Maybe this will hasten the development of new large hotel, which is what we really need.

^ ^Well, this will further distance us from future NCAA events.

 

I'm wondering if there's any chance they can improve their horrible street presence along Superior.

I could care less about NCAA events.  The fact that it is putting more residences on the market is net positive, even if it is coming out of existing hotel space.  97% occupancy vs 68% occupancy, 'nuff said.

I could care less about NCAA events.  The fact that it is putting more residences on the market is net positive, even if it is coming out of existing hotel space.  97% occupancy vs 68% occupancy, 'nuff said.

 

I agree with you, at least when you look at the numbers. But aren't hotels rarely statically higher occupancy than apartment occupancy year to year? I'm just asking, I'm not too knowledgable in the economics. I just hope and pray that some of these new hotels that have been proposed can come online sooner rather than later.

Yes, but that is sort of my point.  68% occupancy is good for a hotel, but still on average, one third of the units are vacant, and often more than that.  97% occupied apartments are more stable, businesses can count on residents being there Monday night, in Winter.

Im in the process of making a map of all Downtown Residencies. Here is what I have so far.

 

Zooming in makes it better and you can click on a building to see how many units it has.

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

Also map is same key as my other map posted in the Cleveland Random Development thread.

 

Blue is the extent of the Ameritrust Complex

Red is Section 8

Green are other current/underway/kindofhappening projects with possible residential aspects.

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow are current residential buildings.[/glow]

 

I have just updated this map. I added a new category.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow - Current Apartments/Condos

[/glow]Orange - Underway/Final Planning stages

Green - Planned Conversions

Purple - Dorms

Red - Public Housing

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

^Cool...Thanks!

Very cool CO.

 

And I'll update my list as well.  From these projects, there will be 700 - 900+ new residential units Downtown by the end of 2013.

 

DOWNTOWN CLEVELAND NEW RESIDENTIAL

 

New apartment units 2012: (147 total units)

Avenue District Luxury Apartments (59 apartments) http://www.zaremba.net/community/index.php?cid=2667

The Langston Apartments -- Building 1 (48 apartments) http://campusdistrictobserver.com/read/2012/09/05/the-langston-welcomes-first-tenants-near-csu

 

Under Construction: (447 total units)

The Langston Apartments -- remaining (260 apartments) -- $45 million http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/06/new_neighborhood_to_rise_on_cl.html

Rosetta Center Building (85 apartments) -- $7 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/06/cleveland_developers_win_prese.html

Hanna Annex Apartments (102 apartments) -- $23 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/12/playhousesquare_to_sell_downto.html

 

In the pipeline: (378 total units)

Embassy Suites hotel into residential @ Reserve Square (232 apartments) -- $3 million www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/10/kd_group_will_close_embassy_su.html

1120 Chester Ave (36 apartments) http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/bza/agenda/2012/crr04-30-2012.pdf

Truman Building at 1030 Euclid (26 apartments) -- $9 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/06/cleveland_developers_win_prese.html

The Park Building and Southworth Building apartments (34 apartments) -- $21 million http://development.ohio.gov/Urban/OHPTC/documents/Round7ApprovedApplications.pdf

Schofield Building (50 apartments) -- $40 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/06/four_northeast_ohio_projects_i.html

 

Planning Stages: (375 total units)

Flats East Bank Phase II Residential (140 apartments  -- $120 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/04/flats_east_bank_project_lines.html

East Ohio Building at 1717 East Ninth St (223 apartments) http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/03/kd_group_plans_to_buy_redevelo.html

1224 Huron Rd (12 apartments) http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/09/kd_group_closes_hanna_building.html

 

Proposed:

Warehouse District mixed-used Transit Hub  http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/11/post_536.html

Halle Building at 1228 Euclid Ave (200 apartments) http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20120716/SUB1/307169992

Arcade (100 apartments) http://crainscleveland.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=TOC

Baker Building at 1940 E 6th Street

 

When pigs fly:

515 Euclid Ave (240 units) http://www.desman.com/hotproperty/task,view/id,59/Itemid,168/

Huntington Bank Building at 917 Euclid Ave http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/11/huntington_moving_to_200_publi.html

Standard Building at 1370 Ontario St http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/01/railroad_union_nhttp://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/Themes/default/images/bbc/glow.gifations_oldest.html

Lakefront Residential http://blog.cleveland.com/architecture/2011/11/new_lakefront_plan_from_clevel.html

Playhouse Square parking lot across from Palace Theater http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/12/playhousesquare_to_sell_downto.html

Im in the process of making a map of all Downtown Residencies. Here is what I have so far.

 

Zooming in makes it better and you can click on a building to see how many units it has.

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

Also map is same key as my other map posted in the Cleveland Random Development thread.

 

Blue is the extent of the Ameritrust Complex

Red is Section 8

Green are other current/underway/kindofhappening projects with possible residential aspects.

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow are current residential buildings.[/glow]

 

I have just updated this map. I added a new category.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow - Current Apartments/Condos

[/glow]Orange - Underway/Final Planning stages

Green - Planned Conversions

Purple - Dorms

Red - Public Housing

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

 

Great map!

I just noticed that you have Heritage Hall in yellow at Superior and 22-- this is actually a csu dorm as well.

 

Csu dorms:

Euclid commons

Fenn tower

Heritage hall

K&D Group will close Embassy Suites hotel in downtown Cleveland, convert it to apartments

Published: Wednesday, October 10, 2012, 5:00 PM    Updated: Wednesday, October 10, 2012, 5:03 PM

By Michelle Jarboe McFee, The Plain Dealer

 

CLEVELAND, Ohio -- The K&D Group Inc. will close downtown Cleveland's Embassy Suites hotel in December and return the building to its original use -- apartments. The transformation also will cost 100 people their jobs.

 

Tucked into K&D's massive Reserve Square apartment complex on East 12th Street, the Embassy Suites is one of downtown's better-performing hotels, experts say. Yet the 252-suite property slid into foreclosure in November, thanks to a heavy debt load, high operating costs and a recession that hurt hospitality operators across the country.

 

Now K&D, based in Willoughby, has found a solution. On Friday, the company bought out its delinquent mortgage on the hotel and secured financing for a $3 million apartment makeover. That transformation will add 232 apartments to a downtown hungry for rental housing. And for K&D, the largest private owner of apartments in Northeast Ohio, it's a logical transition.

 

...

 

http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/10/kd_group_will_close_embassy_su.html

 

Like we aren't already short on hotel rooms downtown...

 

That's 232 MORE apartments downtown.  Not a bad thing at all!  Also from the article, it's great to hear developers know demand is growing for corporate units as "more companies consider moving downtown".  Great news!

 

I wonder where the tipping point will be regarding any new construction of apartment units downtown... does anyone know what the cost per sq-ft must be to support new construction?  The article mentioned that the rental rates will be higher than in the existing apartment building in Reserve Square, but didn't say how much. The more conversions/rehabs there are, the less available buildings there will be to convert.  I know realistically downtown has buildings yet to be converted- but I think developers are missing a segment of the population which would love to move into a new construction downtown.

Im in the process of making a map of all Downtown Residencies. Here is what I have so far.

 

Zooming in makes it better and you can click on a building to see how many units it has.

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

Also map is same key as my other map posted in the Cleveland Random Development thread.

 

Blue is the extent of the Ameritrust Complex

Red is Section 8

Green are other current/underway/kindofhappening projects with possible residential aspects.

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow are current residential buildings.[/glow]

 

I have just updated this map. I added a new category.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Yellow - Current Apartments/Condos

[/glow]Orange - Underway/Final Planning stages

Green - Planned Conversions

Purple - Dorms

Red - Public Housing

 

http://tinyurl.com/DowntownCleveland

 

Great map!

I just noticed that you have Heritage Hall in yellow at Superior and 22-- this is actually a csu dorm as well.

 

Csu dorms:

Euclid commons

Fenn tower

Heritage hall

 

Also, the Langston has a whopping 308 total units, not merely 260 :)

Great map Cleveland! What about the Riverbend condos on West 10th??

We've all been frothing over having a new apartment tower, like 515 Euclid Ave which would add 240 units. This one will add almost as many (232 units)! I'd prefer to see new buildings going up, but this is the next best thing.

 

And I suspect we'll see some more movement with Kimpton at the Schofield Building at 9th and Euclid, plus Le Meridien in the John Hartness Brown buildings in the 1000 block of Euclid. That section really needs more life. It's the only dead section of Euclid remaining between Public Square and the Inner Belt.

Thanks guys!

 

@CLE618, I thought Heritage Hall was run more like apartments, but I agree with you that it should be considered dorms so I changed it on the map. Thanks!

 

 

@Murray Hill, I have the Langston broken up by phase. The first phase is in yellow since it is completed and has 48 units. The second phase is in orange, since its still under construction and has 260 units. I wasn't sure if these were numbers 100% correct but that is what I found on here. Does phase two have 308 units alone?

 

 

@stpats44113, Thanks, and im surprised I missed that one. Ive added it to the map. Do you know how many units it has?

@Murray Hill, I have the Langston broken up by phase. The first phase is in yellow since it is completed and has 48 units. The second phase is in orange, since its still under construction and has 260 units. I wasn't sure if these were numbers 100% correct but that is what I found on here. Does phase two have 308 units alone?

 

My apologies -- you are in fact correct. I was the one who divided up those numbers, but my source was the Action 19 news report when the first building opened. 

 

Thanks again for this awesome map.

 

 

And I suspect we'll see some more movement with Kimpton at the Schofield Building at 9th and Euclid, plus Le Meridien in the John Hartness Brown buildings in the 1000 block of Euclid. That section really needs more life. It's the only dead section of Euclid remaining between Public Square and the Inner Belt.

 

This has been stated now over and over in at least three different threads discussing the Embassy Suite closing by numerous posters as well as in news report analysis.  While this seems to be a rationale assumption (maybe even a no brainer) just given the basis law of supply and demand the simplicity of it just seems to bother me.  Other than supply and demand are there any other factors related to the Embassy Suite closing that is going to get these projects moving.  I have no expertise in this area but I would thing there are a whole host of other reasons which are holding up financing on these projects for so long (could be something as simple as the banks feeling comfortable with these particular developers in this tight lending market (especially for hotels as regularly expressed)).  I just don't know.

This is good news. It will liven the area with more people and also help to get more retail in the area. With these new developments the downtown population should creep closer to 15k which will allow for more neighborhood level retail and a more vibrant area overall.

the area around the park is quickly becoming a nice little residential district.  now imagine if the section of huntington that faces chester had apartments while the side facing euclid and e. 9th housed the county.

With about 4286 units downtown, and a population of 6,312, it comes out to about 1.5 people per unit.

 

668 Euclid Avenue and the Langston Phase 1 are not included, so that is about another 447 people, bringing downtowns total to about 6759.

 

With that formula, the Hanna Annex, Chester Commons, Reserve Square, and 1717 East 9th, will add about 873 people to downtown, bringing the total up to 7632.

 

The langston seems to be adding about 2 people per unit, so when phase 2 is done that could bring in an additional 520 people, bring up the total to 8152.

the area around the park is quickly becoming a nice little residential district.  now imagine if the section of huntington that faces chester had apartments while the side facing euclid and e. 9th housed the county.

 

Plus K&D's East Ohio plan, which is really just a stones throw from the Park.

Also, does anyone know if the 4 bedroom units at the Langston CSU students are splitting up are counted as 1 or 4 units?

I don't remember seeing this video...pretty well made!

 

Hey I'm in that video!

I don't remember seeing this video...pretty well made!

 

 

Then you should visit the I love Cleveland thread.  :P ;)

 

Hey I'm in that video!

 

At what point?

 

2013 is looking to be a good year for Downtown Cleveland for new apartment units coming online:

 

DOWNTOWN CLEVELAND NEW RESIDENTIAL

 

New apartment units 2012: (147 total units)

Avenue District Luxury Apartments (59 apartments) http://www.zaremba.net/community/index.php?cid=2667

The Langston Apartments -- Building 1 (48 apartments) http://campusdistrictobserver.com/read/2012/09/05/the-langston-welcomes-first-tenants-near-csu

 

Under Construction: (679 total units)

The Langston Apartments -- (270 apartments) remaining -- $54 million http://www.csuohio.edu/class/com/clevelandstater/Copy/140101.html

Rosetta Center Building (85 apartments) -- $7 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/06/cleveland_developers_win_prese.html

Hanna Annex Apartments (102 apartments) -- $23 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/12/playhousesquare_to_sell_downto.html

Embassy Suites hotel into residential @ Reserve Square (232 apartments) -- $3 million www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/10/kd_group_will_close_embassy_su.html

 

In the pipeline: (136 total units)

1120 Chester Ave (36 apartments) http://planning.city.cleveland.oh.us/bza/agenda/2012/crr04-30-2012.pdf

Truman Building at 1030 Euclid (26 apartments) -- $9 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/06/cleveland_developers_win_prese.html

The Park Building and Southworth Building apartments (34 apartments) -- $21 million http://development.ohio.gov/Urban/OHPTC/documents/Round7ApprovedApplications.pdf

Schofield Building (50 apartments) -- $40 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2010/06/four_northeast_ohio_projects_i.html

 

Planning Stages: (590 total units)

28-story Ameritrust (Breuer) Tower (215 apartments) -- total project $180 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/12/geis_coss_plan_to_build_a_new.html

Flats East Bank Phase II Residential (140 apartments  -- $120 million http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/04/flats_east_bank_project_lines.html

East Ohio Building at 1717 East Ninth St (223 apartments) http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/03/kd_group_plans_to_buy_redevelo.html

1224 Huron Rd (12 apartments) http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/09/kd_group_closes_hanna_building.html

 

Proposed:

Warehouse District mixed-used Transit Hub  http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/11/post_536.html

Halle Building at 1228 Euclid Ave (200 apartments) http://www.crainscleveland.com/article/20120716/SUB1/307169992

Arcade (100 apartments) http://crainscleveland.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=TOC

Baker Building at 1940 E 6th Street

 

When pigs fly:

515 Euclid Ave (240 units) http://www.desman.com/hotproperty/task,view/id,59/Itemid,168/

Huntington Bank Building at 917 Euclid Ave http://blog.cleveland.com/business/2008/11/huntington_moving_to_200_publi.html

Standard Building at 1370 Ontario St http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2012/01/railroad_union_nhttp://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/Themes/default/images/bbc/glow.gifations_oldest.html

Lakefront Residential http://blog.cleveland.com/architecture/2011/11/new_lakefront_plan_from_clevel.html

Playhouse Square parking lot across from Palace Theater http://www.cleveland.com/business/index.ssf/2011/12/playhousesquare_to_sell_downto.html

I don't remember seeing this video...pretty well made!

 

 

Then you should visit the I love Cleveland thread.  :P ;)

 

Hey I'm in that video!

 

At what point?

 

At 0:18 awkwardly laughing

 

At 0:26 the back if my head in the board room

 

At 0:41 awkwardly walking.

 

All in all pretty awkward looking. :)

Oops, wrong spot!

 

 

Cleveland: 'Fiscal Cliff' delaying downtown apartments

7:07 PM, Dec 6, 2012

 

CLEVELAND -- Cleveland Developer Rick Cicerchi claims issues surrounding the "fiscal cliff" are having a big impact on his small company and its plans to renovate vacant downtown buildings into much-needed apartments.

 

He says banks are balking at funding possible projects that could put another 50 construction workers on the job.

 

"They would be workers taking a paycheck home and making downtown residents we very much need," he said.

 

There's a serious need for more downtown apartment units.

 

He and his son are finishing up converting the 100-year-old Krause building on East 4th Street into six upscale units, including a penthouse with a deluxe rooftop view.

 

READ MORE AT:

http://www.wkyc.com/news/article/272562/3/Cleveland-Fiscal-Cliff-delaying-downtown-apartments

^sometimes I really question whether the first amendment is a good thing.

^sometimes I really question whether the first amendment is a good thing.

 

This was a company pity piece.  Not journalism or information sharing on the Fiscal issue.

^exactly what I was trying to convey in my own vague way (good thing I'm not a journalist :wink:)

Such nonsense. No bank is denying credit because of the fiscal cliff. We're all too worried about El Niño.

Especially considering that developers are getting financing for much larger residential projects downtown. County Executive Ed FitzGerald reports that Geis has its financing approved for the conversion of the 29-story Ameritrust tower to apartments. All it needs is the sale's final approval by the county council. That's a $180 million project.

 

Now K&D has its financing from Huntington for the conversion of the 21-story East Ohio building to apartments. That's a $65 million project. And I'm sure K&D had no trouble getting the $3 million in financing approved for the conversion of the Embassy Suites Hotel to 232 apartments.

 

So this character had his financing pulled? Gee, maybe it had to do with him?

 

So it sounds like the conversion of these three 20+ story buildings to apartments is moving forward. I'm absolutely amazed at the pace of change that's occurring downtown after 20 years of relative sluggishness. When all of the "easy" conversions are done, then I suspect we'll see some new apartment building construction. Some of these plans might start emerging when these big projects are nearing completion in 2014.

 

Although another old, big building may be turned into apartments before there's a new apartment tower built, such as the old Huntington, the Cleveland Athletic Club or the May Co. But it looks like the money is starting to flow for such big projects -- finally.

Does anyone think, though, that there may be an over-saturation of apartments in the coming months/years once all of these projects are complete? That's my fear honestly. I sure hope not, and I guess I'm just being pessimistic. I understand that we are seeing record occupancy and waiting lists. I just wonder if this is the new "norm" for downtown CLE or if it's just a phase.

This is the new trend nationwide. I think we will see this for the next twenty years or so then it'll push back to the burbs :) Ebbs and flows.

Does anyone think, though, that there may be an over-saturation of apartments in the coming months/years once all of these projects are complete? That's my fear honestly. I sure hope not, and I guess I'm just being pessimistic. I understand that we are seeing record occupancy and waiting lists. I just wonder if this is the new "norm" for downtown CLE or if it's just a phase.

 

I'll let you know in 20 years. Or 40 years. It's a wave. Ride it. In some cities, it's a wave that's been there to varying degrees for hundreds of years. Just enjoy it.

 

So according to this source (http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/Ohio/Cuyahoga-County/Cleveland/Downtown-Cleveland-Demographics.aspx) there are 3,089 households in downtown Cleveland.

 

If that's correct, then that makes the recently planned apartment conversions all the more remarkable. Consider:

 

The Langston Apartments -- 260 apartments

Rosetta Center Building -- 85 apartments

Hanna Annex Apartments -- 102 apartments

Embassy Suites into residential -- 232 apartments

1120 Chester Ave -- 36 apartments

Truman Building at 1030 Euclid -- 26 apartments

Park/Southworth buildings -- 34 apartments

Schofield Building -- 50 apartments

Ameritrust (Breuer) Tower -- 215 apartments

Flats East Bank Phase II Residential -- 140 apartments

East Ohio/1717 East 9th -- 223 apartments

1224 Huron -- 12 apartments

 

That's 1,405 housing units under construction or planned downtown. If all those get built, the occupancy rates will probably go down but how far? To 95%?? OK, I used 90% to arrive at 1265 occupied units. The average number of persons per household downtown is 2.23 (per the source linked above). If that number stays consistent, then we're looking at:

 

2,820 new residents downtown by about 2015!

Thanks for the additional numbers KJP.  On top of that, I'd expect CSU to at least begin construction for additional housing by 2015. 

 

We're definitely inching towards some critial point numbers here.

Does anyone think, though, that there may be an over-saturation of apartments in the coming months/years once all of these projects are complete? That's my fear honestly. I sure hope not, and I guess I'm just being pessimistic. I understand that we are seeing record occupancy and waiting lists. I just wonder if this is the new "norm" for downtown CLE or if it's just a phase.

 

I'll let you know in 20 years. Or 40 years. It's a wave. Ride it. In some cities, it's a wave that's been there to varying degrees for hundreds of years. Just enjoy it.

 

So according to this source (http://homes.point2.com/Neighborhood/US/Ohio/Cuyahoga-County/Cleveland/Downtown-Cleveland-Demographics.aspx) there are 3,089 households in downtown Cleveland.

 

If that's correct, then that makes the recently planned apartment conversions all the more remarkable. Consider:

 

The Langston Apartments -- 260 apartments

Rosetta Center Building -- 85 apartments

Hanna Annex Apartments -- 102 apartments

Embassy Suites into residential -- 232 apartments

1120 Chester Ave -- 36 apartments

Truman Building at 1030 Euclid -- 26 apartments

Park/Southworth buildings -- 34 apartments

Schofield Building -- 50 apartments

Ameritrust (Breuer) Tower -- 215 apartments

Flats East Bank Phase II Residential -- 140 apartments

East Ohio/1717 East 9th -- 223 apartments

1224 Huron -- 12 apartments

 

That's 1,405 housing units under construction or planned downtown. If all those get built, the occupancy rates will probably go down but how far? To 95%?? OK, I used 90% to arrive at 1265 occupied units. The average number of persons per household downtown is 2.23 (per the source linked above). If that number stays consistent, then we're looking at:

 

2,820 new residents downtown by about 2015!

I thought The Langston was 370 units?

318 apartments http://www.csuohio.edu/class/com/clevelandstater/Copy/140101.html

 

48 complete + 270 under construction

 

EDIT: this article says 308, but it's a few months older http://blog.cleveland.com/metro/2011/06/new_neighborhood_to_rise_on_cl.html

There seems to be confusion on the number of units haha. I'm going to go with that number as well since there are two articles with it. I found another saying 370 and Polaris Equities, the developer, says 275 units...OY.

Not sure that zip code is a good proxy for number of households/population. Those are the households for 44115, but huge swaths of downtown are 44113 and 44114, and all three zip codes bleed over significantly into surrounding neighborhoods like Asiatown, Tremont and Ohio City.

 

The downtown population post-Census was pegged at 11,000 in the Downtown Population thread (http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,415.245.html), give or take (although there was a healthy debate about where downtown begins and ends and whether we should count transitory populations, not that we need that debate again here :D)

 

Basically, I think 3,089 households is probably low ... But if we accept a 2010 population of about 11,000, plus some additions since the Census (later units of CSU's dormitories, Avenue District, etc.), 2,820 new residents in 5 years is still huge! And if we keep up that pace through 2020, we'd be looking at about 17,000 residents downtown, more than a 50% gain ... after 55.8% growth 2000 - 2010 and 32.2% growth 1990-2000. Good times, good times!

The growth in downtown population has been awesome, and looks to continue to be awesome, but I think ClevelandOhio decisively debunked the 11,000 number.  The same tract-level census data he used would also give us a pretty good household count.  Is it not he who has also been keeping a building by building unit count?

According to COhio, the downtown population is 6,312. According to the US census the 2010 population was 9,471. Are there really 3,159 people in the city jail? Another thing to consider is that in 2010 occupancy just hit 93% and is now pushing 98%. Regardless, downtown population will continue to grow quickly. Next census we should see population stabilizing in Ohio City, Tremont, and Detroit-Shoreway possibly even growing. There are too many unknowns, but the rate of development/redevelopment is definitely increasing quickly in the city.

Not sure that zip code is a good proxy for number of households/population. Those are the households for 44115, but huge swaths of downtown are 44113 and 44114, and all three zip codes bleed over significantly into surrounding neighborhoods like Asiatown, Tremont and Ohio City.

 

The downtown population post-Census was pegged at 11,000 in the Downtown Population thread (http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,415.245.html), give or take (although there was a healthy debate about where downtown begins and ends and whether we should count transitory populations, not that we need that debate again here :D)

 

Basically, I think 3,089 households is probably low ... But if we accept a 2010 population of about 11,000, plus some additions since the Census (later units of CSU's dormitories, Avenue District, etc.), 2,820 new residents in 5 years is still huge! And if we keep up that pace through 2020, we'd be looking at about 17,000 residents downtown, more than a 50% gain ... after 55.8% growth 2000 - 2010 and 32.2% growth 1990-2000. Good times, good times!

 

My main reason for looking at the link was to try to get a handle on what the current number of persons per downtown household are. Those two zip codes had an average of 2.2 persons per household or higher. I wanted to take whatever that number is and multiply it by the number of new apartments coming on to the market by about 2015 (assuming the occupancy rates drop a bit to 90% with the sudden surge of added product available).

 

If the 2,820 figure is in the ballpark, that surge of population for such a small area should be helpful for also adding new retail, restaurants and other amenities.

 

Although, as we drool over 2,820 new residents, the relocation of AmTrust Financial to downtown will alone bring 1,000 new people downtown -- albeit over a couple of years too. But it's nice to have the 24-hour population, not just weekday 9-5 population.

The growth in downtown population has been awesome, and looks to continue to be awesome, but I think ClevelandOhio decisively debunked the 11,000 number.  The same tract-level census data he used would also give us a pretty good household count.  Is it not he who has also been keeping a building by building unit count?

 

True. Like I said, there's a lot of disagreement about where downtown begins and ends and who we should be including. I think hitting the magical, largely arbitrary 25,000 number needed to support a 24/7 economy factors into this discussion, although I'd say that percentage growth in residential population and change in density of residences are probably more valuable measures. From my perspective, it's less important whether there are 9,000 or 12,000 downtown and more important that we be using the same methodology to look at 1990 - 2020 percent changes. Otherwise, we face the same problems the feds face if they change what goes into how the poverty rate is calculated ... It may be a more accurate measure, but you suddenly can see 4 million new poor people, purely a result of change in methodology. Similarly, if Brookings says we had 9,600 people in 2000, and we're saying now that we have a more accurate count of 9,000, it's closer to correct but draws away from our ability to articulate growth, unless we're going back and figuring using the new methodology back to 1990 or earlier. Sorry, I digress ... Back to our regularly scheduled programming :)

The growth in downtown population has been awesome, and looks to continue to be awesome, but I think ClevelandOhio decisively debunked the 11,000 number.  The same tract-level census data he used would also give us a pretty good household count.  Is it not he who has also been keeping a building by building unit count?

 

Yes, I recently did some updating to it.

 

http://goo.gl/maps/eHPg1

 

According to COhio, the downtown population is 6,312. According to the US census the 2010 population was 9,471. Are there really 3,159 people in the city jail? Another thing to consider is that in 2010 occupancy just hit 93% and is now pushing 98%. Regardless, downtown population will continue to grow quickly. Next census we should see population stabilizing in Ohio City, Tremont, and Detroit-Shoreway possibly even growing. There are too many unknowns, but the rate of development/redevelopment is definitely increasing quickly in the city.

 

If I remember correctly there are over 2,200 people in the jail. The 9,471 number also includes homeless shelters which I removed from my count.

"That's 1,405 housing units under construction or planned downtown. If all those get built, the occupancy rates will probably go down but how far? To 95%?? OK, I used 90% to arrive at 1265 occupied units. The average number of persons per household downtown is 2.23 (per the source linked above). If that number stays consistent, then we're looking at:

 

Read more: http://www.urbanohio.com/forum2/index.php/topic,24830.560.html#ixzz2Fio8UvRy"

 

I don't believe that the amount of people that want to live downtown remains static as more are built.  If there are more people living downtown, more activity, more development, then more people want to be a part of it and live here.  I think the vacancy rate will DROP as these new units come on board.  A new place fills to 100% pretty quickly (668 and Bingham way back).  Density and activity attracts residents.  It would be interesting to know what the attraction ratio for downtown's population is, and how does it rise as more people more into the city.

New York City is an extreme example of this but also perhaps the best. People want to be in New York City because of the activity but also the access to amenities. And the only way you can get keep adding more activity and amenities is to keep adding more people. It becomes a feedback loop.

 

When we get to 15,000 residents, then you have the basis for 24-hour restaurants and drug stores. Although we now have Jakes on Public Square which is a bodega/cafe that serves prepared foods with places to sit and eat 24 hours a day. But it's the only one downtown, and its a combination of several stores into one. Maybe we'll get those in individual stores (like a 24-hour convenience store, and a 24-hour sit-down family-style restaurant, and 24-hour coffee/pastry cafe). Maybe it will bring that full-service grocery store we've longed for. Or one of the smaller department stores that offers clothing, furniture, dining, beauty, home accessories, bed/bath, kids stuff like a Marshall's, TJ Maxx, Kohls, etc.

 

But if some or all of those businesses open, I have no doubts that will INCREASE the number of people wanting to be downtown. And the feedback loop continues....

 

 

The growth in downtown population has been awesome, and looks to continue to be awesome, but I think ClevelandOhio decisively debunked the 11,000 number.  The same tract-level census data he used would also give us a pretty good household count.  Is it not he who has also been keeping a building by building unit count?

 

Yes, I recently did some updating to it.

 

http://goo.gl/maps/eHPg1

 

According to COhio, the downtown population is 6,312. According to the US census the 2010 population was 9,471. Are there really 3,159 people in the city jail? Another thing to consider is that in 2010 occupancy just hit 93% and is now pushing 98%. Regardless, downtown population will continue to grow quickly. Next census we should see population stabilizing in Ohio City, Tremont, and Detroit-Shoreway possibly even growing. There are too many unknowns, but the rate of development/redevelopment is definitely increasing quickly in the city.

 

If I remember correctly there are over 2,200 people in the jail. The 9,471 number also includes homeless shelters which I removed from my count.

 

I added up the units that you counted and multiplied by 2.23 (the census's estimate of people per household) and multiplied that by .98, the recent occupancy rate and got 11,907 for an estimated Downtown population.  That doesn't count CSU students in dorms, homeless shelters/permanent supportive housing residents, or the jail.  It does include other low income housing units, though.  So the number really is higher than that, probably by another couple of thousand.  With the u/c, planned and proposed units, that's another 3,000 people.

 

I think that number is probably a lot more accurate than the census count, which showed ridiculously high vacancy rates compared to what market reports were showing at the time.  I really don't trust the ability of the census takers to accurately measure the population of people living in Downtown apartments.

^As a downtown resident, you may have better insight, but that 2.23 person per household sounds way too high to me (for downtown).  The 2010 census count (so maybe flawed, but not an estimate) found an average household size of 1.36 for the three downtown tracts (I aggregated them). This is only for the 5,588 residents it counted in households, so excludes the county jail residents, the shelters, the college dorms, and any other group quarters.

 

Just to be clear though, ClevelandOhio's census adjustments establish a better baseline than the 11,000 number people initially pulled from the raw data, they don't purport to the current population (that's all I meant by "debunked," anyway).  Those adjusted numbers wouldn't include 668 Euclid, for instance, which opened after the census count data.  So assuming you're counting all the currently opened non-institutional units in your estimate, if you go with the lower average household size the census found, it brings the population (excluding group quarters) back down to 7,261.  I've lost track of the bed count in Fenn Tower, University Commons, and the old YMCA, but that would definitely bring the total non-homeless, non-jailed population up another 1000+ (or more?).  Which is great.