59 minutes ago, YO to the CLE said:

Well Sam...If you did any sort of investigative journalism whatsoever, you would maybe pull the population figures from the recent census. I don't know what the exact numbers were, but anyone who tried .0004% harder than Sam would venture to look there. Someone correct me if neighborhood level is not out yet?

 

 

The 2020 census doesn't have downtown even close to 20,000 people, so Ballard's point still remains

32 minutes ago, AsDustinFoxWouldSay said:

The 2020 census doesn't have downtown even close to 20,000 people, so Ballard's point still remains

It would make his point stronger if he referenced the Census though. 

I could see them also counting residents who have a place downtown but whose permanent address is somewhere else.  Regardless we know with all the new apartments that are being filled downtown's population is growing albeit not as rapidly as before.

Census numbers are going to represent April 2020- when pandemic fear was at its peak and downtown housing around the country its nadir.  The DCA numbers are going to represent whatever slice in time they wanted to capture, which almost certainly wasn't then.  Also worth noting that the census, as a count, not an estimate, is almost by definition an undercount.  Unless the census is performed perfectly, it only misses people, never adds them.  It is especially bad at counting minorities, and people living in apartments.

Could there be a significant number of Air B & B rentals downtown?  If apartments are then leased but not actually occupied by the renter it might explain some difference but not 6000 units. 
 

 

There’s a lot of people who live downtown, especially in the higher-end places, who are not OH residents. 

For anyone who's curious about the 20,000 number and where it comes from. Four census tracts: 1071.01, 1077.01, and 1078.02 which are the normal downtown boundary most people think of, AND 1033 which is the west bank of the flats. 2020 census estimated 16,098 people in these tracts.

 

The part that I missed at first in the explanation is that the 20,000 figure also includes areas east of the innerbelt up to E 30th (thanks random Twitter user I talked with a month ago). See the pink dotted border:

DCA's housing demand study that created the 20k figure estimated that by 2021, the four census tracts (shaded purple in the map) would have a population of 16,409. With 16,098 in April 2020, it's pretty reasonable to assume we met 16,409 in 2021. The missing population is in the non-shaded section of the map that DCA estimated would have a pop of 3,604 in 2021. Combined, that'd be 20,013 people in the 4 census tracts and a sliver of more land which seems pretty accurate. No fudged numbers, just a fudged definition of what counts as Downtown.

 

Seeing as DCA estimates that almost 750 more units were occupied in Q2 2021 compared to Q2 2020, we're more than on track to reach 30,000 by 2030 (within DCA's "Traditional Boundary").

Edited September 20, 20213 yr by tykaps

 

Data shows downtown residential is hot

By Ken Prendergast / September 21, 2021

 

If you spend too much time on social media, you might encounter a few folks who are under the false impression that parts of downtown Cleveland burned to the ground during the nationwide racial unrest last year. But while downtown’s commercial market is still recovering from the ongoing pandemic, the residential market is hot. You might even say it’s on fire.

 

Three data sets confirm this. One is downtown’s population, which is now above 20,000 people using the only resource that matters — the U.S. Census. Another is a recent CoStar report that says downtown apartment demand is on pace for a record-breaking year. The third data set comes from a unique source.

 

MORE:

https://neo-trans.blog/2021/09/21/data-shows-downtown-residential-is-hot/

 

 

Thanks as always to @tykapsfor his excellent contributions! 

KJP,

As always, great article. Thanks for finding and boiling down the info for us.

 

A couple of thoughts occurred to me while reading the article: 

• I forget exactly when the Bridgeview and Bingham were completed, but the tax abatement for those properties should have run out by now. The Archer's tax abatement has run out. Those are some high value properties to add to the tax roll. 
• There are several apartment buildings between the Inner Belt and E.30th-ish between Superior and Carnegie. While they are not huge buildings, they also aren't small. Those also appear to have been left out of the downtown numbers. 
• Re SF prices--I was surprised that Church & State and Quarter are so close to The Beacon. I probably shouldn't be surprised, but I thought that they would cost less given that they are not downtown. silly me. 
• A couple of the new projects that are scheduled to come on line in the coming years (Centennial and Bridgeworks) will be aimed at a different market sector and therefore not compete as much with the other new buildings scheduled to come on line.  

 

On a related note:

Crittenden Court apartments sold for $19.75 million

 

Snavely Group, the Chagrin Falls-based real estate developer with a big portfolio of projects throughout the region, has taken a big step into the downtown Cleveland apartment market by buying, through an affiliate, Crittenden Court, the 17-story apartment building at 955 W. St. Clair Ave.

 

Most recently, Snavely has been known as the developer of The Quarter, the apartment, retail and office project at West 25th Street and Detroit Avenue in Ohio City. The project transformed the intersection on the west end of the Detroit-Superior Bridge, which connects downtown and the near West Side.

 

The $19.75 million purchase of Crittenden through 955 St. Clair LLC not only gives the developer control of the 208-suite building, but positions it for a potential future development nearby, atop the multilevel parking garage that serves the apartment building.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/crittenden-court-apartments-sold-1975-million

^ That’s great to see. The Crittenden is getting a little tired inside, so wonderful to see the investment of a “substantial renovation”. Some of the units looking out west have outstanding views of the river and the flats. I’ve not been in units looking in other directions, but they probably have great views too. 
The possible development on the parking lot is very intriguing. 

57 minutes ago, KJP said:

 

Data shows downtown residential is hot

By Ken Prendergast / September 21, 2021

 

If you spend too much time on social media, you might encounter a few folks who are under the false impression that parts of downtown Cleveland burned to the ground during the nationwide racial unrest last year. But while downtown’s commercial market is still recovering from the ongoing pandemic, the residential market is hot. You might even say it’s on fire.

 

Three data sets confirm this. One is downtown’s population, which is now above 20,000 people using the only resource that matters — the U.S. Census. Another is a recent CoStar report that says downtown apartment demand is on pace for a record-breaking year. The third data set comes from a unique source.

 

MORE:

https://neo-trans.blog/2021/09/21/data-shows-downtown-residential-is-hot/

 

 

Thanks as always to @tykapsfor his excellent contributions! 

I'm surprised Beacon is still leasing up honestly.  Church and State opened after Beacon and is leased up.  

On 9/20/2021 at 1:14 AM, tykaps said:

For anyone who's curious about the 20,000 number and where it comes from. Four census tracts: 1071.01, 1077.01, and 1078.02 which are the normal downtown boundary most people think of, AND 1033 which is the west bank of the flats. 2020 census estimated 16,098 people in these tracts.

 

The part that I missed at first in the explanation is that the 20,000 figure also includes areas east of the innerbelt up to E 30th (thanks random Twitter user I talked with a month ago). See the pink dotted border:

DCA's housing demand study that created the 20k figure estimated that by 2021, the four census tracts (shaded purple in the map) would have a population of 16,409. With 16,098 in April 2020, it's pretty reasonable to assume we met 16,409 in 2021. The missing population is in the non-shaded section of the map that DCA estimated would have a pop of 3,604 in 2021. Combined, that'd be 20,013 people in the 4 census tracts and a sliver of more land which seems pretty accurate. No fudged numbers, just a fudged definition of what counts as Downtown.

 

Seeing as DCA estimates that almost 750 more units were occupied in Q2 2021 compared to Q2 2020, we're more than on track to reach 30,000 by 2030 (within DCA's "Traditional Boundary").

This is some really good work. You and @KJP may want to consider sending an email to Sam Allard (See https://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2021/09/17/umm-whats-going-on-with-these-wildly-inconsistent-downtown-cleveland-population-numbers)

 

(As an aside, I've written to Sam about glaring errors in some of his articles in the past but have never heard back...)

Edited September 21, 20213 yr by LlamaLawyer

1 hour ago, freefourur said:

I'm surprised Beacon is still leasing up honestly.  Church and State opened after Beacon and is leased up.  

It's 94.1% leased, so I would say "leasing up" is more a description of time since construction than of the actual reality.

6 minutes ago, LlamaLawyer said:

This is some really good work. You and @KJP may want to consider sending an email to Sam Allard (See https://www.clevescene.com/scene-and-heard/archives/2021/09/17/umm-whats-going-on-with-these-wildly-inconsistent-downtown-cleveland-population-numbers)

 

(As an aside, I've written to Sam about glaring errors in some of his articles in the past but have never heard back...)

 

I tweeted my latest article and tagged Sam and his editor Vince Grzegorek.

 

I hope they enjoyed the article, as well as the one I wrote last Friday about the huge Gateway parking garage possibly getting redeveloped across Bolivar from their offices.

Does anyone have a grasp how many parcels are in the downtown census tracts?

On 9/21/2021 at 4:52 PM, KJP said:

 

I tweeted my latest article and tagged Sam and his editor Vince Grzegorek.

 

I hope they enjoyed the article, as well as the one I wrote last Friday about the huge Gateway parking garage possibly getting redeveloped across Bolivar from their offices.

Did you hear anything back?

4 hours ago, inlovewithCLE said:

Did you hear anything back?

 

No. 

Apartment Demand in Cleveland Sets New Record

New Units Occupied Are Concentrated in Downtown and University Circle

https://product.costar.com/home/news/shared/146423418

 

Redirect from the Intro thread....

 

1 hour ago, KFM44107 said:

I can't understand how someone hasn't put together a 20-40 unit condo low-rise yet. Like five or six stories seems doable. 

 

50 minutes ago, ML11 said:

With so many empty-nester baby boomers buying vertical townhomes in Cleveland in recent years, surely there is a market for single-story for sale units?   

 

I think it would be very interesting if a group of about 20 people formed a joint venture by buying one share in the JV for the equivalent value of a 20 percent down payment for purchasing a market-rate condo. They would also have to show documented mortgage preapproval to be included in the JV. Their down payment would stay in an interest-bearing escrow account. Then the JV issues an RFQ to solicit a qualified developer to build for them a 40-unit condo building with the understanding that the JV assumes the risk of construction deficiencies since the JV is the one who chose the developer. The JV then assumes the role of condo association upon completion of the building. This arrangement would address two barriers to condo development -- the 50% presale requirement and a developer's fear that they will be sued by the condo association for any faulty construction. 

 

For me to think of this, there must be something wrong with/unworkable about it! So what is it?

49 minutes ago, KJP said:

Redirect from the Intro thread....

 

 

 

I think it would be very interesting if a group of about 20 people formed a joint venture by buying one share in the JV for the equivalent value of a 20 percent down payment for purchasing a market-rate condo. They would also have to show documented mortgage preapproval to be included in the JV. Their down payment would stay in an interest-bearing escrow account. Then the JV issues an RFQ to solicit a qualified developer to build for them a 40-unit condo building with the understanding that the JV assumes the risk of construction deficiencies since the JV is the one who chose the developer. The JV then assumes the role of condo association upon completion of the building. This arrangement would address two barriers to condo development -- the 50% presale requirement and a developer's fear that they will be sued by the condo association for any faulty construction. 

 

For me to think of this, there must be something wrong with/unworkable about it! So what is it?

I like the idea it just seems like it doesn't really solve the problem. If a homeowner can form a JV with 19 other folks who want the same kind of condo, then why can't the developer find those people instead? It seems like the problem is getting 20 people committed to buying a home they can't see and that won't be built for two years and that problem is present no matter who is soliciting them.

 

As far as holding the construction company harmless, that could negatively impact the homeowner's ability to get insurance and therefore financing.

^^Sounds like something that DCA could try to foster. They could send out emails/etc. to find people who are interested in buying a condo. If there's interest, then they could take it from there. DCA could be the matchmaker that puts interested buys in touch with interested developers. Ken, very interesting concept..

UO WHALE FOR SALE JV LLC, anyone?

Downtown Continues To Drive Apartment Development in Cleveland

The Area Represents Over Half of All Units Underway in the Market

https://product.costar.com/home/news/shared/258444404?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=personalized&utm_content=p4&t=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJjb250YWN0SWQiOiI2ODc3Mjc4IiwiY3VsdHVyZUNvZGUiOiJlbi1VUyIsImlhdCI6MTY0NzI2MDYzMX0.GCyphpzIl1FIglf_66MTFybFlhicNb1WzkwktlJ7U64

More of a quick summary of some projects downtown, but I found the following quote interesting. 

 

Quote

“We have the largest residential downtown in the state of Ohio,” says Deemer. “It’s the fastest-growing neighborhood in the Northeast Ohio region, and it’s become an increasingly important part of the downtown economy.”

 

https://clevelandmagazine.com/in-the-cle/news/articles/how-developers-are-turning-office-space-into-cleveland's-next-batch-of-housing

3 hours ago, Luke_S said:

More of a quick summary of some projects downtown, but I found the following quote interesting. 

 

 

https://clevelandmagazine.com/in-the-cle/news/articles/how-developers-are-turning-office-space-into-cleveland's-next-batch-of-housing

 

Wow, 600 units currently under construction with 3,000 more "planned." Anyone know how many additional residents that might be? Like could we possibly reach 30k sooner than later? 

16 minutes ago, surfohio said:

 

Wow, 600 units currently under construction with 3,000 more "planned." Anyone know how many additional residents that might be? Like could we possibly reach 30k sooner than later? 

 

 

that makes me almost glad for the pandemic as we don't have to grind teeth over 'x amount of residents needed downtown to support retail' since nobody knows what the heck retail even is anymore.

 

that was all before times chatter.

 

just keep roping them in around downtown and see what happens with commercial amenities because that will also continue to be a new world ... except pull for a city target tho. 😂

12 minutes ago, surfohio said:

 

Wow, 600 units currently under construction with 3,000 more "planned." Anyone know how many additional residents that might be? Like could we possibly reach 30k sooner than later? 

Add to that another 3000 or so under construction/planned and will happen/proposed and may or may not happen in Ohio City, University Circle, Tremont and Detroit Shoreway which competes for the same demographic as downtown more or less.  Then another 1500 or more in inner ring suburbs like Cleveland Hts, Lakewood, Shaker Hts and University Hts which also compete for that demographic, although to a lesser extent.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the near future and whether we will be seeing fewer proposals in a couple of years.  It could be that some of those projects late to the game (can you say Lakefront) could end up scraping the bottom of the barrel or poaching from other older downtown buildings which would not be good for anyone.

15 minutes ago, Htsguy said:

Add to that another 3000 or so under construction/planned and will happen/proposed and may or may not happen in Ohio City, University Circle, Tremont and Detroit Shoreway which competes for the same demographic as downtown more or less.  Then another 1500 or more in inner ring suburbs like Cleveland Hts, Lakewood, Shaker Hts and University Hts which also compete for that demographic, although to a lesser extent.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the near future and whether we will be seeing fewer proposals in a couple of years.  It could be that some of those projects late to the game (can you say Lakefront) could end up scraping the bottom of the barrel or poaching from other older downtown buildings which would not be good for anyone.

 

Disagree that it wouldn't be good for anyone.  If you build more units than can be rented at $1000-1500/month, then the older downtown units will come down some in price and lots of younger folks who would love to live downtown but can't afford those rents will get the chance.

9 hours ago, Htsguy said:

(Snip) It will be interesting to see how things shake out in the near future and whether we will be seeing fewer proposals in a couple of years.  It could be that some of those projects late to the game (can you say Lakefront) could end up scraping the bottom of the barrel or poaching from other older downtown buildings (snip)

Haven't we been having this exact question for the last decade? The Lumen AND the Beacon AND the May Co? How can downtown absorb all those apartments without rent crashing and older buildings emptying out?!?

40 minutes ago, originaljbw said:

Haven't we been having this exact question for the last decade? The Lumen AND the Beacon AND the May Co? How can downtown absorb all those apartments without rent crashing and older buildings emptying out?!?

Especially considering that the next largest project (Centennial) is catering to an entire different socio economic class then any of these other proposals and that is by far the biggest project in terms of sheer unit numbers. I think we will be okay for the next five years atleast. 

It is so shocking that we might be able to GROW our population?

19 hours ago, Htsguy said:

Add to that another 3000 or so under construction/planned and will happen/proposed and may or may not happen in Ohio City, University Circle, Tremont and Detroit Shoreway which competes for the same demographic as downtown more or less.

 

My concern is that not enough housing is getting built in the areas you've mentioned. Keep in mind, everything going up today is merely making up for decades of losses. Downtown and the core neighborhoods will need tens of thousands of new units between now and 2040 to meet demand.

Edited March 23, 20223 yr by Clefan98

1 hour ago, mack34 said:

It is so shocking that we might be able to GROW our population?

Definitely something I would like to see but no clear evidence of that as of yet.  The next five years or so will be telling.  The fact that a city like Shaker Hts., after five decades of slow population decline, increased its population by 3.5% per the last census is a good sign.

Quote

DCA has launched a strategic planning process to guide the organization’s work over the next five years as it leads Downtown’s long-term recovery. Working with Denver-based real estate economists and place management specialists, Progressive Urban Management Associates (PUMA), DCA is soliciting community input for the plan and invites all to complete the survey here through April 30.  

https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/DCAStrategicPlan

whats the latest estimated % of downtown residents vs the city population as a whole?

 

The question that I have (in the Crains article) is even with growth, why does Cleveland always seem to fall behind the state average and the national average.  I would be more impressed with the article if Cleveland was leading the region or state, or at the national average, but it is lagging behind.  

1 hour ago, newyorker said:

The question that I have (in the Crains article) is even with growth, why does Cleveland always seem to fall behind the state average and the national average.  I would be more impressed with the article if Cleveland was leading the region or state, or at the national average, but it is lagging behind.  

 

The number of people (families) leaving Cleveland is larger than the number of people (single/childless couples) moving in. More housing units are being occupied however. 

KJP - I was referring to this statement.

 

Even with apartments rising at what seems a breakneck pace for Northeast Ohio, Yardi Matrix reports construction at less than 4% of total inventory downtown and below 2% of the region's inventory. So, the amount of development in the region remains extremely low compared with most of the country.

 

That's why the mantra for Michael Deemer, president and CEO of the Downtown Cleveland Alliance, remains to keep building residentially downtown.

 

15 hours ago, KJP said:

 

The number of people (families) leaving Cleveland is larger than the number of people (single/childless couples) moving in. More housing units are being occupied however. 

That is a bit surprising. I thought the exodus from Cleveland had slowed down to a trickle, but apparently not. 

23 hours ago, LibertyBlvd said:

That is a bit surprising. I thought the exodus from Cleveland had slowed down to a trickle, but apparently not. 

 

It has. My point is that the influx of middle- to upper-income singles and childless couples is being more than offset by the departure of lower-income families. When we stop losing families and if we can continue the influx of singles/couples (or increase their inflow), the population will rise.

MRN plans first new downtown Cleveland condos in more than a decade

 

Quote

MRN Ltd. is preparing to convert two lofty office floors at 629 Euclid Ave., a mixed-use property near East Fourth Street, into for-sale housing.

 

At 14 units, the development is modest in size. But it could serve as a proving ground for a product that's scarce in the central business district.

 

https://www.crainscleveland.com/real-estate/mrn-plans-first-new-downtown-cleveland-condos-more-decade?utm_medium=social&utm_source=linkedin&utm_term=crain's+cleveland+business&utm_content=5df48f73-42b9-4bae-9351-d3afb91cb94c

I hope Cleveland can take a page out of Milwaukee's residential boom. This rendering is awesome.

http://www.thecouturemilwaukee.com/

10 minutes ago, bwheats said:

I hope Cleveland can take a page out of Milwaukee's residential boom. This rendering is awesome.

http://www.thecouturemilwaukee.com/

 

Maybe the bldg is nice, but it looks very remote and empty around it.

 

"This 44-story skyscraper has been designed from the ground up to serve as a key thoroughfare connecting our lakefront and cultural amenities with our downtown. The project includes public plazas and parks, pedestrian bridges and a new lakefront stop for the proposed streetcar."

 

Is Milwaukee's Downtown not on the lakefront? Or is it like Cleveland--where it is on the lakefront but there are many issues getting to it!?

1 hour ago, bwheats said:

I hope Cleveland can take a page out of Milwaukee's residential boom. This rendering is awesome.

http://www.thecouturemilwaukee.com/

 

eh, I think that's awful- incredibly sterile ground level, skybridges in all directions to take life off the street.  Hard pass.

6 hours ago, bwheats said:

I hope Cleveland can take a page out of Milwaukee's residential boom. This rendering is awesome.

http://www.thecouturemilwaukee.com/

 

6 hours ago, jcw92 said:

 

Maybe the bldg is nice, but it looks very remote and empty around it.

 

"This 44-story skyscraper has been designed from the ground up to serve as a key thoroughfare connecting our lakefront and cultural amenities with our downtown. The project includes public plazas and parks, pedestrian bridges and a new lakefront stop for the proposed streetcar."

 

Is Milwaukee's Downtown not on the lakefront? Or is it like Cleveland--where it is on the lakefront but there are many issues getting to it!?

 

5 hours ago, X said:

 

eh, I think that's awful- incredibly sterile ground level, skybridges in all directions to take life off the street.  Hard pass.

Yeah, that render doesn’t do it justice. The building will literally have the streetcar running through it at ground level with extensive retail and public use. It will be fantastic. My only concern is that I didn’t see much progress between last summer and this summer. I discussed it in the Milwaukee thread. 

 

On 9/20/2022 at 9:58 AM, bwheats said:

I hope Cleveland can take a page out of Milwaukee's residential boom. This rendering is awesome.

http://www.thecouturemilwaukee.com/

 

On 9/20/2022 at 10:11 AM, jcw92 said:

 

Maybe the bldg is nice, but it looks very remote and empty around it.

 

"This 44-story skyscraper has been designed from the ground up to serve as a key thoroughfare connecting our lakefront and cultural amenities with our downtown. The project includes public plazas and parks, pedestrian bridges and a new lakefront stop for the proposed streetcar."

 

Is Milwaukee's Downtown not on the lakefront? Or is it like Cleveland--where it is on the lakefront but there are many issues getting to it!?

I think not as many people check the out-of-state development threads, so for the people who brought up this project here’s my recent picture update of Milwaukee’s Couture, a high rise mixed-use development on a streetcar station base. 

 

Massive fire at Bridgeview Apartments

 

https://www.cleveland19.com/2022/11/08/cleveland-firefighters-battle-building-fire-downtown/

Downtown Cleveland housing survey: