I can tell you as a Millennial, especially that goes to UC, there's a growing revitalization of, "young people" wanting to move to OTR and closer to the core. Many of us (can't speak for all of course) absolutely hate the suburbs and are tired to have to drive everywhere. There's a huge movement of Cincinnati being, "cool" again, and that mainly is due to OTR and North side (to a smaller extent).

 

That said, the older crowd (40-60's) will be lucky to have that passion reignited. The disinvestment of OTR during the 80's-2010's will forever be etched in there brains. The riots, the murders, that sense of danger will never disappear for them. To them, OTR and the urban core as a place to live and play will never exist.

 

That used to bother me, but I'm okay with that now. The millennials are what will drive the future of this city. I can tell you first hand we love this city and the urban core, and are doing everything in our power to flee the suburbs of blue ash/montgomery/etc and move down to the urban core when we have the financial means to do so. I can guarantee you guys this city will be a night and day difference in the next 30 years.

Troy, that's what excites me about Cincinnnati right now, there has been a seachange in mindset especially among younger people.  The new culture that is replacing the old one is awesome and much more positive.  Cincy is on a rocky road right now, but its future is really bright.

Actually many of the older OTR haters hate it because they themselves used to buy drugs there when they went to UC or Miami.  I have heard stories from guys who claim they used to drive down to Green St. to buy drugs, then zipped back up to Scioto Hall or wherever. 

 

Imagine being a church-going family man aged 55 or so having your kid express a desire to buy a condo a block from where you used to buy drugs. 

^ lol. You're probably right about some of the hardcore haters. Those who protest the loudest usually have some sort of personal shame involved with the topic. You see it all the time with right wing politicians passing discriminatory legislation aimed at the LGBT community, only to be caught in a gay controversy themselves.

I can tell you as a Millennial, especially that goes to UC, there's a growing revitalization of, "young people" wanting to move to OTR and closer to the core. Many of us (can't speak for all of course) absolutely hate the suburbs and are tired to have to drive everywhere. There's a huge movement of Cincinnati being, "cool" again, and that mainly is due to OTR and North side (to a smaller extent).

 

That said, the older crowd (40-60's) will be lucky to have that passion reignited. The disinvestment of OTR during the 80's-2010's will forever be etched in there brains. The riots, the murders, that sense of danger will never disappear for them. To them, OTR and the urban core as a place to live and play will never exist.

 

That used to bother me, but I'm okay with that now. The millennials are what will drive the future of this city. I can tell you first hand we love this city and the urban core, and are doing everything in our power to flee the suburbs of blue ash/montgomery/etc and move down to the urban core when we have the financial means to do so. I can guarantee you guys this city will be a night and day difference in the next 30 years.

 

That phenomenon manifests itself in strange ways. I have a friend/former boss who owns video game stores in Cincinnati-area malls. He moans constantly about never getting nearly enough N64s traded in. Meanwhile at my stores in Columbus and Lancaster we haven't had much trouble with that historically. He pays more for them than we do since marks them at a higher price point. I am almost sure it's because the Cincinnati 'burbs are losing a large portion of their 20-somethings to DT, OTR and Uptown. They still have their N64s at their parents' house, but they refuse to set foot in the suburban malls. Meanwhile, Lancaster's 20-somethings stick around and still go to my store in the mall there.

Who are these college students who don't at least have a friend who knows a guy who deals? I've always been perplexed by young people who go into dangerous neighborhoods to buy drugs from people they've never met. Don't you know anyone who could hook you up? Dealers are the worst kept secret in the criminal world. I guarantee you know someone who deals. It just shocks me that people would go into OTR in the 80's-00's to buy drugs.

Hey now, you're killing the plot of Traffic.

Hey now, you're killing the plot of Traffic.

 

http://www.wcpo.com/entertainment/local-a-e/emilio-estevez-wants-to-call-over-the-rhine-home

 

Article on how OTR's recent success has created a more economically diverse neighborhood than before.

 

http://m.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2016/01/28/how-has-otrs-housing-been-transformed-over-the.html

Regarding that article linked above... It's based on this study that was done recently by Xavier's Community Building Institute http://media.bizj.us/view/img/8366002/otrhousinginventoryfullreport1-21-2016.pdf

 

Overall, I think most people agree that it's good to see OTR having more "mixed" income.

 

But here's the thing that struck me: despite all the "growth" in OTR in recent years, the total population actually continued to drop from 2010-2014 (when the "renaissance" was in full swing). In fact, over that 4 years, the drop was bigger than the drop from 2000-2010, which saw the riots... so you'd expect most of the population loss would have resulted from that time period.

 

I'm optimistic and I believe OTR can grow its population and be a place with a mix of incomes. But if the total population in OTR continues to drop (or stays at its current level), I think it'll be a failure of our city and OTR. We need to see the total OTR population rise, with a balance across the income spectrum, meaning more low income residents as well as more middle and high income residents.

 

Peak population of OTR was in 1900.

1900: 44,475

1960: 27,577

2000: 7,638

2010: 6,964

2014: 5,610

 

So it's a balance of refilling the rehabs and who is moving out vs. who is moving in. I'd guess that emigration is greater than immigration because lower income/higher occupancy is being replaced by higher income/lower occupancy and the volume of rehabs and new construction aren't making up the slack. Thoughts?

When some of the slumlords were kicked out, we lost population, but as those buildings are being rehabbed, we are gaining it back. However, we will never get back to OTR's peak historical population because a building that once had 20 small apartments might be rehabbed into 5 large apartments. The only way to make up some of that is by adding in taller buildings on vacant lots but we're already missing those opportunities. Look at the townhomes being built on Elm -- instead of adding a taller building with 100 apartments, we are building 8 townhomes.

^7 townhomes. On a lot that can house 40ish units at around 3-4 stories or easily house 60 if it was allowed to be 5 stories at the street and 6 set back from the street like we should be pushing for and allowing.

Also if you want to build some smaller houses on small lots, you'll find that many are too small for zoning, so you have to buy two and consolidate them, or buy three and divide them into two, etc.  This adds a lot of overhead and difficulty to what should be a simple project. 

Regarding that article linked above... It's based on this study that was done recently by Xavier's Community Building Institute http://media.bizj.us/view/img/8366002/otrhousinginventoryfullreport1-21-2016.pdf

 

Overall, I think most people agree that it's good to see OTR having more "mixed" income.

 

But here's the thing that struck me: despite all the "growth" in OTR in recent years, the total population actually continued to drop from 2010-2014 (when the "renaissance" was in full swing). In fact, over that 4 years, the drop was bigger than the drop from 2000-2010, which saw the riots... so you'd expect most of the population loss would have resulted from that time period.

 

I'm optimistic and I believe OTR can grow its population and be a place with a mix of incomes. But if the total population in OTR continues to drop (or stays at its current level), I think it'll be a failure of our city and OTR. We need to see the total OTR population rise, with a balance across the income spectrum, meaning more low income residents as well as more middle and high income residents.

 

Peak population of OTR was in 1900.

1900: 44,475

1960: 27,577

2000: 7,638

2010: 6,964

2014: 5,610

 

Not sure if that's an accurate analysis. I don't see how the renaissance was in full swing when what essentially was done was add some large infill projects along Vine and a renovated Washington Park. I still think perception of OTR between 2010-2014 was still mainly a, "edgy/hipster" destination that was considered still a dangerous area at the time, rather than a place for families to go out every weekend for some dinner/drinks.

 

I still don't even think the renaissance is in full swing yet. Hell look at Main Street, it's considered the most established and well off street in OTR, yet it's FILLED with vacant store fronts, and could be home to way more residents.

 

I think ultimately what will define OTR is time. Right now, 30-40 year old parents from the suburbs have no desire nor intention of wanting to move to OTR. Hell, many of them still think OTR is extremely dangerous. Millennials will what define the trajectory. The same millennials who are moving down to OTR, will they stay there? Will they raise families there? Will we see immigrants such as the large indian population move to OTR as well? What about the large Russian community we have in Mason/Loveland?

 

Many questions remain but we have hardly hit this, "renaissance" in my opinion.  All we have done is brought some large-ish infill projects, a few parking garages, a renovated Washington park, and added some restaurants/bars. Main St, Walnut St, Clay St, Vine ST, Race St, Elm St, these streets ALL need massive amount of work (aside from main st). So, yeah, I don't really believe were anywhere near the start of the, "true" renaissance in my opinion.

I think you're underselling it a bit. There have literally been hundreds of buildings renovated/built. That's not a small feat. Yes, there is a TON left to do and we're honestly probably only 1/4 of the way to a fully rebuilt/repopulated OTR but what has happened so far is nothing short of impressive. We're still early in it, but we're definitely well within the early stages of our renaissance.

A ton of buildings and lots have changed hands over the past five years, but many people who own land and buildings have no intention to build or renovate.  They're waiting around to sell.  Prices have to get truly ridiculous before we see a lot more activity.  Most of what remains, even if it's occupied, is in horrendous condition. 

 

Single-family homes are the easiest thing to finance.  Getting commercial loans is much more complicated and typically requires much more cash.  That's why we'll continue to see single-family homes build on empty lots, sometimes several side-by-side.  A developer can get the loans and sell an unbuilt house in just 90 days, then throw that money at their next project.  Building or renovating a large multi-family ties up a bunch of money for 1-2 years, perhaps much longer.

Does anyone have data for condo sales and new construction in Over-the-Rhine for 2016?  It seems like progress is steady, but that the rate is not increasing as it seemed to do sharply in 2014.  There is some stuff going on around Findlay Market, but there doesn't appear to be any other significant node of redevelopment north of Liberty St. 

The multi-family market, condo and rental, has peaked out in a lot of areas of the US. Lenders aren't lending as much.

The multi-family market, condo and rental, has peaked out in a lot of areas of the US. Lenders aren't lending as much.

 

A half dozen of 3CDC's $600k row houses on Mercer St. have been on the market for a full year. 

 

Well, the $600k townhomes were a dumb idea and never should have been built. Who was their target market for those units -- the P&G and Kroger c-suite? Unfortunately, I think many people are getting the impression that the market is stalling in Downtown and OTR, when in reality, it's just that major players have made some bad investments. If they were building apartments and condos in the $150-300k range, I think those would be selling out instantly. But instead they jumped up to the next tier and it turns out OTR isn't quite ready for that yet.

Well, the $600k townhomes were a dumb idea and never should have been built. Who was their target market for those units -- the P&G and Kroger c-suite? Unfortunately, I think many people are getting the impression that the market is stalling in Downtown and OTR, when in reality, it's just that major players have made some bad investments. If they were building apartments and condos in the $150-300k range, I think those would be selling out instantly. But instead they jumped up to the next tier and it turns out OTR isn't quite ready for that yet.

 

I think the actual character of those homes is the problem.  They don't have basements and some only have windows on one side since they back up to the parking garage.  If they were $300k they would sell.  But $600k gets you one of the old mansions in Clifton.  $300k+ new construction homes on narrow infill lots are going up all over on the east side. 

 

 

The ones that have the back face the garage were $375k. The $600k ones they just built have completely normal windows on the front and back.

Okay you are halfway correct, I am now seeing the tiny back patios on the listings through the first-floor windows of the $600k homes [https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1509585/12-Mercer-St-City-OH-45202].  It's basically a fenced-in alleyway so they didn't bother photographing them.  I think that they think those rooftop patios are big selling points, but the view looks to be pretty unimpressive since you're right at the same level as the top deck of the parking garage across the street. 

 

However I'm not seeing back windows or a back outdoor area for these ones on the north side of the garage:

https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1512309/7-Mercer-St-City-OH-45202

You are correct. I was remembering the back areas on the buildings just east of the townhomes on the south side of Mercer.

I think you changed your post at the same time I wrote mine. 

 

If anyone has any insight as to why 3CDC chose to build the strip of town homes on the north side of Mercer and the office building (which hasn't broken ground) instead of a block of 30-50 apartments or condos, please share it. 

Does anyone have data for condo sales and new construction in Over-the-Rhine for 2016?  It seems like progress is steady, but that the rate is not increasing as it seemed to do sharply in 2014.  There is some stuff going on around Findlay Market, but there doesn't appear to be any other significant node of redevelopment north of Liberty St.

 

I feel like the Source 3 Elm and Liberty project would constitute as a pretty big development North of Liberty

I think you changed your post at the same time I wrote mine. 

 

If anyone has any insight as to why 3CDC chose to build the strip of town homes on the north side of Mercer and the office building (which hasn't broken ground) instead of a block of 30-50 apartments or condos, please share it.

 

I walked down 14th yesterday and the elevator shaft for the office building was up to the 3rd or 4th floor and utilities are going in the ground.

I think you changed your post at the same time I wrote mine. 

 

If anyone has any insight as to why 3CDC chose to build the strip of town homes on the north side of Mercer and the office building (which hasn't broken ground) instead of a block of 30-50 apartments or condos, please share it. 

 

I did. I wrote it and then immediately thought to myself, "wait...is that even correct?" and went and checked and realized I was misremembering from when I toured one of those townhomes a few years back immediately following touring one of the other properties which had a back area squeezed between the building and the Mercer Garage.

I almost feel like parts of OTR need to start off with apartments and graduate to Condos, and these uber expensive townhomes aren't the best way to go especially when you are jumping into an area that gets sketchy quick.

 

That said, they will probably end up selling at some point, if I had the money, I would buy a condo in OTR.  Those condos in the NW corner of 15th and Vine sold really fast but they were at a nice price point.  It seems some of these developers, 3CDC included, are reaching too high with their target price.

 

3CDC also sold the condos that were built across the street from Washington Park to an investor who is going to rent them out or AirBNB.  I am sure he probably got them at a bit of a discount too.

I almost feel like parts of OTR need to start off with apartments and graduate to Condos, and these uber expensive townhomes aren't the best way to go especially when you are jumping into an area that gets sketchy quick.

 

That said, they will probably end up selling at some point, if I had the money, I would buy a condo in OTR.  Those condos in the NW corner of 15th and Vine sold really fast but they were at a nice price point.  It seems some of these developers, 3CDC included, are reaching too high with their target price.

 

3CDC also sold the condos that were built across the street from Washington Park to an investor who is going to rent them out or AirBNB.  I am sure he probably got them at a bit of a discount too.

 

Yeah, even though OTR is much improved it's still a very sketchy area, especially at night if your getting near to North of Liberty. Their's no reason to spend 600k on a condo in OTR when you can spend that same money in generally safer neighborhoods like Hyde Park.

 

OTR is currently attracting millennials who have well paying jobs and are able to drop 100-300K on a condo. They are not attracting the wealthy attorneys, doctors and business ceo's. These group of people are still very much living in their enclaves and suburbs.

^The Kruckmeyer didn't actually sell out (NW corner 15th and Vine). They're actually renting them out now and listing like one or two at at time instead of trying to do a full building sell out.

 

No idea how that works with federal regulations on lending to buildings with more than 1/8 of the units not owner-occupied, but that's what they're doing.

^The Kruckmeyer didn't actually sell out (NW corner 15th and Vine). They're actually renting them out now and listing like one or two at at time instead of trying to do a full building sell out.

 

No idea how that works with federal regulations on lending to buildings with more than 1/8 of the units not owner-occupied, but that's what they're doing.

 

If anything over 25% is "commercial" lending is difficult

^The Kruckmeyer didn't actually sell out (NW corner 15th and Vine). They're actually renting them out now and listing like one or two at at time instead of trying to do a full building sell out.

 

Looks like two units are listed for $1500/mo and one for $1800/mo.  I don't know if it's the developer renting them (which I didn't think condo developers could do) or if it's an investor who bought all three. 

 

I am surprised that these units struggled to sell.  $200k was somewhat high for a 1-bedroom condo without onsite parking but the units appear to have pretty traditional designs (unlike some of the early 3CDC condos) and it's a great location. 

 

 

 

There's nothing that would stop the developer from renting out the units they still own, as far as I know. Especially since they control the majority of the HOA, so the HOA won't be making any rules about owners leasing out their units.

There are regulations on federally insured mortgages not being given out to multi-family buildings with more than 1/8 of their units rented out. That's why there's a clause in basically every HOA that states that the maximum number of units rented out is 1/8 rounded down to the nearest unit.

 

I'm curious if the developer did a handover to an HOA or if they still just haven't set one up since so few of them are owned by other parties. They must have set one up so that the monthly dues could be collected by the owners of the units which did close so that it isn't just the developer carrying all of those expenses while the majority of the units are rented out.

 

I wonder what legal situation that puts the owners of the units that did sell in. Because if they have to turn around and sell it's going to be very tough to find someone who can get the money to purchase because of the developer's decision to switch to rentals after they closed. I wonder how all that works.

I wonder how all that works.

 

Obviously it's a mess.  This is one of the risks of buying a condo.  Several of my relatives and other people I know have stumbled into bad situations with their condos due to the reckless activities of others. 

 

 

 

 

That's why I actually read the HOA agreement for my condo before buying. When I learned about those regulations it concerned me until I found we restricted against going beyond that limit in our building. Granted I was the first person to move in so it posed the same risk these people at Kruckmeyer have taken on, but thankfully it worked out in my favor with the turnover to the HOA happening after only like 4 months since units sold so quickly.

 

Condos can be really great for the owners but it all rides on having a really rock solid HOA agreement that protects all parties. This unfortunately also means people looking to invest don't have as many opportunities, but that's a tradeoff I'm willing to take.

How many OTR tattoos do you think are out there in the wild?

This short film appears that it was filmed in summer 2016 but it could have been earlier.  It definitely takes aim at the pedal wagon crowd:

I give it a D-. They stretched about 6 minutes of content into a 16 minute "documentary."

 

These guys are the same people who created those fake 3CDC social media accounts a few years ago and held a fake 3CDC press conference:

 

 

Yawn.

Cincinnati's weirdly conservative (hate change) progressive folks :P

^ It's not just Cincinnati. Every city where the urban core is revitalizing after decades of neglect (which is virtually every US city) has these anti-gentrification types. It's mostly a bunch of privileged white kids angry that more white people are moving into the urban core.

"Pleased" to report that DWELL MAGAZINE (Jan-Feb 2017, pp70-77) just featured a major article on Ryan Santos' OTR restaurant Please.

My sister is the editor-in-chief of Dwell, a Walnut Hills H.S. and UC graduate, I will pass along the kudos!

$1.2 million house is pending on Fifteenth St.:

https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1482014/218-A-W-Fifteenth-St-Cincinnati-OH-45202

 

Looks like almost all of the new houses built in 2016 and early 2017 on Elm or between Elm and Central Parkway are pending or sold.  Only about 3 of about 18 new single-family homes remain on the market.  Meanwhile, 3CDC's turds on Mercer remain unsold after a year. 

Noticed this past week that 3 of the places on Mercer are pending.

$1.2 million house is pending on Fifteenth St.:

https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1482014/218-A-W-Fifteenth-St-Cincinnati-OH-45202

 

Looks like almost all of the new houses built in 2016 and early 2017 on Elm or between Elm and Central Parkway are pending or sold.  Only about 3 of about 18 new single-family homes remain on the market.  Meanwhile, 3CDC's turds on Mercer remain unsold after a year. 

Really - so including the Towne properties townhomes?

$1.2 million house is pending on Fifteenth St.:

https://www.sibcycline.com/Listing/CIN/1482014/218-A-W-Fifteenth-St-Cincinnati-OH-45202

 

Looks like almost all of the new houses built in 2016 and early 2017 on Elm or between Elm and Central Parkway are pending or sold.  Only about 3 of about 18 new single-family homes remain on the market.  Meanwhile, 3CDC's turds on Mercer remain unsold after a year. 

The 15th Street homes were all pre-sold.

 

I thought only one of the Towne homes on Elm was under contract.

^ Looks like one under contract and one sold