Accords were better than Cutlass Supremes, Corollas better than Sunbirds and LS400s better than Continentals. Conservative hubris is what killed Detroit.

Right. The car companies weren't able to grow. The workers only left once their jobs left. Without growth, cities cannot survive. Growth isn't an option.

^^^ I know you're talking about economic growth, but it's funny to read your comment replacing "growth" with "population growth". It reads like you're passionately arguing that water is wet.

^^^ I know you're talking about economic growth, but it's funny to read your comment replacing "growth" with "population growth". It reads like you're passionately arguing that water is wet.

 

Exactly. I don't know how to make this point without sounding facetious. To have to make an argument for the essentialness of economic growth is is like having to make an argument for the essentialness of food and water. How can some Cincinnatians have such delusional fantasies about how the world works that they think they can opt out of it and just decide to not have economic growth?

^^^ I know you're talking about economic growth, but it's funny to read your comment replacing "growth" with "population growth". It reads like you're passionately arguing that water is wet.

 

Exactly. I don't know how to make this point without sounding facetious. To have to make an argument for the essentialness of economic growth is is like having to make an argument for the essentialness of food and water. How can some Cincinnatians have such delusional fantasies about how the world works that they think they can opt out of it and just decide to not have economic growth?

 

What the heck are you even talking about?

^^^ I know you're talking about economic growth, but it's funny to read your comment replacing "growth" with "population growth". It reads like you're passionately arguing that water is wet.

 

Exactly. I don't know how to make this point without sounding facetious. To have to make an argument for the essentialness of economic growth is is like having to make an argument for the essentialness of food and water. How can some Cincinnatians have such delusional fantasies about how the world works that they think they can opt out of it and just decide to not have economic growth?

 

I don't think you are incorrect at all Matthew about needing economic growth to fuel population growth, etc., but I don't think anyone is arguing with you here and I bet if you asked anyone else outside of this forum they would agree there needs to be economic growth to fuel the population and city investment. As mentioned, Cincinnati is one of many of large cities that went through the same exact problem you are describing, in fact I don't really know many cities inside the MidWest and NorthEast which haven't had disinvestment in the city proper including small cities.  Even New York City, Boston, Philadelphia, etc.  In fact Philadelphia is hardly growing population wise and just started to grow.  Columbus is booming faster in Ohio and Indianapolis is booming a bit more but outside of those cities Cincinnati is on par.  In Louisville, as far as anything I know, is growing population but those are in further out areas after they had consolidated city government.  They came out and I believe Hamilton County grew by almost 4,000 people since last year which is a really good sign.

 

https://www.bizjournals.com/cincinnati/news/2018/03/27/greater-cincinnati-s-growth-rate-rises-in-latest.html

1400 Sycamore says Cincinnati doesn't need economic growth. I say Cincinnati needs economic growth. That's my point.

1400 Sycamore says Cincinnati doesn't need economic growth. I say Cincinnati needs economic growth. That's my point.

 

OK I understand after reading backwards, you are correct in that.

3CDC also owns the building next door, 1726 Vine St. Tons of square footage there for development.

This is a good example of property values rising dramatically after the streetcar became full go in 2013.  I am guessing you pay taxes when buying a building on the value you bought it at?

 

Maybe the Enquirer could do a study on property transactions and increase in value of buildings after before and after 2013 and calculate how much more went into city coffers.... oh wait, they would never try to do anything like that...

Yes, the property values eventually adjust, but because of the city's $29 million property tax cap, jumps in one area of town are offset by automatic lower valuations elsewhere.  The schools and the county do get more money, though. 

 

You shouldn't lay down $290k on a vacant building if you don't have concrete financing already in place to rehab the thing and either sell condos or get rent coming in. 

What does he mean by "Lays an egg and hands off to 3cdc?"

 

Dropped the ball.

 

"I never realized how much we rely on idioms."

 

They made money on the property. How's that dropping ball?

^Right, so the redevelopment of OTR lowers tax rates of everyone in the county...  I think a valid argument for the streetcar if they can show those changes from just before to after the streetcar was official

Accords were better than Cutlass Supremes, Corollas better than Sunbirds and LS400s better than Continentals. Conservative hubris is what killed Detroit.

 

Could happen to Cincinnati too if things don't change.  Say some activist investor screws up P&G and then starts wanting to make it a more dynamic company...  Your city is pretty fragile right now, particularly with the leadership it has, the moment the house of cards falls the whole city will fall.  Matthew is writing some great stuff and I hope that's a mentality that gains some strength.

What does he mean by "Lays an egg and hands off to 3cdc?"

 

Dropped the ball.

 

"I never realized how much we rely on idioms."

 

They made money on the property. How's that dropping ball?

 

No they didn't.  They sold for $20,000 more than they bought.  They had to pay property tax while they owned it, plus closing costs, plus tax on their tiny capital gain. 

 

^I haven't lived in Cincinnati since 2009.

Cincinnati is experiencing significant economic growth, especially among small and mid-sized companies.  It's only slightly behind the sunbelt boom towns of Nashville and Charlotte in that regard.  It added 20,000+ jobs in 2017.  P&G only employs 10,000 total in the metro area. 

 

People don't notice all of those warehouses going nuts in Columbus and Cincinnati since you don't have to go to a warehouse or a warehouse part of town unless you work or deliver there.

Comparing P&G in Cincy to the car industry in Detroit is a big reach. 

People don't notice all of those warehouses going nuts in Columbus and Cincinnati since you don't have to go to a warehouse or a warehouse part of town unless you work or deliver there.

 

Yeah the area I work in had tumbleweed blowing through it 2010-2011.  Warehouses and truck terminals were completely empty.  Now people are expanding their buildings and employees are parking on the grass. 

 

If you drive around an industrial park in Ohio you will see a lot of international firms and high-tech companies.  No telling what all of these companies are up to.  You rarely get a glimpse into them through their dock doors. 

 

Cincinnati is experiencing significant economic growth, especially among small and mid-sized companies.  It's only slightly behind the sunbelt boom towns of Nashville and Charlotte in that regard.  It added 20,000+ jobs in 2017.  P&G only employs 10,000 total in the metro area.

 

Good to know, but I wonder about longer term trends. Cincinnati has had a net gain of 50,000 jobs since 2008 while Columbus has gained 150,000 jobs, Nashville 200,000 jobs and Austin 325,000 jobs in the same period. All are similar sized metros. My numbers are from here https://www.bls.gov/eag/. Can you imagine what Cincinnati would be like right now with an additional 100,000 jobs?

What does he mean by "Lays an egg and hands off to 3cdc?"

 

Dropped the ball.

 

"I never realized how much we rely on idioms."

 

They made money on the property. How's that dropping ball?

 

No they didn't.  They sold for $20,000 more than they bought.  They had to pay property tax while they owned it, plus closing costs, plus tax on their tiny capital gain.

 

That's why 3cdc exists...to take on the risks of developing property in the face of the "poverty industry" and the 'street community' that surrounds this building. It is located at the epicenter of OTR's remaining dysfunction. This purchase shows that OTR's issues are not a failure of demand but a failure of supply. OTR can't supply the property that the market demands without the work of removing the chaos and violence of "the community" from the area.

^I think someone upthread mentioned the previous owner tried to make it work but couldn't due to financing. 3CDC now is really good at a couple things: super dilapidated blocks with complicated financing and parking ramps. I'm sure they are trying to pull some more properties together but hopefully move faster on them than they have in other spots. I'm guessing they will eventually look to turn these into offices.

..and he or she couldn't make the financing work as soon as investors actually visited the location and saw the mass of loitering people. It all begins with the efforts of the dealers and the street people to keep others out. It's not a lack of demand for property in OTR.

 

Matthew sorry man but it seems to me like you really love to argue and seriously no one is arguing with you. Literally look at all the property around Findlay Market, none of it redeveloped by 3CDC. Look at 15th and Vine. 3CDC has held that and wouldn't sell that for almost 10 years. 3CDC is a massive organization that can easily tap into the new market tax credits held by banks. I guarantee they will not touch this property to redevelopment for 5 years at least, until developers take it to city council to make 3CDC sell like they did with everything around Findlay Market. 3CDC may kick out the tenants, stabilize, put a new roof and then sell it, but I doubt they will redevelop this anytime soon.

I don't know why you'd be sorry. Just be honest. Everything's better when people say what they think. We aren't disagreeing about what's happening. We're disagreeing about why it's happening. Findlay Market doesn't allow the street people to loiter and deal and that allows the demand for property in the area to be realized.  What people do and why they do it are two different things. Actions don't speak for themselves. It all begins with the street people, not the investors.

Matthew, I don't disagree with you that the Vine property we are talking about here is going to be difficult to figure out how to make it safe and appealing for investors to pour millions of dollars knowing people will want to live and work and frequent there. My thing is that I don't believe at this point so much that a place like Model group or some other smaller investors couldn't do this rehab or rehab in the area of these buildings. I think really what's going to need to happen is a revamp and massive cleanup of Findlay Park where the loitering and dealing seems to concentrate the most and I am certain that will be 3CDC.

 

The other part when you talk about demand is that you are right, the demand is very high, but if the demand was a lot higher then developers wouldn't need tax credits to do these projects which is what they need now. Hopefully the tech scene continues to grow and we get some massive hits on homegrown companies growing quickly like what happened with 84.51. That said, right now it is hard for other developers to do a lot of these rehabs without the backing of tax credits which is why 3CDC is so successful, they just take a long time though they do a great job.

It all begins with the street people, not the investors.

 

A lot of investors seek out the worst parts of town.  That's where the biggest deals often are. 

Alright this tread is getting off topic. Move the conversation about dealers, loiters and gentrification over to the other topic thread.  "Cincinnati: Changing Perceptions of Urban Neighborhoods" Thanks. 

Matthew, I don't disagree with you that the Vine property we are talking about here is going to be difficult to figure out how to make it safe and appealing for investors to pour millions of dollars knowing people will want to live and work and frequent there. My thing is that I don't believe at this point so much that a place like Model group or some other smaller investors couldn't do this rehab or rehab in the area of these buildings. I think really what's going to need to happen is a revamp and massive cleanup of Findlay Park where the loitering and dealing seems to concentrate the most and I am certain that will be 3CDC.

 

The other part when you talk about demand is that you are right, the demand is very high, but if the demand was a lot higher then developers wouldn't need tax credits to do these projects which is what they need now. Hopefully the tech scene continues to grow and we get some massive hits on homegrown companies growing quickly like what happened with 84.51. That said, right now it is hard for other developers to do a lot of these rehabs without the backing of tax credits which is why 3CDC is so successful, they just take a long time though they do a great job.

 

Tax credits are a universal part of the development game now. Butler County gave $30 million to that Liberty Square thing a couple years ago. No commercial development anywhere in metro Cincinnati happens with out credits from local, state, or the national government. You can't hold OTR developers to a standard that no suburban development could meet these days.

It all begins with the street people, not the investors.

 

A lot of investors seek out the worst parts of town.  That's where the biggest deals often are.

 

Really? Who? Where? I'd love to learn more about this.

Can we please limit this topic to "Over-the-Rhine: 3CDC Development and News" please for the love of God!

I've discussed nothing but OTR development here. Maybe this should be called 'OTR Architecture Review." Discussing form without discussing function seems odd to me.

Matthew, I think you are overthinking this. What is it here you are trying to say?

 

Sure, every place in greater Cincinnati gets tax credits, but these areas need more than just the standard credits to fix them up, they need also historical tax credits, otherwise, they wouldn't be affordable for people to live in, you would overshoot demand.

 

Now, if you are saying demand needs to be so high that they won't need historical tax credits, I don't think anyone is arguing that. If demand was to the point where they wouldn't need the credits then rents would be much higher and this whole area would be under construction in 5 years and built out by 10. Something like Amazon would have done the trick, but alas, we aren't there. Though I will say, it is getting much better and development is rolling along faster in the area now than it was 2 years ago with many more developers besides 3CDC

Cincinnati is experiencing significant economic growth, especially among small and mid-sized companies.  It's only slightly behind the sunbelt boom towns of Nashville and Charlotte in that regard.  It added 20,000+ jobs in 2017.  P&G only employs 10,000 total in the metro area.

 

Good to know, but I wonder about longer term trends. Cincinnati has had a net gain of 50,000 jobs since 2008 while Columbus has gained 150,000 jobs, Nashville 200,000 jobs and Austin 325,000 jobs in the same period. All are similar sized metros. My numbers are from here https://www.bls.gov/eag/. Can you imagine what Cincinnati would be like right now with an additional 100,000 jobs?

Take a look at the employment graphs over that time period. Cincinnati employment took a major hit of about -70,000 over two years, Columbus only about -35,000, while Austin was essentially unfazed.

 

The differences in these time series make Austin look, to me, like a completely different economic animal. I'm not sure it's even worth talking about a comparison of "trends", especially with only casual insight into the issues.

The total value of the credits is all that matters, not what they are called or how they are justified. There are no "standard" credits. There is a complex game of negotiation between developers and public authorities. The developers who choose not to invest in OTR turn to Butler county to invest and they also receive tax credits there. You assume that developments in Butler county are less subsidized than in OTR. That may not be true. Butler County paid for all the new infrastructure for Liberty Square in addition to the $30 million in tax credits. We don't know if demand for retail or offices in Butler County is "to the point where they wouldn't need the credits" either because no retail or offices in Butler happen without them today. No place in Cincinnati, or most of America for that matter, has unsubsidized development. We can't know what an unsubsidized free market in property development would look like anywhere, including OTR. OTR may be less subsidized than Butler County development today. The only differences between OTR and Butler County is that there are no street people or poverty industry in Butler County trying to scare away investors and OTR's infrastructure is already there.

Matthew,

 

I can say with pretty much high certainty and I'm sure others could chime in and we could look to old articles, etc and see that the reason OTR is not developing faster isn't because of dealers scaring developers away, it is because it is so damn expensive to renovate these buildings and wages are not high enough in Cincinnati to NOT need massive amounts of credits and government help. If it wasn't so expensive or if wages were much higher everything would get developed very fast and developers would not give a rip about the dealers in the area as they would move somewhere else when the vacant buildings were rebuilt.

I referred to non-farm wage reports, not the labor force numbers that you use. Austin is clearly a very different place. It's virtually a colony of the west coast tech economy and it's pace of growth is something that has to be seen to be believed. Still, Austin shows what's possible for mid-sized metros.

^ I'd say it shows what's possible for 1 (maybe 2) mid-size metro. And if you're not that one, then ...

Wages are apparently not high enough for Butler County to "NOT need massive amounts of credits and government help" either. When Butler County is dangling huge subsidies and free new infrastructure in front of investors, it IS hard to compete. If Butler County wasn't playing that game, money invested there would be available to be invested elsewhere, including in OTR. Investment dollars are fungible. If the net return is faster elsewhere, the money flows there. Existing investment in OTR proves that can be OTR. But, if you add in the very real costs of policing or buying off the dealers, poverty industry, and street people, the finances don't work, as you say. Still, OTR isn't up against all-powerful forces that we must accept. There are choices that Cincinnati can make to change these calculations for investors. One important one is the the people of the streets of OTR.

The only differences between OTR and Butler County is that there are no street people or poverty industry in Butler County trying to scare away investors and OTR's infrastructure is already there.

 

Every time you say "street people" I cringe. 

Matthew,

 

I don't know for certain but I can guess that the cost per residential unit or sq foot of office space in OTR is much higher than Butler County, and I would guess that credits and gov help, etc is much higher in dollar amount per unit or sq foot of office than Butler.

 

You have the opinion that more isn't being invested in OTR because of dealers, etc. I have the opinion that is more because of the extremely high cost. I think we can both agree it's a combo of both and hopefully demand continues to rise in OTR specifically so less and less gov help is needed to bring this neighborhood (upper Vine Street/McMicken) back to life and reduce crime and make the lives of residents actually living there better.

Really? Who? Where? I'd love to learn more about this.

 

The rate of return is usually much higher on lower-income residential.  There is a stigma attached to being a "slumlord", which means there are fewer buyers, which means prices are lower, which means returns are higher. 

 

Suckers like our commander-in-chief and his son-in-law buy and build high-end vanity properties, and as such, they borrow huge sums and overpay.  Then when a recession hits their tenants bail and they're foreclosed on and have to cut deals with organized crime and foreign entities.

 

The LLC who just sold to 3CDC paid too much for the property.  No margin for error.  3CDC has access to cheaper money and has better relationships with contractors. 

The only differences between OTR and Butler County is that there are no street people or poverty industry in Butler County trying to scare away investors and OTR's infrastructure is already there.

 

Every time you say "street people" I cringe.

 

People living desperate existences on the streets may be unpleasant to discuss, but it's part of the reality of OTR. If we can't manage to overcome our genteel sensibilities to acknowledge something of the real world, our discussions here aren't very useful.

Really? Who? Where? I'd love to learn more about this.

 

The rate of return is usually much higher on lower-income residential.  There is a stigma attached to being a "slumlord", which means there are fewer buyers, which means prices are lower, which means returns are higher. 

 

Suckers like our commander-in-chief and his son-in-law buy and build high-end vanity properties, and as such, they borrow huge sums and overpay.  Then when a recession hits their tenants bail and they're foreclosed on and have to cut deals with organized crime and foreign entities.

 

The LLC who just sold to 3CDC paid too much for the property.  No margin for error.  3CDC has access to cheaper money and has better relationships with contractors.

 

Interesting.....

Matthew,

 

I don't know for certain but I can guess that the cost per residential unit or sq foot of office space in OTR is much higher than Butler County, and I would guess that credits and gov help, etc is much higher in dollar amount per unit or sq foot of office than Butler.

 

You have the opinion that more isn't being invested in OTR because of dealers, etc. I have the opinion that is more because of the extremely high cost. I think we can both agree it's a combo of both and hopefully demand continues to rise in OTR specifically so less and less gov help is needed to bring this neighborhood (upper Vine Street/McMicken) back to life and reduce crime and make the lives of residents actually living there better.

 

So people are willing to pay MORE to be in OTR than to be in Butler County. I wonder why. If OTR is "extremely high cost" why has anyone invested anything in OTR at all? The cost of parking and new roads and sewers would have to be included in those calculations to make a more valid comparison, as well. Money isn't being invested in OTR because other places are literally paying investors to invest there instead. It's Butler County that needs learn how to live with "less and less gov help." If Butler County can't figure out how to get investment without throwing credits and free stuff at investors, then IT'S the one with the problem. OTR can remove the 'costs' of crime and poverty and shift the calculations decisively.

Matthew,

 

I think to answer your question it is because of the walkability, historic architecture, proximity to downtown, etc. This is what was always the strength. But starting out at least in the last 15 years they had be tons of help economically from the corporate sector in Cincinnati, City of Cincinnati, Hamilton County, State Historic Credits and National Historic Credits. That job was done by 3CDC and you can check out their website for more information on their roots.

 

Now that the neighborhood is safer and more functional you are seeing a lot of smaller developers on their own and less need for the credits as the demand is higher and people with $ to do the work and live themselves are moving there. The most famous person who I think lives in the hood now is Emilio Estevez. It is compared to parts of Upper West Side architecturally wise.

 

You are right on Butler County. I also think you need to add some things to make OTR more attractive which is: Rebuilding the sidewalks and burying utility lines, fixing Liberty Street to make it narrower and more pedestrian friendly, and fixing up the streets as well, which is another cost.

OTR always had those things. Why did the "corporate sector" suddenly value those things when they hadn't before? The use of credits in OTR was a response to the use of credits by suburban governments before that. Suburbia started the credits game. Since then, suburbia has needed MORE AND MORE credits to keep functioning, not less. You're asking OTR to do what suburbia has never done...pay for itself.  3cdc seems the only explanation. Only an organization committed to OTR as a place could do it. Should all Cincinnati neighborhoods have development corporations? Could it be a model for Butler County instead of handing out money ad hoc as they've done?

1400 Sycamore says Cincinnati doesn't need economic growth. I say Cincinnati needs economic growth. That's my point.

 

I didn't say anything about economic growth.

Now where does the idea come from that "Butler County" has this huge amount of tax credits when compared to 3cdc? It would be reasonable since the former speaker of the House was sitused there, but who says so other than here?