Posted September 3, 201014 yr First a look at today's article about the district from The Economist and then a look at two political ads. Ohio's 1st congressional district In black and white Democrats must energise their base if they are to win in November Sep 2nd 2010 | cincinnati ... This is Ohio’s 1st congressional district. Covering most of Cincinnati and surrounding Hamilton County, it is a diverse political barometer with a Democratic urban core and suburbs full of Republicans and independents. George Bush carried the district in 2004; Barack Obama won it in 2008, by 11 points. Mr Driehaus was elected that year, defeating Steve Chabot, a Republican who had held the seat for 14 years and who now wants it back. ... Mr Driehaus’s voting record is a tough sell here. He voted for the stimulus package and the health-care act, though only after the White House issued an executive order that keeps federal funding restrictions on abortions. Mr Chabot’s record is easier to glean; he resolutely opposed bail-outs when he was a congressman in the autumn of 2008. If elected, he will work to halt funding for the health-care act, though he would support new legislation to cut costs and expand coverage. ... more: http://www.economist.com/node/16943984?story_id=16943984&fsrc=rss Now the ads in the race. First from Rep. Steve Driehaus. Watch this ad and say which political party this guy sounds like he's a member of: Chabot's response basically wrote itself: Steve Driehaus - Double Talk
September 8, 201014 yr Author Driehaus: Race about Cincy, not Obama By Quan Truong • [email protected] • September 7, 2010 U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus warned that his Republican opponent will do everything he can to nationalize the 1st Congressional District election – to make it about President Barack Obama and control of Congress. more: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100907/NEWS010603/9080322/Driehaus-Not-about-Obama
October 13, 201014 yr Seems Democrats have considered this one a lost cause: Democrats yank $500K TV ad buy for Rep. Steve Driehaus In a sign that Democrats may be waving the white flag in Ohio’s 1st Congressional District, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has pulled over $500,000 in TV advertising on Cincinnati TV stations in support of Rep. Steve Driehaus, the Price Hill Democrat who is trying to win a second term in Congress. http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20101012/NEWS0108/310120049/Dems-yank-ads-for-Driehaus
October 24, 201014 yr Driehaus: Race about Cincy, not Obama By Quan Truong • [email protected] • September 7, 2010 U.S. Rep. Steve Driehaus warned that his Republican opponent will do everything he can to nationalize the 1st Congressional District election – to make it about President Barack Obama and control of Congress. more: http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20100907/NEWS010603/9080322/Driehaus-Not-about-Obama He seems to have made it about Pelosi & Boehner.
October 24, 201014 yr I got to see both of these guys talk last week as part of a class at UC, DAAP. Even in a class that mostly consisted of fairly liberal planning, design, and architecture majors - Driehaus didn't make so good of an impression. It wasn't a debate, they each just talked and took questions separately, for an hour each. Chabot gave pretty straightforward answers, even in shooting down the 3-C project (to a class half full of urban planners). Driehaus gave pretty convoluted responses most of the time.
October 27, 201014 yr Poker Player Alliance endorses Driehaus http://www.pokernews.com/news/2010/10/poker-players-alliance-announces-congressional-candidates-en-9218.htm
December 2, 201113 yr Jim Bers will be chaengin Chabot again "Jim Berns of College Hill, who describes himself as Cincinnati's best known Libertarian, filed petitions at the Hamilton County Board of Elections last week to run for Congress in the First District of Ohio." http://downtown-mtauburn.fox19.com/news/politics/82216-libertarian-berns-running-congress-first-district
August 24, 201212 yr 2 interesting stories that could be seen as kinda connected. (well in my demented mind) The gerrymandering of the first district leaves the city of Cincinnati with less of a voice. http://cincinnati.com/blogs/politics/2012/08/23/citys-voice-in-congressional-district-shrinks/ The city of Cincinnati apologizes for actions of a police officer following 1st district congressman, Steve Chabot's orders. http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/local_news/settlement-reached-in-camera-seizing-at-chabot-event So, I'm guessing we can expect more of this in the future even tho Chabot claims to have modified (not corrected) his policies.
August 24, 201212 yr Poll has Jim Berns L beating Steve Chabot 10 to 1 Well, it's a hair poll, but..... http://www.wcpo.com/dpp/news/local_news/water_cooler/congressman-steve-chabots-opponent-pokes-fun-at-his-do-claims-landslide-win-in-hair-poll
September 20, 201212 yr Jim Berns speaks at University of Cincinnati UC News Record story here: http://www.newsrecord.org/news/state/article_f8da580e-02d5-11e2-a770-001a4bcf6878.html
November 7, 201212 yr If I'm reading the precinct info right, Jeff Sinnard walloped Steve Chabot 39,058 to 15,422 in Cincinnati city limits. No wonder Chabot hates Cincinnati.
December 10, 201212 yr Steve Chabot's globetrotting is taken on at the Porktown Fishwarp. Most commenters wonder about his concern for foreign affairs given his lack of concern or even disdain for his district. http://news.cincinnati.com/comments/article/20121209/NEWS0108/312090016/Where-s-Chabot-We-kind-go-interesting-places- Interestingly, India doesn't think much of the guy's foreign policy either http://bharatkarnad.com/2012/02/02/art-of-deal-making/ FWIW, a lot of his foreign policy involves the U.S. military and not statesmanship.
August 13, 201311 yr This article gives handy pronunciation tips for people's names. I know names seem to not follow phonics the way other words do but it appears I've been mispronouncing Steve Chabot's name wrong. "Among planned speakers is U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano (Nuh-PAWL'-ih-tah-no). Ohio Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and Republican Rep. Steve Chabot (SHAH'-but) are also expected to attend." I always used the American short A sound so the a in Chabot would sound like the a in habit. http://www.10tv.com/content/stories/apexchange/2013/08/12/oh--fop-conference.html
August 20, 201311 yr Ohio congressman urges help for zoo's rhino effort Rep. Steve Chabot, R-Cincinnati, who chairs the House subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, recently wrote a letter with other House members to the Indonesian government asking that rhinos be shipped here for the Cincinnati Zoo's breeding program. The zoo has said it will try to mate its two rhinos in an effort to revitalize its captive breeding program, but they are brother and sister and the zoo would prefer to have rhinos from Indonesia for more genetic diversity. http://www.sfgate.com/news/science/article/Ohio-congressman-urges-help-for-zoo-s-rhino-effort-4744109.php
September 20, 201311 yr Steve Chabot, a beneficiary of immoral gerrymandering calls for election reform well, in Cambodia... http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/us-politicians-call-reforms-cambodia
September 20, 201311 yr Steve Chabot, a beneficiary of immoral gerrymandering calls for election reform well, in Cambodia... http://www.phnompenhpost.com/national/us-politicians-call-reforms-cambodia Immoral? I can that smart, it is what you are supposed to do when you have the advantage. Virtually every person in the US that gets busted for election fraud are Dems.
October 16, 201311 yr Chabot's fish tank blew up. http://hoh.rollcall.com/team-chabot-spills-about-exploding-fish-tank/
October 16, 201311 yr Steve Chabot's globetrotting is taken on at the Porktown Fishwarp. Most commenters wonder about his concern for foreign affairs given his lack of concern or even disdain for his district. http://news.cincinnati.com/comments/article/20121209/NEWS0108/312090016/Where-s-Chabot-We-kind-go-interesting-places- Interestingly, India doesn't think much of the guy's foreign policy either http://bharatkarnad.com/2012/02/02/art-of-deal-making/ FWIW, a lot of his foreign policy involves the U.S. military and not statesmanship. It should be kept in mind that India has certain territorial ambitions that are thwarted by an assertive US foreign policy.
October 16, 201311 yr Cincinnati Business Courier calls out Chabot's BS. http://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/blog/2013/10/chabot-has-interesting-priorities.html
January 17, 201411 yr The Diplomat lists Chabot as being from OK instead of OH. oh, if only..... http://thediplomat.com/2014/01/us-congress-takes-hard-line-stance-on-chinas-maritime-disputes/
April 8, 201411 yr I have said the only person who could oust Chabot is another Republican who is crazier than he is. Just might have one. Fred Kundrata is running as a Democrat against Jim Prues in the upcoming primary. He ran as a Republican against Wenstrup previously. His primary voting record is all R. Anybody know what's up with this guy?
April 15, 201411 yr Kindrata explains his switch. Personally, I might ditch the Republicans but I can't imagine joining the Democrats. But then I'm not running for office. Kundrata said that it was during that race that he decided he was, in fact, a Democrat. “I always knew I was a moderate,’’ Kundrata said. “I thought the Republican Party was far more moderate.” But, he said, he learned differently when he saw the influence of the tea party movement on the GOP and couldn’t go along with that. http://wvxu.org/post/can-chabot-be-beaten-these-two-think-so
May 8, 201411 yr Uncontested, Chabot got about 17,000 votes in the primary while 2 Democrats combined got about 10,000 votes. Both parties got <10% of registered voters. Kundrata got the Dem nom.
August 7, 201410 yr ^ Nice shout out for "Urban Ohio" in there! I met Fred a few years back when he was running in the 2nd district Republican primary. Seemed like a nice enough guy. Comes off fairly polished in this video. I wonder if he is getting any DCCC help.
August 7, 201410 yr I'm not seeing it Not seeing the polish? Or the shout out to urban Ohio? He cares about Northside!
August 8, 201410 yr He says something like "I understand the struggles of people in rural ... and Urban Ohio"
October 21, 20168 yr The first peep we've heard from Chabot's challenger: http://www.cincinnati.com/story/opinion/contributors/2016/10/20/chabot-relic-another-era/92428922/
January 28, 20187 yr Pureval tells donors he intends to run for Chabot's seat this fall National Democrats probably have landed a big Cincinnati recruit in their quest to take back the U.S. House this year. Hamilton County Clerk of Courts Aftab Pureval requested donors support him if he runs for U.S. Rep. Steve Chabot’s, R-Westwood, seat in November and told them he intends to jump in the race. “I think it’s happening,” said a person familiar with the calls Pureval has made who spoke on the condition of anonymity. More below: https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/01/27/pureval-tells-donors-he-intends-to-run-for-chabots.html "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
January 29, 20187 yr Pureval lives in Hyde Park, in Ohio's 2nd Congressional district, and is planning to run in the 1st against a lifetime West Sider? I don't see that going very well. If he lived downtown or in OTR or someplace actually in the district he might have a shot, but he will be painted as a yuppie Hyde Parker attempting to colonize the west side.
January 29, 20187 yr I can't see why he is going to do this either. Of course he is destined for larger office, but taking on Chabot now is a lot different than taking on Chabot when Dreihaus won in 2008, plus it is not a presidential election year which will be tough. Even a West Sider like Cranley couldn't win over there.
January 29, 20187 yr He may or may not have a chance of actually winning, but it would be silly for Dems to not run a qualified candidate in the a year when Dems are expected to gain back some house seats.
January 29, 20187 yr Running an aggressive campaign in Hamilton county could help turnout for Dems in this area, and it could actually make a difference in the gubernatorial election. Also, I think he has a chance to win if Democrats turn up in record numbers.
January 29, 20187 yr 2008: Steve Driehaus 52.45%, Steve Chabot 47.5% 2010: Steve Driehaus 45.99%, Steve Chabot 51.49% If District 1 were the same shape today it was from 2002 to 2010, I think it would be a no-brainer that Chabot should be worried about the competition. However, due to the extreme gerrymandering that occurred after the 2010 census, the district is now much safer for Chabot, and he has gotten between 57 and 63 percent of the vote in each election since 2012.
January 29, 20187 yr Warren County is a GOP stronghold. As someone who lived in that area for a decade, this is an uphill climb for anyone with a D after their name. “All truly great thoughts are conceived while walking.” -Friedrich Nietzsche
January 29, 20187 yr ^ On the flip side, the redistricting in 2010 helped make OH2 more competitive. It balanced out OH1 and OH2 - each is now about 60% Republican, 40% Democrat - which aligns well with how the Cincinnati metro area is composed as a whole. You'd have to really gerrymander the two districts in order to get more competitive results in either one. Prior to 2010, I'd say the districts unfairly lumped much of southwest Ohio's republican population into OH2.
January 29, 20187 yr You'd have to really gerrymander the two districts in order to get more competitive results in either one. This would only be true if there were a more even geographical distribution of voters. The way it is, the R-voters are spread out and the D-voters are concentrated in one area. An area which "conveniently" is split up by an oddly-shaped boundary, while areas in all the other parts of the region have clean lines. ?
January 29, 20187 yr It seems like Hamilton County would be just about perfect for a Congressional District. It's just about balanced between Republicans and Democrats, is almost entirely urban or suburban (though there are some rural areas remaining on the west sides of the county), and there is a good racial mix. The needs of some rural farmer in Warren County are much different than those of an urban or suburban resident of Cincinnati, so it makes no sense to have those areas combined into one district.
January 29, 20187 yr ^ Exactly. Hamilton County's 2010 population was 802,374. District 1 has 731,181 residents and district 3 has 713,709. District 1 should basically be Hamilton County minus just enough residents to get it down to the necessary threshold for equal representation. There is no logical reason to split Hamilton County right down the middle other than to dilute the blue votes in the center city.
January 30, 20187 yr If you start making districts strictly urban vs. suburban/rural, you'd just be gentrifying in favor of Democrats. You'd have one district mostly, but barely, blue and two surrounding suburban/rural districts (2 and 8) that were overwhelmingly red. If the requirement is to make districts geographically concise, there's no reason not to split Cincinnati in half. There's a pretty strong cultural justification for splitting Hamilton County down the middle, anyway. Anyone who has lived in Cincinnati for any amount of time is aware of the east side/west side cultural divide. I think the Warren/Butler county flip gets away from this principle, but not egregiously so.
January 30, 20187 yr I don't want to get too deep into the topic of gerrymandering since we have another thread dedicated to that. However I will say, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission has been perhaps the most successful non-partisan redistricting organization, and one of their six criteria for drawing districts is: "Geographic Integrity: Districts shall minimize the division of cities, counties, local neighborhoods and communities of interests to the extent possible, without violating previous criteria." I think this would be a great thing to require of Ohio's redistricting process as well.
January 31, 20187 yr Purveal announces is in the race! https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/01/31/purveal-ties-chabot-to-trump-as-he-launches.html What data do you have that makes you think you can win? It’s a heavily Republican district. It’s got Warren County. Do you have any polling? The energy. The people I’ve talked to across the district. Everyone is fired up. Everyone sees the vision for our country, the disastrous policies of (Speaker) Paul Ryan, Steve Chabot and Donald Trump, and they’ve had enough. Those conversations have inspired me to believe this district is winnable. We’ve done our research.
January 31, 20187 yr He's gonna lose :(. There is no hope :(. We're all doomed :(. "You don't just walk into a bar and mix it up by calling a girl fat" - buildingcincinnati speaking about new forumers
January 31, 20187 yr One of the things that worked well for him as clerk of courts was that it was a non-partisan race and he was able to keep his hands clean and be positive and let other people be the goons. He will not be able to in this race and that may hurt him more than most especially when dealing with the Warren County voter. I just cant see how he wins this. It will not be career suicide for him, but his next step would be city politics then.
January 31, 20187 yr We'll see. I actually know Aftab personally from his time when we were both together in USG at OSU. I like him and he is a born campaigner (and apparently at least a halfway-decent executive, too). Of course, OSU was around 15 years ago now and we haven't spoken since I graduated (I think I was a year ahead of him, maybe two).
January 31, 20187 yr ^ I have met him a few times too, he is a good guy and hard worker. This campaign is a whole different animal than running for clerk of courts. He certainly can raise money though. I just think the whole district leans too much GOP now.
