Eigth and State

Yes, in the short term. People choose what kind of car to drive, where to work, where to live, where to send their kids to school, where to go on vacation, and - heres a biggie - how many children to have, based on gasoline prices. Most of these are long-term decisions that cannot be changed easily. If gasoline prices changed to $10 a gallon tomorrow, it wouldn't make that much difference in commuting patterns this week, because people will dip into their savings or draw down the reserves - including by driving with gasoline already in the gas tank - in the short term. In the long term, gasoline prices make a huge difference. If you can't afford to drive to your job, then something's got to change.

My dad worked at a stone quarry in Ohio for a while and discovered lots of little pockets in the rock containing oil - a cup here, a cup there, just enough to stain your clothes over there. If you add all these little pockets together, you get millions of barrels - but who can afford to drill for a cup of oil? It will cost you more in energy than you can get out of it. Oil formations that are economically recoverable happen to occur when a single drilling operation can recover enough oil to pay the drilling cost and then some. Often, these are in porous rock formations such as sandstone where the oil can flow through the rock to the drill head and be pumped out. Note that the PRICE of oil turns up on both sides of the equation. Suppose that it costs you $1500 to drill a hole, and you can recover oil worth $1000. That is not an economically recoverable resource. It is often said that if the price of oil were to rise, so that it will pay $2000, then it will be economically recoverable. But don't forget that if the price of oil rises, the cost of drilling will likely rise as well, and it STILL won't be recoverable. Naturally, the oil that was easy to get to was recovered first, and it's getting harder and harder to find a well that pays.

A typical cost for a water or sewer manhole is around $3000 - but that's not the issue. The issue is water and sewer manholes are normally built directly over the lines for access, and to move the manholes it is required to move the entire utility line with it. On top of that, it is not just the actual tracks that conflict with the manoles, but the overhead wire above. According to an expert from Portland, anything less than 10 feet from the centerline of track to the manhole is considered unsafe, so in effect the streetcar demands a 20' wide strip cleared of utilities. Sure, there are ways to get around the problem, but it's fair to say that it's going to cost multiple $millions to address utilities, and the utilities are not excited about spending $millions, and the utilities relocation portion of the streetcar budget as outlined in the feasibility study wasn't enough to cover it.

^--- Well Duh. When it cost more to drive, people drive less. A lot of the media focus is on people's personal lives. How are folks coping with high gasoline prices? They are driving less, combining trips, driving a smaller car, not taking a vacation, working from home, and cutting back on other things. But there are also people losing their jobs, because their customers are cutting back. The guy that doesn't drive to work at all because he got laid off is really saving a lot of gasoline. The truck driver who lost his job because the economy is down is really saving a lot of diesel fuel. The airplane pilot who lost his job is saving gasoline by the tanker full.

The reason why local streets and roads are impractical to toll is because people will detour around the toll collection places, or use the facility between toll places without paying. Tolled turnpikes were popular in the pioner days - many of our major routes started as toll roads - and it was remarked that there were invariably trails through the woods made by people going around the toll places. Routes without alternatives, such as bridges and tunnels, make excellent tolling places. Commercial airlines, ferries, and railroads that stop at only designated locations make good toll routes, but we use the word "fare" instead of toll. Limited access highways, with access only at ramps, are excellent candidates for toll routes. I am amazed at how well the New York Thruway system works, where the toll is based on which ramps one gets on and off. Some imagine the interstate highway system as a web of high speed roads linking the major cities and providing fast, regional transportation. However, the reality is that most traffic on the interstates is between two points in the same metropolitan area, and a good deal of it is suburban commuters. I suspect that if the interstates had been tolled appropriately from the beginning, much of the local use would be discouraged by the toll. I know people who use the interstate to get from home to the grocery store, which is ridiculous. An appropriate toll would also result in keeping traffic moving most of the time. I realize that the legislation for the interstates prohibits tolling on all but a few segments of the system. I would hope that we as a society can get beyond that. As an example of what could be done, I believe that removing the Covington ramps and improving the connections to the Clay Wade Bailey Bridge, and constructing a toll plaza in the vicinity of Kyles Lane in Kentucky that charged appropriate tolls adjusted for time of day and traffic, would solve all of the congestion problems on the Brent Spence Bridge and make a replacement bridge unnecessary. But yes, attempting to toll all roads is futile because of the cost of collecting countless tolls of small value.

^ But a high proportion of total miles travelled. In a typical city, the majority of miles are on local streets that carry hardly any traffic. County roads and urban arterials have a moderate number of miles of pavement and moderate traffic. Interstates and regional highways have a fairly small number of miles of pavement but a majority of miles driven.

^ Tolling on limited access highways, with a different rate for vehicle weight and for different sections of highway, would accomplish the same thing, wouldn't it? Also, if operators of limited access highways had to pay property tax like everybody else, they may not take so much valuable land. Two of the biggest "what if" questions of American History are what if the interstates had been tolled, and what if the interstates hadn't been built at all.

Thanks for posting those. I think that the following analysis is more telling: Portland Along Route: 18,257 -> 28,481 (+10224) City Total: 529,121 -> 583,776 (+54655) 19% of population increase in Portland happened along the streetcar route. Seattle: Along Route: 19,977 -> 27,440 (+7463) City Total: 563,374 -> 608,660 (+45286) 16% of population increase in Seattle happened along the streetcar route. Tacoma Along Route: 2924 -> 4,708 (+1784) City Total: 193,556 -> 198,397 (+4841) 37% of the population increase in Tacoma happened along the streetcar route. All three cities showed an overall population increase.

^Can you include the raw numbers also in addition to percents?

In my humble opinion, the project has a better chance of success if the business owners approached the city with an idea for a project, not the other way around. 5/3rd sponsored the fountain square project - one that I am very happy with, by the way - and paid the majority of the cost. Of course, 5/3rd had a financial incentive to do so, because it increased the value of their property and made their presence even more visible than it was before.

^ I read that as "$9 million is nothing if it's other people's money."

It is an advantage for a forklift to be heavy, so adding heavy batteries is not a disadvantage. While it is technically possible to run a streetcar with batteries, and there are example of it, it is telling that battery powered vehicles of any kind are very rare, even in automobiles, despite all the work done to promote them and environmental benefits. That said, anything that can be done to postpone the large capital cost of the streetcar would be an advantage. The streetcar could be run on batteries for ten years, say, and then switched to overhead electric. I would even consider a diesel vehicle. If there isn't one available, the streetcar could tow a diesel generator. Another idea to play around with is battery power on the level portions, regenerative braking on the downhill portions, and cable-driven power on the uphill portions, roller-coaster style. That way, a fixed power station at the top of Vine Street hill could provide the power for the most power-intensive part, the climb up the hill, saving weight required for big electric motors. Since the Vine Street hill would likely be a later phase, this works out nicely for sequencing. It would be complicated, though, and require a custom vehicle. But if you think about it, this is how the historic Cincinnati system got started, with horse-drawn vehicles on the level parts and cable cars or inclines on the hills. Less complicated but still requiring heavy motors would be overhead power on the uphill portion only, and battery power elsewhere. Funny that we are talking about battery power now, though, after so many studies have already been completed.

New open track on existing graded right-of-way costs about $1 million per mile, and track exists now all the way to the Coliseum. There is a graded right of way all the way to the football stadium - planners had the foresight to preserve it for a future route. Granted, the little plaza by the paddlewheel is in the way. Anyway, if the track couldn't be extended, just end it at the Coliseum. The idea was supposed to be a PROMOTION, not viable transportation. I bet that the there would be enough tourists to fill it up at least for a week or so. The streetcar study quotes $20 million per mile or thereabouts for track. The reason it is so high is because of the difficulty of constructing rail in the street - especially one as congested with utilities as in downtown Cincinnati or Over-the-Rhine. Also, a good amount of the cost is in urban design elements - new curbs, etc. I'm not sure if the $20 million counts overhead wires or not, but those are obviously expensive.

It takes money. If the city takes the strategy of using federal dollars, then it also takes a few years worth of environmental studies and so on. So, a streetcar vehicle costs a few million dollars. The city has already spent that much in studies and engineering. Why not purchase a streetcar, place it on the existing Oasis line near the boathouse, tow a diesel generator to supply power, and make a demonstration project out of it? Extend the tracks to the football stadium, and shuttle people around on game days. Get some good exposure, and some postcard views. Build interest. If it's successful, build track on a more useful route, and move the streetcar there in the future. If not, then the city is only out a few million dollars instead of $120 million. I know the techicalities are more complicated than that, but a project of this scale is very affordable. It need not be a permanant installation; maybe the streetcar manufacturer could loan a vehicle for a short time. If funding for the expenses could be found, I bet that streetcar supporters could volunteer to provide much of the labor, and there seems to be enough talent on this board to perform at least some of the work. Just a thought.

^There are a number of products produced from a barrel of crude petroleum, including gasoline, diesel, and even asphalt. The refinery has a little control over the proportion of each one, so if gasoline prices are high while diesel prices are low, the refinery can produce a little more gasoline and a little less diesel. All of the refineries are continuously adjusting to meet market conditions. At the same time, consumers of petroleum products are always adjusting their consumption to meet prices. (If I am buying a new work truck, should I buy a gasoline or diesel truck?) Distributors including the big shipping companies are always in the market for the buyer with the highest offer. Big producers such as Saudi Arabia are constantly adjusting the amount that they extract out of the ground. Disruptions in the chain, such as Hurrican Ike which shut down most Gulf refineries and ports, send waves through the entire system. The weather affects use of petroleum products, as a lot of folks heat with oil, and more people take trips in good weather. Meanwhile, someone is always trying to make a buck by betting on future prices. There are way too many variables to predict the future price of petroleum products. Analysts did, however, call for $4.00 a gallon gasoline by this spring, and they were right. Short term predictions for gasoline at retail can be made simply by watching the wholesale prices.

This one was raised on a platform but many of this type are flush (he he he) with the floor. The squarish part on either side of the bowl is for one's feet. The dipping bucket is for flushing. <img src="http://i98.photobucket.com/albums/l258/GabrielsPlace/thailandbest/P1130442.jpg" alt="" class="bbc_img" />

Before the Vine Street Kroger was renovated, it was really dumpy. It's tough to shake a reputation.

Jake, thanks for the excellent review.

^Yes, but the cow might eat your neighbor's flowers. They propably won't like that. :-D

"Why would anyone need to go outside of OTR or Downtown for groceries? What are people buying that they can't get downtown somewhere? Just to clarify, most grocery stores carry upwards of 50,000 items - for downtown what's the big miss? Is it just that shoppers like the atmosphere of huge stores?" There are basicly two models for grocery stores. One is the neighborhood corner grocery store, and one is the suburban big box. Both have their advantages and disadvantages. The two models promote two very different lifestyles. the neighborhood shopper tends to make more short trips and purchase fewer items. The suburban big box shopper makes fewer trips but needs a vehicle to carry more groceries and more room at home to store them. Either way, if one has grown accustomed to one lifestyle, it is not necessarily easy to switch to the other. The typical suburban big box shopper expects to be able to drive from the store to her front door just steps away from the kitchen. The urban shopper can't get to the big box without a car, and doesn't want to carry 10 bags of groceries up the steps.

The cost of building new roads and maintaining roads is a small cost when compared to the total cost of all government, but it is still an significant cost.

"Which probably puts you in the 95th percentile or higher of walkers." Yeah, I know. It drives me crazy when I'm riding in a car and the driver drives round and round in a parking lot trying to find the closest space.

On the uselfulness of the OTR loop: Thinking way back to when I first heard of this streetcar proposal, my first impression was that it would be nearly useless, at least to me. Why? Because if I wanted to travel from the Music Hall area of OTR to downtown, I would probably walk instead of ride the streetcar. I regularly walk that distance.

Thanks for posting.

^Cash flow doesn't have to come from the users. It can come from any source. If you think that the cash flow SHOULD come from the users, then that's a different discussion altogether. The cash flow for the stadiums in Cincinnati doesn't all come from the users. In addition to ticket sales, parking revenues, etc., the cash flow comes from the Hamilton County sales tax. Is that "Fair"? There are 80,000 voters in Hamilton County that think it's not fair. But the sales tax got passed, and the stadiums got built. The business plan included the sale of bonds backed by projected sales tax revenue. Commercial banks bought the idea, and floated the bonds to raise the capital.