Eigth and State

"This thread never really represented both sides of the peak oil argument." I have to ask. What are the two sides of the argument?

"And more alternatives will become more prevalent,..." To get straight to the point, I think this is where the utopians get it wrong. Without oil, followed by natural gas and coal, alternatives will become LESS affordable, not more affordable.

^---- I look forward to KJP's response to this.

Mulberry Street, New York City, c 1900. Found on the web. Enjoy!

For most people, the first thing that comes to mind is, "How am I going to drive to work?" The conversation then goes to alternative energy sources for cars. But the peak oil concept is much, much more than that, especially if it is expanded to include peak natural gas and peak coal. Peak oil is a global concept, and one must see the bigger picture in order to try to understand it. It also helps to know something about math, science, and history. Here's a page from LeCorbusier's "The City of Tomorrow," published in 1929. Growth of population. The Great City is a recent event, with devastating consequences! The menace of tomorrow. 1800 1880 1910 Paris 647,000 2,200,000 3,000,000 London 800,000 3,800,000 7,200,000 Berlin 181,000 1,840,000 3,400,000 New York 60,000 2,800,000 4,500,000

Uh oh, you used the P-word.

You call that a revolution? A cutback is doing LESS with less. I am personally seeing this happen - people are cutting back on things because of high gasoline prices. It's not that they are switching from driving to bicycling; they are avoiding the activity altogether and staying home. It's certainly a change, and maybe it will turn out for the better. I don't know if I would call it a revolution, though. Maybe a return to previous ways? If C-Dawg is a doomer, you are a utopian.

So KJP, what is this new energy revolution? Do you think that cars will be replaced by transit, cars be replaced by horses and buggies, or cars not be replaced at all?

“There have been people who have forecast doomsday scenarios frequently in the past and none of them has turned out to be right so far, so I’m a little skeptical of doomsday scenarios,” he said. “Man has found solutions to the problems people have foreseen. I’m hopeful and I think it’s quite possible that we will do that once again.” So, does the author think there is no hunger, no war, or no suffering in the world today? Not trying to sound like a bleeding heart liberal, but the fact is that man has NOT found solutions to problems.

Off the top of my head I can think of two Wal-marts that have closed, and both were about 10 years old. One was in Oxford, Ohio, actually within walking distance of the traditional town center. It was superceded by a new super Wal-mart a few miles out on the highway outside of town. The other was at Colerain Town Center, located at I-275 and U.S. 27. When that shopping center opened, some planners lamented that the Colerain Avenue shopping district was allowed to cross north of I-275. That center had three anchors: Wal-mart, Thriftway, and Dick's sporting goods. Two of three closed, as Wal-mart opened a new store and the entire Thriftway chain of 50 or so stores went out of business. Wal-mart opened a new store several miles south - closer to Cincinnati - on U.S. 27, recycling a dumpy K-mart property that was one of the first big boxes on the strip. An auto service garage was also demolished as part of that project, and a Staples store was replaced with a TWO STORY building at the K-mart site to make room for the expanded Wal-mart. Then, Wal-mart began redeveloping their own closed building at Colerain Town Center as a new Super Wal-mart.

I see a lot of empty pavement in these photos. Everytime I see a proposal for a new development, whether it be retail, industrial, or whatever, and they say something like, "This development will create 300 new jobs," I have to wonder if those are really NEW jobs or if they are just diverted from somewhere else. Thanks for all the hard work. I enjoy these.

Suppose you lead a company that uses a lot of oil, whether it be a large trucking or shipping company, a refiner, or a producer of commercial fertilizers. You see the prices going up, and you hear rumors of shortages. Certainly oil is a crucial part of your business, but it is not the only part. You also have payroll, taxes, interest, and other supplies that you purchase. Maybe oil is only 10% of your costs, but it is irreplaceable. If you run out of oil, you will go out of business. What might you do in times like this? Buy more oil and store it for the future. You can either buy it directly and store it in a tank, or buy oil futures on contract. When your competitors drop out of business, you think, oil will be more affordable. Maybe this is what is happening. It's not just "Speculators" who are trying to make a profit, but "Speculators" that are trying to keep their businesses running without a shutdown. Just a guess.

There's a minor misunderstanding with the above article. M. King Hubbert predicted that oil produced in THE UNITED STATES would peak about 1970. Matthew Simmons said that oil produced in the ENTIRE WORLD peaked in 2005.

A friend once told me, "The success of Main Street in Over-the-Rhine will never move north of Liberty Street." I think his point was that since Liberty Street has been widened into a motorway, it's a pretty big barrier to pedestrians. Can you imagine what it must have looked like when it was still narrow?

On the macroeconomic trends, I just checked my Hamilton County Data Book. There is a chart for number of units built in Hamilton County from 1960 to 2001. The overall trend is a decline from 7665 units in 1960 to 2308 units in 2001; however, there is a funny peak in the early 1970's, with 8611 units built that year, and a rapid decline to about 2,500 in 1974. Keep up the good work.

I have a friend who lives there. Generally, Madeira has all the good qualities of a community such as good schools, low crime, and so on. It has the quircks of a small town atmosphere with regard to zoning and building permits; they will go after you if you try to build a shed or a satellite dish without a permit. Supposedly, a lot of lawyers live there. I have not heard any horror stories about Maderia.

^---- "I don't know why people on here are so pessimistic about recent developments in alternative energy." It's one thing to do a lab experiment, and another to produce something commercially. Plain and simply, the gasoline or diesel powered internal combustion engine is hard to beat in terms of convenience, flexibility, ease of use, and return on investment as a source of industrial power.

^---- Needs Another Seven Astronauts or Now Accepting Seven Applications

CSX railroad intends to build a major intermodal facility near North Baltimore in order to distribute containers shipped to Atlantic ports near Baltimore, Maryland. The project also includes bridge and tunnel work to allow double stack containers. Ha! I just noticed that the railroad would travel from Baltimore, Maryland to North Baltimore, Ohio. I wonder if the names are connected, or just a coincidence.

The Little Miami Railroad was the first railroad in Cincinnati, built about 1840, between Cincinnati and Xenia. The narrow Little Miami River valley didn't offer much opportunity for industrial development, and the railroad couldn't stand the competition from parallel railroads in the industrial Mill Creek valley. The Little Miami Railroad eventually became the bike trail. A few storefronts have become ice cream shops but overall the little railroad towns are in a time warp. Loveland, Ohio seems to be bike trail central with families, and only the more serious bikers make it to Morrow.

^---- The geometry for the Covington ramps isn't very good. A skillful integration of the Clay Wade Bailey Bridge may very well improve traffic and reduce accidents in the Covington area.

^------ Put the toll plaza way up on top of the hill near Kyles Lane. Eliminate all access between Ohio and Kyles lane (The Covington Ramps impede traffic anyway.) Improve access to the Clay Wade Bailey Bridge from the Ohio side. Toll the existing bridge as a form of congestion pricing. Don't build a new bridge, as we won't need the capacity in the future anyway.

"I think it's going to get worse before it gets better." You think it will get better?

Got stuck in traffic at Harrison and 128 this morning. Clearly the intersection was overloaded by vehicles going east on Harrison. Now I know why.

If I were to guess, I bet 50% of residents of Hamilton County have never been in Over-the-Rhine in their lifetimes. If you count the entire Cincinnati metro including West Chester, etc., the proportion would be even lower. To most people, downtown is Fountain Square, the Museum Center at Union Terminal, the stadiums and colliseum, and Riverfest. Over-the-Rhine is just a glimpse from the highway and riot images from 2001. To really appreciate Over-the-Rhine, you have to walk it.