to urban real estate development, promoting the proliferation of neighborhood amenities and leading, ultimately, to shorter commutes and fewer car trips. Barack Obama and Joe Biden recalled the whistlestop campaign of Harry Truman with their Ride to the Inauguration. Meanwhile the stimulus package working its way through Congress is sidetracked into a cul de sac of depressing holdover ideas about transportation in America." http://www.planetizen.com/node/37060

Looks like the FEDs are taking a page from Citicorp. Just take all the bad assets and put them in a 'new' bank and let it fail or let the taxpayers bail it out. I wonder how all the buyers of this bad paper are going to feel. It pretty much tells them they were suckers. The side effect is the banks no long have bad balance sheets, but I also think it sends a clear message that they don't have to worry about risk. It also sends a clear message to the investment world that extreme caution should be used when dealing with US companies because when the !?!?! hits the fan they will just through you under the bus. Maybe the car industry and others can use this model. Take all of your bad debt and spin if off into a FordGMChrysler company and let it go bankrupt. FINANCIAL STOCKS Financials soar on talk that 'bad bank' may fly "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Shares of U.S. banks posted strong gains Wednesday on reports that the Obama administration may adopt a plan to buy bad assets in the financial system and create a so-called bad bank to hold them." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Sector-soars-talk-bad-bank/story.aspx?guid=%7B77D177C6%2DF437%2D4D9B%2DA582%2D6AA3C4818920%7D

I truly hope you are wrong about the depression. But, there is no hiding that the economy is still plunging down the mountain.

YES!!! It is.

The layoff machine is really starting to roll. I feel for those losing their jobs. It more than just a numbers, its lives, families and much more. Caterpillar to slash 20,000 jobs Profit falls 32% in fourth quarter; 2009 sales expected to plunge 25% http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Caterpillar-posts-32-decline-quarterly/story.aspx?guid=%7B2A73EC41%2D37B9%2D4D1F%2D855C%2DF7ADCF45D311%7D Sprint to eliminate 8,000 jobs http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Sprint-eliminate-8000-jobs/story.aspx?guid=%7B3EC36575%2DAF50%2D4BDF%2DB387%2D8F50ACA28DB7%7D Home Depot to close Expo, slash jobs (5,000) http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Home-Depot-close-Expo-slash/story.aspx?guid=%7B87AE6FB7%2DB424%2D4E25%2D9703%2D27E90EF37E9C%7D Philips swings to first quarterly loss in five years Group sees little room for optimism, plans to cut 6,000 jobs http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Philips-cut-6000-jobs-after/story.aspx?guid=%7B7F29914D%2DCBB0%2D47C8%2D8B4B%2DA71208909CE1%7D

Flood of foreclosures: It's worse than you think Banks are moving slowly to list repossessed homes for sale, which could mean that housing inventory is even more bloated than current statistics indicate. "NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Housing might be in worse shape than we think. There is probably even more excess housing inventory gumming up the market than current statistics indicate, thanks to a wave of foreclosures that has yet to hit the market. The problem: Many foreclosed homes and other distressed properties that are now owned by banks have yet to be listed for sale. The volume of this so-called 'ghost inventory' could be substantial enough to depress already steeply falling prices when it does go on the market. ... http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/21/real_estate/ghost_inventory/index.htm?postversion=2009012316

If this move 'works' I could see more companies following.

This is one way to remove some nasty debt from your company. I would say Citi Holdings will simple go under or file for bankruptcy in the future. The surviving company will be Citicorp. I am surprised more companies have not done this, just create a new company and give it all of your bad paper and let it go under. The current share holders may or may not like it and the ones you owe debt to really will hate you, but.... Citigroup loses $8.3B, splits company in two "After reporting a fourth-quarter loss of $8.3 billion, financial giant Citigroup said it will reorganize the company into two businesses. The company announced that Citicorp will operate as a traditional banking business, and a separate business, Citi Holdings, will act as a holding company for risky assets, according to the Associated Press. The fourth-quarter loss amounted to $1.72 per share and compares to a year-ago loss of $1.99 per share, or $9.8 billion. The 2008 fourth quarter included a $3.9 billion gain on the sale of its German retail bank. ... http://cincinnati.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/stories/2009/01/12/daily72.html

Retail sales plunge 2.7% in December Weakest U.S. sales on record excluding auto sales "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Stung by weak demand and falling prices, U.S. retail sales plunged a seasonally adjusted 2.7% in December from November, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday. Excluding a 0.7% decline in auto sales, retail sales recorded their biggest drop since record-keeping began in the early 1990s, falling 3.1%." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/US-retail-sales-plunge-27/story.aspx?guid={7746B204-F4BB-4941-8769-47654E4A2902} Cost Plus in the Cincy area and Elder-Beerman's in Hamilton are just the first domino's in this region to fall down. There will be more, many more here in Cincy, in Ohio and across the US. Nortel files for bankruptcy protection Onetime Canadian giant hurt by recession, missteps "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nortel Networks Corp., once the largest company in Canada, filed for bankruptcy protection on Wednesday, victimized by the deepening economic slump." http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={D1118001-351B-464C-8F47-2FA18415C5A0}

Citi reportedly to unveil major re-organization Financial-supermarket strategy may be replaced by focus on banking "SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Citigroup Inc. will reportedly unveil a major re-organization that will end its efforts to build a global financial-services supermarket, according to media reports. Citi said earlier Tuesday that it's talking with Morgan Stanley about a combination of the two companies' brokerage businesses. The deal could be set up as a joint venture. Morgan Stanley may pay $2.5 billion to Citi for a majority stake and have the option to buy the rest of the unit later, reports say." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Citi-give-up-financial-supermarket/story.aspx?guid={47DFDEBB-1325-4B92-904C-F38B4588F5C0} I wonder how many 1,000s of employees are about to lose their jobs in the latest 'reorganization'?

Alcoa Reports First Loss in Six Years as Demand Falls (Update1) "Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, reported its first quarterly net loss in six years after prices and demand for the metal plunged. The fourth-quarter net loss of $1.19 billion, or $1.49 a share, compares with net income of $632 million, or 75 cents, a year earlier, New York-based Alcoa said today in a statement. Excluding some items, the loss was 28 cents a share. The average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 14 analysts was for a per-share loss of 5 cents. Sales fell 19 percent to $5.69 billion. Chief Executive Officer Klaus Kleinfeld is shutting down production, firing workers and trying to sell four units as the credit crisis cuts demand. Aluminum prices are near four-year lows as orders drop from automakers, builders and appliance manufacturers." http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTsCEahdqhB0&refer=home Alcoa is usually seen as a 'bell weather' for the earnings report season. Look out below.

Carnage continues with 524,000 jobs lost in Dec. Unemployment rate rises to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy lost 524,000 jobs in December, closing out the worst year for job losses since World War II, the Labor Department said Friday. Nearly 2.6 million jobs were lost in 2008, with 1.9 million destroyed in just the past four months, according to a survey of work places. It's the biggest job loss in any calendar year since 1945, when 2.75 million jobs were lost as the wartime economy was demobilized. The unemployment rate rose to 7.2%, the highest in 16 years. Unemployment increased by 632,000 to 11.1 million, according to the survey of households. That same household survey showed employment falling by 806,000 in December." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Carnage-continues-524000-jobs-lost/story.aspx?guid={F9716B93-2009-4F9D-A2CC-6890DA427BF2} January and Feb. numbers are going to be 'shocking'.

We have not seen the worst for the retailers yet. January, Feb. and March are going to be brutal. Add in all the store closing that will be happening and you have a very ugly picture.

Apparently light rail and mass transit is one thing. Maybe the average Ohioan (midwestern) should cut back on drinking and premartial sex and travel the world more. :wave:

Without going back through the tread, I believe the Government numbers have been worse than the ADP numbers over the last few months. Do you think we will hit the million a month mark?

Not a bad idea. It has been truly amazing, at times, to watch the attitudes of the wealthy on wall street through this financial/recession. They masterminded most of this mess but still feel they shouldn't have to pay any of the consequences.

Maybe not the death penalty, but life in prison should be assured. There are many others on Wall Street, etc... that deserve the same thing. Paulson should be one of the top candidates.

ADP shows 693,000 jobs lost in December "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. private-sector firms shed 693,000 jobs in December, far worse than expected, according to the ADP employment index released Wednesday. Employment in the services sector fell by 473,000, while employment in the goods-producing sectors fell by 220,000. Large firms cut 91,000 jobs, medium-sized firms cut 321,000 jobs and small firms cut 281,000 jobs. "Sharply falling employment at medium- and small-size businesses clearly indicates that the recession has now spread well beyond manufacturing and housing-related activities," said economists for Macroeconomics Advisers in a press release." http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/ADP-shows-693000-jobs-lost/story.aspx?guid={11A2598F-2D9D-48D2-A934-144BA5E1BB9C} These numbers are starting to get close to the 'scary' levels. I think we will see even larger numbers over the next few months. This is far from being over.

Very nice pics. Lafayette and West Lafayette are really nice towns with some good urban areas.

Outstanding tour!!!!!!! Denver is a great city and has put many of the important pieces of urban life together. I am very excited to start my new job in the Denver area in two weeks. Mass transit, mountains, and 300 days of sunshine.