KJP

I don't see a cliff either, barring geopolitical factors or extraction technologies that end up damaging reserviors/wells (see Saudi Arabia for examples of both issues). Another factor: if we use extraction technologies only to deny the existence of an impending crisis, rather than using the time we've bought ourselves wisely to reorient lifestyles away from oil dependency. So far, we're engaged in the former. The supply curve (and our denial) can only be propped up for so long. That's when a supply cliff would likely happen. It's better to use extraction technologies to make the descent gradual than to enable the addiction.

LOL!

It's amazing how some people are absolutely blind to the big picture. Oil prices may drop into $50s by spring. But will they stay "that low"? Of course not. Not unless we make major transportation and land use policy changes in this country! ___________________ http://www.nypost.com/seven/12292006/business/the_worst_could_be_over_for_high_oil_prices_business_paul_tharp.htm THE WORST COULD BE OVER FOR HIGH OIL PRICES By PAUL THARP Click to enlarge graphic.December 29, 2006 -- The economy-wrecking nightmare of skyrocketing oil prices may be coming to an end, with cheaper $50-a-barrel oil becoming the norm through springtime. Energy analysts say that hair-trigger trading - which had threatened in the summer to send crude soaring to $100 a barrel - has become virtually obsolete almost overnight as investors have grown immune to bad news. Investors are also wary of getting burned on rapid swings in oil prices - usually fanned by fickle geopolitical events ranging from failed suicide terrorist attacks on Saudi refineries to rallies of noisy Hamas thugs.

A note to add: the fact that the U.S. is the world's third-largest producer of oil and yet we still import 60 percent of our annual supply only shows how oil-gluttonous we really are. Anyway, on with the article... ______________ http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27661 Production Means Investment By Elliott H. Gue 31 Dec 2006 at 03:04 AM EST MCLEAN, Va. (EnergyStrategist.com) -- Here's a New Year's challenge for you: Name the top three largest oil-producing countries in the world. If you're like most investors, you probably know that the world's largest oil producer is Saudi Arabia. In 2005, Saudi Arabia churned out more than 11 million barrels of oil per day, roughly 13.5 percent of the world's total supply. And you may have guessed the world's second-largest producer: the Russian Federation. In 2005, Russia chipped in about 9.5 million barrels per day, a bit more than 12 percent of the total global production.

It all depends on what you do with state resources, the city-to-city competition/rivalry, etc. Just because we have multiple metro areas of 1 million doesn't make us economically competitive with the rest of the U.S. and the world. Ohio's poor standing in job creation is an example. The few other states that have multiple large metro areas (California, Texas, Florida) all have better job-creation performance than does Ohio. There is no hard and fast rule for unipolar states either, as Massachusetts, Oregon, Colorado, Washington, Minnesota and possibly others all seem to be growing economically, while Michigan and Indiana may not be. Make your state's characteristics work FOR your state. Unfortunately, Ohio hasn't been doing that very well in recent decades.

That's especially true if ODOT funding were used to enable public-private partnerships to improve transportation choices, throughput/system capacity and core-city/urban vitality. My primary thinking is with the railroads, but could apply to other modes as well. Under a railroad-partnership scenario, ODOT would provide a share of funding to rail capacity enhancement projects that get more heavy trucks off the roads, thereby reducing the damage they do to pavement condition and bridges. The result is that ODOT pays less in capital and operating/maintenance funding than they would otherwise if it were a highway project because: A. the railroad is providing a meaningful share of the project/engineering cost; B. the time factor decreases, as expanding railroad capacity (unless it's a new rail line) isn't subject to the same environmental rules/reviews as a highway. And, of course, time is money; C. the railroad, not ODOT, pays to operate/maintain the added rail capacity; D. ODOT highway operating/maintenance costs decrease because there aren't as many heavy trucks beating the hell out of roads/bridges; E. oh, and by the way, a little thing called safety improves, both on the railroad (with less rail traffic congestion and more grade-crossing separations) and on the highways (with less heavy trucks mixing with those tiny four-wheelers). What a concept! And all for the price of $25 million to $30 million annually in state gas taxes paid by "off-road" (farm equipment, landscaping equipment, etc.) consumers of gasoline!

New-look Valley View has open house Fremont News-Messenger, 12/15/06 Renovated Valley View Healthcare Center celebrated its first holiday season with its new look Thursday with an open house. The $500,000 renovation to the facility on June Street took about six months, ending in April. The facility has new carpet, wallpaper and decor. "People who stop in and who are familiar with the facility don't even recognize it," said Paula Bibler, director of nursing. The largest upgrade is the improved quality of equipment, along with the walls that have been removed to create more space for lounge areas and dining rooms for residents within the three units. In the facility, there is a rehab-to-home unit -- private suites for the residents who are coming from the hospital and need skilled care for a short amount of time until they can return home. Also included, is the long-term care unit and the memory care unit for Alzheimer's patients.

Yes, from two other threads that ought to be combined as well... __________________ http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php?topic=4043.30 http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php?topic=6414.0

Great to see District Park still has a pulse, but shouldn't this article be posted at: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php?topic=7731.msg79455#msg79455 ??

Isn't it amazing that we don't have such a thread? We do now! A decent article appears below, but misses the whole "no option to the automobile" discussion or the impact on sprawl, the environment and social equity issues of ODOT spending 95-98 percent of its budget on highways. Interesting stuff on the highway lobby and the political BS... _________________ http://www.cleveland.com/ohio/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/news/1167557618243720.xml&coll=2 Gas-tax increase fuels ODOT building boom Sunday, December 31, 2006 Ted Wendling and T.C. Brown Plain Dealer Bureau Columbus- With little controversy, Ohio lawmakers raised the gas tax by 6 cents in 2003. The move launched a period of prosperity never before seen at the state Department of Transportation and turned the agency into a political powerhouse. Deftly pushed through the legislature by the Ohio Contractors Association, its construction industry allies and ODOT Director Gordon Proctor, the gas-tax increase has fueled Gov. Bob Taft's "Jobs and Progress" program, a 10-year, $5 billion highway construction boom. So flush is ODOT that the agency is spending $70 million to replace every one of its 500,000 road signs - even though no federal regulations require it and ODOT's own studies show that fewer than 6,000 signs - barely 1 percent of the total - are missing, damaged or otherwise deficient. ............ TO READ THE REST OF THE ARTICLE, GO TO: http://members.cox.net/corridorscampaign/PD123106-Gas%20tax%20increase%20fuels%20ODOT%20building%20boom.pdf

I'm surprised there's been no reference to Euclid Square Mall here. I've been wanting to take pictures of the mall to post here, but why when someone else has taken so many of the empty mall and its vacant outlots.... http://public.fotki.com/deadeuclid/ Here's a write up of Euclid Square Mall, posted at http://deadmalls.com/malls/euclid_square_mall.html Euclid Square Mall opened in March of 1977, on a former industrial site. The mall was anchored by May Company and Higbee's, and had almost 100 stores. The mall did well up until the mid-1990's, when tenants started moving out. The main competition for Euclid Square Mall was Great Lakes Mall in Mentor, about 10 miles east of Euclid Square, and Richmond Mall (later renamed Richmond Town Square) in Richmond Heights, about 4 miles south. Euclid Square Mall had the usual mix of mall tenants, including Walden Books, Kay Bee Toys, Record Town, shoe stores, clothing stores, etc. There was no food court, but food tenants, including Burger King, Arby's, York Steak House, etc. were all over the mall. There was also the "Euclidian Room", which was used for meetings and community events. Euclid Square Mall started dying when Kaufmann's (formerly May Company) closed its store in 1998, shortly after they opened a new store at the newly remodeled (and renamed) Richmond Town Square, itself a once-dying mall that Debartolo never put much money into, but Simon extensively remodeled.) Euclid Square Mall was once owned by Jacobs, Visconsi, and Jacobs, then was sold to Heywood Whichard once the mall started losing tenants big time. Dillard's (formerly Higbee's) became an outlet store, and is still open. Otherwise, by the beginning of 2003, the mall pretty much closed. Tenants on outlets included a Fazio's supermarket (closed as a Rini Rego Stop-N-Shop in the early 1990's), and a Toys R Us (opened 1985 and closed 2002). In late 2004, Euclid Square Mall reopened as "Outlets USA", which is basically the former May Company/Kaufmann's store reopened as a discount furniture store as well as other businesses selling things such as clothing, tools, housewares, and art. Other Outlets USA tenants that later left the mall included a vendor selling single serve slices of wedding cake, and a vendor selling used DVD's and VHS tapes. A hot dog stand reopened, and an Italian restaurant opened in the former Rogers Jewelers. Most of the Outlets USA activity is centered at the former Kaufmann's and the storefronts adjacent. The Euclidian Room is still in use today for meetings. The operators of Outlets USA purchased Euclid Square Mall from Whichard in early 2004. Whether this format will save Euclid Square Mall remains to be seen in the long term, but I am glad that it is there, giving local businesses a way to get started. ###

My greatest concern is that it will happen with a major downshift in the economy. True, that will reduce consumption, but once you're past the peak in oil production, there's no second peak. We might be able to plateau supply/demand for a while, but that only makes the eventual decline in production steeper. After all, you can't produce more oil than you've discovered, and the discovery peak was more than 40 years ago and has diminished to virtually nil today. The point is, with the economy hurt, there is less money for research and innovation for finding alternatives that have something even remotely close to the energy density of oil. There is also less capital funding available (both public and private) for redeveloping communities in more pedestrian friendly ways, for expanding mass transit and for building high-speed rail. We're getting a preview of that right now -- look at the budgets of state transportation departments. The cost of oil is causing the price of asphalt, steel and fuel for construction vehicles to skyrocket, forcing the scaling back, postponement or cancellation of some highway projects. And, in case you haven't already heard, the federal highway trust fund is facing bankruptcy by 2009 unless more revenue sources are found so it can meet an already staggering backlog of projects to funds have been obligated.

So many jokes to make with this! > I know what they mean. Just last week I'd misplaced the left half of my body. > Why would you want look for all that body hair? Besides, it will all grow back by next week. > Their offspring are missing? Oh, I'm sorry, I thought it said "calves."

I love the second shot. I don't like the first (because of the subject matter). Is this the same thing that the city's Division of Water website refers to? (about 2/3 the way down, at http://www.clevelandwater.com/system_overview/plant_enhancement.html ): ____________ G. Morgan West Reservoir Project Following construction of the new East Reservoir, the 20 MG (million gallons) cell of the existing reservoir will be demolished. This project includes demolition of the existing reservoir and construction of a new 20 MG reservoir to occupy the location of the demolished reservoir. Temporary and permanent underground conduits and yard piping will be constructed to maintain plant operations during construction. This project provides instrumentation and controls, roadways, drainage, and site/civil improvements. Design efforts are scheduled to take place from fall 2004 through fall 2005. Construction is expected to begin in early 2006 with completion forecast for summer 2008.

Yep, I remember the derailments. It killed the then-private Auto Train Corp. I was visiting Amtrak's Beech Grove shops outside Indianapolis in 1983 when the old Auto Train car carriers were coming in. They had that awful purplish striping on them! And the east-west lines may have a decent amount of capacity (whether they have spare capacity is debatable), but the north-south lines south of Cincinnati and Louisville certainly don't. They are mostly single-tracked, with lots of twists and turns, and slow running. They never had the industrial traffic on them that the east-west lines through Ohio and Indiana had and were therefore never built with the same kind of track capacity as our northern lines. The L&N and Southern did have a fair bit of mineral and petroleum traffic on them, though. Now, most of CSX and NS's traffic is automotive and intermodal -- and growing as fast or faster than the southern cities they serve. There was an article recently in Trains magazine about the single-track NS line through Chattanooga and how its 30+ trains daily is clogging the hell out of it (compare that to the NS line through Waterloo, IN, Toledo and Cleveland with 80+ trains daily!). That second track and flat running sure makes a world of difference. Sorry for the run-on, but it continues to amaze me how much rail traffic is growing. I doubt the average person even notices.

Getting an average speed of 65-70 mph would be awfully tough in the rough terrain in the 475 rail miles between Cincinnati and Atlanta. The existing freight lines on this portion are suffering from serious traffic congestion, so we're probably talking about putting down lots of double-track, easing some curves and installing a cab-signal traffic control system to get those kinds of average speeds. Now we're probably looking at something at least $2 million per mile -- that's worth doing if we're going to have more than a half-dozen passenger trains per day (not just not an Auto Train), plus expanding freight capacity, to also ease the burden on parallel interstates. Not impossible. Just wanted to provide a taste of what might be involved.

Here's something I threw together as a way of creating a more pedestrian-friendly street experience along Euclid in the area of East 105th Street. The goal is to reduce the need for parking for Clinic employees by providing housing within walking distance of many Clinic buildings, as well as providing indoor and outdoor plazas, sidewalk cafes, restaurants, shops and a grocery store to make the area an attractive place to live and work regardless of the weather... Before.... After....

Dave Plata covers Ohio City for Sun, not I.

Or you could have asked the employee at the front door where the UrbanOhio group was. Other late arrivals were able to find us that way.

Great find, FrqntFlyr!

W28th's picture has inspired me to post these pictures of the Euclid - East 105th area. I know I've posted some of these before, but I apparently deleted them from my web hosting service. I've replaced them at the host and added more.... Here's a couple then-and-now pair of pictures, taken from almost exactly the same location. First, 1946, looking west along Euclid with East 105th directly below... Then, in 2000, a photo I took looking westward from the roof of Fenway Manor (part of the Hospice of the Western Reserve) with the intention of comparing it with the 1946 photo.... Euclid at 105th, in the 1910s, when the urban neighborhood was still getting more dense, growing upward... The next few photos are of Euclid at 105th during its heyday in the 1920s... Looking west on Euclid at 105th, amid an air-raid alarm test (clear the streets quickly!) during WWII, in 1942... Euclid at East 102nd, in 1951 (perhaps the neighborhood's last decent decade)... The turbulent 1960s, the start of urban sprawl, white flight and influx of poor southern blacks seeking jobs when Cleveland's manufacturing economy was already cresting and starting its descent. The Euclid-East 105th neighborhood was too close to overcrowded, impoverished black neighborhoods like Hough (76,000 people per square mile) to not be affected. So here's the neighborhood in 1976, after the painful 1960s led to the Cleveland Clinic demolishing the now-seedy neighborhood, much to the dismay of area residents and city councilpersons. This the Alhambra Theater coming down... Despite it's seedy appearance in the mid-1970s, it was still more pedestrian-friendly than it is today!! Hopefully, some Cleveland Clinic execs will see these photos and get some ideas on how to develop a truly urban setting for the clinic. One thing is for sure, they have forgotten (or never knew) how to create a pleasant and productive street experience for pedestrians around the clinic.

Damn, and I was surprised no one had posted the article yet.

Amazing what mild weather does to construction timelines!

Zace, that's pretty much what Zaremba was referring to. Check the website for Marfa, Texas (at http://www.marfatx.com/ ) and you'll get an idea of the "clean, high-end" artistry that stuck in Zaremba's mind. He was trying to brand his creation and draw some creative tenants that could result in spin-off jobs for downtown. That will be made a little clearer in the second installment.

That's the minimum of how long it has taken every place else to get commuter rail service up and running.