Eigth and State

Can you elaborate on the change from iron to aluminum? Are we talking about engines? Frames? Body panels? Is this an industry wide event? Will cars last longer due to aluminum construction? Thanks.

I like the plat and aerial photo combination. Thanks again.

Schedule? Directions?

Will there be a published report? If so, how can I get one?

Cincydrew: A) We discussed the population growth in another thread. The conclusion was that Cincinnati proper is not growing. The most recent estimate is based on a different method than what was used in the past. Using a consistent method would probably show a loss. B) All of this talk of metro populations is influenced by the boundary you choose. In Ohio, roughly 1/4 of our counties are losing population, 1/4 are gaining, and 1/2 are stable. Generally, the diagonal Cincinnati-Columbus-Cleveland I-71 corridor counties are gaining, except the 3 urban counties. The northeast and southwest quadrants of the state are losing. So, count Hamilton, Clermont, Butler, and Warren, and yes, we are growing. Add Clinton, Brown, Highland, Ross, Pike, and Adams, and we are barely gaining. If you don't think that Highland county is part of the Cincinnati metro, please note that Hillsboro people do their shopping in Cincinnati. In fact, there used to be an interurban railway between Cincinnati and Hillsboro. Again, Ohio as a whole is barely growing, and Census projections show that by 2018 we will be shrinking. John: I agree with just about everthing you say. My point is that the driver of investments, literally, is funding. Cincinnati may be ideal for rail, and Houston may not be. But, if Houston has more money available than Cincinnati, well, then the rail investments are going to be in Houston. In this sense, the other considerations don't really matter. If I'm not mistaken, the European countries tax gasoline and use the proceeds to build rail. This encourages transit in TWO ways: it makes it more expensive to drive, and improves transit operation. Again, this doesn't really have as much to do with density as it does with funding. I can only imagine what kind of public transit we might have if we funded transit instead of motorways. How does population growth fit into this? Maybe those growing cities have a better ratio of wage earners to dependents, and thus have more money for rail. We can barely get school levies passed here, much less get rail funded. Respectfully, a rail skeptic.

You asked for it. :-D http://www.jibjab.com/originals/big_box_mart

^--- This is just a guess, but.... Those cities are all growing cities with a lot of political clout. They have the resources to build light rail, and we don't. It's not that they want it more than we do, but they have more money to spend. The fact that they are growing also invites a longer term view of investment in infrastructure. Would you build light rail or anything else for that matter in a shrinking city? Ohio is projected to peak in population in 2018 and then decline, according to the U.S. Census. Compare to Texas, Florida, and California which are projected to gain 12 million each by 2030.

^---- Not necessarily, but it seems that the peak of the best grades of oil may have occurred within the last year or two. Right now, it seems that there is plenty of crude oil, but a bottleneck in refining and distribution of gasoline. In any case, the peak of total oil is likely to be only a few years away if it hasn't happened yet. Regarding the school levy failures: peak oil and gasoline prices are more than just commutes. There is one school of thought that people will get more fuel-efficient cars, move closer to work, take transit, etc. Another school of thought is that people will still drive their big cars on long commutes but cut back on other things. So far it seems that both effects are occuring. Transit use is up, but the restaurant business is down.

"An upside of rising gas prices is that it will steadily cause more people to reallocate their resources and assets in a smarter way." Are you assuming they will have the same resources and assets to reallocate? Gas prices have more to do than just commuting by automobile. I don't know how all of this will play out, but I am assuming that virtually EVERYTHING will be less affordable.

^---- "Imagine if those people at least moved a few miles closer - and how they could invest their savings - yeesh!" Yes, but if ALL of them moved closer, wouldn't you expect the housing cost to go up? Generally, the farther from the core, the less it costs for new housing. Thus, for many, the game is a trade off between housing costs and transportation costs. Of course, many have made assumptions about future gasoline prices that have turned out to be wrong. For now, they are dipping into their savings or cutting back on other expenses to make up the difference. Let's see what happens in the long term.

Well? I am still hoping for the 5th.

Well done. Thanks for posting. "For all the planning effort in Dayton city, the real history of the past 50 years is in the suburbs." For whatever reason, that's where most of the money is. "One thing that is apparent is that plans involving retail fail in a big way." You have to have the shoppers to get the sales. The best way to get shoppers is to go to them, not make them come to you. "The space was apparently actually used for events for a time, but was unused and forgotten..." New things have a certain novelty that will attract people. The key word is "people." Remember the classic Jane Jacobs quote, "The renderings looked nice, but where are the people?" This thread is kind of sad, in that so much effort was made yet the fundamentals were so wrong.

^----"the market" is not effective at responding in time to some long term, systemic resouce issues. It takes 20 years to develop an oil field once it has been discovered. We have gasoline today thanks to work done in 1987. I don't think that's a market failure. On the other hand, I think that the oil industry is well aware that the rate of oil extraction will not increase significantly, and therefore the oil industry is not building any new refineries. Those folks buy oil on long term contracts, and the contracts simply are not coming in. "Saudi Arabia has barely been maintaining production levels by selling more and more heavy oils which most of our refineries can't process." The oil and gas industry is too complex for me to understand. However, as a simplification, there are different grades of oil that are extracted from the ground. "Light Sweet Crude" is good oil; it takes little work to refine. "Heavy Sour' is bad oil; it takes more work to refine it. There is some evidence that production of light sweet crude peaked in 2004. The easy oil was extracted first. 2004 roughly cooresponds to the time when prices started rising. "I think it will reach $4.19 for regular. At least I hope it will. Driving is for suburbanites!" Be careful what you wish for!

Excellent work, again. Thanks for posting.

Just buy an old camcorder, take an hour of film, and pull still photos off of it. Granted, you won't get the best quality, but what do you expect from that little flying machine? I always wanted to do that with a kite, or maybe a paraglider.

Murray - how was the climbing?

I got the chance to visit Park City two years ago. We passed through Salt Lake City on the way. We also visited Heber City and Provo. I went with family, and only got to spend a little time in Salt Lake City itself. Some people just don't get it. :cry: I agree that Salt Lake City is very clean, and so is Park City. Heber City was more gritty. My first impression of Salt Lake City was that the streets were extraordinarily wide, and the freeways were mostly empty. Anyway, here are some more mountain photos. Mount Timpagonos Near Guardsmans Pass Near Provo

5-5-2007. I have something scheduled in Columbus that day.

"Bridge traffic is expected to grow to more than 200,000 vehicles a day over the next 10 to 15 years." I would like to see the source of that information.

^--- All true, but isn't the use of home computers for work growing? Just imagine the number of professional eBay dealers.

"Hypercars aren't the answer by themselves." Yes, he did say that. In any discussion about peak oil, the talk of replacing cars with some new technology usually comes up. I think the typical American thinks, "If we run out of oil, how am I going to drive to work?" I think the answer is, "You are not going to drive to work." Whether we will have mass transit, more walking communities, telecommuting, gradual population loss, or as some of the doomers predict, a massive catastrophic die-off remains to be seen. Lighter cars are available now. People don't seem to prefer them.

Lovins does not address the number of vehicles. Efficiency standards such as miles per gallon are assumed to refer to a single vehicle. Sure, if you switch from a 20 mpg car to a 50 mpg car, you are going to save gasoline. Likewise, if every driver in the United States did so, we would save gasoline as a whole. The trouble with that argument is that the number of cars, or the number of miles driven, does not stay constant. Efficiency gains are wiped out by growth in numbers. Therefore, I don't buy the idea that hypercars will save us. In short, we use all of the oil available to us, whether in hypercars or not. On the other hand, it is not guaranteed that there will be oil available to import in 2050.

^---- Maybe homes will be heated the same way they are today: with natural gas, heating oil, electricity, solar, and some wood. The key could be that there will be FEWER homes to heat. :-o Ohio's population is projected to peak in 2018, according to the U.S. Census.

Thanks for the post. Please keep them coming. As much as folks on this site like to criticise urban renewal, it seems as if that area was in terminal decline anyway, with buildings burning down and being razed for parking lots. In your opinion, what would have happened if the city had NOT planned the Mid Town Mart? Would any of that old urban fabric have survived? Is the present development an improvement over what would have been there now? I found the following in the 1948 Cincinnati Metropolitan Master Plan. "In the oldest and most centrally-located neighborhoods, the deterioration and obsolescence have proceeded to a marked degree and the whole pattern of land use has changed radically from its original character. Pursuing this course, parts of the city once containing the best residences have become what are known familiarly as blighted areas. In some of these the process of deterioration has gone so far that the only satisfactory solution is clearance and a fresh start."

I should be ready to scan soon. I am tied up on another project at the moment. Mods - is there an UrbanOhio server I can put these on? Riverviewer - let's arrange a time for me to pick up the books within the next month or two.