KJP

Buses just aren't as quick and nimble as cars, even if they operate nonstop. Plus, this is a new service, so they're probably just being conservative with the schedule. And sometimes they put some padding in the schedule to account for construction, weather, accidents, etc. Of course, some of Greyhound's buses take more than eight hours to travel between Cleveland and Chicago, while Amtrak takes between 6 and 7 hours (a lot of that is padding too).

I was doing a little math (uh oh) and came up with the following to find out the size of employer necessary to build a certain height of structure on that lot on Public Square. I had to estimate the square footage of the lot and assume that a building's floor space would fill it out and only gradually taper as the building got higher. I also had to come up with an estimate of square footage needed per employee. According to the Energy Information Administration, the average square footage is 387 sq ft per office worker (includes common areas). I rounded it down to 380 sq ft for conservative estimating. Next, GoogleEarth shows the lot on Public Square measures 215 feet x 235 feet = 50,525 sq feet. I rounded down to an average of 50,000 sq ft per floor to account for a tapering of a building. That results in an average of 132 employees per floor for this site. Or, in other words, for a.... 20-story building = 2,640 employees 30-story building = 3,960 employees 40-story building = 5,280 employees 50-story building = 6,600 employees Thought that might be somewhat interesting to guesstimate. KJP

My vote is for "Love Commune" (1970)

Kucinich factor -- His opposition to the route through Lakewood appears to be softening a bit. I can't say he'll go for it yet, but there may be some movement there. If the guy can change his opinion on abortion, surely he can change it on this issue. NS traffic -- For a demonstration service using Chicago Metra equipment and a limited passenger schedule, there shouldn't be too much of a problem. NS typically runs only 2-4 trains per day, though I have seen them (from my condo window) run as many as 10 per day as recently as last Tuesday when I was on vacation. NS wants their freight trains departing and arriving within a two-hour window, so there should be some wiggle room. For a full-blown commuter schedule, with passenger trains running every 15-30 minutes during rush hours and every 1-2 hours off-peak, then a rerouting of freight traffic will likely be necessary. Aurora run-through -- Not likely with the demonstration/introductory service as proposed in the report. The goal is to get "something" running to deal with the skepticism, fear and unknowns that too many locals have with regional rail service. If we can overcome that with a long-term demonstration to see what the real ridership base is (not just the wow-factor ridership that comes with a short-term demo), then we can look at more extravagent options. I think the diesel LRV, possibly retrofitted so it can also switch over to electric motive power under RTA wires, and operated from Lorain to Aurora via Tower City makes a great deal of sense. Let's get the foot in the door first.

Anything that makes it easier to get around without a car in the Midwest is a good thing. This will connect very well with Cleveland RTA buses and trains, as well as Akron Metro buses, Laketran and even the Portage Area RTA buses to Kent -- all of which converge on Public Square.

While I don't like intra-metro thievery, I have no problem whatsoever in accepting another city's jobs. Of course, I'd rather take them from the Sun Belt than from a fellow Great Lakes city. I'm sure Chicago felt real guilty when they got BP and Office Max from us... I'd welcome Quicken with open arms and any other incentives we're capable of offering. But I suspect that's what Gilbert wants to sweeten the deal with Detroit.

Try this on for size: A list of all movies, TV shows and documentaries filmed in or set in Cleveland (go to the link and you can click on all of these titles to learn more)...... http://www.imdb.com/List?endings=on&&locations=Cleveland,%20Ohio,%20USA&&heading=18;with+locations+including;Cleveland,%20Ohio,%20USA Titles with locations including Cleveland, Ohio, USA Here are the 159 matching titles: "American Idol: The Search for a Superstar" (2002) TV Series ...aka "American Idol 2" (2002) (USA: promotional title) ...aka "American Idol 2" (2003) (USA: promotional title) ...aka "American Idol 3" (2002) (USA) (USA) ...aka "American Idol 4" (2005) (USA: fourth season title) ...aka "American Idol" (2002) (USA: new title) (USA: new title) "Antiques Roadshow" (1997) TV Series "Blowin' Up! Fatty Koo" (2005) TV Series "Brice Kennedy Show, The" (2002) TV Series "Cops" (1989) TV Series "Drew Carey Show, The" (1995) TV Series "Evening Magazine" (1976) TV Series ...aka "Evening: The MTWTF Show" (1976) (USA: first episodes title) ...aka "P.M. Magazine" (1976) (USA) "Insomniac with Dave Attell" (2001) TV Series "Live at the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame" (2001) TV Series "Midnight Movie, The" (1998) TV Series "Mike Douglas Show, The" (1961) TV Series "Motormouth" (2004) TV Series "NFL Monday Night Football" (1970) TV Series "Northeast Golf" (1997) TV Series "Raw Is War" (1997) TV Series ...aka "Monday Night Raw" (1997) (USA) ...aka "WWE Raw Is War" (2002) (USA: new title) ...aka "WWF Raw Is War" (1997) (USA) ...aka "WWF Raw" (2001) (USA: new title) ...aka "WWF Warzone" (1997) (USA: second part title) "Real Magic TV" (2002) TV Series "Room by Room" (1994) TV Series "WWF Smackdown!" (1999) TV Series ...aka "Smackdown! Xtreme" (1999) (USA) ...aka "Smackdown!" (1999) (USA: new title) ...aka "WWE Smackdown!" (2002) (USA: new title) ...aka "World Wrestling Federation Smackdown!" (1999) (USA) '60s Pop Rock Reunion (2004) (TV) 1997 World Series (1997) (V) 8.1/10 (11 votes) 3 Days of Rain (2002) 6.7/10 (41 votes) 51st State (2005) Absence of Light, The (2004) 6.8/10 (17 votes) Access Nation (2004) 5.4/10 (83 votes) Against the Ropes (2004) 5.3/10 (1573 votes) ...aka Promoter, The (2004) (Germany) (Germany) ...aka Promoterin, Die (2004) (Germany) (Germany) Air Force One (1997) 6.2/10 (30548 votes) ...aka AFO (1997) Alanis Morissette: Jagged Little Pill - Live (1997) (V) 6.4/10 (90 votes) All That You Love Will Be Carried Away (2004) 6.3/10 (24 votes) America at 10 mph (2005) American Beer (2004) 9.0/10 (34 votes) American Blackout (2006) American Scary (2006) American Splendor (2003) 7.8/10 (11257 votes) Antwone Fisher (2002) 7.4/10 (5768 votes) Babe Ruth (1991) (TV) 5.4/10 (91 votes) Bet Your Life (2004) (TV) 4.3/10 (217 votes) Bleeding Orange & Brown: A Cleveland Tradition (2005) Blood Kiss (2002) 2.1/10 (7 votes) ...aka Blood Kiss: Soul of a Woman (2002) (USA) Bone Thugs n Harmony: The Collection Volume 2 (2004) (V) Bone Thugs-N-Harmony: Greatest Video Hits (2000) (V) Born to Be Mild (1990) (TV) 8.2/10 (6 votes) Bride of Killer Nerd (1992) 4.4/10 (39 votes) Brooklyn Goes to Cleveland (1955) Bus Is Coming, The (1971) 4.0/10 (8 votes) ...aka Ghetto Revenge (1971) (USA: video title) Capt. Schuyler Post of Philadelphia (1901) Carnage for the Destroyer (2006) (V) Cathode Fuck (1986) (V) Chapin Post of Buffalo (1901) Chase, The (2003) 5.4/10 (11 votes) Christmas at Maxwell's (2004) 8.2/10 (10 votes) Christmas Story, A (1983) 8.1/10 (24524 votes) Creature Feature: 50 Years of the Gill-Man (2004) (V) 6.9/10 (92 votes) Cuyahoga Gorge (1901) Dead Man's Bluff (2006) Deep Dark Woods, The (2003) (V) 1.8/10 (14 votes) Deep Dark Woods: No Witnesses, The (2004) (V) 5.7/10 (6 votes) Deer Hunter, The (1978) 8.1/10 (34983 votes) Devil's Filmmaker: Bohica, The (2003) Donnybrook (2005) 5.9/10 (11 votes) Double Dragon (1994) 3.4/10 (2100 votes) ...aka Double Dragon: The Movie (1994) Double-Stop (1968) Dreaming on Christmas (2005) Dusk & Shadow: The Mystery of Beverly Potts (2004) (V) Empire Theatre, The (1901) Enemy (1996) 3.7/10 (7 votes) Escalator (2003) 9.6/10 (5 votes) Escape Artist, The (1982) 5.9/10 (121 votes) Fahrenheit 9/11½ (2007) Farragut Naval Post, Ohio State (1901) Flattered (1995) Fortune Cookie, The (1966) 7.4/10 (1866 votes) ...aka Meet Whiplash Willie (1966) (UK) Fourteenth Victim: Eliot Ness and the Torso Murders, The (2003) (V) Giant Coal Dumper (1897) 4.3/10 (13 votes) Hail Columbia (1935) 4.9/10 (10 votes) Happy Gilmore (1996) 6.8/10 (21995 votes) Headquarters, Staff and Band, Ohio State (1901) Hellhounds On My Trail: The Afterlife of Robert Johnson (2000) (V) 6.3/10 (13 votes) ...aka Hellhounds On My Trail (2000) (V) (USA: short title) Hiphopbattle.com: Detroit vs. Cleveland (2003) 9.4/10 (5 votes) HipHopBattle.com: Hip Hop 4 Life (2001) 5.9/10 (17 votes) Howard the Duck (1986) 3.8/10 (7685 votes) ...aka Howard: A New Breed of Hero (1986) Invasion (2001) (V) 7.0/10 (123 votes) ...aka WCW Invasion (2001) (V) (USA: informal alternative title) (USA: informal alternative title) ...aka WCW/ECW Invasion (2001) (V) (USA: informal alternative title) (USA: informal alternative title) ...aka WWF Invasion (2001) (V) (USA: informal alternative title) (USA: informal alternative title) ...aka WWF vs the Alliance: Invasion (2001) (V) (USA: informal alternative title) (USA: informal alternative title) ...aka WWF vs. WCW/ECW Invasion (2001) (V) (USA: informal title) (USA: informal title) It Runs in the Family (1994) 5.4/10 (267 votes) ...aka My Summer Story (1994) Joe Nosferatu: Homeless Vampire (2004) 1.0/10 (12 votes) Jogger, The (1984) 3.3/10 (7 votes) John Doe's A Business Day (2001) (V) 9.0/10 (7 votes) John Doe's A Fly in My Soup (2004) (V) John Doe's The Vigilante (2001) (V) 3.1/10 (19 votes) Joker's Card, A (2005) (V) 6.6/10 (26 votes) Lambs Club, G.A.R. (1901) Language of Kickball, The (1999) Last Alarm, The (1900) 3.6/10 (5 votes) ...aka Cleveland Fire Department (1903) (USA: copyright title) Liberty Bound (2004) 5.7/10 (70 votes) Life Is the Only Thing Worth Dying For (2004) Line of Masculinity, The (2003) 6.9/10 (13 votes) Living Flag, The (1901) Losers, The (1968) 3.5/10 (9 votes) Love Commune (1970) 6.2/10 (9 votes) ...aka Ghetto Freaks (1970) ...aka Sign of Aquarius (1970) (USA: reissue title) ...aka Wages of Sin (1970) (USA: reissue title) Lyttle Post of Cincinnati (1901) Major League (1989) 6.7/10 (9789 votes) Major League Baseball All-Star Pregame Show (1981) (TV) Major League II (1994) 4.7/10 (4189 votes) Making of 'Antwone Fisher', The (2001) (TV) 5.9/10 (5 votes) Martians from Venus (2004) Midnight Days (2001) 3.3/10 (15 votes) Miracle Dogs (2003) (TV) 5.9/10 (38 votes) Mistaken Identity (2004/I) (TV) My Brother's Light (2002) 8.9/10 (23 votes) My Soul to Take (2006) My Soul to Take 2 (2006) Nightowls of Coventry, The (2004) 6.8/10 (9 votes) Not-So-Grim Reaper, The (2001) (V) Of Ashes and Atoms (2004) OH in Ohio, The (2006) On the Cleveland and Eastern Railway (1900) One Night (2000/I) One Trick Pony (1980) 5.4/10 (173 votes) Out of Darkness (2004) (TV) 8.5/10 (6 votes) Panorama, Public Square, Cleveland, O. (1901) Paper Dolls (2005) Pizza: The Movie (2004) 6.6/10 (50 votes) Playing for Keeps (2004) (V) Proximity (2001) 4.9/10 (228 votes) Public Square, Cleveland (1900) Pulp Diction (2003) 6.1/10 (18 votes) Rainmaker, The (1997) 6.8/10 (10170 votes) ...aka John Grisham's The Rainmaker (1997) Renegade Force (1998) 5.2/10 (231 votes) ...aka Rogue Force (1998) (USA) ...aka Six Angry Men (1998) (UK: video title) Restorers, The (2004) Script Doctor (1999) 5.5/10 (47 votes) Seekers of the Statue (2003) (V) Shadow Creature (1995) 3.2/10 (20 votes) Shooting Star (1993) (V) ...aka Let Me Hear It Out There (1993) (V) Showing a Giant Crane Dumping a 40-Ton Car (1900) Slaughter of the Innocents (1994) 5.1/10 (341 votes) Sleep of Reason, The (2003) 7.4/10 (12 votes) Static (2004) Stranger Than Paradise (1984) 7.5/10 (3611 votes) Striptease Baby Dolls from Cleveland Meet the Unkillables (2005) Summerslam (1996) (V) 6.5/10 (37 votes) Surrogate, The (1984) 4.1/10 (70 votes) ...aka Blind Rage (1984) Survivor Series (2004) (TV) 7.6/10 (48 votes) ...aka WWE Survivor Series (2004) (TV) (USA: promotional title) Telling Lies in America (1997) 6.3/10 (759 votes) Traffic (2000) 7.8/10 (47688 votes) ...aka Traffic - Die Macht des Kartells (2001) (Germany) (Germany) Triangles and Tribulations (2001) (V) Twisted (2001) 8.2/10 (15 votes) Two of Us: A Film About Mates of State (2004) (V) 7.9/10 (8 votes) Universal Newsreel (1945) Unusual Occupations (1937/III) ...aka Unusual Occupations L-7-2 (1937) (USA) View from the Top (2003) 5.1/10 (4599 votes) Vinyl (2000) 7.1/10 (45 votes) Walk, The (1996) (V) Warped Boxes (2002) (V) 4.7/10 (12 votes) We Have Your Daughter (2003) Welcome to Collinwood (2002) 6.1/10 (3536 votes) ...aka Safecrackers oder Diebe haben's schwer (2002) (Germany) Will Work for Food (2005) Women in the Wind (1939) 5.9/10 (16 votes) Women Men Love (1920) WWF No Mercy (1999/II) (V) 8.5/10 (12 votes) You're Right...I'm Sorry (1990) (TV) Zombies in My Neighborhood (2005) (V) 9.2/10 (12 votes)

There were enough fluff quotes in that press release which, if placed at the base of Terminal Tower, it would save the life of a suicide jumper. :sleep:

That's a start. I wonder if the MK Ferguson building has room for the full 300+, or if this site is merely a stopgap?

Is it true that we in Ohio (Midwest?) hold a lot more of these kinds of festivals than other parts of the country? I was reading a message from someone in L.A. on another forum and they had to be educated by a Clevelander as to what a street festival was. I find that hard to believe. By the way, the local TV station that used to show Indians games calls the home opener "Cleveland's National Holiday." Um, if it's just for Cleveland, how can it be a freakin' national holiday???? I hate local TV. Fluff-n-stuff morons.

They showed it on WUAB just prior to the 1994 Indians season (opening of Jacobs Field). I have it on tape. It was filmed in 1949, and is about a kid who was getting into trouble, but loves baseball. So several members of the Cleveland Indians (who won the World Series the prior year) take him under their wing. They didn't use actors to play the Indians. They used the actual Indians players, including hall of famers Bob Feller, Lou Boudreau, Larry Doby and others. It's an OK movie, but the scenes of 1940s Cleveland and the Indians are terrific. EDIT: Oops, I just realized others posted on this movie. I was able to watch the trailer of "The OH in Ohio" though it downloads with lots of hiccups (even though I have a cable modem) but runs smoothly the second time. I like the appearance of it, since it doesn't seem to go for the usual Hollywood stereotype grit view of Cleveland. Looks like it shows Cleveland's youthful, upscale settings.

In Cuyahoga County, the oldest building still standing on its original site is the Dunham Tavern, 6709 Euclid Ave., Cleveland. It was built in 1824 as a stagecoach stop along the Buffalo-Cleveland-Detroit post road. Here's a web link for the museum, which is open to the public. http://www.dunhamtavern.org/ It has many mid-19th century artifacts on display and the barn is available for various organizational functions. Hours: Wed & Sun 1-4 p.m. Admission: adult - $2, child - $1 (216) 431-1060 A little history about the Dunham Tavern follows this graphic... Rufus and Jane Pratt Dunham, a young couple from Mansfield, Massachusetts, came to the Western Reserve in 1819. They acquired 13-3/4 acres of land and began to farm. A log cabin served as their home while the north portion of the present structure was built in 1824. Later the main block of the house was added in front of this wing, and it is thought that the west wing was built in 1832. Rufus Dunham became a tavernkeeper as well as a farmer, and his home served as a social and political center for the area. Contemporary newspaper articles mention turkey shoots and meetings of the Whig Party at the Dunham Tavern. The Dunhams sold the Tavern in 1853, but it continued to serve the public until 1857. At that time a banker bought it for his home, and thereafter it served as a residence through the era of the rise and decline of the "Euclid Avenue Mansions" and the rapid growth of Cleveland. In the 1930's the Tavern served as studio space for a group of WPA artists and print-makers. Mr. A. Donald Gray, a landscape architect who had his office in the Taproom, was instrumental in preserving the site. The Society of Collectors, organized in the early 1930's, became interested in the Tavern and eventually undertook to maintain and operate Dunham Tavern as a museum. They took over this responsibility in 1941 and once again the Tavern was open to the public, but now as a living museum.

HAHA!!! :-D Go Cavs! It was an exciting game tonight, but should never have been that close against a poor team like Charlotte.

Interest is being renewed in this, especially from Lorain County. I wrote this report to answer some questions about how to do an introductory rail service for a start-up cost of just ... $13 million (that's not a typo). Here's a link to the report (a 1.6mb PDF download) http://members.cox.net/neotrans/WestShoreGreenwayReport.pdf NOTE TO MEDIA AND OTHERS: DO NOT QUOTE ME FROM THIS REPORT OR OTHERWISE USE MY NAME IN ARTICLES. HOWEVER, YOU MAY QUOTE ALONG THE LINES OF "...according to a NEOtrans report. NEOtrans is the consulting arm of the nonprofit All Aboard Ohio." CONTACT ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

That may be all the room the reporter was allowed to have for the article. I wrote something longer on the same subject, but had to chop it to fit the allotted space between the ads :| ... http://www.cleveland.com/sun/westsidesunnews/index.ssf?/base/news-0/114132148155690.xml&coll=3 RTA officials make case for increase Thursday, March 02, 2006 By Ken Prendergast West Side Sun News While the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority's board hasn't made a decision about a proposed fare increase, administrators are making the case for one. They note that, without a fare increase, the countywide operator of buses and trains will likely see a $10 million deficit by 2008. That assumes fuel prices remain about where they are now. If the board agrees with RTA General Manager Joe Calabrese and his staff, riders will not see a fare increase before July, Calabrese said. The current basic fare is $1.25, while the express fare for longer trips by bus and most by rail is $1.50. .....

That's a lot of balls. CWRU is a good school, but when they achieve the standing that the orchestra has achieved within its own category, then they might have some standing to make such a ballsy request. So when are we going to change the name to "University Circle at the Case Campus"?

By the way, MayDay, I forgot to mention in my earlier congrats on the photo spread: Great views of crowds downtown! I rag on fellow UrbanOhioans for taking pictures moreso of buildings and streetscapes, without making much of an attempt to capture the other thing that makes a city a city: people. That's why I don't go out in July to take photos of snow scenes. It's also why I don't go downtown on Sunday mornings to take pictures of downtown -- only the inanimate part of it will be there. Unless, of course, my intention is to convey a message that downtown is desolate (the extreme opposite message comes from St. Patrick's Day pictures, which says downtown is bursting at the scenes). I think we all know the reality lies somewhere in the middle. Sometimes, it really is feast or famine.

Wouldn't ya know, The Oil Drum just posted an article on this very subject yesterday.... http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/3/18/174032/731#more Living Large in Exurbia Posted by Dave on Sat Mar 18 at 5:40 PM EST Topic: Miscellaneous Tags: exurbia, suburbia, sprawl, texas, california, phoenix, florida, virginia, fastest growing counties, us census bureau (all tags) Love him or hate him, I doubt many Peak Oil adherents think that Jim Kunstler is wrong about the unsustainability and gloomy future of America's sprawl culture. It started for me this week when National Public Radio did a series of stories about Phoenix Grows and Grows (audio) which according to the latest US Census Bureau statistics, is now the fifth largest city in America. But we're not talking about suburban sprawl. The hottest new demographic is the growth of Exurbia, the suburbs beyond the suburbs. Before engaging in some analysis of this deplorable trend, I thought I'd give you the Big Picture from Fastest-growing counties suburban, rural from MSNBC. This recent press release ( http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/archives/population/006563.html ) from the census bureau has been the source of a spate of news stories from the MSM. But the data they provide does not tell the most pertinent fact about this exurbia boom. We can get that from Metro area 'fringes' are booming from USA Today. Where the growth is The USA's fastest-growing counties with populations greater than 10,000 in 2004-05, with their percentage of growth and the driving distance from the county seat to the nearest major city: Rank/county Growth Distance 1. Flagler, Fla. 10.7% 25 miles to Daytona Beach 2. Lyon, Nev. 9.6% 80 miles to Reno 3. Kendall, Ill. 9.4% 50 miles to Chicago 4. Rockwall, Texas 7.7% 20 miles to Dallas 5. Washington, Utah 7.7% 120 miles to Las Vegas 6. Nye, Nev. 7.4% 210 miles to Las Vegas 7. Pinal, Ariz. 6.9% 60 miles to Phoenix 8. Loudoun, Va. 6.8% 35 miles to Washington 9. King George, Va. 6.7% 60 miles to Richmond 10. Caroline, Va. 6.5% 40 miles to Richmond Sources: Census Bureau, USA TODAY research Stuart has done a long series of posts on the correlation between GDP growth and vehicle miles traveled (VMT). Some of the fastest-growing counties in 2005 lie on the farthest edges of large metropolitan areas, stretching the definition of "exurbs" to the limit.... "It's not just the decade of the exurbs but the decade of the exurbs of the exurbs," says William Frey, demographer at the Brookings Institution. "People are leaving expensive cores and going as far out as they can to get a big house and a big yard. Suburbia is moving much further out." Rising gas prices do not seem to have steered Americans away from this outward push. Skyrocketing housing prices in major markets are a major contributor to growth in far-flung areas, Frey says. Virginia's King George County, for example, is attracting people who commute 90 miles to Washington. The spillover began along Interstate 95 south of the capital and then moved east toward King George. The county grew 6.7% to 20,637 from 2004 to 2005. More vehicle miles traveled! When you live in the Exurbs, you can't walk, you can't ride your bike, there's no buses, there's rarely a train service to get you to the city where your job is. Carpooling is impractical. You are completely dependent on your car and you spend a lot of time in it. You have no choice. Zero choice. That's the simple truth of it. It's a 90 mile commute to Washington, DC. from King George County in Virginia and 60 miles to Richmond, the 9th fastest growing county in the US. So does this mean, perverting Stuart's analysis altogether, that now that we are developing more and more of America's rural lands to build Exurban communities with a concomitant rise in VMT, that this will cause US GDP growth to rise? Exurbia is really a good thing for America. Just kidding! But maybe I should take this more seriously. As far as US GDP growth is concerned, it seems to be all about new home building, buying SUVs and cars, high-tech gadgets and pharmaceuticals. As Peak Oil arrives, increasingly all we'll have left are the toys (blackberries, ipods, cellphones) and the drugs. There seems to be some poetic justice in that. If the truth doesn't save us, what does that say about us? -- from Lois McMaster Bujold. Sigh. OK, let's do some analysis of the Exurban boom. First its important to know that there is a set of huge land development companies behind the trek to Exurbia. One of these is KB Home and they've got it down to a science. From this NY Times article Living Large, by Design, in the Middle of Nowhere, we learn More than three dozen other communities in Pasco County [outside Tampa, Florida], some bigger than New River, are in the works, promising 100,000 new homes in the next five years. A megamall is coming. And the first of the big-box stores, a Home Depot and a Sam's Club, had their gala openings not long ago. In the case of New River [Pasco County], that developer is KB Home, one of the nation's biggest and most profitable builders with $7 billion in sales last year, which helped make it sixth among all Standard & Poor's 500 companies in total revenues. KB Home has 483 communities under development in 13 states and expects to complete more than 40,000 new homes this year. Yet it is just one of about two dozen such corporate giants fiercely competing for land and customers at the edge of America's suburban expanse.... Poring over elaborate market research, these corporations divine what young families want, addressing things like carpet texture and kitchen placement and determining how many streetlights and cul-de-sacs will evoke a soothing sense of safety. They know almost to the dollar how much buyers are willing to pay to exchange a longer commute for more space, a sense of higher status and the feeling of security.... But if there were no demand for these exurban communities, nobody would build them. Give the people what they want. In its most recent survey of Tampa home buyers, KB asked people what they valued the most in their home and community. They wanted more space and a greater sense of security. Safety always ranks second, even in communities where there is virtually no crime. Asked what they wanted in a home, 88 percent said a home security system, 93 percent said they preferred neighborhoods with "more streetlights" and 96 percent insisted on deadbolt locks or security doors. But the chief driving force is affordibility. Now that we've had inflation in housing prices, the housing bubble, for some years now--which you know as well as I do is going to burst--the tradeoff between commuting time and the cheaper prices in exurbia are still well worth it to these prospective home buyers, Particularly, they want all that space. These are McMansions, 4000 square feet or up. And apparently, they want more security. "Paranoia runs deep in the heartland" as a band from the 1960's once sang. Presumably, Al-Qaeda is expected to show little interest in Kendall County 50 miles outside of Chicago. Let's finish up by revisiting Arizona. Phoenix is not so much a city per se, it is a conglomeration of exurban communities like Tempe, Mesa, Scottsdale, et. al. It's a desert and it gets very hot out there. Daytime temperatures are well over 100° for several months of the year. Our audio from NPR (cited above) notes that it is a heat island and in last few decades night time temperatures have risen 11° fahrenheit. In addition, it is expected that soon night time temperatures will fail to get below 100° during the warmest months. You can not live there without air conditioning--it is simply impossible. Where's all this electricity going to come from? And where's the water going to come from? Currently, it's from the Salt River described in this bizarre "no need to worry" FAQ document entitled "Phoenix in Drought". This is not what I would call an infinite supply source. Finally, this Greater Phoenix Economic Council document describes the projected population there out to 2020. That would be 5,210,000 people in 2020. And what about the price of oil and gasoline in 2020 in an Exurban Paradise bigger than Los Angeles County that is entirely dependent on cars and trucks? $15/gallon? $140/barrel? And the NPR story quotes that the population is expected to be over 7 million some 35 years from now! It was at this point, listening to the story that I just burst out laughing. My immediate facetious thought was that the Phoenix Metro area would be able to comfortably support about 70 or 80 people at that point. Real Estate developers can entice these consumers but most of the time people just fool ourselves. They are not aware of energy and other resource issues (eg. water). Impossible, unsustainable exponential growth issues simply do not exist for them. The post-World War II American Dream lives on and on for now until at some point in the fairly near future, it doesn't. For a few more years, these upwardly mobile Exurbanites will have what they consider the "good life". But nothing lasts forever. As John Maynard Keynes could have said about Phoenix, "In the long-run we are all dead."

I keep trying to bring this discussion back over to population and land use, and youse guys keep talking energy/transportation stuff! :wink: Yeah, I realize the connection between them as much as anyone. That's why we have The Great Peak Oil Thread in the transportation section, but few people post there. Yet they seem to enjoy partaking in the discussion here. Go figure. :-P

Don't forget that plastics are made from petroleum, as are fertilizers. The cost of virtually everything will go up when we pass the peak in oil supplies, which could happen in a few minutes or a few decades. We just won't know until after it happens since far too many nations (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iran, etc.) consider their oil field data to be a state secret. Kuwait recently invited foreign oil companies to help them extract oil from their largest, albeit aging oil field (that should tell you something right there). When the oil executives came across oil field reserves data in document form, the executives were stunned at what it showed. Kuwait had less than half the actual oil reserves than what the Kuwait government had been publicizing since the 1980s. Perhaps it shouldn't have been a surprise. In the 1980s, most OPEC nations doubled their reserves estimates in a single year. It wasn't because they all had made massive discoveries within the same time frame. It was because OPEC adopted a new quota system which used existing reserves to determine how much each nation was allowed to sell. See this post of mine at: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php?topic=3590.msg71873#msg71873 Back to the population issue: American cities are going to be a great deal of difficulty to handle this situation. Think about how well you can function with the cost side of your budget going up anywhere from 10 to 50 percent over a relatively short period of time (say 5-10 years). Our economy is predicated on the assumption of future growth (the basis of all loans and debt). A car is the second greatest expense most of us have, comprising an average of 20 percent of our budgets. The reason is because we choose to own one and assume the fixed costs, rather than rent them, making it a variable cost burden on our budgets. While cars are luxuries, housing, food and transportation are not. So, if you're going to cut a big expense, a car may be the first thing to go. Problem is, it is virtually impossible to function in most U.S. metropolitan areas without a car. That's as much a land use problem as it a transportation problem. Design cities for post-peak oil world, and we will become more energy efficient. I doubt we'll be able to accomplish that herculean task before we crest the peak, but it doesn't mean we should try. We will still be able to cope with post-peak better if we make the effort.

To prevent people from getting depressed and/or feeling powerless to stop, or at least slow urban sprawl, let me suggest some existing tools that can be put into play by local and county governments, regional planning organizations, farmland owners, nonprofit groups and others: 1. A farmland owner can petition to have his/her property of at least 10 acres declared an agricultural district as long as the property earns, or will earn $2,500 over a three year span (included predicted future earnings). A local referendum is not required to zone the property as an agricultural district. Instead, the locally elected body (city council, village council, township trustees, etc.). For more information on agricultural districts, visit http://ohioline.osu.edu/cd-fact/1268.html 2. Expand Soil & Water Conservation Districts in counties where the loss of natural lands are threatened by sprawling new development. Expand and link up enough districts, and it creates a defacto urban growth boundary around our metro areas. County commissioners have the power to expand the district in their county, and every single one of Ohio's 88 counties has a Soil & Water Conservation District in it. For more information, visit http://www.ofswcd.org/ 3. Metropolitan Planning Organizations need to create smart growth planning principles and, just as important, enforce them. The Northeast Ohio Areawide Coordinating Agency has some terrific planning principles their board enacted a couple of years ago, but they don't enforce them. There has to be consequences for not enforcing the principles, but the natural consequences are too long term for MPO board members to see, not when most are elected mayors, council people or otherwise unable to see past the next election. Here are some important facts to keep in mind when communicating to local governments about controlling sprawl: Too many local officials see new homes getting built and count only the taxes they generate, not the costs they incur. Based on a more accurate measuring stick -- called "NET FISCAL IMPACT" -- the farmland replaced by that subdivision has a net fiscal impact of $1.05 to $1.10 in taxes generated for every $1 of local governmental cost. That's equivalent to what a tax-rich new industry or office park generates. On the other hand, few housing subdivisions generate more taxes than they incur in local governmental costs (garbage pickup, sewers, schools, law enforcement, snow removal, etc.). Housing subdivisions are net fiscal losers! Could you imagine a mayor advocating eliminating a local office park for a housing development? Of course not. But when it comes to eliminating a farm for a housing development, that's exactly what's happening on a net fiscal impact basis. Mayors should lose re-election bids for supporting new housing developments on farmland, but instead the voting public sees their community as growing and prospering. Well, they're half right.

Excellent points. On the one I've quoted, I think that's something that folks like Kunstler et al haven't given due credit to. The prominence of many edge cities where there are large concentrations of daytime employment populations will likely survive pretty much intact, but will require a change in their land use to ensure their vitality. I can see them adding high-density residential at office campuses, basic retail, putting large surface parking lots into decks with smaller footprints, adding sidewalks and bike paths, etc. One issue that I think bodes well for Ohio is it's ability to grow its own food to feed its own population. Blessed will be those regions where food doesn't have to be transported as far. I think the American Southwest is in trouble, and even the Southeast to some degree, considering that their populations are also too large for their ecosystems to support, based on the sea water that's being drawn "upstream" far inland into freshwater reserviors and underground aquifers. One thing we have plenty of in Ohio is water and farmland, unless we keep paving it over or we decide corn is more important for feeding our cars ethanol than it is for food to feed ourselves.

My city has more ghettos than yours does! nya nya! Please...

It assumes that people are aware of the alternatives and consider them viable. For some, the status of living in a big new home in Avon, Brunswick, Twinsburg, Chesterland or Madison will be tough for them to give up. Some of these folks may consider moving back into the inner ring suburbs a "retreat" from the progress in their lives and will hold out for as long as they can. Some will push their elected officials to create more incentives (tax breaks, energy efficiency initiatives, etc) to enable a continuation of the lifestyle. But think about what all this means for the inner-ring suburbs, especially those where much of their housing stock is comprised of tiny bungalows from the 1940s-60s. People today want rec rooms, home offices and living rooms to fit that armior with the home theater in it. Cleveland at least has vacant land to build contemporary homes; inner ring suburbs typically do not. These issues were spelled out in a report done a couple years by the First Suburbs Consortium on ways to help homeowners modernize or build additions to bungalows. Who knows.... If gas prices keep ticking upward (and if you read my posts in the Peak Oil thread, clearly I believe gas prices will keep trending much higher), older, walkable, transit friendly cities like Cleveland could become the new high-growth areas and the inner-ring suburbs may be left in a state of flux. It's the exurbs that are threatened in a post-Peak Oil environment, but that's probably going to take some time to shake out given people's unwillingness to abruptly change their lifestyles. For the time being, the post-war suburban housing boom remains the institutionalized policy of this nation, even in metro areas that aren't growing in population. It will probably take something dramatic to alter it. Nothing lasts forever.

Check out some of the housing trends analyses done by Tom Bier at CSU. To summarize it: West Side Example: 1. Developer builds new homes on former cornfield in Avon, as son of deceased farmer couldn't afford to pay estate tax and wasn't excited about becoming a farmer himself; 2. Middle- to upper-class North Olmsted or Fairview Park resident wants new house, feeling of moving up in the world, quieter surroundings, bigger rooms in house for things like massive entertainment center and computer desks, lower taxes (because Avon has space to build things that add to taxbase whereas NO or FP have little room nor money to raze/rebuild so they have to raise tax rates); 3. House in North Olmsted or Fairview Park goes on the market. Middle-class resident of Lakewood or Cleveland's West Park buys the home, seeking better schools for their kids (while Lakewood schools are pretty decent, their high school is getting rough); 4. House in Lakewood or West Park goes on the market. House doesn't sell right away. When the price goes down a bit, a businessman buys the home and rents it to a working-class single mother who wants a safer neighborhood for her children where drugs and gangs are rare; 5. Rental home left vacant in Clark-Metro, Stockyards or Cudell neighborhood of Cleveland. Owner of home cannot pay expenses of home and the bank forecloses on the mortgage. Tax liens are filed against property. Lead paint is found in home. The house falls into disrepair and despite interest by some in purchasing the home, the myriad of legal and environmental complications involved with the home, it stays empty. Gangs hold drug parties in house. House boarded up by police. Boards are pulled off door by thieves who steal its copper pipes and conduits. Home is set ablaze by kids. Neighborhood complaints result in the city acquiring it at sheriff's auction and demolishing it. Land sits vacant until a decade or more passes and enough homes in the neighborhood suffer the same fate. Developer builds new homes in area. Result: Those who lived in Cleveland moved to inner-ring suburb. Those who lived in inner-ring suburb moved to middle-ring suburb. Those who lived in middle-ring suburb moved to exurb. Now, think about that part. Each time we build a new ring of exurbs in a region that isn't growing in population, the ring of wealth is pushed farther out and the low-income residents ultimately follow on its heels in chasing it. The "ring of despair" as I call it also chases the earlier rings. It leaves trail of blight in its wake. What's more troublesome is that while some communities can slow this process by modernizing (such as through raze/rebuild) their housing stock, there is NOTHING THEY CAN DO TO STOP THEIR DEMISE. The answer lies less in the core city but at the urban fringe, for as long as it keeps getting pushed farther out, it will keep dispersing the region's population, its purchasing power and its taxbases. Those are spread across a tax-supported infrastructure of schools, roads and utilities that's many times larger and more expensive when compared to the population served. Until we figure out a politically acceptable way to rein in development at the urban fringe, communities within high-sprawl, low-growth metro areas don't get to keep their wealth. They only borrow it for about 50 years, only to watch it slip away to the next community farther out from the urban center. Enjoy it while it lasts.