Eigth and State

A rail connection to CVG is unlikely. The current passenger traffic doesn't support it, and air traffic is likely to decline from here. Plus, CVG would likely make more money on parking revenue anyway. Ironically, the airport train is the closest thing to rail transit that we have.

In the long run, I would count on airline traffic to do nothing but decline. Peak oil is real, and while there are so many unknowns, I can't imagine anything that will keep the airline industry alive. At least cars, rail vehicles, and ships can run on other sources of energy, such as electric batteries, electric wires, or coal. The only hope for airlines is to run on petroleum derived from coal, which will be necessarily more expensive than straight coal. CVG doesn't get enough traffic now to justify a rail connection to downtown. How would it ever justify one in the future? Also, one could argue that a connection to downtown would only shift business to downtown away from the airport area. Kentucky isn't likely to approve of that.

"Don't you guys get bored with this conversation?" No. I enjoy it immensely.

True, but we can't change history. I often wonder what OTR would look like if some of the existing development in West Chester, Florence, etc., had occurred in OTR instead. In my humble opinion, what is more important than the streetcar is Cincinnati's development policy. Government on all levels has encouraged auto oriented sprawl development in areas away from the core. The City of Cincinnati, meaning the folks headquarted at City Hall on Plum Street, have the opportunity to control some of this, but much of it is out of their control. Going forward, I would certainly like to see a streetcar but I don't think that Metro Cincinnati is going to change all that much. We can build a streetcar more easily than we can change development policies.

Also, in the early days of aviation no one knew what to expect in the future. The Cincinnati Metropolitan Master Plan of 1948 recommended 9 (!) airports to serve Cincinnati. All of them would have been smaller to serve smaller aircraft. It was assumed that aircraft ownership by private individuals would be widespread, like automobile ownership. Of course, we know that in addition to military and commercial cargo, most aircraft use is commercial passenger travel rather than private. Only a minority of people own their own planes. Numerous small airfields have disappeared. One of them became Northgate Mall. Today, CVG takes most of the big commercial flights, Lunken takes corporate jets and smaller commercial flights, and Blue Ash takes private owners. Lunken had every advantage in historical head starts; American Airlines was born at Lunken, and Lindburgh landed there. Lunken just didn't have room to expand and was subject to flooding.

^---- Calm down, bro'. The streetcar isn't that big of a deal. The majority of the population could care less. The streetcar isn't going to make or break Cincinnati's future. Smitherman and co. are putting on a sideshow. I don't know what their motivation is; maybe Smitherman just wants attention, or maybe he knows something that we don't know. The real issue is the city budget. If the city had enough cash on hand, we would be riding the streetcar instead of talking about ballot initiatives. Peak oil is going to change EVERYTHING. You can't really say that cities with transit are going to do better than cities without transit. For example, what will happen to Portland when petroleum-based international shipping declines? No one knows.

^---- The discussion of hydrogen reinforces the fact that gasoline is the ideal fuel.

It looks like a hand-painted postcard, and this particular angle shows the trees on the riverbank. I like it.

It's hard to imagine any kind of transit oriented development co-existing with the auto-oriented sprawl. They are polar opposites. Some of those motorways in the Union Centre area are six lanes wide. No one wants to walk across that street. The NS and CSX line sbetween Cincinnati and Hamilton are operated as a pair of one-way tracks, improving efficiency for both railroads. Amtrak does not follow this convention, however.

Another thing about the subway is that Cincinnati had 7 or 8 interurban railroads that didn't have access to downtown. The Cincinnati and Lake Erie, for example, went all the way to Toledo at speeds up to 90 mph, but frustratingly ended at Northside, forcing passengers to take a bus to complete the trip downtown. The subway would have connected all of the interurbans to the loop. In fact, it was expected that the subway would have been operated by the interurbans. Of course, WWI intervened, and by the time the dust had settled, all of the interurbans were out of business. Automobile use was rising fast, and there just wasn't interest in completing it.

Ohio Revised Code chapter 4951 Street Railways and Interurban Railroads is the legal basis for streetcars. I don't expect a streetcar or interurban company to start up today, but if there was a need for one, the rules are still on the books.

Utilities in this country are heavily influenced by government even if they are called private utilities.

"People often say that government should be run like a business. If you truly believe that then you need to view the taxpayers and citizens as investors and customers within your community." Ideally, yes. "Should" is the key word. In reality, city governments do all kinds of things to drive away customers. Governments often do the OPPOSITE of what they should. I'm not trying to lecture on governments. I'm just saying that the City of Cincinnati as well as other jurisdictions are driving businesses out of the core, but at the same time the Mayor is calling for development in Over-the-Rhine. It's not consistant. Just look at how the Cincinnati Police give out parking tickets. That's a sure way to drive customers away from downtown. You don't see a suburban mall owner giving out tickets. "I don't think Cincinnati's government, and most cities' governments, would allow a private operator to lay rail lines in the street and control signals." City governments don't have a choice. The Ohio Revised Code allows private operators to lay rail lines in the street, given that certain conditions are met. All of the laws pertaining to streetcars are still on the books. Streetcar operators must give free fares to firefighters in uniform, for example. Whether a private developer can turn a profit is a different issue. Streetcar lines are treated similarly to utilities in Ohio. If Duke wants to lay a gas main in a street, there is nothing that City of Cincinnati City Council can do to stop them other than require proper restoration.

Something about the transit discussion is that the discussion easily morphes into a discussion about the proper role of government in the economy. That's why it brings out so much emotion. I wouldn't equate taxpayers with investors. Taxpayers have no choice where their tax money goes. Investors do. Governments at all levels build things that could be, or should be, done by private developers, depending on one's opinion. Examples are are stadiums, municipal swimming pools and recreation centers, schools, bus routes, and rail transit. There is nothing stopping a private developer from building a streetcar in Cincinnati, provided that he follows the law. All of Cincinnati's historic streetcar lines were built by private developers.

"As this depression wears on, I've grown more capitalistic." C-Dawg :shoot:

Downtown Cincinnati has in fact lost jobs. Downtown Cincinnati is losing jobs both on an absolute basis and a market share basis. According to the Cincinnati Go report: City of Cincinnati Job Gain and Loss, 2000-2005 Downtown Loss 6333 Uptown Gain 3449 All other neighborhoods Loss 4909 Net City Total Loss 7793

"Government shouldn't be engaging in private development." Wow, Randy, I didn't expect this from you.

U.S. Census data: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html This is what we have to work with: Ohio, Population, 2008 estimate 11,485,910 percent change, 2000 to 2008 1.2% This is what Portland has to work with: Oregon, population 2008 estimate 3,790,060 percent change, 2000 to 2008 10.8% Of course Portland is going to have more development. Their population is growing 9 times faster than ours. Development in the Cincinnati area serves little more than to shuffle people around from one community to another. Portland's development is actual growth - something that we just don't have and will likely never have again.

To increase revenue, build suburban-style office space in the Madison Road area.

No, no no! Streetcars and rail transit in general can certainly improve mobility. The Over-the-Rhine route wasn't my first pick, but I would certainly prefer to improve my mobility without so much driving. The City of Cincinnati is in deep doo-doo financially. No offense to all the good city employees! If there was extra cash, we wouldn't be talking about the streetcar. We would be riding it. That said, I don't think the streetcar is going to save the city. The city needs to work on its other core problems first. If the city can get its house in order, there will be plenty of money to build and operate the streetcar. If the city really wants to develop Over-the-Rhine, the city needs to have a policy stating that. Then, the first thing that the city should do infrastructure wise is STOP PROMOTING SPRAWL in new areas on the periphery. That means stop extending water and sewer. This is well within the control of the City of Cincinnati. They should disband most of the city departments and concentrate on clean, safe streets and parks. That means infrastructure, police, and fire. No more Department of Retirement, Office of Environmental Quality, Department of Recreation, Department of Community Development, Department of small business enterprise and so on and so on. When the city gets its problems under control, then there will be plenty of cash to build the streetcar. I don't expect it to happen, though. Getting rid of just 10% of spending will free up enough money to build the streetcar. Think about that. And no, I am not one of those anti-tax tea party members. I think that taxes are a push factor that hurts development in the city. The city is losing population, losing jobs, losing the best and brightest, and all that, and high taxes do not help the city's cause. The streetcar may result in a few more people in Over-the-Rhine, but solving the core problems could potentially result in a few hundred thousand people city-wide. Just go to West Chester and imagine if that investment had ocurred in Over-the-Rhine. The streetcar should NOT be Cincinnati's first priority.

Of course the streetcar is infrastructure. But it doesn't count if it doesn't get built. If you count the various mass transit plans presented over the years, we have been talking about rail transit in Cincinnati since at least 1974. In the meantime, Cincinnati has built a new water main across the river to Florence, Kentucky. The City of Mason is now connected to Cincinnati Water Works because Mason exhausted their own water resources. Cincinnati pumps water well into Warren County and there are plans to connect to Lebanon. Cincinnati is building sewers on the western edge. All of that new development in the Rybolt Road area occurred in just the last few years because of new sewers. And those are things controlled by the City of Cincinnati. Some big infrastructure projects that the city does not control are: New SR 747 railroad underpass I-275 widening Veterans Highway in Butler County, or whatever they are calling it these days. I-75 Cut in the hill widening Widespread water and sewer construction in Butler County, Clermont County, and Northern Kentucky. The only big infrastructure project in Cincinnati that I can think of was Fort Washington Way, which turned out nice. Is it any wonder why developers build in those places? We are talking of perhaps $200 million for a streetcar while in the meantime we have spent 10 times that helping developers build more sprawl. Hey, the Brent Spence Bridge replacement, if they ever build it, is going to cost about $3 billion and all it's going to do is get more cars to Kentucky in the afternoon. Why would Cincinnati support that? Downtown Cincinnati now has only 14% of the jobs in Hamiliton County (even less as a percent of the whole metro) and is still losing ground. Why would any developer want to build near downtown Cincinnati? I don't know what Portland's policy is. I have read about their urban growth boundary, and I suspect that it has something to do with the new development around the streetcar line. Portland also has support of its state, whereas our state is just as likely to spend money in, say, Liberty Township, Butler County than in the urban core. Maybe someone could inform me. But despite what any of the studies say, Cincinnati's policy (including other jurisdictions besides the City of Cincinnati) is heavily biased toward new development in the suburbs. I don't see a streetcar changing that. Cincinnati is losing so many jobs that even if the streetcar results in tons of development in Over-the-Rhine, that development is likely to be offset by losses elsewhere. It is very conceivable that the streetcar is successful and Cincinnati still loses tax revenue.

The Cincinnati Go study recommends rail transit between Downtown and the U.C. area. But guess what else it says? "65% of the City's workforce lived outside the city as of the 2000 U.S. Census. This is already evident in the change from the 1990 Census when 62% of the City's workforce lived outside the city. The City's population is about 14% of the Metro's population, down from 20% in 1990. This is of particular concern because the region as a whole did not grow in proportion. Bottom line: there are significantly fewer people contributing to the City's tax base. The city is losing office market share. the city is losing industrial market share. The city is losing residential market share due to aggressive development of housing projects in perimeter areas, particularly in the river cities in Northern Kentucky. Businesses are increasingly locating outside of Cincinnati's CBD. Growth segments for office space are those that offer modern amenities, amply amounts of surface parking, competitive lease rates and proximaty to swaths of executive housing. Cincinnati can compete for this market share by providing these types of structures in the city limits. Market demand for industrial space seeks access to transportation resources, layout, loading docks and other functional elements and are usually lower in value than other space. Cincinnati is losing share in the premier residential market to suburban locations and is losing ground to Northern Kentucky in the luxery high-rise multifamily market. This is despite the fact that Cincinnati has a historical competitive advantage in its distinctive walkable urban places that other surrounding areas lack. But while walkable urban development gives the City a competetive advantage, the real estate market analysis demonstrated that the City does not have sufficient drivable sub-urban office and industrial product within its municipal boundaries, keeping it from competing for the major driver of growth for commercial development. By not offering this drivable sub-urban real estate product, the City is not benefiting from certain kinds of growth taking place in the region. " The study then suggest that the best way to increase tax revenue is to promote new drivable, sub-urban type development in Queensgate, Madison Road area, and Seymour area.

Borrowing money makes a good business better, but it makes a bad business worse. If the streetcar is built and it fails, we are going to be in worse shape than if we didn't build it at all. It is very conceivable that Cincinnati will build the streetcar, which will in turn attract some development, and Cincinnati will end up with less tax income than before. The basic question is, "How much new development will come as a result of the streetcar." I don't think it's legitimate to assume that we will get the same development that has occured in Portland without also comparing their school policy, their utility policy, their tax policy, etc. If Cincinnati invested as much into infrastructure in Over-the-Rhine as they do in the outer suburbs I don't think we would need to discuss the streetcar. Can you blame developers for building in Florence, West Chester, Liberty Township, etc., when the infrastructure there is subsidized?

Replacing petroleum powered cars with electric ones would also leave the Highway Trust Fund in a bind with just as may cars on the road but less money to pay for road maintenance. Our current automobile use and highway system go together as a partnership. Neither can work without the other. Maybe a mechanism for the decline of automobiles might include poor highway maintenance due to decline in gas tax revenue. Fortunately, infrastructure lasts a long time, and the major work of grading has already been done. Still, pavement must be resurfaced periodically and bridges replaced. It isn't going to last forever, even if we invent solar powered cars (not likely.)

I think Terminal Tower is classy. I liked it better in old photos when it was the only tall skycraper in Cleveland, though.