Eigth and State

Ohio Population Summary Ohio has 11,500,000 people according to the 2000 Census. There are four components to population change. They are births, deaths, immigration, and emigration. The formula is: Population change from year A to year B = births - deaths + immigration - emigration. In Ohio, the birth rate is low and dropping; the death rate is low and rising; immigration and emigration are fairly small and about equal. The birth rate is still higher than the death rate. That means that we had more babies this year than funerals. But, since we are having fewer and fewer babies every year, and at the same time more and more funerals every year, at some point those two numbers have to meet. The Census has estimated that year as 2018. That's right: in 2018 the State of Ohio will peak in population. In 2019 we will begin losing population. Rounding off to the nearest Census year, Ohio will peak in 2020. Since we are only 13 years from the peak, and are on the flat part on the top of a very gradual curve, you might as well say that we are peaking now. We are only 400,000 people, over the whole state, from our all-time high, at least for the foreseeable future. Go to the Census web site yourself and look it up. -- ---------- The next question is a more detailed look at cities. Within Ohio, people are moving from one place to another. The general statement is this: People are moving from the cities to the suburbs. People are also moving from the rural areas to the suburbs. "Moving" does not necessarily imply that a family packed up their stuff, sold their house, and moved to a new one. It could also mean that the birth and death rates are not constant across the state. The birth rate will be higher in places with lots of young couples, such as new subdivisions. The death rate will be higher in places with lots of old people. Of the 88 counties, roughly half lost population between 1990 and 2000. About 1/4 gained, and 1/4 were stable. We know where the "growth" areas are, but is this "growth" beneficial when it is accompanied by decline somewhere else? I guess it depends on who you are.

Oxford is a main street town. Functionally, the park only forms a wider street, and unfortunately, just adds a lot of dead space. The parking lot behind the amphiteater doesn't help.

The value of petroleum is it's convenience. There are other energy sources, but they are less convenient. It would, for example, be possible to run a stirling engine from a solar heat collector to generate electricity to power an electric car, but it's easier to burn gasoline. Solar energy is not "free." You have to invest in equipment to capture it. So, when someone claims to have a solution in technology, you have to ask if the system is better or worse than what we have now. The internal combustion engine is hard to beat, as long as petroleum is available.

^Sounds like a new version of the stirling engine, which is over a hundred years old. The stirling engine runs by alternatively heating and cooling a gas inside a closed system. The expanding gas pushes a piston. It can run on any heat source, but also requires a heat sink. Compared to an internal combustion engine, the stirling engine can have less emmissions, is more efficient, and is more quiet. Then why don't we use it? The drawback is that the throttle does not respond as quickly as an internal combustion engine. The stirling engine is used in some applications, but not in transportation. ------------- Anyone hear Bush's energy speech where he is calling for people to conserve gasoline by driving less? This is big news.

Just for fun, let us suppose that today all of the automakers began making cars that get 100 mpg, and are equivalent to today's normal cars in every other way. Today's cars average around 25 miles per gallon, so these new cars will cut our energy use by 1/4, right? Wrong! People will either drive more often, drive farther, drive heavier, or, given enough time, have more kids and therefore buy more cars. This is what happened in the 1970's. Cars became more fuel efficient, yet we are using more fuel than ever! Basicly, people use as much fuel as they have access to. If fuel were cheap, I wouldn't mind flying to Hawaii more often! Back in the steam age, an economist studied the effects of more efficient steam engines. He found that as efficiency went up, so did coal use, because people built more steam engines. This is known as Jevon's Paradox. Maybe as oil peaks and declines, better fuel efficiency will allow people to maintain their present lifestyle longer, but ultimately, oil production is controlled by how fast it can be pumped out of the ground, not by fuel efficiency of vehicles.

Jake, you are absolutely correct about military use of oil. In fact, you could be opening a can of worms. Oil extraction is largely a government run business, and so is the military. In fact, I have heard that the U.S. Navy is the largest consumer of oil. Can anyone verify? Also, there is a second oil region in Alaska that is approximately equivalent to ANWR that was supposed to be reserved for the navy. Not only does it take oil to fuel the war machines, but it also takes vast amounts of energy to produce the machines. There is no substitute for oil in aircraft. Since this is an Ohio site, just look at how many military related things are part of our economy.

This has been studied before. See the 1907 Kessler plan, Cincinnati Hillside Development Guidelines by the Cincinnati Planning Commission, 1975, etc. Regardless of any plans or studies, things still happen. Two examples of views that I am sorry we lost were the view of the Roebling Bridge from Dixie Terminal, blocked by the Freedom Center, and the view down Ninth Street blocked by the bridge connecting the two parts of the library. Historically, the view down fifth street before the present fountain square plaza and Dubois Tower (5/3 building) were built must have been awesome. Zoning for views is a tough job because it is so subjective and interferes with property rights. It sounds like this particular study was the result of a particular development that blocked someone's view.

I saw some of those Chevron ads in magazines. While they didn't mention the words "peak oil," they essentially admitted that oil is being extracted faster than it is being discovered.

There are existing trees on the site, but I don't remember them being as big as the ones in the photos. Also, it seems to sit back from the street too far. They want to have an underground parking garage, yet they plant lots of grass between the building and the street. This site is walking distance from the university, and as parking is scarce, I don't think many students will be driving from here to classes. The Stewart School was just recently torn down, by the way. The 1950's school replaced an earlier c. 1870 school on the same site.

You are correct. There is no other proper name that I know of. There is another interchange of I-71/I-75 and I-275 in Kentucky, but most people call the overlapped portion of those two highways I-75 rather than I-71. Your turn.

For the highway fans: name the interchange. http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=39.271467,-84.351268&spn=0.008680,0.012394&t=k&hl=en

Good one! If I were to guess, I would say it's the home of the aircraft maintenance program of Cincinnati State Technical and Community College near Harrison, Ohio.

What long term solutions? If Simmons is right, by 2030 we will only have available 1/4 of our current oil extraction! The only "solution" is to use less oil.

My favorite line from that article goes something like this: Today, the world is producing 80 million barrels of oil per day. By 2030, we will be producing perhaps 20 million barrels of oil per day. Folks, this is a big, big deal!

There was a Shaker settlement in the area. Some of the property was eventually aquired by the Hamilton County Park District, with the goal of preservation. However, the park district has gotten itself into a little bit of a pickle, as the buildings haven't been restored and are gradually becoming run down. The Park District opened an 8 mile bike trail loop known as Shaker Trace in the area. Here's what the Miami Purchase Association for Preservation says about the Skaker Village: The Whitewater Skaker Villlage features the finest collection of Shaker architecture in Ohio. In 1770 Mother Ann Lee, of Manchester, England, became the spiritual leader of the United Society of Believers in Christ's Second Coming, commonly known as the Shakers. Ther were called "Shakers" because of a rhythemic, shuffling dance they preformed during religious ceremonies. At such times they often became "affected under the power of God with a mighty shaking ... singing, shouting, and walking the floor under the influence of spiritual signs." In 1774 Mother Ann Lee and her followers fled persecution in England, arriving at Watervliet, New York to establish the first Shaker settlement in America. The Shakers lived in communal societies, supporting themselves through farming, furniture making, light manufacturing and seed production. They practised strict celibacy; marriage was prohibited and men and women lived in separate dwelling houses. The Shakers attracted new members through conversions and by adopting orphans, who could accept or deny the Church at maturity. The religious order eventually founded 19 villages from Maine to Indiana, and by the 1850's numbered over 6,000 adherants. Each village received a spiritual name. Whatiewater was called "The Lonely Plain of Tribulation." Founded in 1824 by leaders from the Union Village Shaker colony in Lebanon, Ohio, the Whitewater Village began with 18 members, several cabins, and 40 acres of land. The village grew through the years to include 200 members and over 1,400 acres of farmland. At its peak the village consisted of three "families", North, Center and South. By 1870 the Shaker movement began to decline, both locally and nationally. Membership at the Whitewater Village waned and the land was gradually sold off. The last Shakers left Whitewater in 1916. All of the structures that remain today are on the National Register of Historic Places.

Name the park in the center of the photo. http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=39.261101,-84.479456&spn=0.010259,0.020099&t=k&hl=en

Umm, Colerain Township? Or did you have a more specific location in mind?

The Wright Aeronautical Plant, aka General Electric Aircraft Engines. http://maps.google.com/maps?ll=39.232552,-84.548421&spn=0.008684,0.011701&t=k&hl=en

It's been said that the airline industry is a pet project of members of Congress since they are always using it, travelling back and forth from home to Washington, D.C. The airline industry is not going to last forever. In fact, based on projections for oil production, I would expect it to be practically gone in 100 years or less. What happens between now and then I don't know, but I would not be surprised if the airline industry, measured in passenger miles per year, is at it's all time high right now. It only makes sense that the industry has to start downsizing.

New Baltimore

Sorry to bring bad news but analysts have been calling for one of the major airlines to go bankrupt for several years now. So, if Delta leaves, it may not be replaced. The airline industry has grown every year up to 2001, when it started shrinking. We may be reaching a peak here. See also the peak oil thread. On another note, Delta has been losing a billion dollars a year. How can any company do that and get away with it?

As Colday says, Over-the-Rhine is a LARGE neighborhood, and varies quite a bit from one end to the other. There are some areas that are improving, and some that are not.

^That's a great story! The clerk probably was used to typing 2's instead of 3's. I hear that in Canada, with gasoline measured in litres and prices in Canadian dollars, they have recently passed the $1.00 mark. However, gas price signs often have only two digits, so they are either putting up temporary signs or just ignoring the 1. This happened in the U.S.A. in the 1970's. Looks like people are seriously starting to change their behavior toward consuming gasoline. Folks, I don't know what prices will do in the near future, but it does seem that it will certainly be interesting!

Sorry, I got excited there. After a little research it seems that prices vary widely across Atlanta, ranging from $2.47 to $4.87 for regular, according to atlantagasprices.com. Even so, $4.87 is shocking, and only a year ago people were whining about $1.90! You can talk about peak oil and conservation and finite resources and all that all you want but if you really want to get people's attention, start talking about gas prices.

Maximillian - how would you like to live in Atlanta? Gasoline is selling for over $5.00 a gallon there. In fact, there's a photo going around the internet of a BP sign showing $6.06 for premium.