ragerunner

It's a long read but well worth it. It shows how TARP was nothing in the overall scheme of things and that the bailouts continue today and will continue into the future. As I have tried to explain in the past, if you are focusing on TARP you are missing the real bailout including the FEDs actions. Thomas Jefferson - "I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs." Secret and Lies of the Bailout "The federal rescue of Wall Street didn’t fix the economy – it created a permanent bailout state based on a Ponzi-like confidence scheme. And the worst may be yet to come" "It was all a lie – one of the biggest and most elaborate falsehoods ever sold to the American people. We were told that the taxpayer was stepping in – only temporarily, mind you – to prop up the economy and save the world from financial catastrophe. What we actually ended up doing was the exact opposite: committing American taxpayers to permanent, blind support of an ungovernable, unregulatable, hyperconcentrated new financial system that exacerbates the greed and inequality that caused the crash, and forces Wall Street banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup to increase risk rather than reduce it." "But within days of passage, the Fed and the Treasury unilaterally decided to abandon the planned purchase of toxic assets in favor of direct injections of billions in cash into companies like Goldman and Citigroup. Overnight, Section 109 was unceremoniously ditched, and what was pitched as a bailout of both banks and homeowners instantly became a bank-only operation – marking the first in a long series of moves in which bailout officials either casually ignored or openly defied their own promises with regard to TARP." "Congress was furious. "We've been lied to," fumed Rep. David Scott, a Democrat from Georgia. Rep. Elijah Cummings, a Democrat from Maryland, raged at transparently douchey TARP administrator (and Goldman banker) Neel Kashkari, calling him a "chump" for the banks." "Even worse, the $700 billion in TARP loans ended up being dwarfed by more than $7.7 trillion in secret emergency lending that the Fed awarded to Wall Street – loans that were only disclosed to the public after Congress forced an extraordinary one-time audit of the Federal Reserve. The extent of this "secret bailout" didn't come out until November 2011, when Bloomberg Markets, which went to court to win the right to publish the data, detailed how the country's biggest firms secretly received trillions in near-free money throughout the crisis." "America's six largest banks – Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – now have a combined 14,420 subsidiaries, making them so big as to be effectively beyond regulation. A recent study by the Kansas City Fed found that it would take 70,000 examiners to inspect such trillion-dollar banks with the same level of attention normally given to a community bank." "So what exactly did the bailout accomplish? It built a banking system that discriminates against community banks, makes Too Big to Fail banks even Too Bigger to Failier, increases risk, discourages sound business lending and punishes savings by making it even easier and more profitable to chase high-yield investments than to compete for small depositors. The bailout has also made lying on behalf of our biggest and most corrupt banks the official policy of the United States government." Read more: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/secret-and-lies-of-the-bailout-20130104#ixzz2HJBWHvrC Follow us: @rollingstone on Twitter | RollingStone on Facebook

B. of A. settlement moves it, others higher "Bank of America said on Monday that it has reached agreements with Fannie Mae to settle all repurchase and certain other claims surrounding almost all of the mortgage loans originated by Countrywide Financial Corp and Bank of America National Association from 2000 through 2008." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/b-of-a-settlement-moves-it-others-higher-2013-01-07 U.S. public schools cut 11,000 jobs in December "WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Local U.S. governments cut jobs for the fourth straight month in December, including 11,000 in public schools, dragging down the nation's fragile economic recovery, jobs data showed on Friday." http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-usa-economy-jobs-statesbre9030v7-20130104,0,2751231.story Liberty Medical says it will lay off more employees "PORT ST. LUCIE — Liberty Medical Supply will lay off 260 employees next month, according to a Wednesday notice." http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2013/jan/02/liberty-medical-lays-off-more-employees/

Break even point for just the incoming workforce. Better than being negative but we are just stuck in the employment category.

Is it just talk? Over the last five years they like to talk 'tough' but their actions have said other wise. Fed says it’s running out of bullets Commentary: FOMC signals that bond purchases may stop WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — For the first time since the financial crisis started five years ago, the Federal Reserve has at last made its first signal that its extraordinary loose monetary policy will start to get tougher. "But, the minutes show, the central bank is starting to say, enough is enough. Of the crowd that supported bond buys, a few say they should continue until the end of the year, and several said it could stop, or slow, well before then." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-says-its-running-out-of-bullets-2013-01-03 I would be surprised if we don't see another round of retail store closings being annouced in the next few months. Retail Workers Bear Brunt Of Sluggish Holiday Sales "Recent data suggest holiday retail business increased this year, but just barely. An estimate by MasterCard Inc.'s SpendingPulse unit shows sales grew 0.7 percent. That's the slowest rate since 2008, when retailers were feeling the worst of the recession. When profits shrink like that, seasonal labor costs are the easiest cost to cut, says Diane Swonk, an economist at Mesirow Financial. "The problem is, yes, these are disposable workers. I hate to say that, because I don't mean that about the people, but the reality is, when you got to cut hours, you do cut hours," Swonk says." http://www.npr.org/2012/12/30/168283255/retail-workers-bear-brunt-of-sluggish-holiday-sales US retailers report weakest holiday sales since 2008 "WASHINGTON – U.S. holiday retail sales this year were the weakest since 2008, when the nation was in a deep recession. In 2012, the shopping season was disrupted by bad weather and consumers' rising uncertainty about the economy." Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/12/26/us-holiday-retail-sales-growth-weakest-since-2008/#ixzz2H1p5V85o

2 of the indexes went up, new orders and inventory. The other 5 indexes fell including employment to a 3 year low. The new order one is good news but the inventory one continues to show some real issues. Chicago PMI climbs to 51.6% in December "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 51.6% in December from 50.4% in November to mark the best performance in four months." "The latest report suggests some businesses took advantage of expiring investment credits, but they also pulled back on hiring because of worries about the fiscal cliff." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/chicago-pmi-climbs-to-516-in-december-2012-12-28 Pending Sales of Existing U.S. Homes Climb for Third Month "The index of pending home sales climbed 1.7 percent to 106.4, the highest reading since April 2010, after a revised 5 percent gain in October, the National Association of Realtors reported today in Washington." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-28/pending-sales-of-existing-u-s-homes-climb-for-third-month-1-.html

The 'machine' is making a full court press. So what the chances the 'across-the-board sequestration' actually takes place and remains in place? Any guesses? Defense Industry Seeks Relief as Fiscal Cliff Draws Near "The defense industry is urging Congress to delay the fight over taxes and focus on avoiding the automatic budget cuts that begin in six days. The Aerospace Industries Association, which represents more than 300 aerospace and defense companies and their suppliers, said policy makers must find a way to avoid the across-the-board cuts known as sequestration even if they can’t resolve broader conflicts over tax rates and entitlement programs such as Medicare. “Risking American lives and livelihoods for political leverage is wrong,” said Marion Blakey, the group’s president and chief executive officer, in a statement." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-27/defense-industry-seeks-relief-as-fiscal-cliff-draws-near.html

You mean doomer comments like this? :wink: A few KJP Quotes: "Like I said in the Cincinnati Streetcar thread, my sense of humor isn't what it used to be. I have come to expect the worst in people these days, and sadly my expectations are often met." Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,16869.0.html#ixzz2GGt1wSUN "My belief is that, since cheap and reliable energy is important to modern society, then we need to get off the oil standard as quickly as an affordable transition will allow. Oil WAS a cheap and reliable source of energy, but not anymore. It was a short-term high from substance abuse in the thousands-of-years history of mankind thus far. A sudden shift to other, longer-term, and renewable sources will be painful, but a shift must be made nonetheless. Hopefully this shift can be made on mankind's timetable, rather than on oil's." Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,5087.1260.html#ixzz2GGuK9MGT "Bigger loss for United Continental as fuel cost jumps" April 21, 2011 Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,15826.245.html#ixzz2GGx9wysZ ^Looks like a headline that was missed for this thread? :wink: Not sure this thread's comments are much different. Just replace cheap oil with the word QE/money press/unsustainable debt addiction. Our dependency on this 'cheap oil and cheap money' has clearly added to our unsustainable economic development patterns that are affecting the economy's ability to move forward in a meaningful way. So what does the FED do about it, they pump billions/trillion+ into trying to re-inflate the suburban home buying market at price points that are still not in balance with income levels.

The video is about 10 minutes. Worth the watch up to about minute 6, then it becomes less about data and more about politics. Of course Canada has its own massive housing bubble and debt load to deal with.

Durable-goods orders jump in November "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Orders for long-lasting goods jumped in November, in data suggesting a surprisingly strong and broad increase in corporate spending, according to a report released Friday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-jump-in-november-2012-12-21 Consumer sentiment tumbles in December "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — U.S. consumers’ sentiment tumbled in December, according to data released Friday, with concerns about the fiscal cliff more than offsetting lower gasoline prices and higher stocks." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-tumbles-in-december-2012-12-21 With Farm Bill Stalled, Consumers May Face Soaring Milk Prices "WASHINGTON — Forget the fiscal crisis and the automatic budget cuts. Come Jan. 1, there is a threat that milk prices could rise to $6 to $8 a gallon if Congress does not pass a new farm bill that amends farm policy dating back to the Truman presidency." http://www.nytimes.com/2012/12/21/us/milk-prices-could-double-as-farm-bill-stalls.html?_r=0

Third-quarter U.S. growth revised higher "3.1% growth rate fastest since fourth quarter of 2011 WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy grew more quickly than previously stated in the July-to-September quarter due to stronger trade, faster health-care spending and increased local government construction, the Commerce Department estimated Thursday." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/third-quarter-us-growth-revised-higher-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown Initial jobless claims climb 17,000 "Four-week average at lowest level in two months The Labor Department said Thursday that first-time jobless claims rose to a seasonally adjusted 361,000 in the week ended Dec. 15, versus a slightly upwardly revised 344,000 in the prior week. That’s almost exactly in line with the MarketWatch-compiled economist consensus of 360,000." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/initial-jobless-claims-climb-17000-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown Leading economic index drops in November "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The U.S. economy looks to be slowing, the Conference Board said Thursday as it reported its leading economic index dropped in November." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/leading-economic-index-drops-in-november-2012-12-20?dist=lcountdown Fed’s $4 Trillion Rescue Helps Hedge Fund as Savers Hurt "The near-zero interest rate the Federal Reserve charges financial firms, as well as securities purchases that will balloon the central bank’s balance sheet to almost $4 trillion next year, have made it easier for Narula’s $1.6 billion fund to thrive and more difficult for Sanchez, a former college library director, to enjoy retirement. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s efforts to energize the U.S. economy since 2008 have been credited with rousing the housing market from a six-year funk, lowering the jobless rate and putting more money in the pockets of both mortgage lenders and borrowers. At the same time, Fed policy has been blamed for starving money-savers of income and boosting certain asset prices, widening the gap between the rich and the rest of the country, said Joseph E. Stiglitz, the Nobel Prize-winning Columbia University economist." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-20/fed-s-4-trillion-rescue-helps-hedge-fund-as-savers-hurt.html

By the time this is over the fines will not even be close to covering the losses. The banks involved will come out on the positive end financial of this illegal activity. Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Libor Loss Tops $3 Billion in Audit "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac may have lost more than $3 billion tied to the rigging of a key interest rate, according to internal memos by the auditor of the Federal Housing Finance Agency." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-19/fannie-mae-freddie-mac-libor-loss-tops-3-billion-auditor-says.html

I think its a good thing that people have decided to make family time more important than another flat screen tv. Retailers may see disappointing holiday sales ShopperTrak cites school shooting, Sandy and fiscal cliff as it cuts holiday forecast "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A leading tracker of shopper traffic on Wednesday cut its seasonal sales forecast, saying the holiday selling period would have “a different tone” in the aftermath of the school shootings in Connecticut, superstorm Sandy and as talks drag on over avoiding the fiscal cliff. “It’s a change in mind-set,” said Bill Martin, founder of ShopperTrak, which follows shopper traffic in malls. “Gifts may not be as important as spending time with family. This holiday season is just not going to be as robust.” http://www.marketwatch.com/story/retailers-may-see-disappointing-holiday-sales-2012-12-19?dist=afterbell

Its typical for home starts to drop this time of the year. U.S. housing starts fall 3% in November "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Construction on new U.S. homes fell 3% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 861,000, led by declines in the West and Northeast, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected housing starts to fall to a rate of 865,000. See economic calendar. The U.S. starts rate for October was downwardly revised to 888,000 from a prior estimate of 894,000." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-housing-starts-fall-3-in-november-2012-12-19-81034710?dist=lcountdown Bless their hearts, I'm sure the rigging, fraud and bribes were for a good cause. That tinfoil hat just keeps getting smaller. These things that are coming to light are not just little oops. We are talking drug cartels, manipulation of markets, fraud, bribes, and breaking of international sanctions. Should make one wonder what we don't know about. I think this brings the total in illegal fines, that have been announced in the last few weeks, to about $4 Billion. UBS fined £940m for rigging Libor, fraud and bribes "Swiss banking giant UBS has agreed to pay £940m to regulators in order to settle charges of manipulating Libor interest rates, fraud and paying bribes to brokers." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/9754614/UBS-fined-940m-for-rigging-Libor-fraud-and-bribes.html Medicis lays off 200 in Valley http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/business/articles/2012/12/17/20121217medicis-lays-off-200-in-valley.html?nclick_check=1 Liberty Medical Supplies layoffs: 250 Port St. Lucie employees to lose their jobs Read more: http://www.wptv.com/dpp/news/region_st_lucie_county/port_st_lucie/liberty-medical-supplies-layoffs-250-port-st-lucie-employees-to-lose-their-jobs#ixzz2FVyUxq1z Pfizer to cut 600 jobs as Lipitor sales decline: report http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/19/us-pfizer-jobs-idUSBRE8BI04C20121219

We will have to wait and see if the offical data will end up showing a recession next year, but the economic impacts that are now happening will make it feel like a recession for months to come. The official numbers are really going to hing on how much they can pump up home construction and sales over the next year. Because they will not be able to rely on inventory growth to continue to push GDP up much longer. Why a recession may be coming no matter what fiscal-cliff deal is reached "The recession signal is being sent from the latest U.S. current account deficit report released earlier Tuesday. According to the data, imports are now down two months in a row having fallen 8.4% in the third quarter and 2% in the prior quarter. This is a rare event and has definitely raises the recessionary “red flag,” according to Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. When the economy weakens, imports weaken rather quickly, Brusca notes. The last time imports declined for two quarters was in 2009, the end of a four-quarter slide in imports during the Great Recession. Fewer imports is a sign that domestic demand is faltering. A recession is “a real risk,” Brusca said." http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2012/12/18/why-a-recession-may-be-coming-no-matter-what-fiscal-cliff-deal-is-reached/

Home builder confidence highest since 2006 "The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose two points to a seasonally adjusted level of 47 — matching estimates from analysts polled by MarketWatch — from a downwardly revised 45 in November. A prior estimate for November pegged the level at 46. See economic calendar. Despite eight months of gains, the confidence gauge remains below the key reading of 50. Readings over 50 indicate that more builders see sales conditions as good than poor." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-builder-confidence-highest-since-2006-2012-12-18?dist=lcountdown Who Needs Global Trade Anyway: FedEx Shipments Imply Subzero GDP "Bloomberg: "The level of FedEx package shipments began to slump as early as the first quarter of 2012 and now appears to be signaling weaker economic conditions for 2013. In late March, FedEx made mention of cooling conditions, with CFO Alan Graf noting the economy was not as strong as the company hoped it would be a year earlier. According to Fred Smith, FedEx CEO, “Fundamentally, what’s happening is that exports around the world have contracted and the policy choices in Europe and the United States and China are having an effect on global trade." http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-18/who-needs-global-trade-anyway-fedex-shipments-imply-subzero-gdp

NY Empire Manufacturing Index Plummets "The Empire State index fell to negative 8.1, a drop from the negative 5.2 seen in November, indicating the downturn broadened to touch more firms in the New York Fed’s latest survey. It marked the fifth month in a row that the index has been in negative territory. Readings below zero indicate activity is declining." "The drop in the index came as a surprise. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected the headline index to rise to 5.2 as activity recovered in the aftermath of regional disruptions caused by Hurricane Sandy." http://forexblog.oanda.com/20121217/ny-empire-manufacturing-index-plummets/ Debt Crisis - Draghi asserts ECB can ask "any question" of all eurozone banks -live "Mr Draghi has asserted the European Central Bank's ultimate power over all 6,000 eurozone banks, despite it only having direct supervision over 150 lenders." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9749598/Debt-Crisis-Draghi-asserts-ECB-can-ask-any-question-of-all-eurozone-banks-live.html

Thanks for the chart and all the links. Great information.

If you don't need food or energy you are good to go. Consumer Prices in U.S. Decline More Than Forecast "The cost of living fell more than forecast in November as energy prices dropped, a sign U.S. inflation remains in check. The 0.3 percent decrease in the consumer-price index was the first drop since May and followed a 0.1 percent gain the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The median estimate of 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 percent drop. The core index, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed less than projected." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-14/consumer-prices-in-u-s-decline-more-than-forecast-in-november.html Britain bucks trend as EU car sales continue to fall "Britain was the only major EU market to report a rise in new car registrations in November, as sales in southern Europe continued to plummet and even powerhouse Germany stalled." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/9744481/Britain-bucks-trend-as-EU-car-sales-continue-to-fall.html Spanish house prices suffer severe fall By Miles Johnson in Madrid "Spanish house prices tumbled in the third quarter as stagnant demand and an continuing shortage of mortgage credit accelerated the deflation of the country’s housing bubble." High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail. Email [email protected] to buy additional rights. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a35c9bf0-45e5-11e2-b7ba-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz2F2u6VG8Q

U.S. retail sales rebound in November Demand strong for autos, broad range of consumer goods "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — American consumers didn’t go shopping much in October, but they made up for it in November. Retail sales rose 0.3% last month after declining 0.3% in October, the Commerce Department said Thursday. And sales were stronger if a big decline in spending at gas stations is factored out. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast retail sales to rise by 0.4%." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rebound-in-november-2012-12-13 Jobless claims drop below pre-Sandy levels "Claims decline 29,000 to 343,000 and sit near a four-year low Initial jobless claims declined by 29,000 to a seasonally adjusted 343,000 in the week ended Dec. 8, the Labor Department said Thursday. Claims from two weeks ago were revised upward to 372,000 from an initial reading of 370,000." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-drop-below-pre-sandy-levels-2012-12-13 Debt Crisis: Greece secures €49.1bn bail out cash: live "The Eurogroup of 17 eurozone finance ministers has approved of Greece receiving its next tranche of bail out cash of €49.1bn, despite the country's bond buyback programme missing debt reduction targets." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/debt-crisis-live/9740842/Debt-Crisis-Greece-secures-49.1bn-bail-out-cash-live.html And a quick look at some job cut annoucements this week. WebMD to cut 14 percent of workforce to reduce expenses "(Reuters) - Health information website WebMD Health Corp said it will cut around 250 jobs, or 14 percent of its workforce, to reduce costs." http://wtaq.com/news/articles/2012/dec/11/webmd-to-cut-250-jobs-to-reduce-expenses/ Samson laying off 100 workers, 70 in Tulsa Read more from this Tulsa World article at http://www.tulsaworld.com/business/article.aspx?subjectid=49&articleid=20121211_49_0_Smoeor392522 Barclays may cut up to 2,000 investment banking jobs: WSJ Read more: http://www.foxbusiness.com/news/2012/12/13/barclays-may-cut-up-to-2000-investment-banking-jobs-wsj/#ixzz2EwjjZ1C7 California prison health care receiver issues lay off notices "California Correctional Health Care Services has issued lay off warnings to 2,200 of its employees with a goal of axing 829 positions early next year." Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/the_state_worker/2012/12/california-prison-health-care-receiver-issues-lay-off-notices.html#storylink=cpy

Wow, somebody from a MSM outlet finally wrote an article about this. That tinfoil hat is getting smaller. Too big to fail means too big for jail "There’s a reason top executives haven’t gone to jail for engineering the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Some bankers are just too big to convict. The latest example came Tuesday with British global banking giant HSBC’s agreement to pay a record $1.9 billion – about six weeks’ worth of the bank’s profits - to settle money-laundering charges with U.S. prosecutors. The deal ends a three-year probe into accusations of a widespread, multi-year string of illegal transactions violating sanctions against Iran and Latin American drug lords. Five years after a wave of risky mortgage bets cratered the banking system and sent the global economy into recession, the banks behind the mess have paid or agreed to pay billions of dollars fines and restitution. But not a single senior executive from the biggest banks has gone to jail." http://www.nbcnews.com/business/too-big-fail-means-too-big-jail-1C7555748#/business/too-big-fail-means-too-big-jail-1C7555748

In other words the economy stinks and the FEDs must increase their efforts to keep it afloat. I guess a trillion here and there doesn't get you what it use too. Fed boosts QE and ties rates to unemployment level "The central bank replaced a more modest stimulus program due to expire at year-end with a fresh round of Treasury purchases that will increase its balance sheet. It committed to monthly purchases of $45bn in Treasuries on top of the $40bn per month in mortgage-backed bonds it started buying in September. In a surprise move, the Fed also adopted numerical thresholds for policy, a step that had not been expected until early next year. In particular, the Fed said it will likely keep official rates near zero for as long as unemployment remains above 6.5pc, inflation between one and two years ahead is projected to be no more than 2.5pc, and long-term inflation expectations remain contained." http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9740740/Fed-boosts-QE-and-ties-rates-to-unemployment-level.html

Here is a quick look at the Baltic Dry Index. The cost/demand for shipping continues to fall. "The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is a number issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides "an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baltic_Dry_Index http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-12/baltic-dry-plunges-over-8-overnight-most-2008 Global Shipbuilding Outlook – 45% of Shipyards Have No Orders Post 2012 "The downturn has been felt more in the commercial shipbuilding industry where demand tends to be driven by fixed asset investments and growth in global trade. Global commercial ship orders were down 48% YoY in the first nine months of 2012 and order backlog fell to half of the level in first half of 2008." http://gcaptain.com/global-shipbuilding-outlook-global/

Libor news. Three arrested in SFO Libor-rigging investigation "Three men have been arrested at their homes by the City of London Police as part of a criminal investigation connected to the alleged manipulation of Libor." "The unnamed men, all British nationals, aged 33, 41 and 47, were taken into police custody at addresses in Surrey and Essex as part of a Serious Fraud Office investigation into interest rate manipulation. In a statement the SFO said: “Three men, aged 33, 41 and 47, have been arrested and taken to a London police station for interview in connection with the investigation into the manipulation of LIBOR. The men are all British nationals currently living in the United Kingdom.” http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/libor-scandal/9737068/Three-arrested-in-SFO-Libor-rigging-investigation.html

Those shelves are getting pretty heavy in the warehouses. U.S. wholesale inventories climb 0.6% in October "WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. wholesale inventories rose 0.6% in October, while wholesale sales fell 1.2%, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. At October's sales pace, the inventory-to-sales ratio increased to 1.22 from 1.19 in the prior month. Inventories of durable goods increased 1.0% in October." http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-inventories-climb-06-in-october-2012-12-11?dist=lcountdown December Report: Small-Business Owner Confidence Plunges More than Five Points One of the lowest optimism readings in survey history “Something bad happened in November—and based on the NFIB survey data, it wasn’t merely Hurricane Sandy. The storm had a significant impact on the economy, no doubt, but it is very clear that a stunning number of owners who expect worse business conditions in six months had far more to do with the decline in small-business confidence." http://www.nfib.com/research-foundation/surveys/small-business-economic-trends October US Exports Plunge By Most Since January 2009 As Trade Deficit With China Hits Record "The boost to GDP from the declining US trade deficit is over. While the September trade deficit number was revised further lower, to $40.3 billion from $41.5 previously, October saw a pick up to $42.2 billion, slightly less than the expected $42.7 billion, but a headwind to Q4 GDP already. As a result, expect a modest boost to Q3 GDP in its final revision, even as Q4 GDP continues to contract below its consensus of sub stall-speed ~1%. The reason for the decline: a 3.6% decline in exports of goods and services." http://ewallstreeter.com/october-us-exports-plunge-by-most-since-january-as-trade-deficit-with-china-hits-record-8061/# Here is some tinfoil hat crap. Is it still tinfoil hat if they admit it and are fined for it? Standard Chartered, HSBC, Barclays and Libor has just begun. Drug barons, Iran, manipulation of Libor and money laudering. I smell another hollywood movie in the works. Looks like about $3.3 billion in fines so far. Libor will end up making these fines look like childs play. Greed has no bounds. HSBC to pay £1.2bn over Mexico scandal "News of bank's agreement comes hours after Standard Chartered admitted settlement with US regulator over Iran" "HSBC is expected to admit on Tuesday it has settled allegations of running money for Mexican drug barons for a larger than expected $1.9bn (£1.2bn), barely 24 hours after close rival Standard Chartered admitted paying $670m (£415m) in penalties to US regulators to settle allegations it broke sanctions on Iran." "We have had Standard Chartered and now this and we still have more Libor cases to come." US authorities are investigating banks involved in the alleged manipulation of London's Libor, the key measure for setting loan rates around the world." "Britain's banks are braced for fines following the £290m penalty slapped on Barclays – now vastly exceeded by the amounts levied by US regulators for breaching sanctions and laundering money." "The fines on Standard Chartered follow accusations that lax systems left the US financial system vulnerable to "drug kingpins" and terrorists. Standard Chartered is paying $327m to the US Federal Reserve, the US justice department and the New York district attorney, it was announced yesterday, following a settlement of $340m in August with the New York department of financial services." http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/dec/10/standard-chartered-settle-iran-sanctions Additional debt that is backed by the US Government (FEDs). Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying "The Federal Reserve will amplify record accommodation tomorrow by announcing $45 billion in monthly Treasury buying that will push its balance sheet almost to $4 trillion, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists." http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-11/fed-seen-pumping-up-assets-to-4-trillion-in-new-buying.html

Japan revised GDP signals economy in recession "Analysts expect another quarter of contraction in the final three months of this year due to sluggish exports to China, keeping the Bank of Japan under pressure to loosen monetary policy as early as this month." http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/10/us-japan-economy-idUSBRE8B900W20121210?feedType=RSS&virtualBrandChannel=11563 China’s Trade Surplus Drops To $19.6 Billion In November: Official Data "According to the data released Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the country’s trade surplus shrank to $19.6 billion in November, against $32 billion in October and below analysts’ expectation of $25.7 billion. China’s exports rose 2.9 percent in November down from 11.6 percent increase in October and below the analysts’ expectation of 9 percent increase." http://www.ibtimes.com/chinas-trade-surplus-drops-196-billion-november-official-data-930840 Market Savior? Stocks Might Be 50% Lower Without Fed "Theoretically, the S&P 500 would be more than 50 percent lower—at the 600 level—if the bullish price action preceding Fed announcements was excluded, the study showed. Posted on the New York Fed’s web site Wednesday, the study sought out to explain why equities receive such a high premium over less risky assets such as bonds." "The chart shows the effect to be significantly pronounced in the aftermath of the tech bubble when Greenspan re-inflated stock and housing prices by slashing rates. It widens even further in the period since the financial crisis of 2008 as the market became beholden to the Fed’s use of its balance sheet to add liquidity to the market." http://www.cnbc.com/id/48165921/Market_Savior_Stocks_Might_Be_50_Lower_Without_Fed