Eigth and State

"The streetcar amount barely pays for replacing a neighborhood's worth of combined sewers." No kidding. The EPA's policy on combined sewers has been a significant deterrent to new development in the core. I brought this up over a year ago in this very thread and was chided for being too negative.

"The suburbanites form their opinions on prejudices about the city, whereas we have legitimate judgments, not prejudgments, regarding the suburbs and their inhabitants." The more I know, the more I find out I don't know. Every time I become familar with a new area and it's political situation, I learn about some nuance of government or local culture that I didn't know before. No one understands everything about metro Cincinnati. It is too big and complicated for one person to understand.

If the feds didn't have so much power, then we would be living in a different world. The Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution gave the federal government the right to collect income taxes. It was passed in 1913. Can you imagine what life must have been like prior to 1913? From some of the historical threads on this site I think we can infer what it was like prior to 1913. The average citizen was more involved with his local government, rather than the federal government. If he lived in a city, he paid city taxes, and voted on city matters. Today the typical citizen pays a lot of taxes that go he knows not where.

"It's not that hard or expensive to repaint a street." If there was an emergency shoulder there already that can be painted for a bike lane, then no, that's not too bad. The emergency shoulder was underutilized space. If the street was already crowded, with or without parking lanes, then it can be extremely difficult to add bike lanes, because they will displace some other use. If the street has to be physically widened to add a bike lane, then it is very expensive.

I was thinking that a market study is one form of projection. Market studies for, say, a new brand of soap can be done by introducing the product to a sample market. Market studies for transportation services are not so simple.

"Isn't there a payroll tax for Cincinnati?" Yes there is, and I think it's 2.1%. Folks who live outside the city and are employed in the city get 2.1% docked from their paychecks. Businesses pay attention to this, and this is a significant reason why businesses locate outside of municipalities, because under state law municipalities can charge income taxes while townships cannot. This is a BIG deal and is probably several orders of magnitude more important than the streetcar ever will be.

Greater Cincinnati is indeed very fragmented and insular. One of our fine township governments got overwhelmed with complaints last winter when the County Engineer, who has a longstanding history of excellent work clearing snow, failed to do a respectable job. The township maintains township streets, and the county maintains county roads. Yet, residents complained to the township when their county roads were not maintained well. This tells me that residents do not know the difference between a county road and a township street, or else they thought that the township has responsibility over county roads. Here's the kicker: these same residents have been voting for township road levies for years! Doesn't this tell you what a delusion elections are? We are drifting off topic, but my original point was that the streetcar does NOT have general support outside of the core city.

"I wish this was moving along faster, and I don't mean the speed of the trains." This isn't the first time the 3-C line has been brought up. It was seriously considered in the 1980's, but nothing came of it.

We really can't know the true ridership of the 3-C unless we actually build it and count passengers. Going back to DanB's post, he is not concerned about which demographic group will ride it. He is concerned that there will not be enough riders to justify the service, and it will fail. I showed in a previous post that based on the published projections, it would be more cost-effective for the state to initiate a new bus service between the 3-C's, and by running the buses to Downtown Cincinnati it would solve all of the routing problems there. Since the proposed 3-C line is not cost-effective now, in my mind, the question becomes whether or not demand for the 3-C line will increase to justify upgrading to high-speed rail in the future. The best we can do is make projections based on experience in other areas, and even at that, no one knows for sure because no one knows what the price of gasoline, the economy, population, etc., will be in the future. It all comes down to preferences and making a case.

Well, the City of Cincinnati does control the Cincinnati Water Works, Metropolitan Sewer District, and big regional events such as Riverfest, Tall Stacks, etc. The City of Cincinnati has a majority control of Queen City Metro buses. The City of Cincinnati has a strong influence on the Cincinnati Public School District, which by the way is not limited to Cincinnati. The Public Library of Cincinnati and Hamilton County receives funds from suburban tax payers and carries the Cincinnati name. The Cincinnati Enquirer, Cincinnati Bell, (former) Cincinnati Gas and Electric Company, Greater Cincinnati airport, Cincinnati Reds, Cincinnati Bengals and more are private companies that carry the Cincinnati name. A lot of suburban residents have Cincinnati mailing addresses. So, the City of Cincinnati still has a heavy influence on suburban residents outside of the municipal boundaries. Quite frankly, a lot of folks don't understand the municipal boundaries. Back during the 2001 riots, when Mayor Luken called for a curfew, a lot of suburban residents stayed home just because they didn't know any better. So yes, suburban residents see Cincinnati as calling the shots, whether for good or bad.

"I'm curious to know how such data would be obtained formally." You can sit alongside I-71 and count people yourself. As long as you have a decent reputation for honesty and you use valid methods, your data should be trusted. If you don't think your data will be trusted or if you don't want to do it yourself, you can commission a study from a traffic engineering firm. They will put one of their interns in a chair along I-71 with some kind of tallying device and count people for you, and give you a report in a pretty binder. None of this stuff is hard; it just takes time.

In general, I'm not in favor of bike lanes. Ideally, bicycles should be able to travel in a normal traffic lane.

"Should Mason or West Chester fret over what Cincinnati residents think of their current projects? No." This is why I think that streetcar supporters do not necessarily understand the culture of Mason and West Chester. This isn't just a city project. If federal funds are being used, it is a federal project, that draws from federal income taxes. Mason and West Chester folks pay a lot of federal income tax, and they see the streetcar as part of the reason why their taxes are so high. Do they have a real issue? In the big picture, the streetcar is just a drop in the bucket compared to the federal budget, not to mention the funds that the fed have spent on highways in the Mason and West Chester area. The budgets of various levels of government are so complicated that I don't know if anyone really understands it - but everyone seems to think that they are paying more than their fair share of taxes. So, if Cincinnati gets a big grant from the feds, Mason and West Chester don't sit back and say, "I don't care either way. I don't live in the city;" they say, "Hey, the City just spend $100 million of MY tax money in a failed neighborhood." Anyway, there is a resentment between the city and the suburbs, and for the most part neither side can really see the other's perspective.

I don't oppose the streetcar. I am skeptical that it will actually get built, but I don't oppose it. Now that the city has passed a bond issue, I think it has a higher probability of being built, but it still isn't certain. The city has a lot of other problems besides just transportation, and those problems are deep. There's a reason why the city has lost residents and jobs other than the fact that a lot of families want a house with a yard. In my humble opinion, the city would do well to address some of those other problems first, and then maybe they would have the revenue to build a streetcar without having to depend on outside funding sources. Borrowing money makes a good business better, but it makes a bad business worse. Which category do you think the City of Cincinnati falls under?

"What, are they afraid the city might improve?" No, they are afraid that the city will decline further. If the streetcar attracts riders, results in new development, enhances property values, and displaces the underclass, then the streetcar will have been a resounding success. If the streetcar does not attract riders, does not result in new development, requires a steady subsidy to operate, and becomes a moving homeless shelter, then it will have been a dismal failure, and actually CONTRIBUTE to more urban decline. A small minority believes in the second scenario, and is vocal about it. These are the folks that submit comments to the Enquirer. Most people outside of the core don't know much about it and couldn't care less. Then again, most people outside the core have never riden a Metro bus in their entire lives. It really is a different world, with a different culture. They are not stupid, but have a different life experience.

They don't want light rail or anything. They think that a streetcar to OTR is a phenominally dumb idea. They think that it really IS their money, since they pay federal taxes, and a lot of them. They think that the urban core is basicly a failed system. Whether they are right or not is another issue, but that's what they think, and from the material on this forum, my conclusion is that most of the posters on this forum have no idea what the feelings are outside of the core. "I think we know. We just don't care." Then why all the griping about Enquirer comments etc?

It doesn't have to be money. Any reward will help. Otherwise, why bother?

Well, the streetcar supporters definitely know more about streetcars than the opposition. On the other hand, I don't think the streetcar supporters have any clue about how the rest of the metro area away from the core views the streetcar project.

^nah, Sharonville is the best option to minimize construction / reconstruction of new infrastructure. That's only one factor, of course.

What kind of operation was expected for reversing the train at Cincinnati? A loop? Wye? Run the locomotive to the other end of the train? Push-pull? Controls at both ends? Berry Yard might not be a bad option from an operations point of view.

"Also, does anyone know where Winburn is getting his numbers? Today he said it would cost over 200 mil. The other day he inflated it even higher" I don't know where his numbers came from but as a reality check no one really knows yet what this will cost. It is way too early in the design for a proper cost estimate, regardless of what previous studies have said.

"Support the city they supposedly represent?" It is very common for City of Cincinnati city council members to move on to county commissioner or state representative or other offices. I have to imagine that some City of Cincinnati city council members are looking for support from voters outside of the city, even though they represent city voters now. Plus, campaign supporters don't necessarily have to be city voters. Assuming that the Enquirer is not itself biased but prints letters that represent a sample of all letters received, it is clear that the suburban readership is opposed to the streetcar.

"No place can commit to a project if they don't have the funds to build it." Some local governments have their act together and some don't. There are municipalities out there that collect loads of money from the state and feds. They do it by "leveraging" their own resources - they spend money to make money. For example, a municipality might higher a full time employee to apply for grants. Say they pay him $100,000 a year, and he brings in $1,000,000 a year in grants - that's a positive ratio from the municipality's point of view, even if he only gets one grant per year. Of course you have to have the seed money to play this game. If you can't come up with $100,000, indeed you are stuck in a catch-22. A realistic plan to get this streetcar funded is to come up with $20 million and hire a consulting firm to design the project and apply for grants. Maybe it will get designed but the grant won't come through and the project won't get built. That's the chance you take. But it might work. On the other hand, if you can't come up with the $20 million, you are really fighting an uphill battle. "Here is a listing of opening day populations...." That's nice information to have, but it doesn't matter. It is not the job of the feds or state to step in and solve your problems for you. If you think that your country would be served well by a streetcar in your neighborhood, you need to come up with a plan and sell it to the feds or state. Work already done and a real plan to move forward is favored well by the folks in charge of writing grants. It takes a lot of work to properly apply for a grant.

One way to play the state and federal grant game is to come up with the money for design, and actually design the project before applying for grants. That way, there is a clear understanding of what the project is, and a much better cost estimate. I've seen this trick done for street improvement projects. Design is typically 5 to 10% of project costs, so the streetcar should take somewhere around $20 million to design. If for some reason the project is designed but never built, the city would be out $20 million.

^--- Wow! John Carey accuses Parson's Brinkerhoff of DELIBERATELY underestimating costs on the Big Dig in Boston in order to persuade officials to award the design contract to PB.