ragerunner

Oil could reach $90, if OPEC maintains current supply NEW YORK: U.S. crude price could top 90 US dollars a barrel this autumn and hit 95 dollars by the end of the year if OPEC keeps oil production capped at current levels, Goldman Sachs said in a report issued on Monday. US oil prices have risen to near 74 dollars per barrel, driven this month by higher demand and lower supplies, the report said, pointed out that such fundamentals could tighten further unless key OPEC members hike output. "We believe an increase in Saudi Arabian, Kuwaiti and UAE (United Arab Emirate) production by the end of the summer is critical to avoid prices spiking above 90 dollars a barrel this autumn," the report stated. OPEC agreed last year to lower output by 1.7 million barrels per day (bpd), and Goldman said global oil production is down about 1 million bpd from last summer''s levels. Disappointing output growth from nonـOPEC producers also helped tighten supplies, Goldman said, adding global demand was up by 1 million bpd from yearـago levels. "Our estimates show that keeping OPEC production at current levels and assuming normal weather this coming winter, total petroleum inventories would fall by over 150 million barrels or 6.5 percent by the end of the year, which would push prices to 95 dollars a barrel without a demand response," the report forecast. A decision by OPEC to open the taps could take five to 10 dollars off the price of a barrel of crude as some speculators exit the market, although the fall might be brief. "Such a pullback would likely prove temporary as long as global economic growth remains strong, and the consequent reduction in oil spare capacity would increase the market vulnerability to unexpected oil supply disruptions," Goldman said.ـ Reuters http://www.alwatan.com.kw/Default.aspx?MgDid=525042&pageId=323 Now these types of numbers might make the average American change its driving habits and over a sustained period even demand mass transit.

Not doubting you or your friend, but I would love to see some official documentation and, more importantly, some official explanations why that is the case. We can all speculate here as to the reasons why, and probably come up with some pretty accurate stuff, but until we hear it from the horses' mouths (do horses speak??), we'll still be left wanting... Commercial building brisk; home construction slows Butler County issues half the new-home permits it did last year, following national trend. By Tim Tresslar Staff Writer Monday, July 02, 2007 "Developers sought fewer single-family home permits in Butler County in May than they did a year ago, while the pace of commercial building remained brisk. In May, the county issued permits for 55 single-family homes, versus 108 a year ago and 150 in May 2005." http://www.journal-news.com/hp/content/oh/story/news/business/2007/07/02/hjn070207permits.html Here is a recent article on Butler County's home building permits. Permits issued in May were down 50% from 2006 and down 75% from 2005. I am sure Warren County and most of the other counties in the metro have very similar numbers. I recently talked with a major engineering firm in the Cincy area and they said they have NO housing subdivision being planned at this time. WOW!!!! I wish I could say its because people are moving back towards the city and away from Sububia, but I think currently is just a problem of overbuilding, high housing prices, increasing interest rates, BK and tightening loan standards. I still think their will be a movement towards the urban cities as gas prices get out of control, but gas prices are not at that point yet.

Great news for the Columbus area.

I think there is a big difference between what Disney has discussed (themed hotels and indoor entertainment facilities) and buying regional amusement and theme parks. The work that would need to go on for Disney to bring these properties up to their level of experience and service (even if they don't go for the same theming and ride options) would be huge. I still say most theme park companies like Busch, Silver Dollar, or Disney would only be interested in two or three of CF parks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-oil-falls-as-traders-lock-in-profit-from-recent-gains Crude supplies fall by 1.4 mln brls in latest week By Polya Lesova Last Update: 10:44 AM ET Jul 11, 2007 "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude supplies fell by 1.4 million barrels to 352.6 million barrels for the week ended July 6, the Energy Department said Wednesday. Crude supplies had been expected to rise. Motor gasoline supplies rose by 1.2 million barrels to 205.6 million barrels in the latest week. Distillate supplies rose by 0.8 million barrels to 122.4 million barrels over that period. Refinery activity improved to 90.2% from 90.0% in the previous week. Following the news, crude for August delivery fell 11 cents at $72.70 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Before the release of the data, crude was down 50 cents on Nymex. Also on Nymex, August reformulated gasoline was last down 2.08 cents at $2.3488 a gallon. August heating oil fell 0.64 cent at $2.1175 a gallon." We better not get a hurricane this year or crude and gas prices will go through the roof.

Drop them off at the lifestyle center.

Actually, I am not that big of a Cedar Fair fan. They run a good amusement park but the are horrible at trying to run a theme park. I have always dreamed of KI being bought by Universal or more appropriated Busch. I think KI could fit into the Busch system without a major overhaul. Change out Nick with Sesame Street and the Land of the Dragons, add the Clydedale's and a B&M (along with better food, landscaping, theming, and retail). If Tussaud's would buy them then they would be owned by Blackstone since they bought Tussaud's in March.

Really. I hope CF doesn't end up like Six Flags did Already done. Ironically, they BOTH bought Geauga Lake. I would not be suprised if they try and unload a few parks by the end of the year Michigan Adventure, anyone? Carowinds? This would probably mean they would have to unload the parks with very high values, (Kings Island, Knotts Berry Farm, or Canada's Wonderland). They definately aren't letting go of those, as those are the money-maker parks. Look for the smaller ones to let go, unless they want to do the whole "restructuring with small parks" thing and destroy ALL THE BIG PARKS INTO A BALL OF TERROR and keep Valleyfair! and Dorney Park. Bah. Or they may find that unloading one or two big parks (which might actually have an interested buyer or two) can get them out of the financial mess. This would allow them to be what they were before the Paramount park buy. Cedar Point and some other midsize to smaller park chain (excluding KBF).

Blackstone has shown a lot of interest in the theme park industry. They own 50% of Universal Orlando, all the Legoland parks and many parks in europe including Alton Towers. I think CF just took on to much debt with the Paramount buy (they basically needed everything to go just perfect to make the debt work). I would guess that their books are showing some major 'challenges' for them to try this in mid season (They may be concerned that by the end of the season their book value may even be less). I hope CF doesn't end up like Six Flags did, but this may be the first sign of a similar problem. I would not be suprised if they try and unload a few parks by the end of the year, if they can't find a buyer for the company. This would allow them to get some much need cash and their might be a few theme park buyers that would be willing to buy a park or two. This would probably mean they would have to unload the parks with very high values, (Kings Island, Knotts Berry Farm, or Canada's Wonderland).

Forget my comment above. If the current plan that is on their website is what they are calling 'mixed use' then its a total piece of crap. Everthing is seperated, not integrated and mostly just big box retail sites along with a suburban apartment complex with your typical sububan office park with a sea of parking. I keep hoping a developer will finally build a real mixed use lifestyle center in the Cincy area instead of all the trashy developments that they call a modern lifestyle, mixed use development.

I need to check the plans again, but I believe most of the big box stores are in a strip center on the southside of the highway while the mixed use project is located on the northside of the highway. If this is true, then the mixed use part is some 'future' development and the large big box projects is what is currently under construction. Developers are really good at this. They dangle a decent looking mixed use project infront of the community in hopes that they overlook the crappy strip power center across the road. Then they build the power center and return to the community in the future with a story about how they are having trouble getting the mixed use project off the ground and request to modify the plans for the mixed use center into some really crappy sprawl development. I hope I wrong. We shall see.

I would agree, the suburban mall era is starting to come to an end.

IEA Warns Of Impending Oil, Natural Gas Supply Crunch In a dire forecast, the Paris-based International Energy Agency is warning of an impending crunch in the supply of oil and natural gas needed to power world economic growth in coming years. The IEA is the energy watchdog of the world's 26 most-advanced economies, and its pessimistic assessment is contained its latest annual medium-term forecast to 2012, which was released early Monday. The agency expects oil supply to be tighter in coming years than it had previously forecast, with little prospect of relief except a possible easing should world economic growth falter. (END) Dow Jones Newswires http://www.cattlenetwork.com/content.asp?contentid=143047 Four years is not a very long time to change our building and transportation habits and increase mass transit. Something tells me the US and a lot of the world is going to have to learn the hard way.

Glad to see some Indy talk jocks could help Cincy out. :wink:

Editorial Don't be left at the station when train rolls into future Our position: Indiana needs to seize the regional high-speed rail opportunity. At first blush it sounds extravagant, even prohibitive, the notion of laying 319 miles of high-speed rail through Indiana at a cost of $1 million per mile. But that estimate by state government of the price tag for a Cincinnati-Indy-Chicago corridor must be put in perspective. Compared to a couple of other big 3's -- the $3.8 billion received for the Indiana Toll Road lease and the $3 billion to be paid out for the southern extension of I-69 -- the investment in mass transit as an alleviator of highway congestion looks like a bargain. Plus, as with highways, there is financial help to be had from Washington. ..... http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20070706/OPINION/707060328/1002/OPINION MORE AT THE LINK ABOVE Glad to see the Indy Newspaper take a position on mass transit and high speed rail. Hopefullly more local media outlets in the midwest will do the same. They could make a big difference in the way people view these efforts and their impacts.

From what I have heard recently, the AK steel sit seems to be the top pick at the moment. The project seems to have good political support, the big challenge is money.

You are correct, if you going into a private firm usually the money is a little better but the hours are a lot more.

If you take a look at most starting planning positions in the midwest or other similar cost of living locations a planner starting out will only make between $30,000 an maybe $35,000. If you are willing to go to the coast you can make more but the cost of living goes way up. Most of the time when you see a Planner 1 or Associate Planner position you can assume your pay will be towards the low end of the pay range.

While I understand liquor licenses and the need for them (they really help restaurant development). I really hope the city didn't use taxpayer dollars to fund a study to get more liquor licenses.

Just an FYI for you David, you should expect to be paid 35-40k starting out. Of course this depends upon what part of the country, public/private, etc. The key part also is that while some other positions may start out at more (ie General Manager of a restaurant), they have much fewer opportunities to move up and will most likely max out at a much lower salary than what someone with a degree required job will. Not if you are a teacher. They should make more, but they don't. Actually many professions that require a degree don't start out at these levels.

Well a lot of the old got burned down in a 'little war'.

Nice pics. Glad you were safe. I look forward to your midtown trip.

I think there is nothing wrong if this is auto based. There are many people looking and needing that type of job. I just hope the state continues to work and achieve more balance in its economy over time.

Actually Cincy would probably lose that one. Part of Indy's current MSA is Brown County. Which is home to Brown County State Park that covers 15,696 acres as well as Yellow Wood State Forest and part of the Hoosier National Forest. With that said I think Hamilton County, OH has one of the best county park systems in the US. :wink2:

So you are basing your opinion that Cincy MSA has so much less sprawl and auto orientation because it has 12 more people per square mile? That about an extra 4 houses. WOW!!! Cincy MSA has just as much sprawl (-12 people less per square mile) than Indy (and probably similar cities like Columbus, KC) and car dependency. Cincy's MSA would be just as impact by high gas prices and the lose of sprawl development as Indy or many other cities. I still stick with my main point that I bolded in an above post. Indy create a plan, got its business leaders and politicians on the same page and moved forward and that effort is now paying off at twice the rate of Cincy's efforts in almost all economic indicators. (This has now played out for the last 20 years.) Just as a side not, Cincy MSA has 15 counties not 13 and its CSA has 16 not 14. http://www.census.gov/population/www/estimates/metrodef.html The Sad part of all this, during the time we have spent discussing this topic, Cincy, Indy, Columbus, KC, etc... have probably added X amount of more suburban housing and strip centers and just became a little more auto oriented. None of these cities have any mass transit systems current under construction but, they all have billion of dollars in road projects under construction.