Who will succeed Mallory in 2013?

Nov. 17, 2011  |  Written by Jane Prendergast

 

 

Ten days after Cincinnatians elected a new City Council, talk is already turning toward who might become the next mayor.

 

Vice Mayor Roxanne Qualls seems to be regarded the front-runner right now - two years out. She was mayor from 1993 to 1999 (when the mayor was council's top vote-getter). She's finished first in all three council races since she returned to council in 2007.

 

This time she was almost 7,000 votes ahead of her closest competitor, a significantly bigger spread than between any of the eight finalists behind her. A map of precinct winners shows she swept from Downtown up through the city's center, through Clifton, Northside and into Hartwell and Carthage.

 

"She has a very passionate following," said Tim Burke, chairman of the Hamilton County Democratic Party. Both the Democrats and Charterites endorsed Qualls.

 

And Qualls, 58, has the next two years to show what she can do, especially now that voters gave her six Democrats with whom she can work. She said it's too soon to talk specifics about 2013.

 

Cont

How is this even a story?  Of course Qualls will succeed Mallory.  Of course only a token ® will run against her and lose badly.  Does this only seem obvious to me?

Qualls.

Nathaniel Livingston has an interesting take on it on his blog: http://blackcincinnati.blogspot.com/2011/11/who-will-succeed-mallory-in-2013.html

 

He's saying the Enquirer is leading this story to avert attention away from what Mallory will be doing next, which he thinks will be to run against Chabot.

^I would absolutely love to see that happen!!

Unfortunately, Mallory would have 0 chance against Chabot in the new republican drawn districts.  It would be a landslide of somewhere around 70-30. The newly drawn Chabot District is now almost 70% republican instead of the slightly leans republican district it had been for decades.

I wouldn't mind seeing Mallory make a run for Governor, assuming Strickland doesn't decide to make another run.

At this time, may I venture out there by saying that Mallory has been a decent mayor who brought positive vibes to Cincinnati.  I'm looking forward to Roxanne Qualls, but I will miss him very much.

I wouldn't mind seeing Mallory make a run for Governor, assuming Strickland doesn't decide to make another run.

 

I hope Strickland does re-run. He was a good governor who left no real scandal, and it was a real shame that he got washed out in the ridiculous 2010 republican tide that has amounted to nothing.

I wouldn't mind seeing Mallory make a run for Governor, assuming Strickland doesn't decide to make another run.

 

I hope Strickland does re-run. He was a good governor who left no real scandal, and it was a real shame that he got washed out in the ridiculous 2010 republican tide that has amounted to nothing.

 

Someone in the party told me he was running. Can't remember who

Unfortunately, Mallory would have 0 chance against Chabot in the new republican drawn districts.  It would be a landslide of somewhere around 70-30. The newly drawn Chabot District is now almost 70% republican instead of the slightly leans republican district it had been for decades.

One issue on the redistricting is that a wacko right winger Republican from Warren could challenge Chabot in the primary sending a bloodied Chabot into the general election or, if the farther right candidate won, more moderate Republicans in Hamilton County might vote Dem. Doubt it, tho. Seems like most people vote party line.

^ I agree- best chance a dem has is if a tea party conservative attacks chabot for supporting bush's budgets, looses in a bloody primary and then STILL runs (similar to in NY-23 and AK Senate races[sort of]) and THEN a dem could possibly win.

 

And back to mayor... my money is on Qualls. 

Unfortunately for Mallory, there is another African-American mayor of a large city in Ohio that has aspirations (particularly after winning his fourth term), he also has the benefit of being a Toledo native, I speak of course of Michael Coleman.

Ya- Coleman stands a much better chance than Mallory-  And, He's from Toledo, went to UC, then UD Law, and now is mayor of Columbus.  He will have networks in those 4 cities that he can easily build back up for base support and obviously would win Cleveland. 

 

Also, I love Mallory, but he is a pretty lazy campaigner.  He can easily win Cincinnati due to family name, etc. but he wouldn't stand a chance statewide.  The fact that Wenstrup got 45% of the vote was scary!!!!

I wonder if Bortz will run for mayor anytime soon.

 

Or, if Berding is still working on the strong mayor CEO thing.

 

Or, if PG Sittenfeld will deign to serve as mayor of Porkopolis one day.

 

:wink:

I've heard Cranley will run for mayor against Roxanne. Seems like he will be running on an anti-streetcar platform.

Does Cranley even stand a chance against Cincinnati's former mayor and still popular city councilperson?  And how will such a contest be decided, if Cranley does pick up the gauntlet?

how will such a contest be decided

 

I can't keep all of the recent charter changes straight. Do we still do a vote or is it battle royale now?

I don't know if Cranley stands a real chance or not.  I don't know who or how much money is behind him.  But it's a fact that Qualls has gotten the most votes in every council race going back to the 90s, and she doesn't spend as much money as most of the other candidates.  My guess is that Cranley is going to have to spend more money than Qualls, even though talk radio is going to fawn all over him. 

Smitherman made a comment on one of the AM entertainment shows last week that he's not going to run for Mayor and that he'll be putting his support behind either Winburn or Cranley. He'll "let them work out which one will run".

Someone on the 400 block of Riddle Rd. still has their Smitherman campaign sign prominently positioned in their yard. 

Does this mean Cranley's career as a developer is over?  Or am I mistaken that the reason he resigned last time was because he was developing properties in the Incline District (which could potentially implicate conflicts)? 

He's doing all that junk in Price Hill to appeal to old-time West Siders, most of whom grew up in Price Hill and moved to "newer" (1950s, 60s ranches) parts of the West Side, leaving the old neighborhood to rot.  He'll be able to advertise himself as someone trying to "turn Price Hill around" to all those old people who still have a soft spot in their heart for Price Hill.  His west side credentials are troublesome though, since he went to St. Xavier High School and to Harvard.  All Qualls has to do is say why is this Harvard Law grad acting like he's one of you?  To trick you into voting for him.  But I doubt she will do that. 

Smitherman made a comment on one of the AM entertainment shows last week that he's not going to run for Mayor and that he'll be putting his support behind either Winburn or Cranley. He'll "let them work out which one will run".

The windbag has sqid he would support a Qualls candidacy but, whatever way the wind blows.....

Qualls is a known, trusted commodity in the town.  If Cranley ran against her for the big seat, the only good he could do himself would be to make a decent showing to up his stock for a job other than Mayor of Cincinnati.

Qualls is a known, trusted commodity in the town.  If Cranley ran against her for the big seat, the only good he could do himself would be to make a decent showing to up his stock for a job other than Mayor of Cincinnati.

 

Cranley was on council for almost a decade. He is a democrat who will have support from conservatives. Brad Wenstrup, as an unknown white male republican, was able to put up 45% against Mallory. Cranley poses a very real threat to Qualls and to the streetcar project, but hopefully the project will be too far along to stop by the time a new mayor is sworn in. However, it would be frustrating to have a Mayor opposing expansion.

Where will COAST's howls of protests and threats of lawsuits for conflict of interests be when Cranley The developer runs for Mayor?

^ Gawd, can you imagine such a scenario if Cranley did win over Qualls (and opposed the streetcar)?  It would be an unmitigated disaster on virtually every front, casting the city back into the national spotlight (even if briefly) for comic relief, resurrect all the streetcar opposition, split city-council, and divide the city in half.  This can't be allowed to happen.

^Probably best to stop playing what-if and giving opponents ideas that they might not come up with on their own.  Just deal with opposition as it comes, instead of anticipating something that may not actually happen.

Oh, they've thought of all this already.  They are masters of mayhem. 

Ya, Cranley would definitely have a shot at it.  In his last election, Qualls beat him out by only 3 votes for top vote getter.

^^Yeah, I'm sure they have.  I just don't like poking the bear, that's all.  We just need to hope that the project keeps progressing.  Speaking of which, anything new on that front? 

The real dirt on Cranley is the tape of the Council meeting the night he basically caused the 2001 riots.

^As I understand it, it was really an expert political move by Charlie Luken.  He was mayor and was in council chambers, but because Cranley was chair of whatever committee was meeting, he sat there silently and let Cranley deal with the hostile crowd.  So you had a 26 or 27 year-old who had been on council for just five months at the flashpoint of a major event.   

 

 

Qualls is a known, trusted commodity in the town.  If Cranley ran against her for the big seat, the only good he could do himself would be to make a decent showing to up his stock for a job other than Mayor of Cincinnati.

 

Cranley was on council for almost a decade. He is a democrat who will have support from conservatives. Brad Wenstrup, as an unknown white male republican, was able to put up 45% against Mallory. Cranley poses a very real threat to Qualls and to the streetcar project, but hopefully the project will be too far along to stop by the time a new mayor is sworn in. However, it would be frustrating to have a Mayor opposing expansion.

 

This is pretty much what I just said.  Cranley will show well in a general election, but he won´t win.  There´s winning, and there´s almost winning.  Southern Ohioans who´ve been watching Cincinnati sports for the past 20 years should understand the difference.

 

There´s also being prepared for an attack and there´s panicking.  Let´s not be afraid to be excited about the Streetcar and make that a focus of our gospel.

^ What he said.  Cranley might huff and puff in the leadup to the 2013 election, but we have to remember a few things: 1) That's 17 months away.  If I recall, we'll be about 12 months past the selection of contractors at that point, and work will be well underway.  There will likely be tangible signs that the streetcar is coming. 2) We just had an election which turned out most of the anti-streetcar members of council.  It would take three new or returning anti-streetcar members, in addition to Cranley as mayor, to get the votes to stop the project. 3) I dare say that additional debate and rabble-rousing on the streetcar would invoke voter fatigue with the issue.  We defeated two ballot initiatives and turned out anti-streetcar council members last time.  If that's not indication that the votes are with us, I don't know what is.

 

I know much could change with the electorate in 18 months, and I'm not counting my chickens yet.  Cranley can huff and puff and score points in Westwood and Cheviot on the issue, but it does feel like we're past the tipping point here.

My bet is there will be less Cranley supporters and more Qualls supporters then than now. The demographics have been shifting towards Qualls for a while and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

 

This is the type of positive momentum which Cunningham praising OTR could conceivably thwart.

What people are forgetting here is that the local Democratic party might be looking to avoid a primary showdown between Qualls and Cranley, and so Cranley might be acting as if he's running for mayor, then get some kind of appointment in state government or elsewhere from the party in exhange for not running against Qualls. 

 

If there is a primary election voters much choose one or the other, unlike council elections, where people can vote for as many candidates as they choose.  So the fact that Cranley finished just behind Qualls in a council race doesn't really matter. 

 

 

What people are forgetting here is that the local Democratic party might be looking to avoid a primary showdown between Qualls and Cranley, and so Cranley might be acting as if he's running for mayor, then get some kind of appointment in state government or elsewhere from the party in exhange for not running against Qualls. 

 

If there is a primary election voters much choose one or the other, unlike council elections, where people can vote for as many candidates as they choose.  So the fact that Cranley finished just behind Qualls in a council race doesn't really matter.

 

There will only be a primary if there are more than 2 running for mayor. Remember we have the open primary system now.

What people are forgetting here is that the local Democratic party might be looking to avoid a primary showdown between Qualls and Cranley, and so Cranley might be acting as if he's running for mayor, then get some kind of appointment in state government or elsewhere from the party in exhange for not running against Qualls. 

 

If there is a primary election voters much choose one or the other, unlike council elections, where people can vote for as many candidates as they choose.  So the fact that Cranley finished just behind Qualls in a council race doesn't really matter. 

 

 

 

This is more or less what I was putting out there in my post yesterday regarding Cranley.  Whichever path his handlers choose for him, he'll land on his feet in some office he doesn't deserve and won't serve well.  Cincinnati politicians are great at losing locally and winning an even more influential office via graft and voter incompetence.

He would likely run as and Independent or Republican if he really wants to challenge Qualls. She is a lock for being the Democratic and Charterite candidate.

He would likely run as and Independent or Republican if he really wants to challenge Qualls. She is a lock for being the Democratic and Charterite candidate.

 

Not how it works in our open primary system. All candidates run in the primary, and then the top two vote getters square off in the general. In 2005 Mallory and Pepper, both Dems, ran against each other in the November general election.

The primary should be decided by which candidate can lead a more compelling rendition of Touchdown Bengals. 

He would likely run as and Independent or Republican if he really wants to challenge Qualls. She is a lock for being the Democratic and Charterite candidate.

 

Not how it works in our open primary system. All candidates run in the primary, and then the top two vote getters square off in the general. In 2005 Mallory and Pepper, both Dems, ran against each other in the November general election.

 

One thing to remember- there would have to be NO major African American candidates on the primary ballot for both Cranley & Qualls to end up as the top vote getters. Pretty slim chance of that.

One thing to remember- there would have to be NO major African American candidates on the primary ballot for both Cranley & Qualls to end up as the top vote getters. Pretty slim chance of that.

 

A strong African American candidate in the primary could hurt Qualls more than Cranley.

 

Since I am already bored of the 2012 election season and ready to start thinking about local politics again, I guess it might be time to start speculating who might populate that ballot.

 

In no particular order:

Roxanne Qualls

John Cranley

Charlie Winburn

Cecil Thomas

 

I'm having trouble coming up with other potential strong candidates. I am sure there will be others but I doubt there will be any serious Republican candidate other than Winburn (debatable Republican status aside). Does anyone know of a wildcard candidate in the same vein as a Courtis Fuller? Pepper doesn't live in the city anymore. Steve Driehaus? Is he still in Africa? Would Alicia Reece take another crack at it? Sandra Queen Noble? Jerry Springer?

 

Still waiting for the Chris Smitherman/Mark Miller of COAST ticket

Cranley sure looked like he was in campaign mode at the city council meeting today.

It's basically a certainty he will run.  I've been hearing those rumors for a while now as well. He's getting an EARLY start and the Enquirer seems to be loving all the hullabaloo around it. 

And then there's this guy...

 

Another candidate weighing a run for Cincinnati mayor

 

By: Lucy May

Senior Staff Reporter/Associate Editor- Business Courier

 

Cincinnati Councilmember Charlie Winburn is weighing a run for mayor in 2013.

Winburn told me this morning that he hasn’t made up his mind about running. But he’s been getting encouragement from supporters throughout the city who want to see him run.

Starting immediately, Winburn said he’ll begin gauging his support in five ways: a voter survey, polling, focus groups, a discussion with family and friends and a discussion with his political party. (Winburn is the lone Republican on council right now.)

LOL, I definitely remember him saying he would support Qualls.

^ditto

but whaddya expect?

 

http://cincinnati.com/blogs/opinionati/2010/09/15/winburn-im-for-qualls/