Eigth and State

For all I know, the challenge may be accurate. The U.S. Census is said to be off by as much as 30%. That's not very comforting. What I have said before is that the population and the population change are two different concepts. I'm not concerned so much about the actual population. What I want to know is whether it is increasing, decreasing, or stable. So, one group of people took a census in 1990. The same group of people took a census in 2000. The 1990 population was higher than the 2000 population, so that shows a decrease. The Census challenge estimated a new population, which happened to be a little higher than the current estimate. This does NOT show an increase. In order to prove an increase, one would have to take more than one Census using the same method. If the official 2000 Census was wrong, the official 1990 Census was probably wrong, too. You can't compare the official 1990 Census or any estimate based on that census with the challenge because they used two different methods. It's like asking whether or not the river is rising. I don't care how deep it is; I just want to know if it's going up or down. If you measure it in two different places, you get two depths but it doesn't tell you what you want. I wish the best for Cincinnati. I really do. However, I think that there are people on this board that are unrealistically optimistic. The streetcar project is going to be a tougher sell than it's made out to be. The feasibility study projects a certain amount of activity associated with the streetcar, and a certain increase of population in the area. Fair enough. It does NOT attempt to predict the population of the entire city in the same time period. Cincinnati has lost 200,000 people in 50 years. That is HUGE. Adding 10,000 people to OTR is not going to change this trend, especially if most of those 10,000 people come from other places within the city. The city needs NEW residents, and lots of them. Where are they going to come from? The real world is not SimCity, where if you build it, they will come. We have another thread for Cincinnati population trends if you want to continue there.

Prove it. The last Census estimates I saw show a decline in the City of Cincinnati. I am using the decennial Census, from 1990 to 2000. The current trend is DOWN. And please don't compare the original Census estimates to the results of the Census challenge. You can't show a change accurately using two different methods. The key to the success of the streetcar is attracting NEW residents. If someone moves from say, Westwood to OTR, that's not a new resident. I don't doubt the benefits of the streetcar. I don't doubt that OTR is showing signs of improvement. What I doubt is that the streetcar will attract enough NEW activity and population to make up for losses elsewhere.

"If I were to bet, I think Cincinnati will show a declining population DESPITE the streetcar." "I'll take you up on that bet." Well, the streetcar has to be built for this bet to be valid. I am NOT going to bet whether or not the streetcar will be built. I will grant you that the streetcar attracts a certain demographic. My point is that the rest of the city has a lot of old people that are presently not being replaced with younger ones. Population change = births - deaths + immigration - emmigration. The streetcar isn't going to change the birth or death rate. The best we can hope for is that it will increase the net immigration. Since the present trends indicate a reduction in population state wide beginning in 2018, increaseing popluation by construction of a streetcar is going to be an uphill battle. OTR may increase, sure, but not the City of Cincinnati overall.

Unfortunately, most traffic signals in Ohio are timed for cars first and pedestrians second. It's not like that everywhere; in some places the light turns instantly when the button is pressed. And yes, the signal timing is adjusted to allow more time for pedestrians when the button is pressed. Otherwise, drivers would complain that they have to wait too long. The cost of the button itself is not that much. The biggest cost in traffic signals is the engineering and the control device. Most new control devices are electronic, and simply turn switches on and off to light the signals. Some old ones are mechanical, and consist more or less of a wheel that rotates slowly and switches the signal lights on and off on a pretimed schedule. The newer electronic ones have the ability to change the timing throughout the day, adjust for weekends and holidays, interact with other signals, and make adjustments based on traffic including pedestrian buttons and even emergency vehicles.

"The only real surprise is that Ohio's population grew by 0.1%." This is due not really to new immigrants or new births but by old people getting older. The average age is going up. Our birth rates are below replacement rates, and immigration and emmigration are small. We are forecast to start losing population as soon as death rates catch up to the Baby Boomers. This is projected to occur in 2018.

United States Immigration laws and the minimum wage are two things that Ohio can't do anything about. Can you imagine what the year 1900 must have been like with no restrictions on immigration whatsoever and no minimum wage? 1906 was the single biggest year for immigration into the United States. The depression years were the only time that the United States had a net emigration. The conditions that allowed for rapid growth are likely to never occur again. I wouldn't count on much foreign immigration to Ohio.

^--- If I were to bet, I think Cincinnati will show a declining population DESPITE the streetcar. Even if Over-the-Rhine gains 50,000 people, Westwood, Avondale, Mt. Airy, College Hill, Saylor Park, Bond Hill, and the other first ring suburbs will lose more than that. In my humble opinion, the only way that the streetcar will attract NEW residents is for people to move from other parts of the state to Over-the-Rhine. If they move from, say, Westwood to Over-the-Rhine, the city won't gain any new residents and therefore won't gain any new tax revenue. Cincinnati's budget is in trouble. Also, the reason why people don't complain about the cost of highways such as the Waldvogel Viaduct is because the funds are already appropriated. There is no reason why the City of Cincinnati couldn't cut other programs and come up with the money to fund the streetcar today except for politics. The road people want to protect their own budget, and the health department wants to protect theirs, etc.

I've seen an example of this effect before, except that it happened because of an earthquake. The article states that the building was under construction. I suppose this minimized the damage, compared to an occupied building. :-o I suppose it landed softly! I can only see cracks on the exterior. Much of the window glass survived!

I remember meeting a guy on the bus who worked at Kahn's when they still slaugtered hogs. He was bragging about how many pigs he killed that day.

Tell me if this is correct. This is the story I heard. Fort Washington was an U.S. Army fort in Cincinnati. Cincinnati was chosen for the fort location because it was on the river yet high enough to be out of the flood prone area. Fort Washington was important to protect Cincinnati from the Indian menace in the early days and is a significant factor for the early success of Cincinnati. Fort Washington however attracted prostitutes, and upon complaints from the citizenry, the fort was moved across the river to Fort Thomas, and the prositutes moved across the river to Newport. Fort Thomas eventually faded out of importance and Newport held it's tradition through the 1980's. True?

15,000 people may fill the residential buildings, but will not fill the storefronts. See what I'm getting at? The ratios of housing to storefronts in OTR from 1890 to 1950 will likely never be seen again. Look at the new buildings on the east side of Linn Street. Nearly all of the new storefronts are vacant. OTR is all about 2, 3, and 4 story buildings with storefronts. Roughly half of the buildings that existed in 1930 are still there. Preserving or rehabbing those buildings will require some use to be found for the storefronts as well as some use to be found for the residential portion. What is happening in Mt. Adams and other places is that the ground floor is used for parking and the upper floors for residential. While that may be better than vacant lots, it would change the character of OTR. So far, some of the new development in OTR includes parking garages. I'm not against parking garages necessarily, but I recognize that developing OTR with parking garages is going to change the character of OTR. Look at portions of Vine and Walnut around fountain square. The parking garage entrances are dreadful to pedestrians. Some newer garages are better, and the Park Haus at least incorporated storefronts, but too much of that kind of development is what I would call "redevelopment" of OTR, not "preserving" OTR.

^---- That's why I said depending on the boundaries. How much of the metro must you include to reach 2 million? A full OTR could support 50 k. No arguments there. That's not the issue. The issue is whether or not you can find 50 k to support OTR. Redevelop OTR? Yes! Preserve OTR? Too late. That's all I'm sayin'.

Over-the-Rhine along with surrounding neighborhoods had a population of 150,000 as late as 1950. Today it has about 10% of that. The Cincinnati Metro has a population of about 1 million, depending on where you draw the boundary. About 1 of every hundred people in Cincinnati lives in Over-the-Rhine. To get close to 1950 population levels, we need 100,000 people, or one of ten, to move to Over-the-Rhine. It is hard to imagine this happening. If Over-the-Rhine is gentrified, it implies that people with money will be moving in. These people are not likely to live 5 people to a 300 square foot unit. These people are not likely to live car-free. These people are likely to live in large spaces and bring their cars. There will likely never be the demand for so many storefronts. So, while gentrification is the best chance of redeveloping Over-the-Rhine, the chances of preserving Over-the-Rhine are small.

Preserving OTR is tough. If the yuppies come, they will want to bring their cars and OTR will tend toward sprwal. The conditions under which OTR was built will likely never happen again. A point that isn't mentioned much is the bypass effect. Often, when tranportation planners want to reduce congestion in a small town, they design a higway bypass to go around. Often, the unintended side effect is that the businesses move to the bypass. OTR along with downtown are bypassed by freeways on three sides. Imagine how much money drives within a mile of OTR every day! Once upon a time, the main routes all went through OTR or surrounding neighborhoods. All of that traffic is gone now. Sure, restaurants and art galleries are nice, but when I see grocery stores, hardware stores, banks, doctors and dentists' offices, hotels, schools, electronics stores, sporting goods stores, and lots and lots of employment, then I think OTR will be on the right track. Most of that action has moved to the suburban motorways because that is where the traffic is.

Boone, Campbell, and Kenton Counties already have a joint sewer district.

Sorry I don't know more about Stockport. I visited there last weekend. The photo isn't mine. 6 friends and I went to Stockport the traditional way: by water. We went on a 32 mile kayak trip from Rockeby Lock to Beverly on the Muskingum River and camped at Stockport. The Muskingum River was canalized beginning in 1841 and upgraded through the 1890's. Since then, commercial riverboat traffic has declined to almost nothing. The locks and dams are still there, and operated on summer weekends by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources. Normally, it costs a fee to use the locks, but last weekend it was free as a promotion. Even so, the system is lightly used. We passed about 15 recreational boats the entire weekend, though there are hundreds of boats tied up along the bank. The locks are hand-operated. This system has the last remaining system of hand-operated locks in the United States. We locked through three locks. We paddled up to the lock and waved at the lockmaster, then watched him walk around in circles pushing a crank handle to open and close the gates. Stockport is in a sort of time warp. I don't think it has had any new construction since 1930. The tall building nearest the dam is Stockport Inn. It was formerly a flour mill that operated with a water turbine until 1997. It is now a restaurant and inn.

"Virtually every westside community is unincorporated and has suckled off of the teet of Hamilton County for many, many years." Prove it. First of all, Delhi, Green, Colerain, Miami, Whitewater, Harrison, and Crosby Townships are unincorportated. Cheviot, North Bend, Cleves, Addyston, and the City of Harrison are incorporated municipalities. Westwood, Mt. Airy, Price Hill, and Saylor Park are neighborhoods within the City of Cincinnati. Do Colerain and Green Township get "free" police service from Hamilton County? Colerain and Green Township residents certainly pay a lot of Hamilton County taxes, and they also have a fairly low crime rate. If you imagine government as a pot of money, people contribute to that pot in taxes and receive benefits from that pot. Everyone seems to think that he pays more than his fair share.

^-----"There are plenty of those jobs for those who don't have their noses in the air" Noses in the air or not, there simply are not as many jobs in Ohio to meet the unemployed. I know people with professional level training who are either unemployed or under-employed. And furthermore, if you are underemployed, such as a chemist working at a grocery store, you just bump that grocery clerk out of a job.

Check out [email protected]. Naturally most of the trips are in the Cincinnati area but this group goes on trips all over the world. I am looking forward to a trip on the Muskingum River this weekend.

^---"this may even make for a pleasant alternative commute for some." Looks like you can only go one way, and there's only one way in. Interesting.

The United States is ALREADY a socialistic state. We are just less socialistic than some other socialistic states, such as France.

NCR - Thanks for the boats. It's not everyday that you lose a company with history this deep.

Again, it's short term vs. long term. Right now, in 2009, it appears that oil may have peaked, but we still don't know for sure. If it does rise, it will not likely rise by much. At the same time, in 2009, natural gas production is rising, and coal production is rising. Peak energy is still some time off. So, if we can switch some of our current consumption from oil to natural gas and coal, then we can continue to consume more energy for a few years. How many? I don't know. We can also seek efficiency gains. Switching to lighter cars can save enormous amounts of oil compared to what we consume now. So, miles driven can still go up. Eventually, peak natural gas and peak coal will catch up, and then we are in big trouble. But since this point is so far away, it is hard to imagine what might happen.

The interstates did not allow for parking. What might have happened if downtown ramps terminated in parking garages? Many interstates still have their original dimensions, but I can't think of a metropolitan interstate that hasn't been widened or modified in some way. Clearly, interstates were not well planned in cities.