You've probably all heard of Randal O'Toole, who travels around the country and lectures and writes voluminously against any new rail project, often seizing on the latest topic of the day to find a reason to criticize light rail or streetcars. Lately, he's been claiming that rail transit uses more energy than almost any other form of surface transportation. So Bill Becwar, an engineer from Wisconsin who knows a lot about this stuff, took the time -- and I mean a lot of time -- to completely contradict O'Toole's argument. I've been waiting for someone to do this. It's a long post with lots of links that you really should read. We'll hear this argument in Cincinnati and will need to counteract it.
O'Toole is an excellent writer, but he's an ideologue. He cherry picks the "facts" and make heroic and obtuse assumptions and linkages to support his basic argument that any kind of passenger rail is bad. He calls himself an economist, but he's really just a forestry studies grad. He's dangerous because he sounds so reasonable.
[bECWAR'S POSTING FOLLOWS]
It is no surprise that Randall the anti-transit troubador would come
calling to Milwaukee again. The only surprise is that otherwise intelligent
journalists believe his lies after all the crazy claims he has made over the
years. His carbon claim is only the latest in a long line of half-baked
analyses that fall apart once you figure out where he slipped in the ringer.
Someday you really need to ask him about the study that "proved" how small a
part of the population the Portland light rail serves by including the
entire Portland advertising ADI in his calculations. Places such as
Vancouver, Washington, which is not only many miles from any light rail
line, but in another state on the other side of the mighty Columbia River.
This is like claiming that the MCTS #30 route is unsuccessful because so few
of its riders are from Sun Prairie. He is widely known as Randall O'Foole
outside of his own little anti-tax, anti-transit circle. The claim that
transit is less energy efficient is just one of the latest, but a far
better question that never gets asked in interviews is why O'Toole is so
well published at right-wing think tanks and blogs and so poorly published
in peer-reviewed journals. Reality; his stuff is crap and he is a con man
with a built-in agenda. He cheats. And not even very well...
Why, you didn't even check Wikipedia to verify Randall's math:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_efficiency_in_transportation
Let's start with his energy claim. It took me a while to figure out how he
got the values he did, but by reading his junk science blogs in detail and
furiously berating his accolytes, I was able to figure out what he did. It
turns out that O'Toole calculates this value by taking the potential energy
in coal (rated at around 26 x 106 BTU / ton), then subtracts all losses of
heat, magnetism, electrical resistance and inductance along the way. Then
he wizards that result backwards into a different kW-hr number than
generally accepted in engineering manuals for the conversion. And
presented in BTU, so the average schmoe has no handle on what the hell he's
talking about. This is, how you say, not kosher. I can win any marathon
you like, out of shape as I am, by simply changing the rules as I go along
and redefining what it means to be first.
OK, so you don't believe it. Check his website:
http://www.ti.org/vaupdate59.html where he specifically choses 12,000 BTUs
for a kiloWatt-hour. He says, "The report assumes that one kilowatt-hour of
electricity is equal to about 3,400 BTUs. According to pages 260-261 of the
U.S. Department of Energy's Transportation Energy Data Book, after
accounting for generation and transmission losses the real figure is nearly
12,000 BTUs." What this is, in effect, doing is calculating in the
potential energy of the coal and subtracting all possible losses in
transmission to you, but then comparing it to the BTU value of gasoline AS
SITTING IN THE TANK. What happened to oil drilling, pumping, transporting,
refining, storing, transporting again, pumping and evaporation losses? See
the problem with O'Toole's magic numbers? Take a value that you don't like,
grab a different value that was calculated for a completely different
reason, merge them, then work backwards to prove what you set out to show.
A number that Randall simply pulls out of his caboose is substituted for a
reasonable number found in any engineering handbook. Just Google "+convert
+kwh +BTU" anytime to see the accepted number from a wide variety of sources
(it's that same 3,413 BTU per kWh that he so airily dimisses). Simply to
make sense as a reasonable comparison, the energy of gasoline in the tank
should be compared to the energy as delivered, something Randall's invented
conversion does not do. And, actually, this approach is completely invalid
simply because of the vast difference in rolling resistance between the two
modes. 100,000-pound boxcars in level rail yards have often been set
rolling by the wind, because the rolling resistance of steel wheels on steel
rail is so low. A far more valid comparison is how much energy is actually
used to propel the vehicle passenger per mile.
On the basis of his massive numbers for losses in electrical generation and
distribution, you would be lead to believe that electricity is extremely
inefficient and unworkable, with unsustainable losses. Were that really the
truth, our entire power generation and distribution network would be nothing
but a giant space heater, and would quickly melt into slag. So I have to
assume he writes these things by candle light using his kerosene-powered
computer. Let's go the other way once, to see how his magic works.
According to the EPA [ http://www.epa.gov/oms/rfgecon.htm ] "gasoline has
energy content of 114000 btu/gallon." That's 437.8 hp-hr at the usually
accepted conversions. Assuming a horsepower of 150 and steady speed of
60mph for one hour, that "proves" that an average automobile in the US is
very efficient because it gets 175 miles per gallon. See, we proved it
using absolute facts! All you have to do is completely ignore heat losses,
mechanical losses, road friction, wind resistance, lubricant viscosity and a
few thousand other factors of the sort that O'Toole has stacked into his
electrical magic conversion value. Aren't numbers fun?
Think maybe this is just another ad hominem attack on poor Randall O'Toole?
His extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, especially considering
his poor track record. Everytime one of his phantom number sets is exposed
to public ridicule by factual data, he shifts to a new matrix of doom. When
a schlub like me, who is by no means a transit professional, catches a
self-proclaimed guru like O'Toole in so many easily debunkable howlers, it
becomes kinda hard to trust anything he says. If he said the sky is blue,
I'd want to see an up-to-date report from the National Weather Service and a
Pantone Color Chart.
My point on mentioning his lack of peer reviewed articles in any respected
publication is that he really impresses only those who are already
financially, politically or socially inclined to his views, even though his
data is pretty shady. In his current example, O'Toole used only highway
mileage performance for automobiles, comparing that to the heavy urban
performance of rail transit vehicles. I had to email him to get that; it is
nowhere in his study. Now if I compare my little Scion XB (33mpg) stuck in
traffic to a Ford Explorer on cruise control on an empty highway in the
middle of Kansas, it is certainly going to "prove" that the Explorer gets
far higher gas mileage. Does that even pass the smell test? How is that
not misleading to the point of an outright, concious distortion? O'Toole
also includes the energy cost of construction for the light rails, but
tacitly assumes that the highway is already there and lasts forever. At $1
billion for the Marquette Interchange alone, is there some proof that
freeways come free? How much junk did the construction vehicles there emit
over the past three years? And won't we have to do the whole show again in
another 40 years?
Even his claim that the rail vehicles are impractical because they last too
long is ridiculous. This is an advantage? Requiring an all-new vehicle
every few years is an energy savings? Not likely. The energy used and CO2
emitted in the manufacturing process alone greatly outweights any supposed
savings there. Steelmaking, transportation, plus everything right down to
heating the factory and transporting the finished vehicles all adds up.
O'Toole has said that a rail line could never quite make up the CO2 emitted
in its construction. Like I-94 can? When it has to be rebuilt every 20
years?
Go to YouTube and watch the streetcar mechanic in Kenosha change the trucks
(the entire pair of motor and wheel assemblies) on a PCC car [
], which took him a whole two
hours, working alone. If someone develops newer, more efficient motors, its
no trick at all to put them on in nothing flat. And that's on older cars,
which are far less modular than the new ones. San Diego upgraded all of
their propulsion control units during the mid-life rebuildings in 2000-2002.
To do this, you put a key in the door under the front passenger seat of the
car, slide out the control box, and slide in the new, high-tech replacement
so it plugs in. You could do that job now with no further instruction.
His talk of hybrids is fascinating. It conciously ignores that streetcars
were the first vehicles to use such technology, and that this was developed
in the 1930s and used on nearly every car since. I cannot believe that he
does not know this, so I have to assume that it is more dissembling.
Kenosha's half-century-old PCC have had this feature since they were built
in 1951, and Chicago's CTA elevated cars have had it since the late-1940s.
In fact, because of the lower rolling resistance of rail vehicles, they
recapture far more energy than a Prius, which has to store what it can in a
battery at far lower efficiency.
Yeah, rail's supposed lack of flexibility. That's been argued so much by
the antirail crowd. One of the absolute downfalls of the late downtown
shuttle in Milwaukee is that no one knew where the heck it went. On one
memorable occasion, my son had to tell the driver what the route was. I-94
move anywhere lately? Hasn't been re-routed in decades, even as traffic
patterns have shifted wildly - around it. Better: State Street follows the
old Indian trail west of Milwaukee along the Menomonee River. To the foot.
175 years later, it's paved, but the same path. Flexibilty means adding to
or subtracting cars as needed, giving up to 600 additional seats, without
even changing the scedule. And still with just one operator. You cannot do
this with a bus, not even the heavily promoted Bus Rapid Transit, which has
been a poor substitute everywhere it has been tried. Houston completely
dropped plans to expand BRT for more rail after trying both.
I'm an engineer, and prefer the real world to such mathematical houses of
cards. According to the American Public Transit Association Factbook for
2007 [ http://www.apta.com/research/stats/factbook/index.cfm ] , in 2005
(latest year available) all of the light rail vehicles in the US consumed a
grand total of 570,718,000 kWh of electricity for that year. The same
reference says that total ridership on all light rails in the US was
17,000,000,000 passenger-miles. That works out to 0.336 kWh /
passenger-mile travelled. This is not theoretical, but actual power paid
for, actual miles travelled and actual passenger counts, which are gathered
from Federal Transit Administration numbers. You go to federal prison for
lying on those forms. According to those tables, a typical light rail
vehicle in the US consumes about 7.5 kw per mile, and compares pretty
favorably to an average US bus, which gets about 4 mpg on diesel fuel. At
the current $4.36/ gallon, the bus burns $1.09 every mile, and at the WE
Energies retail rate of $0.09 per kWh, the LRT runs on a whole $0.675 per
mile. This stuff starts to add up when you go a few million miles a year.
As seen above, gasoline is generally accepted to be the equivalent of
114,100 BTU/gallon. At the accepted conversion of 3,413 Btu = 1 kWh, this
implies that 1 gallon of gasoline equals 33.431 kWh. So, if a car gets
35mpg in the city, which is pretty darned good, that's 33.431/35, or 0.955
kw/mi. Oh dear... You mean Randall's numbers are crap? Yup. To equal the
rail vehicle, a car would have to do 2.8 times better than 35 mpg, which is
99.5 miles per gallon. When one of those cars goes on sale, let me know.
It is sure as heck nothing any Prius can manage, unless the car is being
pulled by a train.
It's the same for O'Toole's bald assertion that the people on taking the
train used to take the cheap old bus (which suddenly doesn't look so cheap).
Twin Cities Metro Transit ridership surveys found that 2/3's of riders would
have driven alone, and 40% were new to transit of any kind. More than half
(57%) rider the trains five days a week. Ridership on both buses and trains
has increased, with average daily ridership on the light rail there topping
29,000 riders. So - no surprise - O'Tooles pontification that mode doesn't
matter is also an empty assertion. On opening day in Minneapolis, riders
waited in a four-block-long line downtown to take a ride to Ft. Snelling.
Metro had parked a fleet of buses there to spare riders the long wait in the
unshaded parking lot. Buses that ran empty all the way back downtown as
riders waited patiently for the train, walking right past the buses (now
THAT was inefficient!). The Millennium Celebration in Salt Lake City had
precisely the same phenomenon, with riders walking between rows of empty
buses to crowd onto trains. This drives the anti-railers just nuts, so they
simply deny it.
Since I have criticized the derivation of O'Toole's numbers, let's look at
some facts. The Hiawatha Line in Minneapolis carries passengers at a cost
of $0.36 per passenger mile, and the same agency reports that a bus there is
$0.80 per pass-mi. (2006 FTA report -
http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/pubs/profiles/2006/agency_profiles/5027
pdf ). Surely Randy would say that's a bogus number, reported just to make
the rail look good. Sorry, all-bus Milwaukee is $0.96 for the same year,
and Racine is well over a dollar. For the year, the light rail carried
8,957,912 unlinked trips (the standard measure of transit ridership) to
Metro's total ridership of 73,356,649. And there are only 24 LRTs to 702
buses in the Twin Cities. It cost Metro $18,725,334 to operate the light
rail, out of a total operating expense budget of $226,974,595. The light
rail also provided 52,584,623 passenger-miles of service to the bus total of
261,745,530, but, since every mile on the bus costs $0.44 per passenger-mile
more, carrying those 52 million rail rider miles by bus would have cost an
additional $23,137,234.12 per year. On that single basis, even without any
of the other well-proven benefits, the entire $750 million price tag for the
Hiawatha Line would be paid off in 32 years, 5 months - faster than many
home mortgages. It is the same logic that has people buying high-efficiency
furnaces over cheap old gas burners; because they pay off in the long run,
even though they cost far more to buy.
Look hard at those numbers for Minneapolis again: that one, 12-mile long
light rail line, operating solely in Minneapolis, provides 12.2% of all
transit trips in the entire Twin Cities metro area on 8% of the operating
budget and using just over 3% of the transit vehicles. Is it any wonder
that a concrete-carrier like O'Toole would be scared to death of that?
Check around the country... [
http://www.ntdprogram.gov/ntdprogram/links.htm ] The numbers for Portland
and San Diego are quite comparable. There were about 5 light rail systems
of any kind in the US in 1979, now there are about 40 different cities with
some form of light rail. The anti-transit whiners like Wendell Cox and
O'Toole have been fairly successful at delaying first lines where there is
no rail, but they have had a notoriously poor record of stopping additional
lines and expansions when any rail operation is already running. You can't
lie to people twice, no matter how hard you try. Charlotte recently voted
to keep the transit tax to pay for more lines as their first line was
opening, and liberal old Denver voted to increase their taxes to pay for
more rail faster. On the seventh such vote, Kansas City elected to put in a
line, and both Seattle and Phoenix will be opening in a year. Dallas and
dozens of others are expanding. More telling, maybe, is that that O'Toole
is based near Portland and Cox in Belleville, IL; both places that have
added light rail lines over those antirailer's strenuous objections. Not
only can't Wendell and Randall stop other places from adding more rail, they
can't even convince their friends and neighbors. Obviously, all forms of
transit have their place, and rail is not suitable for corridors where there
is little ridership, but as a transit concentrator, acting as the spine of a
comprehensive network of trains and buses connecting places that already
have traffic, the real-world numbers are unbeatable.
Those lies certainly do come home to roost. In the Twin Cities, both the
furiously anti-rail state legislator Phil Krinkie and the transit-hating
mayor of St. Paul were on the unemployment line at the very next election.
That is when both the NorthStar commuter line (their KRM line) and planning
for the light rail to connect the Twin Cities started in earnest. On
opening day, Phil hilariously expanded on one of Wendell's earlier themes,
saying that it would have been cheaper to give every rider a brand new SUV.
Fortunately, his constituents were not impressed by such obvious, hollow
grandstanding. It is even the same in Kenosha, where the mayoral candidate
that promised to "shut down the trolleys" was creamed this April in an
all-time record landslide of 70% / 30%.
How long do light rail vehicles last? When one of the Cincinnati
anti-railers demanded that answer, I had to admit that I did not know. Not
that I don't have a grasp of the facts, or know where to look up the data,
but that there is no such complete data as of yet. Calgary and San Diego
(1979 and 1980, respectively) are still running their original light rail
cars. Portland, Danver, Dallas, St. Louis - all originals from opening day,
but with newer cars added for additional service. Kenosha does daily
service with their 57-year-olds that came second-hand after millions of
service miles in Toronto, and New Orleans is running only it's 1927 and
earlier Perley-Thomas streetcars after the newer ones were all destroyed in
the flooding. The South Shore (NICTD, Chicago to South Bend) is still
running on the Kawasaki cars they bought in the 1970s. "So," I told the
anti-, "when we wear out a few light rail vehicles, I'll let you know." On
average, a $750,000 bus lasts about 12 years. How long does the rail last?
It depends, but I can say that the freight line north of Kenosha, which
carries all of the coal trains to Oak Creek Power Plant as well as heavy
construction rock trains from Racine quarries, the rail was installed in
1937, and the heavily-used CP rail mainline west of Milwaukee just replaced
rail from 1947. If roads lasted anywhere near this long, we wouldn't have
had to pave I-94 until 2015, instead of being on the third reworking of that
road surface.
More bad news for rail opponents. Check out the recent reports that homes
near functioning transit have been holding their value pretty well, while
the sprawl-fest houses an hour out have been dropping like Bear-Stearns
stock. NPR had this a short while ago:
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=89803663 Economics
weighs in where good sense fails to prevail. Milwaukee, with its barely
functional transit system, does not fare well in this.
No one is denying that power plants could and should be cleaner than they
are. On this, O'Toole has it both ways, a right-wing president who has
specifically exempted existing power plants from required upgrades, and
being able to blame that polution solely on transit. Yes, light rail
vehicles do use about 570,718,000 kWh annually. That's a lot of power. But
the US generates over 16 trillion kWh annually (i.e. 16,000,000,000,000), so
the amount used to run light rail trains is a whopping 0.000035% of the
total. For comparison, one reputable source [
ttp://www.roughtype.com/archives/2007/09/the_electric_gr.php ] estimates
that US computers currently use 868 billion kWh a year, or 5.3% of US annual
generating capacity. Even if it is a tiny fraction of the whole US power
consumption, any pollution from electric rail vehicles is conveniently
located at the power plant, where cleaning it is at least feasible, rather
than spilling out of a million tailpipes, at least some of which are going
to be far dirtier than average.
This is not the first time the Journal has blown this question. Accepting
O'Toole's bogus assertions without really understanding where he fooled you
is just the latest in a long line of such slips. Point of fact is that I
cancelled my subscription to the Journal Sentinel when there was not the
slightest mention of the opening of the light rail line opening in
Minneapolis in June, 2004. When I questioned this, Sandler said it wasn't
relevant to Milwaukee. Really? A controversy that has its very own state
law? Other newspapers disagreed, and I traced the AP story in the Phoenix
Sun, the New Orleans Times-Picayune, The Detroit Free Press, and the
Edinburgh Sunday Telegraph, among hundreds of others. That's Edinburgh, as
in Scotland. NPR and all the networks also had it, as did two of the local
TV stations. The Hiawatha Line finally made the Journal in a passing
reference in Eugene Kane's column about six months later. I have to figure,
if the paper could miss that, how could I ever trust them to cover some
subject that I do not know so well?
Yours,
Bill Becwar
Wauwatosa, WI
P. S. For a look at the other side, though far more balanced and supported
than O'Tooles websites, check: www.lightrailnow.org The myths section
provides a pretty good analysis of the antirailer's outright lies.