Eigth and State

"Big Strong Men Will Very Rarely Eat Pork Chops." What does this riddle mean? I found this on the internet today and thought it was cool. Hint: it's related to Ohio.

^Stones salvaged from the Chamber of Commerce building, by Richardson, built about 1890 and destroyed by fire about 1900. (Can't remember the exact dates.)

So, if people are dining out less, than that means less business for the restaurants as well as a little bit less driving. Less business for the restaurants means fewer employees driving to work. I think demand destruction has already started, although it may be mild compared to what is to come. On another discussion board, it was estimated that gasoline will never reach $6.00 a gallon, other things being equal. At that price, demand destruction will be in full swing. Minimum wage earners will not be able to afford to drive to work: it will cost them more money than they make. At least that was one guy's take on it. In 1997 it cost me about $8.00 to fill up the tank of my car. Now it costs me $45! (I have a larger vehicle with a larger gas tank in addition to higher gasoline prices and some inflation.)

^We won't necessarily find out about $5.00 gasoline. When I first found out about peak oil, my first thought was, "What happens when gasoline hits $10? $20? If supply declines and demand stays the same, then prices have to rise. However, demand DOES NOT stay the same. Look in the preceding article. People are avoiding dining out, avoiding vacation trips, and so on. Not only does this reduce the demand for the people making those decisions, it also puts less money in the pockets of the restaurant and hotel workers. Some call this effect Demand Destruction. Then there is inflation, which just confuses the price issue even more. I don't know what's going to happen with price. It may go up further, it may stay the same, or it may go down. But in any case, I think there will be big changes. Just for fun: Assume a car is driven 12,000 miles per year at 20 miles per gallon. It will consume 600 gallons of gasoline. At $1.00 a gallon, that's $600. At $2.00 a gallon, that's $1,200. At $3.00 a gallon, that's $1,800. At $4.00 a gallon, that's $2,400. That's still small, percentage wise, compared to the cost of the car or the $40,000 per year earnings. Obviously, the poorer you are, the more it will affect you.

Have you been reading Malthus, Rob?

There are some who say that conventional oil peaked in late 2005, and that the best grade, light sweet crude, peaked in 2004. In any case, if oil hasn't peaked yet, it's close. Yet, Americans are buying more gasoline than ever! Gasoline production is up over last year. There is some evidence that other uses of petroleum, such as in making foam padding, have declined enough to make up the shortfall. Another use of oil is for boiler fuel for all kinds of industry, including generating electricity. Some anecdotal evidence that I saw the other day is a paper company in New York that burns a combination of scrap wood, bark, sawdust, and fuel oil for power. They are now burning scrap wood, bark, sawdust, and TIRES! The environmentalists are watching it closely.

"< :speech: > Man, does that prompt an elegy/tirade....." Whoa... This should be interesting. I'm all ears.

Pardon me if I'm missing something, but is this just an aerial photo with labels? I was hoping for street-level photos.

^---- People don't believe they are squandering the earth's resources. They don't understand how the system works. It's not hard to understand; they just don't NEED to understand it. Instead of associating the light switch with a coal mine in Kentucky, for example, the typical person associates the light switch with his energy bill, which he further associates with his paycheck. As long as he is employed, he will be able to afford electric light, he thinks. He thinks he EARNS the ability to turn the lights on. In reality, natural resources are a gift. Our money system only sorts out who gets what. Money does not produce natural resources. The surprising thing is the unexpected short duration of the oil age. Granted, 200 years is a long time, but it can be measured in generations.

Also, the average age was much lower in 1957 then it is now. There were more children born in 1955 in the United States than in any other year up to the present; there must have been oodles of kids running around, not to mention young parents. In Cincinnati the population of the city limits peaked about 1955, so the city was as full as it ever was. Sure, strip malls and shopping centers were starting to show up, but the 8 lane arterial highways hadn't been thought of yet. It seems that everyone had a positive attitude, unlike all the gloom and doom of today. The suburbs of the 1950's must have been really nice. Little did they know what was coming.

Even if ANWR is developed, our total oil production will STILL decline because ANWR will be offset by declines in our other oil fields. ANWR will do nothing to reduce our dependence on foreign oil; we will use all of the oil available to us no matter where it comes from.

What if you find them photographing bricks? :-D

"How much longer can the cities in Ohio and the state itself sustain growth?" Until 2018, if you believe the U.S. Census projections and are speaking of population. Then, it's all decline for the foreseeable future.

Over 50% of the cost of operating buses is the salary of the driver. So, the bigger the vehicle, the less it costs to operate on a per passenger basis, assuming it is full. Believe it or not, the earliest cable cars in Cincinnati held 12 passengers and had a crew of two, for a ratio of 1 crew to 6 people. Not much different than a minivan! Other factors related to the technology influence the cost also. For example, light rail vehicles take less energy to move on level ground because the coefficient of friction for steel wheels on steel rails is less than that for rubber tires on asphalt. On the flip side, buses do not require the maintenance of rails or power distribution systems. Which is cheaper to operate overall? It probably depends mostly on the length of route. For any given route, passenger load, and time frame, it can be calculated which technology will have the lower operating cost. But keep in mind that the salary of the driver is the single biggest operating expense. If the driver is sitting in traffic, it doesn't do anyone any good. Light rail may have an advantage if it is on an exclusive right of way, but that is not unique to light rail. Both buses and light rail can run on either public right of way or exclusive right of way. ---------- Just for fun, can you name the only passenger light rail system in Cincinnati? It's the Delta Train at the airport. It is a short route, and it has NO DRIVER. People do not hesitate to use it.

^That agrees with my earlier comment about paying for gasoline. Am I the only one who fills up the tank when I buy gasoline? It used to be so easy. I filled up the tank and then I paid. Now I have to pay first, pump the gas, and stand in line a second time to get my change. Gas station clerks seem to have a really hard time with this, too. Newspaper articles say that more people are stealing gasoline now that the prices are high. Also, some gas stations would not accept $100 bills or $50 bills. Buying gasoline has turned into a hassle that just wasn't there 3 years ago.

Here's a link to a resource I just came across on the web. It's the classic oil production curve up to the present that we have all seen before, but this one is large, available in poster form. The scale of oil use throughout history and by region is startling. http://www.oilposter.org/

Thanks for the photos.

My grandfather on my mother's side lived on Powers street in Cumminsville, now known as south Cumminsville or even Northside. His father was a Cincinnati policeman and owned the first car in the neighborhood around 1917. "We didn't have a crapper, but we had a car!" Powers Street was cut off from the rest of the city in the 1937 flood. As the waters were rising, the Cincinnati Fire Department spread their equipment around to areas that would be cut off. My grandfather built a raft during the 1937 flood. My grandfather had a number of interesting jobs. In one, he set bowling pins by hand. In another, he was paid an extra $0.25 to ride a slide in the dark in a 5 story warehouse at the end of the day to clear out any orders that were stuck on the slide. He had some good stories. He rode the streetcar to Chester Park, where there was a guy who would give you $1000 if you could make him laugh. "No one ever made him laugh." He snuck into the circus in the vacant lot next to the Ludlow Viaduct, and built and rode the tobaggan run on Cass street every winter. "People came from all over the city to ride," he said. "I was a driver. You sit in front and steer with one ice skate. That all ended when they started salting the streets." His uncle Jacob drove a team and wagon from "the terminal" downtown to Norwood and took all day to make the trip and return. When grandfather was 14, they added indoor plumbing to their home on Powers street, "and that was so nice." Grandfather worked at the Brighton Bank at the corner of Colerain and Harrison (Yes, it exists!), from where he delivered money to a branch bank in Westwood by streetcar. That's where he met my grandmother, who worked at the bank in Westwood. My grandmother grew up on a 10 acre family farm in Bridgetown. It was in the family as early as 1915. Over the years, pieces were cut out of it and sold, but all of them went to family members. My mother had 50 cousins, all living within 200 feet! Eventually, the remainder of the farm was developed into a subdivision, with many of the lots being distributed to family members. My grandparents got one lot, and lived there from about 1960 to the end. I still have relatives in the area, on the original farm land, but they are gradually dying out or moving away. My father was born in Toledo, so I have a tie there. His father died when he was young, and he lived in an orphanage for a while, and eventually was adopted by a couple on the east side of Cincinnati. My (adopted) grandfather's family came from a family farm in Amelia, and my (adopted) grandmother's family came from Covington. She was the only woman to work at a company of 100 or more people in Covington. I have a photo of her at her desk with two phones - not one phone with multiple lines, but two phones. Funny! Her building was flooded in 1937.

Just for historical perspective: "Mile's Greenwood's manufactory, well known as the Eagle Iron Works, on the corner of Canal and Walnut streets, extending northwardly to Twelfth street, easterwardly to Main, on to the west to Jackson street, embraces in its operations, besides its iron and brass founderies, machine shops, a steam heating department, etc., and gives constant employment to about five hundred hands, its operations having never been suspended for a single business day since its establishment in 1832." -Cincinnati in 1859, Charles Cist 500 employees in one block of Over-the-Rhine! Can you imagine? Will we EVER have that density of people again? I don't think these people commuted more than 3 miles away, either.

"For all of us, it’s once again time to roll up our sleeves and get to work." So, uh, where do we start? :?

I suspect that older folks will stay at home in their suburban homes and do very little travelling. That's what my grandfather did in the last 10 years of his life. In fact, it became easier for him to have relatives deliver groceries than to take him shopping. He quit driving at about 85, though the car was still in the garage until the end. There is a high percentage of older folks in the first ring suburbs. I suspect that those places are really going to hurt in the next 30 years.

The Citgo article is interesting. If I'm not mistaken, doesn't Citgo serve markets in out-of-the-way places? Of the possible scenarios, I am leaning toward one where rural areas lose their oil supply first, and cities hold on longer. Think of those combination gas stations and general stores that still use old style pumps that you see on trips to the small towns.

^--- Good point. The same goes for using mass transit, etc. Immigrants from Hong Kong are used to that style of living. Someone who grew up on a farm or in the suburbs in Ohio is not. As for the free market comment, keep in mind that it's not really a free market. Typically, cities in Ohio have income taxes but townships do not. You might not think a 1 or 2 percent tax is significant, but it is. It is not the only factor, yet it is an important one. In Cincinnati, some commercial and industrial spaces are being converted to residential. This is good news for downtown if you are rooting for high population as measured by the Census. However, residential is a less intense use than commercial. Filling an empty building with condos is great, but probably results in less activity on the street than what was there originally.

I have a recreational kayak. It is about 9.5 feet long and 2 feet wide. It is short and stable as kayaks go. It is not the fastest boat at Paddlefest by far. It cost me about $300. I bought a high end paddle, however, for about $80. The best boat is not the biggest or the fastest or the most expensive; it's the one you use the most. I may get another, faster boat in the future. I go on about 10 trips a year, either in my canoe or kayak. The typical trip ranges from 2 to 16 miles. I have been only slightly sore from sitting in the boat with legs out straight. My kayak has adjustable foot pegs. I have been worn out from paddling, or from carrying the boat. Sometimes the hardest part of the trip is getting the boat back and forth from the vehicle to the water. If you are going to by a boat, or a pair of boats, take into consideration the vehicle you will be hauling it on. I mounted some rings on my vehicle to tie the boat. I bought my kayak from D&D outfitters in Springdale. All boats have to be registered. I think each of my boats cost about $5 a year for Ohio registration. There's a yahoo group called cincypaddlers that has outings nearly every week in the summer on the Great Miami, Little Miami, Licking, Ohio, etc., as well as trips farther away. The Mill Creek Yacht Club has a couple of trips on the Mill Creek every year. There is an event coming up that's similar to Paddlefest but on a smaller scale, from Aurora, Indiana to Rising Sun, Indiana.

^---- Maybe the larger vehicles don't feel as fast. That is, the smaller the tires and the closer to the ground your eyes are, the faster it feels for a given speed. A little motor scooter might feel unsafe at 35; An Escalade is just so smooth and heavy it still feels safe at 90.