John Schneider

"Gas pushes above $3.67 a gallon, while oil passes $126 on Venezuela supply concerns NEW YORK (AP) -- Oil rose above $126 a barrel for the first time Friday, bringing its advance this week to nearly $10, as investors questioned whether a possible confrontation between the U.S. and Venezuela could cut exports from the OPEC member. Gas prices, meanwhile, rose above an average $3.67 a gallon at the pump, following oil's recent path higher." And the Cincinnati backstory is ... At $126, a barrel of oil now costs $100 more than it cost on November 5, 2002 when Hamilton County voters defeated an extensive plan for transportation choices here. Economists hired to study the plan concluded that it would cost an average Hamilton County family $68 per year, about what I paid for a tank of gas last week. The plan defeated in 2002 would have built sixty miles of light rail in five corridors: along I-74 to Green Township; I-75 to Tri-County; I-71 to Blue Ash; and a line from Uptown through Hyde Park to Newtown. Another rail line would have enabled Cincinnatians to travel across the county without having to go downtown and transfer. There were two streetcar lines, a 25% increase in the bus fleet, new bus routes and neighborhood hubs and more hours of bus service. When the plan was fully built-out by 2030, 95% of Hamilton County residents would have transit within a mile of their homes. It would be nice to have that option now. The first line to be built, the Northeast Corridor, would have linked Downtown with Uptown, Xavier and Blue Ash on a route roughly parallel to I-71. At the time of the Hamilton County vote in 2002, the Federal Transit Administration rated the expected performance of the Northeast Corridor project to be equal to similar rail project planned for Norfolk. Neither city's project was recommended to receive Federal funds at that time because Cincinnati and Norfolk hadn't yet agreed to match a Federal commitment with local funds. At the time of the vote here, rail opponents waved the bloody shirt of Cincinnati's "Not Recommended" rating as proof of our project's unworthiness. The plain truth was, and is, the Feds won't commit any money for rail projects unless the locals do. As it should be. Cincinnati said no. Norfolk said yes, got its Federal commitment, and its project is now under construction. As we ponder a breathtaking 500% rise in the price of oil in less than six years, maybe it's time to start planning for a balanced transportation system here once again. Building the Cincinnati Streetcar is a start.

^ Mike Moose, Dan Deering and I met with Clyde Gray of Channel 9 for an hour last week. He watched our PowerPoint presentation and had a lot of very informed questions.

The carbon footprint ppm is interesting so far as it goes, but it only deals with mobility, not access and structure types. Generally people who lived in walkable neighborhoods simply don't travel as much, so even if they do travel by car, they travel so (relatively) little, that their overall carbon footprint is much lower than the suburban model. I know someone who lives in OTR who hasn't moved his car since New Year's Day. His carbon footprint ppm certainly less than someone who drives a very efficient car and lives in Mason and works downtown. Plus people who live in downtowns and neighborhood business districts inherently occupy less space, live in dwellings with fewer exterior walls and windows, don't have as much grass to cut or as many swimming pools to heat. They have less asphalt paving on their property, if any. This is why, when you look at carbon loads in cities like NYC or SF compared to The American Dream Cities like Atlanta and Houston, the dense cities have much less of a total carbon footprint per capita.

^ One thing you're going to want to consider is all the occasional users of the streetcar -- Reds and Bengals fans, CAC, Music Hall. They're probably not going to want to bother with using anything other than cash. If they're from other cities, I'm not sure how they could have a Cincinnati transit card even if they wanted to. That's one type of passenger -- probably the most complicated one. With respect to the regular users -- people who depend on it and might be willing to pay a pretty good sum each month to use it all the time -- they ought to get a perceived discount. The key, it seems to me, is to sort of emulate the car paradigm. I'm going to invest so much every month because this is mainly how I get around, but I'm going to pay a flat rate and be able to use it as much as I want. Sort of a high fixed cost, but low variable cost. In terms of the math for this, say a frequent streetcar customer used it three times a day -- maybe even a hundred times a month. That might cost him or her $150 if you added up the sum of individually paid fares. But maybe he or she can buy a pass for somewhere between $55 per month -- the cost of a city-only bus pass -- and, say, $100 per month. Maybe it would be good on Metro buses too. I think that would start to get you in the range we'd need to be.

The Conspiracy uncovered, at last: http://www.cincinnatibeacon.com/index.php/contents/comments/connect_the_dots_the_enquirer_the_freedom_center_3cdcs_otr_and_the_streetca/

Bad idea, I think. You'd have a vibrant market in the resale of used tickets. Kind of like the one for bus tokens operating around the Courthhouse.

^ The idea of the streetcar maybe being free during the lunch hour to try to pry people out of their offices is interesting. I don't think you'd want free fares at peak. That's when the highest demand is. Theoretically those fares ought to be the highest because the system has to be running two additional cars and drivers. Plus, you're providing real value to people who would save by parking remotely. I think the optimum solution is some sort of electronic voucher that signifies to a fare inspector and -- perhaps more importantly -- to fellow streetcar riders that a person has paid the correct fare. Once people see others evading fares, everyone will do it. All interesting ideas that should get into the mix.

^ I'm not smart enough to know what the best fare policy is. Nor does the industry, really. This is really fertile ground for innovation.

^ Keep in mind that Monzel's not looking for riders in the abstract, he's looking for paying passengers coming up with $900K per year. The problem with Portland's annual passes is that they only cost, I think, $100. So If a thousand people have an annual pass and use it twice a day -- a weighted 300 days per year -- that's 1000 x 2 x 300 = 600,000 rides for $100,000 in total revenue (1,000 annual pass holders each paying $100 per year). Or about 16 cents per ride instead of the stated fare of $1.00 to $2.00. See the problem? Add a little fare evasion -- who checks the passes? -- and the problem is compounded. Of all the things City Council has to decide, none is more important than fare policy and they way fares are collected and checked. If they get it wrong, they will ruin the project.

^ The end-to-end running time is about 16 minutes. Counting some layover time at each end of the line, I'd figure each streetcar makes round 1.5 trips per hour. There would be an average of three streetcars running (four at peak, two off-peak), and there are eighteen stations. So an average of three streetcars each running 1.5 loops per hour equals 4.5 streetcar loops per hour. There are 18 stops on each loop. So an average of three streetcars each making 1.5 loops per hour through 18 stops means there will be 81 streetcar stops per hour. So to get to Monzel's number, you need an average of three people boarding per stop. Portland's downtown is similar is size and employment to Cincinnati's. When I ride the streetcars there on typical days, between zero and as many as twenty people board at each stop. Throw in the huge number office workers parking on our riverfront wanting to get up into town, plus some special events, I think the estimate is reasonable. Let's see, how many Reds and Bengals fans might want to park way up in OTR for free nights and Sundays and take the streetcar to and from games? That's an imponderable, and it's great for OTR businesses. It may change the way game days work here, when a lot of parking and after-game business gets siphoned-off to Kentucky. I do think fares will end up higher than what's been proposed, and so the ridership may fall. Just reading through some studies on the web, it appears that the price elasticity for electric rail transit is somewhere in the -0.20 to -0.40 range. So, if fares were to be $1.50 rather than $1.00 -- I think that's Monzel's assumption -- then a $0.50, or 50%, increase in the fare might yield, what, 26 to 50 fewer riders per hour. We'll all be shocked by how few people ride the streetcar on its first day of operation, but it will catch on pretty quickly once people figure it out. Just as an aside, has anyone noticed fewer people riding our buses since the fare increased by 50%? Didn't think so.

from Peter Bronson this morning ... Streetcars don't boost neighborhoods Empty all the soup kitchens and drug rehab centers, then round up all the homeless guys, panhandlers and drug dealers, and there still won't be enough riders in Over-the-Rhine to make a streetcar break even. "At $1 fares, running six days a week and 14 hours a day, it would require 264 riders an hour," Councilman Chris Monzel said in a streetcar debate at a Norwood bar Monday evening. http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080501/COL05/805010316/-1/columnists

They're great. How will they be distributed? If there's a central point, I'll put the location out to a rather large list. It would be nice to see these starting to show up soon on cars all over town. Especially, all over town, not just downtown.

^ Yeah, I think tolling will happen too, only by means of transponders in each car or truck that record and charge for highway use by distance, time of day, day of week and location. This will almost certainly tend to push the system in the direction of marginal cost pricing and away from the average cost pricing regime of the gas tax. It will focus most of the cost of highway expansions on those who use them at peak in the most congested communities. The effect will be that rush-hour travel will become a sort of luxury, like air travel is fast becoming.

^ Except that the current level of highway funding produced by gas taxes will, beginning in 2009, only be capable of covering maintenance and safety improvements in most states -- no major new projects. So who's gonna' campaign for higher gas taxes to add highway capacity? McCain and Clinton want to suspend them. The near-term prospects for America's highways are really quite grim, and I suspect a lot of Americans will want to bail on the whole system, just change their lives so they don't have to drive for everything they need. I did a long time ago. Tastes great. Less fill-ups.

I posted the following on another blog tonight. Something to keep in mind as you talk with people. Benefit/Cost Ratio for the Cincinnati Streetcar downtown to OTR: 2.7 to 1.0 Benefit/Cost Ratio for adding one lane to I-75 in Hamilton County: 1.13 to 1.0 Both ratios were calculated by the same economists using OKI's Regional Travel Demand Model. The reason is, the streetcar's benefits are sustainable. They grow over time as highway congestion and fuel prices increase and more development occurs along the streetcar route. The situation with the highway is precisely opposite. Congestion increases, much of it caused by a doubling of trucks over the next twenty years, such that the highway becomes just as congested as it was before the improvement was made. And higher fuel prices add to the cost of personal travel. The highway calculation was made assuming the longterm cost of gasoline would be a little over $1.00. I suspect that now the widening of I-75 doesn't even cover its cost of capital. We'd be better off leaving the money in the bank. The streetcar's return was also estimated using a price of fuel that is much less than it sells for today. Were the calculations rerun, the return on the streetcar investment would almost certainly be higher.

^ Chris wanted to do it, and I've been coming down with the flu -- somewhat arrested by Tamiflu, which appears to work wonders.

^ Yes. And tonight they will have their best night ever.

Chris Bortz will be debating Chris Monzel tonight. Go if you can.

Cincinnati is as dense as Portland and more dense than many other cities building light rail or streetcars including Seattle, Tacoma, Sacramento, San Diego, Phoenix, Salt Lake City, Denver, Dallas and Houston -- just a few that come to mind.

^ I've lived car-free since 1973, almost all of that time in downtown Cincinnati, which is about the only place you can do it easily. They key is just making a commitment for work, live, shop and entertain yourself in a small area. And rely on rental cars from time-to-time. Taxis are worthless. Not everyone could do it, but lots could. I've noticed that my neighbors, even those who have cars, tend to adopt this pattern of living over time.

“The popular narrative on the collapse of housing prices has only blamed exotic lending practices,” said Cortright, “but the much more important story is about how higher gas prices have re-drawn the map of urban real estate values. Vibrant central cities just got a whole lot more valuable.” Here's the media release: http://www.ceosforcities.org/newsletters/files/Driven_Release_Final.pdf Read the full study here: http://www.ceosforcities.org/newsletters/files/Driven%20to%20the%20Brink%20FINAL.pdf

Are you going to be on? yes

Streetcars on 700WLW at 12:30p today.

^ Thanks. It's amazing what even a little bit of knowledge can do to demystify this issue.

^ I don't think the city manager would have appeared before City Council yesterday if he didn't think he could get this done. My impression is, he under-promises and over-delivers. This is going to happen.