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The rebuilding has begun....

 

 

 

Edited by KJP

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

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  • Boaty McBoatface
    Boaty McBoatface

    Long time lurker, first time poster! As someone who is about to move back to Cleveland from Austin, I can safely say that while the downtown rental market is “stabilizing” it is still blood sport. I l

  • For anyone who's curious about the 20,000 number and where it comes from. Four census tracts: 1071.01, 1077.01, and 1078.02 which are the normal downtown boundary most people think of, AND 1033 which

  • FWIW I've heard that the new condos in the old Holiday Inn building are selling very well, for above-market prices. That's encouraging if any developers are considering going for sale versus rental. 

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Look at how much better East 4th Street already looks after just a few hours of clean-up.

 

Downtown is now being sealed off for the rest of the day. All streets and bridges into downtown are blocked. The movable bridges across the rivers are left up/open. High-level bridges are closed. No one is allowed on the streets after noon. All cars parked on streets will be towed.....

 

Way to go @mack34 !!

 

 

 

Edited by KJP

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

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A couple of videos....

 

AND

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

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Looking forward to hearing/reading this report...

 

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

  • 3 weeks later...
  • Author

Redirected from the Lumen thread....

 

3 minutes ago, simplythis said:

Hmmm. This part is not good to read in this article.   -  

While it’s unclear whether demand for downtown apartments will drop in the long term, recent statistics are not promising.

The Downtown Cleveland Alliance said in a report that 13.7% of apartments were vacant in the neighborhood at the end of June, compared with 7.8% during the same period last year. Some developers and worried that downtown has too many apartments, even as others propose plans to add even more.

 

 

And some developers obviously aren't worried. Yet the article dwells on the negative viewpoint. Rather than focus on superficial reactions, it would be helpful for them to take deeper dive on the market and WHAT developers are now proposing and why. Yes, the conventional/traditional apartment may be close to topping out with current downtown employment conditions (a situation that will likely change after COVID, SHW, Cleveland-Cliffs, CrossCountry, et al). But what is the market like after more affordable mirco and workforce housing units are added? Will it trigger more development of micro and workforce housing. And if your media format doesn't allow for that kind of deep-dive discussion, then maybe the demand for your media product is what's not promising.

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

Didn't we already think the apartment vacancy rate was going to increase before the pandemic?

 

we have close to 1000 apartments hitting the market on Euclid Avenue Downtown alone, between May Co., TT, Beacon and Lumen. There are also smaller projects dotted around downtown and the near West side, which just across the river has / is about to add many hundreds of apartments.

 

There are going to be people moving between buildings, and some just waiting for the building housing the apartment they really want to be finished.

 

The vacancy rate spiked just based on the sheer volume of apartments hitting the market within the same period. The pandemic is only going to slow down the "recovery rate" of the spike a little.

 

Euclid Grand and 75PS (or Public Square North?) will cause a spike if they hit the market close together.

 

It takes years to plan and construct some of these projects and the vacancy rate in 2020 will be different in 2022 when the building would hit the market.

 

Nobody knows what the future will hold, but with all the incentives to build (OZ, city, state and Federal credits) coupled with the employment numbers downtown, Cleveland's market still looks like it will continue to have an acceptable ROI to build. 

 

13.7% isn't even that high?

1 hour ago, KJP said:

Redirected from the Lumen thread....

 

 

And some developers obviously aren't worried. Yet the article dwells on the negative viewpoint. Rather than focus on superficial reactions, it would be helpful for them to take deeper dive on the market and WHAT developers are now proposing and why. Yes, the conventional/traditional apartment may be close to topping out with current downtown employment conditions (a situation that will likely change after COVID, SHW, Cleveland-Cliffs, CrossCountry, et al). But what is the market like after more affordable mirco and workforce housing units are added? Will it trigger more development of micro and workforce housing. And if your media format doesn't allow for that kind of deep-dive discussion, then maybe the demand for your media product is what's not promising.

That would involve doing real work. Actual journalism work. Which today’s journalists avoid like the plague 

For some perspective.  According to DCA

 

2019 - Q2 - 92.2% - 7167 units = 6608 occupied.

2020 - Q2 - 86.3% - 7842 units = 6768 occupied.  

 

Even with a pandemic going on we still have 160 more units occupied than we did the year previous.  Without the pandemic it may have been much higher.  All this to say that there is no reason to panic and we are still going in a good direction.

Echoing what has already been said above, I'm not worried about that number. If the total number of occupied units had decreased, then that would be cause for concern. Just factoring in the Lumen, they are still in their lease up phase with something like 27% occupied now. That would mean the the other 72% (229 units) of this large building building in counted as vacant, even though the units are vacant not because there is no demand, but because the Lumen management has not gotten to the time yet to have them ready for move in. Factor in the May Co building which is even larger and in the same situation, and of course the vacancy rate goes up. Subtract those units from the factoring and I'm sure the vacancy rate would be similar to last years.

3 hours ago, cle_guy90 said:

For some perspective.  According to DCA

 

2019 - Q2 - 92.2% - 7167 units = 6608 occupied.

2020 - Q2 - 86.3% - 7842 units = 6768 occupied.  

 

Even with a pandemic going on we still have 160 more units occupied than we did the year previous.  Without the pandemic it may have been much higher.  All this to say that there is no reason to panic and we are still going in a good direction.

 

What's a possible concern it that the absorbtion rate has been stated to be about 550 units per year and that shows only 160.

Remember: It's the Year of the Snake

20 minutes ago, Dougal said:

 

What's a possible concern it that the absorbtion rate has been stated to be about 550 units per year and that shows only 160.

That's fair but again with a pandemic the fact that we are still growing makes me not too nervous.  It may be a little slower than what it was before and maybe we need to scale back with newer projects to let all these ones hitting the market be absorbed (especially the ones that are more generic in nature) but I don't think the Downtown Apartment market is headed in a bad direction.

  • Author

Could be worse....

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

^That's like a 5 or 6% vacancy rate in that huge market.

  • Author

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

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And out-of-town developers are noticing

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

Cleveland school levy, downtown vitality are hot topics at Crain's Real Estate Forum
 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/cleveland-school-levy-downtown-vitality-are-hot-topics-crains-real-estate-forum

 

I love everything about this quote from Playhouse Square CEO Gina Vernaci in the article..
 

"If history is our teacher on this, 100 years ago we had a pandemic," she said. "And we had a world war. And we had a financial crisis. And these theaters at Playhouse Square were built at that time, and when they opened, people were lined up around the block to get in.

 

"So we know that people want to come back downtown. We're human beings. We want to gather. How can we not waste this time wishing for it to be different, as opposed to using this time to make this a friendly environment for development?"

 

 

3 hours ago, Sapper Daddy said:

Cleveland school levy, downtown vitality are hot topics at Crain's Real Estate Forum
 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/cleveland-school-levy-downtown-vitality-are-hot-topics-crains-real-estate-forum

 

I love everything about this quote from Playhouse Square CEO Gina Vernaci in the article..
 

"If history is our teacher on this, 100 years ago we had a pandemic," she said. "And we had a world war. And we had a financial crisis. And these theaters at Playhouse Square were built at that time, and when they opened, people were lined up around the block to get in.

 

"So we know that people want to come back downtown. We're human beings. We want to gather. How can we not waste this time wishing for it to be different, as opposed to using this time to make this a friendly environment for development?"

 

 


Firstly, I don’t want a tax increase.

 

But I love that quote Playhouse Square CEO “How can we not waste this time wishing for it to be different, as opposed to using this time to make this a friendly environment for development?“ .......

 

Is that a hint at a new building?  Lumen Act II maybe??

  • 2 weeks later...
15 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Hi All - 

 

And I apologize to the mods if this is the wrong thread - but my wife and I are currently trying to sell our condo, but will likely end up renting it, come November 1. If you or anyone you know is interested, please feel free to share this link or reach out to me directly. Thanks! 

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2222-Detroit-Ave-Apt-903_Cleveland_OH_44113_M46026-70928 

Not sure about the right thread or not (I'll let the other Admins and Mods weigh in), and although decor is subjective - I have some suggestions about the listing photos (like my people usually do 🌈 )

12 minutes ago, MayDay said:

Not sure about the right thread or not (I'll let the other Admins and Mods weigh in), and although decor is subjective - I have some suggestions about the listing photos (like my people usually do 🌈 )

 

Haha thanks @MayDay the decor belonged to our last tenants lol 

Edited by YABO713

 

57 minutes ago, YABO713 said:

Hi All - 

 

And I apologize to the mods if this is the wrong thread - but my wife and I are currently trying to sell our condo, but will likely end up renting it, come November 1. If you or anyone you know is interested, please feel free to share this link or reach out to me directly. Thanks! 

 

https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2222-Detroit-Ave-Apt-903_Cleveland_OH_44113_M46026-70928 

Wait wait wait - one can purchase an 1100 sq ft 2 bed / 2 bath on the ninth floor of Stonebridge for $150K?  The mortgage would be less than half the rent payment of a similar unit in the new buildings along Detroit.  (I understand coming up w a down payment can be challenging for many people, but still, that is a huge disparity.)  Am I missing something? 

 

No wonder we don't see new construction condos downtown.  Must be hard to make the math work.

 

 @YABO713 I'll send this over to my friends at BoxCast and see if anyone wants a ridiculously short commute. Good luck selling / renting!

When is the last time I-71 turned a profit?

1 minute ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

Wait wait wait - one can purchase an 1100 sq ft 2 bed / 2 bath on the ninth floor of Stonebridge for $150K?  The mortgage would be less than half the rent payment of a similar unit in the new buildings along Detroit.  (I understand coming up w a down payment can be challenging for many people, but still, that is a huge disparity.)  Am I missing something? 

 

No wonder we don't see new construction condos downtown.  Must be hard to make the math work.

 

 @YABO713 I'll send this over to my friends at BoxCast and see if anyone wants a ridiculously short commute. Good luck selling / renting!


thanks @Boomerang_Brian - yeah we’re actually considering selling the parking space as well, which would lower the asking price to around $139

@YABO713I thought you lived on W. 50!  From the link you sent I noticed:  "Year Built:  2005" ....so 15-year tax abatement is running out...time to sell!

Just now, Pugu said:

@YABO713I thought you lived on W. 50!  From the link you sent I noticed:  "Year Built:  2005" ....so 15-year tax abatement is running out...time to sell!


We do! This was my wife’s condo before we got married, and we rented it the last two years.

^Makes sense! Though unless you need the cash, I'd keep it and just collect the rent $. Then again, with covid, perhaps, people can't pay the rent and you're better off sitting on the cash.  If I think of anyone looking to buy a place around there--I'll send them your link.

1 minute ago, Pugu said:

^Makes sense! Though unless you need the cash, I'd keep it and just collect the rent $. Then again, with covid, perhaps, people can't pay the rent and you're better off sitting on the cash.  If I think of anyone looking to buy a place around there--I'll send them your link.


Thanks I appreciate it! We’re looking to pull cash for another venture we’d like to start. 

 

1 hour ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

Wait wait wait - one can purchase an 1100 sq ft 2 bed / 2 bath on the ninth floor of Stonebridge for $150K?  The mortgage would be less than half the rent payment of a similar unit in the new buildings along Detroit.  (I understand coming up w a down payment can be challenging for many people, but still, that is a huge disparity.)  Am I missing something? 

 

No wonder we don't see new construction condos downtown.  Must be hard to make the math work.

 

 @YABO713 I'll send this over to my friends at BoxCast and see if anyone wants a ridiculously short commute. Good luck selling / renting!

 I agree completely.  I don't get why the condo market is so poor.

  • Author
2 hours ago, Boomerang_Brian said:

 

Wait wait wait - one can purchase an 1100 sq ft 2 bed / 2 bath on the ninth floor of Stonebridge for $150K?  The mortgage would be less than half the rent payment of a similar unit in the new buildings along Detroit.  (I understand coming up w a down payment can be challenging for many people, but still, that is a huge disparity.)  Am I missing something? 

 

No wonder we don't see new construction condos downtown.  Must be hard to make the math work.

 

 @YABO713 I'll send this over to my friends at BoxCast and see if anyone wants a ridiculously short commute. Good luck selling / renting!

 

My wife and I looked at a couple of condos in Stonebridge and weren't happy with what we saw. The location was amazing as were the views but the quality of construction was poor, the units felt very small even though they were over 1,100 square feet and there were few windows except in the living rooms.

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

3 hours ago, YABO713 said:

 

Haha thanks @MayDay the decor belonged to our last tenants lol 

 

Damn, I was betting I'd see a lifesize poster of DANNY FERRY.

 

Am now disappointed. 

9 hours ago, surfohio said:

 

Damn, I was betting I'd see a lifesize poster of DANNY FERRY.

 

Am now disappointed. 

 

Few current/former Cavs live in the building, if that's any consolation

  • 3 weeks later...

For those worried abut downtown being over saturated this should be encouraging.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/pandemic-recession-arent-deterring-northeast-ohio-apartment-developers

 

All the developers of next-wave projects pooh-pooh the impact of downtown's 16% vacancy rate. They are confident that projects including Lumen, the May and others should be leased up by the time newer projects open in 2021 or 2022.

 

 

  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
  • Author

Gorgeous! 

 

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

  • 4 weeks later...

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/cleveland-apartment-owners-see-brighter-days-ahead

 

The line that really caught my eye in this article. From Michael Sabracos, US CEO of Alto Partners, the developers of Euclid Grand - "We're getting tenants from other buildings downtown, and the staff is saying something like one in five prospects is someone from Chicago or New York who wants to come home to Cleveland and pay less rent, if only for a short time,"

  • 2 months later...
  • Author

Thought this was interesting data....

 

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

^Based on that, some quick math:

 

DT.png.b23e20ca8da0d7f6f07b16be894b7d3f.png

 

 

Anyone know the number of condos and non-market-rate units?  There aren't many condo bldgs--the Pinnacle, @YABO713's if that's counted as Downtown-not sure as its across the river, there's a bldg on prospect west of E. 9..... for non-market rate, the Bohn Tower and some other bldgs on E. 13 (former Allerton Hotel)....

 

I'll update the table above if anyone has better estimates or actual data.

 

6 hours ago, Pugu said:

 

Anyone know the number of condos and non-market-rate units?  There aren't many condo bldgs--the Pinnacle, @YABO713's if that's counted as Downtown-not sure as its across the river, there's a bldg on prospect west of E. 9..... for non-market rate, the Bohn Tower and some other bldgs on E. 13 (former Allerton Hotel)....

 

I'll update the table above if anyone has better estimates or actual data.

 

 

Not sure of the numbers, but in addition to the ones you mentioned, there are quite a few condo buildings in the Warehouse District (Water Street Condos, a building (or two?) on St Clair, and one or two small buildings on W9), townhouses in the Avenue District, as well as the building on Public Square. If Flats West Bank is included then there are the two buildings in Stonebridge which are condo.

9 hours ago, Pugu said:

^Based on that, some quick math:

 

DT.png.b23e20ca8da0d7f6f07b16be894b7d3f.png

 

 

Anyone know the number of condos and non-market-rate units?  There aren't many condo bldgs--the Pinnacle, @YABO713's if that's counted as Downtown-not sure as its across the river, there's a bldg on prospect west of E. 9..... for non-market rate, the Bohn Tower and some other bldgs on E. 13 (former Allerton Hotel)....

 

I'll update the table above if anyone has better estimates or actual data.

 

http://www.downtowncleveland.com/DCA/media/DCA_Media/2018-DCA-Annual-Report.pdf

 

Last I can find it from is the 2018 annual report where they said there was 880 condo/townhomes downtown.

@cle_guy90^Thanks. Will update the table in a bit and will split out condos and townhomes. So maybe 780 condos and 100 townhomes?

  • 4 weeks later...

Anyone know what’s going on with the WT Grant lofts on Euclid? The front entrance is entirely boarded up. It’s only just been renovated, so I can’t imagine it’s more reno work. 

My hovercraft is full of eels

  • Author
On 4/24/2021 at 4:31 PM, roman totale XVII said:

Anyone know what’s going on with the WT Grant lofts on Euclid? The front entrance is entirely boarded up. It’s only just been renovated, so I can’t imagine it’s more reno work. 

 

I see these entries at Building & Housing over the past year (note also the paper change in ownerships).....

 

07/07/2020 SIGN
INSTALL ONE 64 SF ONE 54.37 SF ILLUMINATED PROJECTING SIGNS AND ONE 1.56SF NON-ILLUMINATED WALL SIGN AS PER PLAN AND CPC APPROVAL. SEPARTE ELECTRICAL PERMIT IS REQ'D. ( 2 ELECTRICAL SIGNS )

Owner:

WT GRANT APARTMENTS LLC

3401 ENTERPRISE PARKWAY

CLEVELAND OH 44122

 

07/30/2020 Elevator Violation

Record Status: Closed

 

07/30/2020 Elevator Violation

Record Status: Open

 

12/21/2020  Com Electrical

72,000 SQ FT - REPLACE FIXTURES, SWITCHES AND PLUGS. BUILDING PERMIT NO. B20001819. WT GRANT LOFTS

Record Status: Closed

Owner:

JA FRIEDMAN CAPITAL

3401 ENTERPRISE PKWY

BEACHWOOD OH 44122

 

01/27/2021 Com Plumbing

INSTALL 39 WATER CLOSET/TOILETS, 39 BATH TUB OR SHOWERS, 39 LAVATORY SINKS, 39 KITCHEN SINKS BUILDING PERMIT NO. B20001819

Record Status: Closed

Owner:

JA FRIEDMAN CAPITAL

3401 ENTERPRISE PKWY

BEACHWOOD OH 44122

 

03/10/2021 BH Complaint

Record Status: Closed

COMPLAINT INFO

Type of Complaint: Fire Damage

Descriptive nature of complaint: PROPERTY NEEDS TO BE INSPECTED FOR FIRE DAMAGE.

Source: Internal

Priority: Routine

Owner:

INTERWEST WT PARTNERS LLC & AJAPPJR, LLC

3401 ENTERPRISE PKWY

BEACHWOOD OH 44122

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

  • 3 weeks later...
  • Author

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

  • 2 months later...
  • Author

Here's a good "living trends" article focusing on downtown and nearby...

 

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

  • 4 weeks later...

 

  • 1 month later...
  • Author

 

"In the souls of the people the grapes of wrath are filling and growing heavy, growing heavy for the vintage." -- John Steinbeck

Well Sam...If you did any sort of investigative journalism whatsoever, you would maybe pull the population figures from the recent census. I don't know what the exact numbers were, but anyone who tried .0004% harder than Sam would venture to look there. Someone correct me if neighborhood level is not out yet?

 

 

24 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

I suspect that DCA may be using a larger geography than they are admitting to.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are counting West Bank of Flats too. Although, that probably wouldn't account for 8,000 people. 

16 minutes ago, freefourur said:

I suspect that DCA may be using a larger geography than they are admitting to.  I wouldn't be surprised if they are counting West Bank of Flats too. Although, that probably wouldn't account for 8,000 people. 

Do these statistics count Cleveland State University dorm/student residents as well?  CSU falls within the downtown district. 

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