Before & After

 

 

The top could be any of those neighborhoods along Salem and Main Street north/northwest of downtown, and the bottom the direction they are headed based on current trends in depopulation, vacancy, and, soon, demolition. 

 

And I should caveat that thread title by saying this is the future of Dayton beyond most of the historic distrcts, which seem to be doing OK. 

 

Why is Dayton tearing out all of their trees?

^^I am not sure that is a good comparison.  In the lower photo, I see what looks like a lot of industry built around the houses.  That style neighborhood, which we see up here in CLE in neighborhood like Collinwood, is just plain "out" in the 21st century.... especially with single family homes.

 

^Trees only have a certain lifespan... which I believe is shortened when planted around concrete (restricts the roots).  My Dad's neighborhood in Charlotte has a major issue because it is lined with gigantic, but slowly dying, southern Oaks.  It can be a real nuisance.  BUT, the City should replant... even if they are just ornamental trees like Cherries or Crabtrees

 

 

Why is Dayton tearing out all of their trees?

 

It isn't.  Those are two different sections of the city.

^

...and they aren't even in Dayton.  They are in Detroit.  Which is remarkable since they do look so much  like generic street scenes in the good old Gem City...which is why I posted them. 

 

I'm speculating here that the process of thinning well underway in Detroit is starting to accelerate in Dayton. 

I hope the demolition is 'smart' so it doesn't ruin all the neighborhoods it affects. As sad as it is, this should be applied neighborhood by neighborhood instead of house by house.

From what I can tell (from talking to city planners and even going on driving tours of areas of the city targeted for significant demo), only neighborhoods that are already past the point of no return will see serious demo action.  Dayton has several neighborhoods that look similar to the top picture that Jeffery posted, and I can tell you with certainty that those are not the types of neighborhoods that will see mass demo.  Dayton has several neighborhoods that look like the bottom picture, and those are examples of where serious demo is going to occur, with large sections being turned into nature preserves.

 

I agree that this must be done strategically, and that is the bigger question - what is the overall strategy?

(tip of the hat to C-Dawg who linked to the Federal Reserve site that had a link to this info)

 

The source here is the “Substantial Action Plan Amendment “ to the city of Dayton Neighborhood Stabilization Plan, which I think was the application or program plan for Federal money to do stabilization.

 

The area that I think looks like the upper pic in the thread header is circled in red in these maps,  which confirm what I was suspecting, that the area is under threat, or at the start of a process of thinning out.  As one can see from the following maps other parts of the city are in worse shape.

 

This first map is of “stability”, measured by the number of city-owned properties and low ratings for a condition assessment, combined with stats on foreclosures and “high cost loans” (subprime mortgages), and tax delinquencies.  It is taken down to the census block group level,  1=marginal, 2=least stable

 

 

 

The next map is of concentrations of tax delinquent properties where taxes are 2 + years delinquent.  The report says this number is a good predictor of future abandonment. 

 

 

Most of this is on the west side, which is old news since this area has been seeing the greatest loss in housing stock since 1990.  The one tract in the area outlined in red, south of Fairview or Hillcrest, west of Main Street, was recently profiled as one of the top ten most vacant neighborhoods in the US.

 

Next some high-cost  (subprime?) mortgage numbers and foreclosure predictions (this is an 18 month prediction).  Pretty extensive/

 

 

 

I should note here that the Cleveland Fed has some maps by zip code for “prime mortgage foreclosures, and the Dayton area shows up on that map as a hot spot.  These are not subprime mortgages, but prime (I guess sound or OK?) mortgages.  Perhaps this indicating the effect of the recession, compounding the ongoing subprime crisis.

 

Finally, pulling it all together, the city developed a composite map, rating block groups showing areas that at various degrees of need.  It looks like 1/2 to 2/3 of the city is at the highest score, the “Area of Greatest Need”

 

 

..defined as “multiple significant distress and risk factors are present and stabilization efforts are required”.

 

This info is sourced from the Dayton NSP available at the Cleveland Fed site.  C-Dawg already posted a lot on this, so here is the link:

 

Cleveland Fed page on the Dayton NSP

 

The concluding paragraph is informative as to the future:

 

”The city’s recognition that Dayton’s population will most likely never reach previous levels was pivotal in developing a density-reducing strategy for the city. Similar scenarios are playing out in several other cities especially many weak market cities in the Midwest. According to Dayton officials, the ability to use NSP I funds to demolish vacant structures and create green space is a critical tool in helping them implement the city’s “right-sizing” goals. Unfortunately, under NSP II, this activity is no longer an eligible use of funds”

 

….so, no more demolition money from the Feds.  The 2008 plan was to take down 1,000 units in the “Areas of Greatest Need” and targeted “Areas of Moderate Need”.

 

If abandonment and board-ups continue local or state money will have to be found to keep up with the vacating of the city.

 

 

 

Dayton's NSP 2 application asked for a waiver to the demo policy so they could demolish more.

 

The plan for NSP 2 is to demolish an additional 790 units in the city. 48% of those are in the area circled in red.

duplicate

Very interesting, thanks for this.

The breakdown is:

 

Dayton View Triangle & Fairview:  10

University Row: 20

Hillcrest: 50

Santa Clara/Mnt Vernon:  200

Five Oaks: 100

Northwest Dayton: 380

 

...and Nan Waley lives in Five Oaks.

 

Inner East: 60

Twin Towers: 50

Linden Heights: 50

Walnut Hills: 50

East Dayton: 210

 

Wright Dunbar/Wolf Creek: 50

Roosevelt/McFarlane: 50

Westwood: 100

West Dayton: 200

 

 

...for the suburbs:

 

Ft McKinley: 365

Drexel/Crown Point/Townview: 69

Misc: 91 (including 45 in the little suburb of Union, north of Englewood)